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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    With the current backlog of worthy candidates I'd be strongly against lowering the number of players a writer can vote for or the number of years a player can stay on the ballot. If anything the writers should be able to vote for as many players as they feel are deserving, imposing an arbitrary limit only exasperates the current situation. I also don't think that most of the writers are changing over their vote when they vote for someone in later years that they didn't vote for the first time around. For instance, I think there are 19* players on the ballot in 2017 that deserve to be in the Hall based on the standards established by the players already elected. I would only be able to vote for 10 of those 19 players. If at some point in the future I voted for one of the nine deserving players I left off in 2017, it wouldn't be because my opinion changed on that player it would be because the politics of the balloting system finally allowed me to put that player in my top 10. *Bonds, Clemens, Mussina, Schilling, Bagwell, Walker, Manny, Raines, I-ROD, Edgar, Sheff, Vlad, Sosa, Kent, McGriff, Posada, Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman & Billy Wagner.
  2. sveumrules
    C Angel Salome 1B Brad Nelson 2B Bert Lowry 3B Russell Branyan SS Alcides Escobar LF Dave Krynzel CF Lorenzo Cain RF Nelson Cruz
  3. sveumrules
    I agree 100%. I remember a few years ago Brian Cushing won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and it came out after the season that he popped for PED use during the season. A collective yawn from NFL writers and fans was the response. No stripping of the award. Nothing. If that happened in baseball the PED user would be burned in effigy. Minor quibble, but the best part about the Cushing ROY was that after he whizzed hot the AP decided to revote for the award....and Cushing won the revote too.
  4. sveumrules
    I'm waiting until Russell Branyan and/or Ben Sheets will be there. Would love for Russ to hit a moonshot off of me & would get a real kick out of striking out Sheeter, assuming he wasn't too afraid to get in the box of course.
  5. sveumrules
    The most obvious comp for Lofton is Lou Brock. Lofton played 2,130 games coming to the plate 9,234 times. He batted 299/372/423, which was 9% better than league average during his career. He stole 622 bases while being thrown out 160 times for a 79.5% success rate. He played 17,180 innings in the outfield; 16,740 of which were in centerfield. According to fangraphs he accumulated 62.4 WAR during his career. Brock played 2,616 games coming to the plate 11,235 times. He batted 293/343/410, which was 9% better than league average during his career. He stole 938 bases while being thrown out 307 times for a 75.3% success rate. He played 21,492 innings in the outfield; 18,483 of which were in leftfield. According to fangraphs he accumulated 43.2 WAR during his career. Of course Brock has 3,000 hits and at the time he retired was the career leader in stolen bases, but if he is the standard that speedy outfielders need to meet I think Lofton deserved far more consideration than one year on the ballot. He essentially hit as well as Brock, while being a better fielder at a more difficult defensive position & stealing bases at a more successful rate.
  6. sveumrules
    I've never been to Cooperstown but I'd imagine that Bonds, Rose, Clemens, even Joe Jackson are all represented throughout the numerous exhibits at the museum, they just don't have plaques in the actual Hall. That's fine with me. I don't need someone to be or not to be officially recognized as a Hall of Famer to know they were or weren't one in my mind. If at some point the writers realize they are just as complicit in the existence and proliferation of the "steroid era" (luckily it was just steroids that caused all those records to be broken, expansion and a trend towards smaller ballparks had nothing to do with it) as the players, managers & owners; and Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire and the rest get voted in, that will be fine with me too.
  7. sveumrules
    It's interesting to look back at our four consecutive top ten picks that laid a good chunk of the foundation for the FunRun that lasted from 2005 until about August of 2013. Fielder #7 in 2002, Weeks #2 in 2003, Rogers #5 in 2004 & Braun #5 in 2005. Out of that group you got two elite (in their prime) hitters in Braun & Fielder, one averagish regular with flashes of brilliance in Weeks and a total bust in Rogers. This year we're picking number five with most people likely expecting another top five pick after this year and maybe another top ten pick or two in the seasons following. I guess my only hope is if we do end up as good as the 2002 team this year that the 2017 draft isn't as much of a dud as the 2003 draft was.
