Cool Hand Lucroy

https://www.theringer.com/2025/11/10/mlb/emmanuel-clase-luis-ortiz-guardians-mlb-betting-scandal-pitch-fixing A good article from Ben Lindbergh analyzing the recent indictment of two Guardians pitchers on suspicion of pitch-fixing. Lindbergh analyzes the underlying data and reflects on the broader implications of the scandal. There's obviously momentum, given the recent NBA scandal along these same lines, building toward bans and restrictions on player props, especially in contexts like these, where the markets are more easily manipulable. Yesterday, MLB announced an agreement with sportsbooks to limit pitch-specific bets to $200. That's...something? Living in a state with mobile sports betting and having enjoyed (and not enjoyed) the practice on and off for a few years, I'm not a gambling doomer. But I certainly think we need more public education on simple mathematical concepts, on how the vig operates in legal gambling operations, and on how the apps are designed to encourage certain kinds of bad bets and troubling behavior. More than that, I worry about gambling, when it becomes 40-50 percent of an individual's or society's relationship to sport as opposed to 5-10 percent (and you could argue that, today, gambling ads and revenue have a controlling stake in pro sports leagues and media), you get some really icky consequences. Watching a game to see how many rebounds Giannis gets is a weird reason to watch a game. Watching Game 7 of the World Series and caring primarily about one's financial interest reduces the emotional beauty of the event. I don't know what'll happen, and I think it's a complex topic given that the genie's way out of the bottle, but I didn't see a thread, so here's one to open discussion.

We just fundamentally disagree about this. The point of analytics is to find players the market undervalues. That is, the market thinks the player isn't good, but you know he is and so will pay him market rate knowing he's actually worth more. That's exploitative. Look, I'm not writing some anti-capitalist screed here. And William Contreras is not a coal miner. He's being extraordinarily well compensated. But the Brewers entire MO is to mostly operate by getting pre-arb and arb guys who they know will either produce more value than we pay for before they hit FA or will be tempted to sign very team-friendly longer term deals. There are exceptions. You could argue baseball requires the Brewers to operate this way to be any good. And the thread is right in that the CBA controls all of this. I'm not even saying it's WRONG. All I am saying is that it IS, on some level, exploitative, and we would be up in arms about it if a billionaire hospital owner was underpaying or nickel and dining a great union nurse. Same principle, but different emotional valences. I just prefer not to rationalize or dismiss the underlying similarity under the guise of "that's just how it is" or "the Brewers obviously just understand true value better than the rest of MLB." The truth is complicated, and exploitation is one part of it, as it is in many, many industries.

Yes. And I think it's okay to be conflicted about this? I suppose I don't really understand what you're trying to say. Like, being a sports fan is weird. And absurd. And fun. And sometimes kind of gross. The Brewers going to arb with Contreras to save a mil or two makes me feel conflicted and a little gross. Doesn't mean I don't understand it or that I'm naive. I think it's better to talk about the levels of exploitation, big and small, rather than rationalize them away or pretend they don't exist.

Because it would be nice if it weren't this way. Trust me, I understand the reality. But just as with health insurance or soft drinks or tech or cars, it would be nice if $$$$ weren't the determinative factor of everything all the time. The Brewers draw these lines very hard. I'm not saying that's a bad thing. I'm not even that worked up about it. I'm just saying it has consequences, and, while many of them (long-term sustained success while staying young) are awesome, some aren't that great. The whole point of advanced baseball analytics is to pay labor less than you think it's worth in terms of wins. Whatever we think about that (and I am generally a big fan of how the Brewers go about their business), it's got an exploitative element to it.

I agree with this completely. Rubs me the wrong way too. One downside to our organizational approach, just as a fan who likes to think the team treats the players as well as possible, is that we are pretty ruthless when it comes to arby.

Yeah. I get that we play the game hard with arby. But this seems like one where you keep some goodwill and just figure you're going to pay 2 mil more than you should next year. Mark A can afford it. OTOH, Contreras will never sign a long-term deal here. His market will be huge. There's no real practical advantage to avoiding arby. The shrug says it all.

Not starting the runner cost the Jays the series.

And it is Yamamoto already. Wow.

Figure Snell has maybe the tenth in him? Then, I'd have Sasaki ahead of Yamamoto, but I imagine we'll see Yamamoto over Treinen if it gets to 12 or 13.

Geez, how lucky are the Dodgers? Gimenez forgoes a bunt to lace one at Muncy, who makes a look what I found catch. Guerrero just misses leading of the ninth. Little down on the bat, or a little toward left center, and Joe Carter has company.

