Cool Hand Lucroy

Great day of games. Crazy comeback from UNC-Asheville, and the atmosphere at Kennesaw State was awesome. More fun to come!

Well, they're alive. Not pretty in any way, but two wins away from being in good shape. Must beat OSU on Wednesday, as others have said, which, believe it or not, is a Q2 game. If they do that, I think they'd be in. At least, I'd put them at better than 50-50, which is a long way from safe. Two wins at the tournament, and you'd feel pretty good.

Watched a lot of the Youngstown game. Looks like they are playing with a ton of pressure. UWM looked great. Came out with something to prove.

Klesmit has been very good lately.

Yeah, I haven't watched much of Milwaukee this year, but I'll be rooting for them. I'm a little surprised to see they're underdogs. I see KenPom has them as the 2nd "luckiest" team in the country (though I have no idea about the ins and outs of that methodology) and Wright State as 30 or so spots better per possession, but I'd think homecourt in a tournament environment would tip the scales. I also see Wright State swept them this year, so.... MVC tournament tips today too, and that's always one of the best...first year without Loyola in that league, and Drake, Bradley, and a few others (Indiana St., Southern Ill, maybe even Belmont) all look capable of potentially winning a game as a 13-14 seed.

Great idea. Love the small conference tournaments, and the Big East will be so, so fun too. The Horizon seems to have suffered quite a bit from conference realignment (losing Butler and Loyola), and other programs haven't really been able to take the next step or keep up. Should be a wide open tournament. The A-10 is down, but that'll be great too. Lots of pretty good teams competing for one bid (in all likelihood).

Yeah, this makes sense. Really, it's the 1-and-1 that gets me. Making them have to deal with that extra pressure seems worth it. We'll see how they bounce back. Big opportunity Thursday.

A game I expected to lose coming in but....one I'm still stewing over an hour later. Toughest one of the season for me because of the opponent and circumstances and stakes. We will see how this team responds. At this point, I just might be content rooting against Michigan. If anyone sees Gard's explanation for the last moments....ugh. I just don't see any reason to not make them make a 1-and-1.

So: You have to foul up three there. I know Gard hates that, but it's a one-and-one. I just can't think of a reason why you don't. Honestly, you could even foul on the inbound with 2.0 seconds left. Just disagree with Gard on that one. Obviously, this team is better with Chuckie. I hope he is okay. BUT the offense was more fluid after he went out. Maybe something about not deferring to him quite so much. Klesmit especially really played his tail off, both ends of the floor. Essegian and Wahl great games too, and McGee was organized and did everything he was supposed to. I really dislike Michigan, but this has been a great basketball game. I am kind of feeling like it ends in a loss right now (down 3 as I type). It will sting because a sweep would have really separated these two teams.

Jumping in on a few things:. Big Picture: I think the one-time transfer waiver has actually helped Bucky more than it's hurt. The really hard jobs these days are probably Dayton or VCU or Drake--really good programs in good conferences that used to really benefit from putting together a core group of players who aged together. Wisconsin can pick off guys like Klesmit (Wofford--another program that turned a strong core into an NCAA win and nearly a Sweet 16 in recent years), even if they lose other guys too. Gard is a good coach. Wisconsin, as a team, has missed the tournament once in what? 25 years? And during a total reset year too. Gard was a big part of that, if not as head coach, then certainly as Bo's top guy. The big question is how well he'll adapt to the game's ongoing transfer, NIL revolution. He gets okay marks from me on the transfer side. If you told me Gard was going to coach for the next decade, I'd be happy about that. See Minnesota for what happens when a solid coach (Tubby) gets run out of town because fans think the team needs to be doing better than consistent tournament presence. I still think the Badgers are in better than you think shape resume-wise. The Nebraska/Rutgers losses sting (perhaps the Nebraska one more so given the circumstances), but some good toughness shown in beating Michigan and Iowa. The game-by-game: Purdue and Michigan present massive opportunities. Minnesota is a trap, all-pressure, no-reward game. I think Wisconsin needs 2 of 3 to feel pretty darn good. If you only get the Minnesota game, you're probably going to need a BTT win or two. Impressed by McGee's recent minutes. Badgers need him to deliver some quality to spell Chuckie. As others have said, same goes for Jordan Davis. I'll end with this: Rooting for Iowa is probably even more annoying than rooting for Wisconsin, despite the fact the team is (I think pretty clearly) more talented. Just totally unable to get stops, especially on the road, a real Fran calling card. Badgers get this first quality, double-digit win of the year and jump 6 spots in the NET, adding Q1 wins for all those teams that have won at the Kohl.