  8. sveumrules
    The last person to join the 3,000 hit club that didn't have at least one career hit off of Jamie Moyer was Rod Carew on August 4, 1985.
  9. sveumrules
    I guess I was looking forward to seeing him as a Brewer someday too...five years ago. I know this a thread about Jake maybe being traded to the Cardinals, but let's say he sticks with the Rays through his arbitration years & then chooses to sign with the Cardinals as a free agent. Would that bother you more, less or the same as if he was traded for?
  10. sveumrules
    Just curious why it would "REALLY bother" you if Jake Odorizzi is traded to the Cardinals? For me personally, as someone who has followed Odorizzi's career with some curiosity since the Greinke deal, I'd be really happy for Jake to be traded to the Cardinals as he grew up a very short distance from there and was likely a STL fan growing up.
  11. sveumrules
    Didn't we pass on him in the Rule 5 draft? We did. I'm guessing one of the main reasons he wasn't picked by anyone (besides his limited track record of success) is that he tore his ACL towards the end of the minor league season. I was more throwing his name out there as a possibility for a low cost acquisition with possible upside that is blocked at the major league level.
  12. sveumrules
    Minor quibble, but 10 million of Braun's 5/105 extension was paid in the form of a signing bonus, so the actual terms remaining are 5/95. And his yearly salary never exceeds 19 million even before the deferrals are accounted for. *$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015) *16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout) *price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest) *$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031
  13. sveumrules
    I think it's interesting that you ding Khris Davis so much for his lack of an arm (literally the least important of the 5 tools and also less important than some things which aren't even considered one of the 5 tools like plate discipline, makeup, etc) then write him off as not being a legit hitter because he only offers power, which is one of if not the most important of the 5 tools for a position player to possess. I'd imagine there are a handful of GM's that would prefer Davis to Gordon, even though Gordon is clearly the better player. Gordon is probably going to cost around 20 million a year for the next 5 or so years. Davis will be lucky to crack 20 million total over the next 4 years depending on how arbitration plays out. 32 y/o Gordon at 5/100 vs 28 y/o Davis at 4/25 is hardly a slam dunk one way or another.
  14. sveumrules
    Another guy I was intrigued by was Dean Green in the DET system. Kid can rake and is blocked for the foreseeable future by Miggy/VicMart. Scouting reports seem to indicate he's pretty brutal in the field though and may be a DH only kind of guy, but I can't imagine him being any worse/more comical than Prince at first.
  15. sveumrules
    With Hosmer & Kendrys locked in at 1B & DH for the Royals I'd see what they want for Balbino Fuenmayor.
  16. sveumrules
    Davis has had monthly OPS splits of .683, .914, .799, .734, .758, .579, .699, .865, .620, .867 & .937 the last two seasons. With the average LF producing an OPS of .720 in 2014 & .730 in 2015 I'd say that's 4 good months, 3 better than average months and 4 below average months.
  17. sveumrules
    Lucroy's value is much higher than Frazier's I would imagine. Frazier 2014-15 264/322/479 wRC+ 118 Lucroy 2014-15 287/355/436 wRC+ 117 So you're looking at similar production at the plate, with Frazier offering more power while Lucroy offers more contact/OBP. Looking at other factors Frazier is due 7.5 million this year with one more year of arbitration in 2017 before hitting free agency. Meanwhile Lucroy is under contract for 4 million this year with a 5.25 million option next year before hitting free agency. So he is cheaper and plays a more premium position while offering similar offensive production.
  18. sveumrules
    Not an overly impressive trade looking at those three. None of the three players acquired by the Braves did much to help their stock in 2015, but at the time of the Trade Folty was Houston's 3rd rated prospect by BA (behind Correa & Appel, above Velaszquez & Maverick) & ranked 43/54/59 on the top 100 of BP/MLB/BA. Ruiz was Houston's 8th rated prospect at the time per BA, 2 spots ahead of Josh Hader. He got a 1.85 million dollar overslot signing bonus as a 4th rounder and had put up 115 & 119 wRC+ marks with strong walk rates in A & A+ the two seasons prior while being about 2.5 years younger than league average at each spot. Thurman didn't show up on any lists that I could find but it looks like he was a 2nd round pick pitchability guy the year before the trade. Add it all up and if we can trade Davis for a package that includes a top 50ish MLB ready prospect, another guy in a highly regarded farm's top 10 who has performed 15%-20% better than league average while also being young for his league & taking a good deal of walks, plus a third guy who was a 2nd round pick a year ago I'd probably pull the trigger.