Between the 9th last night and the 6th tonight, Blue Jays might regret not cashing in some of these baserunners. Door is open for the Dodgers. Kind of feeling like they really need to get Clement home here after the leadoff double.

Is Turang's shoulder going to allow him to play SS? I mean, he took a step back defensively at 2B this year, so I'm just generally skeptical that he moves. There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside in a move when a) you're getting good 2B D, and b) you're counting on him to be a big offensive producer. Honestly, given the options, I think we're better off riding with Ortiz. He's 27. Team control through 2030. Elite defender. Had a very good 2024 (102 OPS+). And the difference between that year and this past one, basically, was that he walked twice as often in 2024. Joey's not that far away. It's going to make people angry, but I think you ride with that this offseason. There just aren't a lot of options that are going to make you much better.

The other thing with Calgary is that it's Coors Light. 3500 ft. above sea level. That's not Mexico City, but it's not nothing either. I don't think MLB would ever consider Calgary or Edmonton. Vancouver just makes way more sense. It's a massive market, has a lot of pro sports experience (MLS, NHL, and NBA), and is a natural travel partner and rival for Seattle, which helps reduce the overall footprint of the league and unfair distance situation they find themselves in. Of course, I'd imagine someplace like Raleigh or Nashville would probably be ahead of Vancouver too, maybe even Monterrey, which is HUGE (5.3 million) and would make MLB the first country to expand major North American pro sports into Latin America. As for the series, the Blue Jays can hit. They've mid in-roads into the Dodgers bullpen, and that's made all the difference.

The Toronto crowd is a joy. Just reveling. I mean, it could all go to heck starting tomorrow, but it's great having an entire country behind one of the teams. If they can't win the Stanley Cup, they kind of deserve a World Series.

Eric Lauer, zombie Brewer.

I do agree that the NL was the superior league. My concern, if I'm a Dodgers fan, is that getting basically perfect pitching for another series is probably unlikely, especially against this offense. So, how does the team react if they go down 2-1? That Phillies series easily could have gone 5 games. It probably should have. I'd be very surprised if this series isn't at Rogers Centre for a Game 6.

Rooting for Guerrero and the Jays. Fun team. Whole country behind it. Should be a fun World Series.

Still have to go through Julio again no matter what. Big Dumper as the potential winning run. Long way to go. Going to be a wild finish in Toronto.

Holy crap, this Game 7. I'm not sure if the bottom of the 7th is an advertisement for not bunting or an endorsement of bunting just to avoid a double play. Springer is having an insane series.

If I'm post-mortem-ing the Dodgers series, the real question lineup wise is just whether you maybe wanted to get Danny Jansen's bat in the lineup. Hoskins wasn't going to be on the roster, and I think it's hindsight to ask for that. It's probably hindsight to ask for Jansen too. But you acquired that guy to hit home runs, and he didn't get a single AB. Especially against Snell in Game 1, you might have been better off sitting Frelick or Yelich, and giving Jansen 2 shots to hit.

Thanks for this! I'd been thinking about the Cubs team too. Hope history does repeat!

Fun season, everyone. A lot of great, great moments. Certainly the most giddy 50-game stretch of my lifetime. This isn't a group we'll forget anytime soon. Not quite 2011 level for me, probably just a touch behind 2018 too. Still. When it comes to wringing every possible win out of a roster, this group tops the list. One of these years, we'll top everyone's. Or we won't, and that's okay too. Baseball's about the stories. This team has given us a lot of them, and I know the franchise has more to say. Time for the annual cycle of trading good players, getting undervalued, and proving the projections wrong. But, first, hockey and basketball seasons. Go Brewers. Undisputed kings of the NL Central.

Who's gonna tell the Dodgers we still won the season series?

I think a salary cap is coming. The union can refuse it all they want (and they may be right in principle), but the owners are going to push, and they aren't the ones who will be hurt by a work stoppage. The best MLBPA can do, I think, is a soft cap/floor ala the NBA. I'm more inclined to side with them by nature, but they just don't really have the cards. I am sure they will publicly be very firm in their total opposition to any kind of cap, but a smart union rep would be backchanneling with MLB to try and float the most advantageous possible salary structure that still allows the league to put out positive competitive balance headlines, and then selling the heck out of that advantageous solution to membership behind closed doors. If MLBPA gets a soft cap/floor? That's a big win for them. I think it's the best they can realistically hope for.

I mean, the entire league is going to be. Like, he did it off three different pitchers, in a 3-0 series, in a game this already 4-0. I am tipping the cap.