Catching up on some of this, and on board with most of it. The shift rule, though....ew. Let me rephrase. It makes me feel really icky while I recognize it's probably necessary to do SOMETHING. Hitters have had plenty of time to adjust, and it hasn't happened. So, my conflict: I had the idea of reducing the freedom of the game. It's one of the things I love about baseball. Sure, the pitch clock does this in some sense, but it seems much more tailored to cutting on down on the rude kind of selfish freedom that no one likes (basically just delaying the game out of personal preference). The shift actually restricts player movement, at least pre-pitch. We'll see how many pitches have infielders scrambling to reposition once the ball leaves the pitchers hand---that might be a little bit fun. Basically, I just wish there was a way to avoid imposing rigid boundaries on fielders. Seems against the spirit of the game in ways that make me squirm. The bigger issue is: it seems to cut against the goal of reducing game time by quite a bit? I mean, I guess it encourages balls in play, but the "penalty" is weird--take the result of the play or make the pitch a ball? I hate that. Why not just make it "result of the play, or everyone, batter included, advances one base? Even if you got situations where, like, I don't know, the defensive team shifted illegally, resulting in the batter making an out, but a runner scored from first on an ensuing bad throw, the offensive team would have a decision to make (like the NFL: do we take the holding call on 3rd and 4 after an incomplete pass?). The "add a ball" just seems dumb. Anyway. On board with most of the rest of it.

I mean....this is true, though. Look, I get it. The Badgers aren't that good. They're wildly inconsistent, and their offense is downright bad. BUT here's the thing: the NCAA tournament committee is not watching them night in and night out and tracking every possession. The big things the committee sees are Q1 wins, bad losses, and road/neutral record. By those metrics, the Badgers are in better shape than they have any right to be. Of course, at some point, loss volume becomes a deal breaker. I think 4-2 with a tourney win gets them in. We'll see. It's an average team that plays a ton of close games and can't shoot free throws. But that's college hoops. Get hot for the right ten game stretch, and you're among the "best" 16 teams in the sport.

I think it hurts (or cancels out) that they haven't played much better since Wahl's return. Maybe a team like Creighton, who went like 0-6 while its best player had mono and is now one of the hottest teams in the country since his return, gets an injury consideration. Usually, if I remember, health impacts seeding but not the binary "in-or-out" decision. I guess it also works the other way with Wisconsin too--the win at Iowa was a Keegan-Murray-less win. Teams without bad losses and a 6-6 Q1 record are just usually in really safe territory. A lot can happen between now and then, and we're still in that weird, transitional moment where you never know how much the committee, as a whole, is going to value predictive vs results-based metrics, but, if I could place a futures wager on Wisconsin qualifying for the NCAAT, at a little better than even money (which is what it looks like that would be based on Bracket Matrix), I think I'd get good value there.

I guess, rather than expansion, I'm more interested in stoking fan interest (which is what drives revenue--the NFL is top dog not necessarily because people like football, though of course they do, but because it's basically at the center of the national conversation) by figuring out ways to sustain it over the length of the season. Rather than teams having "no hope of winning anything," I'd like to see a soccer-style model (I know it'll never happen, but I think it's more enjoyable from a fan perspective, even if that makes me weird). Basically, MLB operates in conjunction with MiLB, and the top-level has 20-24 teams every yeah. Worst ones drop down a league. This rewards teams like the Brewers (who everyone acknowledges are playing a financially unfair game) for simply staying up. More importantly, you add competitions. So, MLB plays regular league games, maybe regional tournaments, maybe all short-series playoff-style competitions. You've got such a massive inventory schedule, why not allow for teams who are doing poorly in league play to have a chance to win a secondary trophy of some kind. Honestly, if any American sport is suited to that kind of model, it's baseball. Let those Miami Marlin, 10-game hot streaks potentially mean something rather than them simply spoiling other fans' seasons or providing moments of respite in an otherwise bleak year.

Yeah, the Badgers are shaping up to have a weird, weird resume. Home losses but road wins. NET in the 70s, but 6-6 in Quad 1. All losses in the top 2 quadrants. I'm actually pretty surprised they aren't in Last 4 In/Last 4 Byes territory in most of the prognostications. 6 Q1 wins is so, so many, and there just aren't bad losses, really. They've lost games by big margins and almost never win by big margins, so the computer numbers are bad, but the NCAA committee usually cares a lot more about your opponents' NET than your own. Basically, I think the national bracketology brigade is missing something. Obviously, team is on the edge, but I'd have them much closer to the field than they currently are, even at Bracket Matrix.

MLS, funnily enough, is getting quite a bit of blowback for this (or, at least, a lot of skepticism). The thinking is: Why would people fork over $15/month (basically the cost of Peacock, Paramount+, and one-third of Hulu/ESPN+/Disney+) for a worse version of a product available elsewhere and for less money. Obviously, MLB is the top league of its kind, so that argument doesn't really apply, but there is concern from the soccer folks I know about just how much the sport's broadcasting rights are getting fractured. To be a soccer fan is to have to make a lot of conscious choices about which leagues you care about and how much you're willing to pay for them. Again, not saying MLB has a better system. Not at all. Those blackouts and the issues others have brought up about Bally's and its weird regionalism is ridiculous. Regional borders mean less than ever in a sporting context, so MLB's stubborn refusal to admit that its a global world (nevermind a national one) is just strange. Let's hope things change soon.

