Cool Hand Lucroy

Agree completely. I don't think the org is trying to HIDE Priester, exactly, but...the guy was really great for us all year. It's fine to give him an opener. And it was fine to pull him in Wrigley. He had a rough go in his first playoff experience in that atmosphere. If that's going to wreck your faith in the guy, though, to the point that you're not going to give him some bulk work in the first two games or three games of this series (and I'm not saying that's what's happening, but something about the team's wavering feels weird), that just means you really don't have enough pitching. If we're going to win a 7-game series on this schedule, Priester has to throw probably at least 8-10 innings, and he has to throw them well. Give him the ball at home. Let Quintana start on the road. Lots of playoff teams have rolled a worse 1, 2, 3 than Priester, Peralta, and Quintana/Myers (or whoever) in an LCS. As I type this, I'm also realizing how impressive/unlikely/strange it was to win a 5-game LDS with our second-best starting pitcher throwing 2/3 of an inning. Mis basically became ace-adjacent to make up for it.

Makes sense. Wouldn't surprise me if they go Koenig-Priester tomorrow, but Q could work too.

Lotta good Cub fans in my life. Living in on the IL/IA border, it's mostly them and the Cards, though more Brewer support recently. This was a really good series, with two very tense, close games, and, when you get so many early runs, you get a lot of innings where one fanbase is feeling a lot of anxiety trying to hold the lead. It's crazy how good Game 5 was and how boring it seems in retrospect compared to the one in Seattle the night before. Puts in perspective what a GREAT divisional round this was. The Blue Jays/Yankees series was the only clunker in the bunch, and even that gave us a great Game 3, with an Aaron Judge homer off the pole turning the whole thing around. Obviously, the Brewers advancing has kept me interested and focused on baseball, and it might bias me. But when you think about having three WC series go all three games and the divisional round we just got? It's been a really, really fine October, with compelling storylines, good matchups, and really, really high-quality baseball. Let's keep it going, however it turns out!

The one skill (other than defense and speed) Lockridge brings is an unreal ability to have long ABs. That could be an asset, but only if you're willing to start him, because taking pitches matters way more in the 1st-5th innings. I'm just not sure that adds up to much. OTOH, Collins saw VERY limited use in the NLDS, even with Chourio's leg. Maybe they are concerned enough about his defense to go with Lockridge. Who knows? Such marginal impacts bottom of the roster. I THINK I'd be inclined to go with 13 pitchers. Subtract Gasser and an OF (because Bauers and Mona can play out there too--I'd probably keep Collins over Lockridge because he can switch hit) and add Myers/Henderson and Hall (depending on health). Not going to be too upset regardless.

I mean, doesn't tying the season series technically give us the tiebreaker? Could be a factor next year 😁.

Some good thoughts here. A lot depends on health (Hall and Henderson more than Woodruff) and roster construction (the Mariners went with 13 pitchers, but with Chourio a little wounded, maybe we don't want to, we'll see). I think the Cubs series was always going to come down to which team could slug. This one feels like it's all about starting pitching. If we can hold down the Dodger advantage there, I think we've got a shot. But we've got to turn a lot of these games into bullpen games, and we need our bullpen to be close to as good as it was in this series. Because of that, I think you gotta take shots at having real starters early, especially with the limited off days and how hard the pen worked to take the NLDS. That's why I'm in on Priester tomorrow. I think that kid'll be hungry for redemption, and he's been awesome all year. If you're going to shy away from your second-best pitcher in Game 1 of the NLCS because he got shelled in one inning in his postseason debut, you didn't trust that guy very much coming in, and you probably don't have enough pitching to advance. For all the tension and all-out effort to get outs over these five games, we've got our two best guys lined up to pitch Games 1 and 2 at home in the NLCS, on regular rest. Roll 'em out there, and if a great offense does its great offense thing, you live with it.

One other that stood out to me is just what a cool customer Vaughn is. His reaction on the home run about as ho-hum as it gets for a middle innings, postseason, go-ahead dinger. And then his post game was humble and appreciative and quietly excited and focused. Player of the season. There's some justice in him getting to GW homer while Civale watches from the losing dugout.

