Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

sveumrules

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,922

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    213

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    League average K% for non pitchers is 21% so far this season. There are currently 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line, wRC+ of 100 or greater. Of those 102 qualified batters with a league average batting line 61 also have a K% lower than league average so players who can hit at a league average level or above while striking out less than league average are a relatively rare commodity.
  2. sveumrules
    Looking back at the Brewers yearly splits their outfielders consistently accumulate over 2,000 plate appearances a season. With careful lineup management & inevitable Braun injuries it should be no problem to get four outfielders 500+ plate appearances each. If we open next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana & Phillips in rotation I would actually expect Braun to end up with the fewest PAs of the four just because it seems like even when he's healthy he's hurt.
  3. sveumrules
    This is pretty much where I'm at. Braun, Brinson, Santana with Phillips giving each a day off a week versus righties. That would be 136 games each for the starters & 78 for Maverick assuming perfect health (which we know isn't happening). If that truly ends up being the alignment Brett should have no problem getting 100 starts & around 450-500 PAs with injuries, pinch hitting & games where Braun/Santana DH. I wouldn't actively shop Santana but if some team comes in & blows Stearns away with an offer that includes talented, controllable starting pitching I'd pull the trigger on that & keep Keon instead.
  4. sveumrules
    Entering today the Red Sox (with a DH) have a team wRC+ of 94 & have scored 608 runs, compared to a team wRC+ of 93 for the Brewers (with pitchers hitting) & 587 runs scored for the Crew. On the other side the Red Sox have a 3.67 ERA (facing mostly lineups with 9 actual hitters) compared to a 4.13 ERA for the Brewers (facing mostly lineups with 8 actual hitters). I don't believe the difference between the two teams records has very much to do with the style of offense they employ.
  5. sveumrules
    wRC+, BB% & K% are all stats which are directly influenced by a batter's approach. Digging a little deeper it looks like Aguilar (33.8%) also swings at a much higher rate of pitches outside the strike zone compared to Thames (26.6%). If you prefer Aguilar's approach that is of course your prerogative, but most of the data to this point (both in terms of process & results) seems to favor the approach employed by Thames.
  6. sveumrules
    Before the game today Biloxi Baseball Ambassador Barry Lyons mentioned the Crew would want to limit Burnes workload down the stretch even with the Shuckers in the thick of the playoff race, then he comes out & throws eight strong. Not sure where his pitch count ended up but he was on cruise control most of the game sitting around 92-94 on the scoreboard with at least one 96 in the later innings. If the team thinks everything is in order healthwise I think he could definitely pitch a few September innings.
  7. sveumrules
    You may be sick of Thames approach but coming into tonight's game he had a higher wRC+ than Aguilar while walking more & striking out less. With regards to the Giants, they are a Major League Baseball team that has won numerous games this year, some against teams even better than the Brewers.
  8. sveumrules
    Five innings complete in Biloxi & there is one pretty important thing that Mobile has yet to do.
  9. sveumrules
    Thanks as always Reilly for putting in the time & effort it must take to put this all together. As apparently the lone Lara voter let me offer my reasoning. As others have noted there were plenty of candidates for the final few spots & for me it came down to him still being young & having the highest upside of any of the other candidates for those same last few spots, even if his likelihood of reaching that upside isn't looking so great right now. When he hits 50 bombs for the Brewers in 2020 I can use it as proof of my clearly superior baseball intellect.
  10. sveumrules
    Nelson Anderson Davies Woodruff Hader Suter as 6th starter/longman or bumped to 5 spot if Hader can't throw his secondary offerings for strikes next spring.
  11. sveumrules
    You're right that the metrics have Scooter below average. 24 players have at least 2,500 innings at 2B since Scooter came up in 2013. Of that group Scooter ranks 22nd by DRS & 21st by UZR. In 754 career innings at 2B DRS has Villar at +1 & UZR has him at -3.5. Neither of the publicly available metrics show him to be above average, though they do indicate he is likely better than Gennett, not that it's a very high bar to clear.
  12. sveumrules