I haven't stopped thinking about this Final since it ended. Literally spacing out while my wife and kid look at me quizzically. Unreal. Has there ever been a better sporting event? I realize I sound hyperbolic, but I cannot think of anything that was played a) at such a high level, b) with so much at stake for individual players, and c) in front of a massive global audience and with such significant social and cultural implications. That was rare. That was beautiful. That was a moment when sport became sublime art, and I feel lucky to have seen it.

What Messi and Alvarez did was a complete clinic. What an incredible performance from Argentina. Just absolutely shredded an incredible, cohesive team. Whatever matchup we get in the final will be completely epic. Either it's Argentina-France in a real heavyweight battle (Messi vs. Mbappe, France going for a repeat, etc.) or Argentina-Morocco in a battle of emotional favorites. I'd like to see Morocco-Argentina just for the atmosphere. Those two teams appear to have drawn the most crowd support, so that atmosphere would be incredible.

That was just a massive win, capped off with typical toughness. Made 3s in OT. Iowa really didn't (I think somebody hit one). Makes all the difference. Wahl can't go 0 for 2 from the line late in games.

Today's QF matches were incredible. So much drama and emotion. That Dutch free kick? Incredible. Messi's pass? Wow. Hope tomorrow's games are just as good.

Man, was Chucky incredible. And that bucket from Klismet was really tough. A strong finish. Badgers are gonna lose some games they shouldn't (see Wake), but they'll win enough to get a decent seed.

I think, honestly, a big problem is the same thing most women's sports have to deal with. There's plenty of media coverage and attention and focus around big events like the World Cups and the Olympics. But the day-to-day media coverage and fan involvement is just not there (I think that's changing for women's soccer and maybe a few other sports, which is good!), and that makes it very hard to sustain success and build real momentum on the international level. US soccer faces real fan pressure once every four years. I think that has to change heading in to this next cycle. You just have to make the right choice with the manager. It's so, so important to get that right. Tactics matter so much in a situation where every game means as much as it does. Jurgen had those tactics, but he was culturally clueless (though I wonder if he would've meshed better with this player group). Bob Bradley was good enough at both. It's really hard to find a good international manager, and US Soccer has problems at the upper levels of the org too, but you can make up for a lot by getting this choice right.

US, as a team, had run a marathon more than the Dutch coming in to this match. I thought that showed. The defending was bad. Adams jogging and trailing on the first goal and no one coming up to cover Memphis. 2nd goal Dest completely fell asleep. Inexcusable that close to half and, again, the defense reacts poorly to a quick throw in. 3rd goal, I could have scored with that much space for that much time. The finishing, as others have said, bad. Wright scired accidentally but looked real slow and non-threatening. Ferreira was totally uninvolved. Midfield was okay, just not superhuman like it has been. That makes all the difference. I think, with this group, the US needs to learn to play without a true striker. Aaronson and Reyna are just better players by a longshot than any of Pefok, Pepi, Ferreira, Wright, etc., and that really hurts you against teams like the Netherlands. Set pieces also were bad. Pulisic is great, but he cannot be taking corners and free kicks that often. He didn't really play a good one all tournament. Wth the right coach, 2026 could be special, but Gregg ain't the guy. He was a steady hand and deflected a lot of criticism for a young player pool. Job done there. He did the bare minimum to consider this cycle a success. Good job. I mean that. But it's time for someone who is more tactically sophisticated and more experienced in Europe. Marsch is the obvious name, but I highly doubt he leaves Leeds. I honestly think you could do a lot worse than Australia's manager. I know US soccer is down on foreign managers after Jurgen, but this is the most diverse and global the player pool has ever been...I go outside if it's my choice. World Cups are often random and influenced by small samples and c., but I'd say anything less than a QF appearance in 2026 would be a disappointing result.

Should be another wild window tomorrow afternoon with everyone having it all to play for in Spain's group. Belgium-Croatia could be fun as well.

TV ratings show 20 million for USA/England (Fox and Telemundo). That's what the NFL does weekly. Not sure if that's impressive or not, honestly. The NFL is such a monster that it's nice to see soccer getting that number. On the other hand, that's like a Week 7 game for an event that comes once every four years, in a great time window (not up against football), on a holiday, against maybe the best opponent imaginable. So.... Should the US win, they'll go up against the Netherlands (probably) on Saturday, 9am, prior to CFB kickoffs. That number might tell us more...hope we get a chance to see it.