What a win! I actually watched 8 full innings. Went for a walk, came back to a victory celebration. Glad I didn't have to watch Abner fall 2-0 behind to Suzuki. Some thoughts: 1) This was a game decided by the players. Each manager had a call or two that was tough. Murph could've PH for Joey, but that's such a fine margin call. No problem with him sticking with him, and it didn't hurt them. CC had Imanaga warming early, I think for a left on left matchup that never materialized, and then he just didn't feel comfortable with the guy in the game. Maybe that mattered to the Turang AB, maybe not. More than anything, just shows how little trust they had in Shota down the stretch. 2) We pitched great. Even Ashby knuckled down and got the K of Tucker after a shaky start. Good call by Murph to just give him 3 hitters. Abner got some nice BABIP luck and wasn't dominant, but he got six fairly low-stress outs in a stress hell environment. Megill starting proved a good call. 3) Some unsung heroes for me are Durbin and Frelick. On base 5 times between them, stole a base, played good to better than good defense, just really putting in the work. Maybe no direct payoff, but those guys contributed. 4) And we hit 3 homers, including one from a lefty. I was wrong about Yelich. But Turang came through. 5) Obviously, we all want more. But, man, is some of the stress off. Same score as 163, and it's right there as an all-time rivalry win. Feels like we validated something, even to people like me who believe a lot of this is random. I am confident in this: we played well enough to win game. They got some lucky breaks (Yeli's liner in the first, William's scalded double-play, etc.), and so did we (Hoerner's eighth inning line-out feels like the biggest play of the game). It's good to play well and get the right bounces. You need it in October. 6) Plenty of time to discuss the Dodgers. But my early vote is you roll out Priester and Freddy and say let's go. Two best guys all year, at home, and they're on full rest. You never know when these things turn around for a franchise on October. I don't know if they've turned completely for us. But I know you can't win big series without winning games like that. We did it! Let's keep playing good baseball.

Alright my final thoughts. On this day in 2011, I was 25 and basically curled up in a ball all day. I'd like to think I've gained more perspective since then. I'm still anxious, though. Even if I have made peace with losing and do genuinely understand the minimal impact this game will have on my life in two weeks, let alone a year. Her's what I feel good about: I saw a woodpecker again today, coming out of a work thing. First time since morning of Game 2. If you count the Cardinal I saw first time I looked out my window before Game 6 in 2011, ornithomancy has never let me down. Plus, the kid's magic 8 ball (non-Ueck variety, unfortunately) predicted a Brewers win with a straightforward "yes". I also think Yelich is going yard today. It's time for a truly huge postseason hit from him. I feel bad about the fact that I think we will have to get (extra) base hits to win. The Cubs are more likely to walk, I think, and we can lose the game that way. For us, it's gotta be hits. Overall, I don't have a good gut feeling, but my guts have crap for brains. Let's play well and get lucky.

Agree completely. And great point on Frelick. He's had some calls go against him and hit some balls hard on the ground. Fine margins for him. Hopefully it turns the other way tomorrow.

The other side of the coin on this game is that no one ever knows when these things turn around. When the Cubs went down 3-1 in 2016 and Chapman had to hang on for a nailbiter save in Game 5, I'm sure plenty of folks thought here we go again. Same when the Red Sox went down 3-0 in 2004. Not saying it'll happen to us. It might never turn around. But baseball life is long, and I feel like, for once, a win would be more exhilarating than a loss would be deflating. At least from where I sit. I think there are a couple of keys for us, aside from putting up some early zeroes. First is getting Hoerner out. That guy's had a great series, and something I haven't understood very well is why we keep pitching him with hard stuff away and soft stuff down when he's clearly trying to go the other way. Bust that guy in, especially if you get to two strikes. Have to make the adjustment there because him getting on base is so big for them. During our ABs, we've so far done a poor job of balancing between patience and aggression. Game 1 we came out hacking. Games 3 and 4 we took a lot of pitches, probably too many. Game 2 we balanced this well, and that's what we need to do. Sure, make good swing choices, but we have to put good swings on pitches in the zone because Cubs pitchers are attacking. I hope we spend the off day on a lot of scouting and data review. Chourio's injury has hurt our aggression on the basepaths. He's been the only one of our speedy guys to get on base regularly, and his running is obviously impacted. I'm not sure there's much we can do about that. The Cubs have good pickoff moves and have neutralized the running game pretty well. But the biggest issue is that Turang and Frelick haven't been able to get on base. If we don't slug, we need to steal. How our lefties hit seems like the key factor in this one.