    1. Lewis Brinson 2. Josh Hader 3. Keston Hiura 4. Brandon Woodruff 5. Corbin Burnes 6. Luis Ortiz 7. Freddy Peralta 8. Isan Diaz 9. Troy Stokes 10. Trent Clark 11. Maverick Phillips 12. Monte Harrison 13. Lucas Erceg 14. Jacob Gatewood 15. Corey Ray 16. Mauricio Dubon 17. Phil Bickford 18. Tristen Lutz 19. Jacob Nottingham 20. Trey Supak 21. Cody Ponce 22. Jordan Yamamoto 23. Kodi Medeiros 24. Tristan Archer 25. Gilbert Lara
  13. sveumrules
    Lewis Brinson (first 54 MLB PAs) 109/241/283 (523 OPS) Orlando Arcia (first 54 MLB PAs) 184/259/245 (504 OPS) You literally cannot make this stuff up.
  14. sveumrules
    With Braun/Brinson/Santana all being right handed & Phillips being a lefty with the defensive versatility to cover all three OF spots it seems like he could potentially be a perfect compliment as the 4th OF & still get plenty of PAs between spelling everyone & Braun's inevitable injuries.
  15. sveumrules
    I think he's almost got to be injured. Running a 56% ground ball rate this year compared to a 42.5% career average. His free agency will be interesting to watch play out for sure this winter.
  16. sveumrules
    No doubt. Looking back at the last few individual seasons & the two different available arm rankings the difference from top to bottom is normally in the range of 11 to 19 runs per season for LF Arm. So from the best to the worst there is a significant difference. Most players fall within a band of +/- 4 or 5 runs from even (& there's plenty of noise in the measurements to begin with) so for most players the difference is pretty minimal, but with an extreme outlier like Davis (or Cespedes on the other end) I think it has a real & noticeable effect without even looking at the numbers or trying to quantify it.
  17. sveumrules
    I guess it depends on what your definition of minimal is but Khris has registered 3748 innings in LF so far with a -22 Arm per DRS & a -21 Arm per UZR. Yoenis Cespedes has registered 3888 innings in LF over that same time frame with a +27 Arm per DRS & a +22 Arm per UZR. That is about a 5 win swing or about a win per season that can be gained or lost by a LFers arm.
  18. sveumrules
    There are also no guarantees that Blazek will pitch poorly. There is also no way to know that the Brewers assume they will lose tomorrow and as such are punting a spot in the rotation, that is all conjecture on your part.
  19. sveumrules
    Gray & Sabathia have almost identical ERAs, but Sonny's peripherals support his as being legit much more than CC's do. 23.5 K% & 7.5 BB% for Gray compared to 18.9 K% & 9.3 BB% for Sabathia. Sonny also gets more groundballs (56.7% to 50.2%) and gets less hard contact (28.4% to 32.3%). The only area where CC really has him beat is strand rate at 76.9% to 64.6% so far this year. Gray has struggled in this area each of the last two seasons while CC has beat his career average each of the last three years. Could be noise or could be partly explained by skill as some pitchers do have trouble out of the stretch. With less team control & more injury concerns Gray should require less of a return than Quintana so if we could do something like Ray, one of Peralta/Diplan/Supak, and a couple lower level pieces I would go for it. If a deal can't get done without including one of Woodruff/Ortiz/Burnes I'd be out.
  20. sveumrules
    Swarzak was primarily a sinkerballer in Minnesota. He has been strictly four seam/slider since 2015 according to the classification systems.
  21. sveumrules
    Cordell is behind Brinson, Harrison, Ray, Phillips, Clark & Stokes on my personal OF prospect list, but at the same time it'd have been nice to get someone back with either a little more team control or a little more consistent track record of success. Let's hope whatever changes Swarzak has made are for real (the HR/FB% looks especially ripe for regression) & best of luck to Cordell going to an organization that should provide him with more opportunity than he'd get here.
  22. sveumrules
    Kinsler & Verlander may be two of the Tigers best players but when you weigh their current production against their remaining contracts neither player has any real surplus value to speak of, thus shouldn't require much prospect capital in return.
  23. sveumrules
    Excessive strikeouts might be an issue but the Brewers have been top five in opposite field production so far this year & have a more or less league average OPS with 2 strikes.
  24. sveumrules
    Another fangraphs article pushing the idea that Jimmy Nelson is an "ace" with a number of interesting quotes from Nelson... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ace-and-kinesiologist-jimmy-nelson/
  25. sveumrules
    Right now it looks like the only defined roles are Knebel closer & Barnes set up. Drake, Torres & Hughes seem to have been rotated through the 7th inning role based on match ups & availability since Feliz got the heave ho. As far as Hader, I'm fine with them handling him a little more conservatively out of the pen. I'd try to bring him in clean to start innings in game situations where he can go two to three innings, ideally once every three or four days. I personally wouldn't have brought him into that bases loaded situation, but then again I'm just some dude on a message board.
×
×
  • Create New...