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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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I can't imagine Segura having too much value left. Sure he is an adequate defensive shortstop and kinda fast, but over the last two seasons he's been one of the absolute worst batters in MLB. His -41.9 batting runs is 132rd out of 133 qualifiers since the start of 2014.
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In his career Barry Bonds faced 415 pitchers against whom he did not get a base hit. Against those same 415 pitchers he had a .331 OBP.
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Helena suspended for smokey conditions. I'm not even joking when I say that it literally tasted like burning.
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Clark drops a bunt down the third base line for another single, steals second, followed by a Lara walk in their third ABs.
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Clark with another well hit ball in his 2nd AB, this time an opposite field single, while Lara followed up with a ball absolutely smoked up the middle that the pitcher snagged out of midair.
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Clark singled hard up the middle with the bases loaded and Lara followed up with a hard hit single of his own between 3B/SS in their first inning ABs.
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From 2010-15 with the Brewers Gomez was worth 20.1 runs of positive value on the bases, per fangraphs. That is the 33rd best mark over said time frame just above Desmond Jennings, Andrew McCutchen & Jason Kipnis and just below Justin Upton, Jayson Werth & Cameron Maybin. For reference the players who finished closest to 0.0 over the same time frame include Matt Kemp, Chris Davis, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig & Evan Longoria. And the very worst baserunners over said time frame were Billy Butler (-59.2), David Ortiz (-38.6), Prince Fielder (-35.2), Paul Konerko (-34.2) & Aramis Ramirez (-33.8). Of couse baserunning metrics don't come with the same certainty as say OBP, but they are the best we have and far more reliable than the selective memories of individuals who maybe watch half of one team's games in any given season. If you want to say Carlos underachieved on the bases or could have been better on the bases, I agree 100%. To say he was bad or below mediocre is categorically false based on the best information that is publicly available.
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I hate to bring facts to a thread with opinion in the title, but Carlos Gomez is an above average base runner. Sure he made a ton of outs on boneheaded plays, but he also took far more extra bases than an average runner on account of his speed. Add up all the extra bases, and subtract all the stupid outs and he still comes out far ahead because the positives outnumber the negatives. It's like two fielders at the same position, one with 10 errors the other with 20. For years it was assumed the guy with less errors was the better fielder. I mean, how could he not be he has half as many errors?!?! Well, it turns out the guy with 20 errors also turned 40 balls into outs that the guy with 10 errors never even touched. Ok, I'll close the with an opinion, keeping with the spirit of the thread. As much as I enjoyed watching Carlos play with enthusiasm & exuberance, I enjoyed watching and reading about all the feathers it ruffled even more. Oh wait, that's a fact too.
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Clark followed up with another sharply hit 3-1 single in his second AB, this time right up the middle. Lara called out looking on a breaking ball that looked to be off the plate. Will also note that Clark has looked very good both times around the basepaths. -
Clark singled sharply past the third baseman & Lara drove him home with a double to the right center wall on the next pitch in their first Helena ABs.
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So does this mean Cherington will be coming here so he can go head to head with Theo?
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I expect to win by either scoring more runs than the opposing team or by allowing fewer. Any other strategy is pure folly.
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Braun- looking like second half 2014
sveumrules replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
As was pointed out earlier in the thread, with offense trending downward league wide an 850 OPS ain't what it used to be. Along those same lines, 20 million bucks also ain't what it used to be. At this point there are 41 players slated to make 20 million or more for the 2016 season. -
Assuming Lind's option is exercised we've got about 53 million in guaranteed salary for 2016 before arbitration & pre-arb guys. I foresee a sizable contract being offered to Jordan Zimmermann.
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In regards to Kaminsky being (or more likely not being) available for Lind, It's a lot different trading a pitching prospect to a team in another league than it is to one in your own division.
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David Price traded for guy who lives in van down by river.
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Mench was 28 years old. Flores is 23. Not even close. Not mention Cordero was a 31 year closer with one year of control & Wheeler is a 25 year old starter with four years of control.
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This trade reminds me of David Price to DET last deadline. Wheeler is probably a little more highly regarded than Drew Smyly and Flores more or less equals Nick Franklin. Unfortunately it doesn't look like we are getting back a Willy Adames. In that light I think the return is a little soft. Granted elite pitchers always draw a premium at the deadline but the fact that Gomez is over 10 million cheaper than Price was when traded while providing similar value makes me think we should at least be getting a teenage lottery ticket in addition to Wheeler/Flores.