Murph is going to decide this by looking into his players eyes and seeing who looks ready. That's only half a joke.

My preferred order for starting pitchers: 1) Uribe. I know. People are going to think this is nuts. But the guy's probably got the best stuff, and he's thrown one inning all series. It's so important for us to put up a zero early. Let's see if he can get six outs. Megill can close. Priester can try to close. Mears, Koenig, we've got options. 2) Patrick. He's pitched well. He's comfortable starting. Run him out there. I'm a little worried about his usage, but it's Game 5, and he gives a good chance at a zero. Heck, a 1-run first would be progress. 3) Miz. Imagine the electricity if he's on his game. Whoa. 4) Priester. Give the kid another shot. He'll be at home, eager to redeem himself. 5) Anyone else. Not sure what Murph will do. But this will be a fun game. Let the better team win, and may it be us.

Of course they are humans. Of course their mental and emotional states matter. It just doesn't follow that their emotional state is "uh-oh, we're toast." Not does it follow that the Cubs players all have an unshakeable mental confidence. EVERYONE is going to be a little tight for Game 5. That's the nature of this. Think of all the times in baseball history teams with momentum have lost. It happened to us last year! I totally get the need to think we're massive underdogs because of self-protection. Baseball playoffs are a stress machine unrivaled in American pro sports (possible exception of NHL OT). But to insist that we're headed for inevitable collapse as objective reality? It's either venting or punditry. And people can vent! But that usually doesn't involve firmly holding the idea that their vented emotion represents Absolute Truth. 10-7 is...59 % in a very small sample, uncontrolled for other variables. Flip 17 coins with your left hand, you might get 10 heads and 7 tails. Doesn't mean anything about it will hold moving forward. And the people who have lots of money and technological sophistication invested in setting correct odds don't seem to agree that the Cubs are now favorites at all. In fact, they're (slightly) plus money, even factoring in the pro-Cubs public. But, look, I can be wrong. So can the sportsbooks. If you really believe your sense of momentum represents an objective reality that people like me don't get, you should bet on it! If you lose, hey, you'll be happy because the Brewers won! If you win, well, maybe that takes some sting out of the loss and vindicates your sense of resignation. I am not trying to be a jerk here. But I think wagering into your sense of resignation is way more productive than doom casting. I have done this myself. I do not appreciate the gambling takeover of sport, but it is useful as a form of emotional insurance. We went up 2-0, I placed a small wager on the Cubs at longish odds. We win, totally worth it. We lose, it's enough to buy pizza and make a charitable donation. At least that way, some good comes from the arbitrary pain we choose to inflict on ourselves by emotionally investing in a sport whose outcome we can't control.

The reason is: statistical variance.

No. Momentum is fake. But this is the great thing about sports books. Cubs are +112 right now. You think momentum is real, there's money out there to be made.