  19. sveumrules
    2,345,678. With all due respects to the "All In" winter before the 2011 season, the last time I was this excited about a Brewers team in the winter was leading up to the 2005 season when it was looking like Weeks & Fielder were both set to debut the following summer. Should be lots of cheap tickets on the secondary market this year.
  20. sveumrules
    No doubt the math is changing, as strikeouts continue to skyrocket contact becomes more scarce and therefore naturally more valuable. The question is, by how much? I think there is definitely marginal value that extreme high contact hitters provide, assuming of course that they have something resembling a league average batting line, but at the end of the day I'm taking the guy with an 800 OPS & 22% K rate over the guy with the 750 OPS & 18% K rate assuming everything else is more or less equal. But now lets say the 750 OPS guy has a K rate of 12% instead, maybe that's enough of a difference to make the 50 point OPS difference a wash. It's a similar link as the one between OBP & speed. Would you rather have a blazer with a 335 OBP or a base clogger with a 350 OBP?
  21. sveumrules
    2013-14 Evan Gattis 253/304/487 2014-15 Khris Davis 245/309/478 Following 2014 Gattis was traded for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman & Mike Foltynewicz. He was going into his age 28 season and had 4 years of team control remaining. Khris Davis is going into his age 28 season and has 4 years of team control remaining.
  22. sveumrules
    So far Middlebrooks has hit 231/274/399 (wRC+ 80) in 1,164 plate appearances. From 2004-2007 Jose Bautista hit 240/329/395 (wRC+ 89) in 1,210 plate appearances. Worst (most likely) case scenario is he is our 3B at AAA, best (extremely unlikely) case scenario he figures it all out and we have an asset of some worth. Seems like a win/win to me for a team that's destined to lose a bunch of games.
  23. sveumrules
    I think the point that jerichoholicninja and JimH5 are trying to make is that if that holds true for the hitter, it should hold true for the pitcher too. Example (fictional numbers): If all pitchers that get 9Ks/9IP average 2.50 RA. Then the inverse is also true of the hitters. Teams hitting against those pitchers will only average 2.5 runs per game (who will also average 9k/9IP). For every run scored by the offense, a pitcher must give it up. For every K made by the pitcher, a batter must give it up. If Ks don't correlate to runs scored by a batter (which I'm in agreement), I'm not sure how they can correlate to runs not scored for the pitcher. The logic doesn't add up there. If there are actual numbers of significant sampling that state it does, I'd like to see that. Here is an article that breaks down why Ks mean different things for pitchers than they do for hitters... http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great-for-pitchers-but-not-that-bad-for-hitters Money quote... "The correlation between K% and wOBA for that same sample of batters is small at r = .12, suggesting that if anything wOBA increases by the slightest margin as K% increases. Not so bad for those hitters. Pitcher's K% has a much stronger correlation to ERA at -.52, however, using a sample of 1071 pitchers from 2002-2012 with at least 150 IP for the season. Clearly, very good for pitchers."
  24. sveumrules
    Of course he's really scraping the bottom of the barrel for names, the team is undertaking a massive rebuild. How is this signing any different than when Melvin picked up Dan Kolb or Brady Clark or Doug Davis or Derrick Turnbow or Casey McGehee or John Axford off the scrap heap and turned them from nothing into MLB contributors?
  25. sveumrules
    While WAR is definitely far from perfect, the components are not weighted equally. There are far more batting runs in play than there are fielding runs than there are baserunning runs. Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of batting runs was +74.3 (Bryce Harper) while the lowest was -30.6 (Chris Ownings). That is a spread of 104.9 runs. Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of runs saved was +30.0 (Kevin Kiermaier) while the lowest was -18.1 (Gerardo Parra, oddly enough). That is a spread of only 48.1 runs. Of the 141 qualifiers last year the highest number of baserunning runs was +8.3 (Mookie Betts) while the lowest was -11.1 (Billy Butler). That is a spread of only 19.4 runs.
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