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Jimmy Nelson: Victim of either defense or luck?
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think at this point enough baseball has happened that it's safe to say our bad defense hasn't done our bad pitching any favors. Say what you will about defensive stats but we grade out poorly across the board. 24th in DRS, 23rd in UZR, 27th in defensive efficiency. If you don't like all the new fangled acronyms we're 25th in good old fashioned fielding percentage. At the same time pitching and defense are closely intertwined and our pitchers haven't done the defense any favors by allowing the highest percentage of hard hit balls of all 30 clubs to this point. That said, I would say Nelson has overcome the defense to some extent by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact, which is one of the reasons his ERA and FIP are mostly in line. -
I don't think Parra has too much value, myself. He is still the exact same player we acquired last year for Mitch Haniger (currently posting a 99 wRC+ as a 24 year old in his second trip through AA) and Anthony Banda, only this time the acquiring team only gets him for 1/2 a season instead of 1 1/2 seasons like we did. Lind I think has probably seen his value go up slightly since we acquired him. Still hitting to his norms for the last three seasons while playing the field more often and not experiencing any major health issues. Still not gonna get too much for him I don't think, maybe a younger version of a guy like Estrada. Either a back end type starter in the high minors or maybe a high risk guy in the lower minors if they want to go that route.
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JJ Hardy, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Brett Lawrie and Jonathan Lucroy all came up through the Brewers organization and they play pretty good defense. Reports seem pretty positive on Orlando Arcia. I'm pretty sure when it comes to prospects that the Brewers are not unique in favoring the hit tool over the field tool amongst MLB front offices. The 2013 Brewers outfield ranked 5th in UZR (25.2) and 2nd in DRS (64). Fielders (& innings) included Aoki (1297), Gomez (1242), Schafer (663), Braun (503), Gindl (292) and Davis (265). The 2014 Brewers outfield ranked 10th in UZR (8.5) and 17th in DRS (-1). Fielders (& innings) included Gomez (1269), Braun (1168), Davis (1156), Schafer (285) and Parra (271). At first glance, wow, the Brewers outfield defense performed significantly worse in 2014 than in 2013. Looking closer though, nearly the whole of that difference comes from Gomez 24.4/38 UZR/DRS in 2013 vs. 5.8/2 UZR/DRS in 2014. In 7071 career innings in LF Braun has a UZR/150 of -3.7 compared to -2.6 for Davis over 1765 innings. So, by the numbers, Davis has been a better LF defender than Braun. In his 1555 innings so far in RF Braun has a UZR/150 of -5.7, slighty worse than his numbers in LF. The amount the outfield defense worsened moving Braun to RF to accomodate Davis in LF has been fractional at worst.
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Yesterday Counsell did the competent thing and relieved Broxton with Smith to face Rizzo. It didn't work, he gave up a hit and Chicago tied the game. Luckily, we came back to get the win. Tonight the option wasn't quite as obvious with Smith already used and only Cotts available to face Eaton. We'll never know what might have happened had Counsell brought in Cotts, but clearly Broxton didn't hold the lead. Luckily, we came back to get the win. Sometimes you make the "right" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes you make the "wrong" decision, it either works or doesn't and you either win or lose the game because of it. Sometimes the difference is so marginal there truly is no right or wrong decision. Ahhhh, baseball.
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Interesting quote from Dana Eveland in David Laurila's consistently excellent Sunday Notes column on Fangraphs this week... “After getting drafted, the first place I played was Helena, Montana,” Eveland told me. “Then I was in Beloit, Wisconsin. It’s funny, we always said that with the Brewers, whatever league they were in, they always had the worst possible place you could play. Huntsville, Alabama; High Desert, California. Even Nashville, Tennessee. Nashville is an awesome city, but the stadium was terrible. Every stop was bad. When you got to Miller Park, you felt like were in a castle.”
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What Many Brewers Fans May Think, But Dare Not Say (Yet)
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So what you're saying is the Braves traded Melvin "Bossman Junior" Upton to the Braves for Craig Kimbrel? How did they both end up on the Padres then? -
I remember Carlos Lee getting some boos when he came back to MP after signing that huge deal with the Astros. Never quite understood booing a guy for signing a contract worth about 50 million more than we offered him before the trade but I guess that's why they're called fans (short for fanatics) as opposed to rashes (short for rationals).