This one's looking like it's over, so time for some thoughts. I haven't read through the whole thread, but I can guess at its general tone. Observations: 1) This was a bad performance all around. Poor pitching, poor defense, very poor hitting. Cubs deserve credit for the way they approached their ABs. Very focused, really making Freddy work, good swing decisions, and Happ hit the big mistake. 2) The hitting is mostly on us. Boyd was throwing that curveball all day, and we couldn't time it up. I thought he left some pitches there for us. We just didn't do anything. The story of Chicago is bad swing decisions and poor situational hitting. Yelich hitting leadoff was weird, but the idea that it costs us very much seems far-fetched to me. Even against a lefty, that's the guy you want up in a big spot. He K'd. What can you do? 3) That fifth inning was obviously the killer. I hate the bunt with Ortiz, especially with the platoon advantage. He hits into a double play, whatever. You take that risk for a chance at an inning that really swings the momentum. That's the one decision I would want back. Did it cost us the game? No. We scored zero runs. Murphy could have been Connie Mack, and we'd still have lost. 4) Really not much else to say or analyze. We stunk. Now, the series gets a fifth game, which was a pretty darn likely scenario coming in. 5) I suspect many in this thread have declared the series over. That's understandable. Self-protection is important, and it's the hope that kills you. But, of course, the series isn't over. We might lose the series, but it'll be because of whatever we do or don't on Saturday. The Cubs did not play their best baseball in Milwaukee. We did not play our best in Chicago. Now we get one more shot, and let's ride the roller coaster one more time. Just look at what's happened to the Phillies the last two years. That's a great team that just hasn't been able to close. It's baseball. Some teams get snake bit in October. Repeatedly! It happened to the Red Sox for a hundred ***** years. 6) Look at the rosters of these teams. It's hard for me to say ours is better. Truthfully, the Cubs seem pretty clearly better. There is no soft landing in that lineup, their current starting rotation goes one deeper than ours, and their bullpen is pretty good (I think we have the advantage there, but that's probably the only spot). they've run the bases better than us this series, I think. If they win, it'll be because they earned it. 7) Game 5, I imagine we start Patrick or Mis. Priester might factor in on his side day, same for Quintana. We'll have everyone ready, and if our guys keep them in the park, I think we win. 8) So far, run differential for the series is +3. Cubs have hit 7 homers to our 4. We need EITHER some big swings on Saturday or inning after inning of sustained pressure. These games turn on weird crap. Hopefully it benefits us.

Alright, final thoughts before I log off and just enjoy the crap out of this electric, pre-game, playoff baseball, fall-in-the-air nervous excitement. Hopefully, I'll be exhausted and happily delirious come tomorrow and able to slowly savor every post from this game thread. I have no idea what is going to happen tonight. I'm neither confident nor terrified. What I know is I thought a sweep would be the most unlikely outcome. In that sense, it feels like this is where the series really begins, despite being 60-75 percent done. We have a starting pitching advantage tonight. Is it a huge one? Probably not, Game 1 results aside. But I think it's there, and I think it's real. We'll have the more rested bullpen. And our bullpen is better than the Cubs in general, I think. Both of those things are good. My favorite Brewers advantage tonight is that Murph's lineup decisions are easy. Vaughn hits. You feel good about Perkins from the right side. Ortiz and Durbin get platoon advantages. My two biggest worries: 1) Yelich, Turang, and Frelick need hits, and will have to collect them against lefties. If they don't, I have a hard time seeing how we score enough. 2) The Cubs can really hit when they want to. I have a feeling they're going to score either 0-2 or 6+ tonight. we can win either kind of game, but I think our most likely outcome is 3-5 runs. I fear the game may turn on late runs, and the Cubs will be the team to get them. How all of that shakes out is, like I said, anyone's guess. Here's what I know. Barring injury or pitcher overuse, what happens tonight will not matter for any potential Game 5. Let's scratch a couple times in the first third and make them play with the pressure on them. Go Brewers, and may we all be celebrating well into tomorrow.

You get three of the four markets in primetime for the whole night, including the Cubs, who are probably the best national draw. Makes sense to me from a TV perspective, even if I'd prefer it the other way around.

Fair enough re: Miz. I thought he was great in Game 2, but also a couple pitches away from things getting dicey (the Happ K on ball 4 was huge for him). I'll be all nerves in a Game 5 either way, so I guess Miz won't add too much if he's in that spot. We could throw 2014 Bumgarner out there, and I'd be a wreck. Peralta vs. Boyd it is, both managers going with the easiest choice to defend to the media and the public. In this case, Peralta is also probably the right call. If I'm CC, I'd have thrown a righty opener. Rolling with our best! Let's give Freddy a real, serious playoff moment tonight. Lots of run support, and let him unleash his best self.

I get this perspective, but I think "only answer" really diminishes some good arguments for a BP game. 1) You've got a fly ball pitcher with the wind blowing out. Doesn't look like it'll be a huge factor but has to be considered. 2) Uribe, Megill, and Mis have pitched once this series. It's Mis side day today anyway. Ashby's on two days off. Plus there's an off day Friday. We're in pretty good shape and won't be blowing out our pen at all, especially since, if we lose, Freddy's starting Game 5. Certainly, the Cubs are going to rely heavily on their best arms tonight, and they used them all yesterday. 3) The only guy I'd really trust in a win-or-go-home scenario is Freddy. You throw him and lose, you live with it. If we're worried about Mis pitching in a hostile environment on his side day tonight (or Gasser getting an inning or two), how worried are we going to be with him coming into a Game 5? I'm NOT arguing it SHOULD be a bullpen game. I think, originally, I leaned that way. Looking at the wind forecast, it does seem like it won't be a huge factor (6 mph, blowing right to left, maybe out toward center as the game goes along), so I'd probably lean Freddy as of this moment. All I'm saying is: It's a genuinely tough call, and people are going to judge the decision based on the results, which is usually unfair. There are lots of factors to consider. All I'm saying is choices like this are why managers and front offices get paid the big bucks. I'm not going to second-guess what we do either way.

Seen some local Chicago and national folks assuming this will be Peralta vs. Boyd, but I'm thinking the Brewers are going to go bullpen. Good arguments for that AND for Peralta. Like every game so far this series, I have NO idea what to expect going in. Seems like one of these games will turn on late runs rather than early ones (I hoped that'd end up the case last night, but no dice). Let's get to the Cubs bullpen arms tonight. We've had lots of chances against them. I'm not afraid of this going 5 (that seemed a likelier than usual outcome coming in), but it'd sure be nice to grab a win at Wrigley. Go Crew! Get Turang and/or Yelich a big RBI hit and I think we win.

Funny thing is, Toronto is like the 5th or 6th biggest market, and it might be even bigger since the Jays are basically Team Canada. I'm kind of rooting for the Dodgers tonight just because I'd rather the Brewers game start at 6. But that may be silly.

Wrote about this in the Game 4 thread, but if it's Boyd, I'll take that as a Brewer fan. Makes Murph's lineup choices ridiculously easy. If I'm CC, I might start Civale (not blue). I think Soroka or a different righty opener (could even see Ben Brown or Palencia) will be the call in the end. More extended reasoning in other thread.

Alright, so the SP decision is legitimately tough. The argument for Freddy is: he's our best pitcher, it's a close out game, and he's on regular rest. Do you really want to mess around? The argument for a bullpen game is: Freddy's a fly ball pitcher with the wind blowing out (it appears), the off day on Friday will make everyone available for Game 5, on reasonable rest even if you lose, and maybe Freddy's better on six days rest rather than 4, since that's closer to his regular season routine. You can probably get 27 outs from some combo of Ashby, Mis (his side day anyway), Megill, Uribe, Koenig (an out or two), Mears (maybe with a clean inning for once), and maybe you throw Gasser or Anderson early. I think I would lean toward BP game, but it's one of those calls where there's no right answer, and everyone will call you a genius if your choice works and a fool if it doesn't. It's why these guys get paid their salaries. I'm not going to worry about it either way. The org's earned some trust on this (and it will be an organizational choice). I'm actually more interested in this from the Cubs perspective. What would you do, @Ryno23? Boyd is the first name that comes to mind, but throwing a lefty just makes Murph's lineup choices SO easy. You start Vaughn at first, Perkins in CF (on his better side of the plate), and feel great about your platoon advantages with Ortiz and Durbin. Hell, you could give Danny Jansen an AB in a big spot early if you really wanted. Plus, Boyd looks Shaun Marcum level fading right now and the Brewers have done a number on him a few times this year. Maybe having 4 days rest helps, but you figure he's only giving you 3-4 innings either way, right? If I'm CC, I'm starting a right-handed opener. Probably Soroka, but I could see Rea too. The real out of the box choice is Civale, which sounds crazy, but the guy has been really good and already twirled against the Brewers in Game 1. He's on full rest and might actually give you a little more length than Boyd. You could perhaps make a similar argument with Ben Brown, though likely for 2 innings instead of 3 or 4. Soroka is probably the easiest choice to defend. But honestly? I'd be real tempted to go with Civale and play to win the game rather than the press conference. As a Brewer fan, if saw Civale starting, I'd immediately think we were going to have zero runs in the 5th inning. That's probably an exaggeration, but I think it would the gutsiest move CC could make. I don't want to see that dude on the mound in Game 4.