Jose Cardenal1

Man did I use to love watching Sheets throw his curve.

Interesting point. The Brewers went with slot to slightly under-slot guys last night. Maybe the plan will be to take a couple tough sign/over slot HS guys in the 3-6 range and then fill out the rest of the top 10 rounds with under slot college guys.

Agree about Grant Holmes. That is the guy I would want in a Dodgers trade. Started the season ranked at about the same spot as J.Hader. Only 20yrs old and pitching well in A+ ball. Having him, Hader and Jimmy Nelson as the top 3 starters by mid-2018 is a pretty good start for a winning rotation.

"Blue Horseshoe Loves..." (please tell me someone gets the reference). [/b] "This is the kid, calls me 59 days in a row, wants to be a player. There ought to be a picture of you in the dictionary under persistence kid." As for me, I was never in love with any of the top guys, partly because nobody can sort them out. Also the longer the lead up to the draft the more time to look at the warts which is natural and something I imagine is hard for people who actually get paid to evaluate players. That is why I would lean towards picking a guy not currently in the top 10 (Collins, Lowe, Wentz, Garrett) and save some money for a tough sign or two from rds 2-4. In any event the only guys I would complain about are Ray & Senzel because the ceilings are not high enough and Perez because his floor is too low.

The Lind trade brought back 3 19yr olds one of which was Seattle's 15th ranked (BA) prospect. I think Carter has more worth in the sense that he can still be under team control past this year. Given that what about asking the Mets for: Ali Sanchez C 19yrs old MLB ranks as Mets 15th prospect Thomas Szapucki LHP 19yrs old (5th rd. 2015) MLB ranks as Mets 18th prospect So 2 ranked prospects vs. 3 prospects with 1 ranked. For us it is 2 lottery tickets. For the Mets it is giving up two guys that are still a long ways from helping them. Seems like a very Stearns kind of trade.

I said this in the thread the last time Hader pitched. I don't think he will be promoted until his pitch limit is bumped to 100+. Hader will likely struggle (not necessarily a bad thing) at Colorado Springs and if he isn't allowed to throw more than 90 pitches (89 is his top so far this year) he may have many starts that don't get through the 5th. That wouldn't be good for his development or the AAA club.

He (Jungmann) has been really bad for a long time now. Don't think he will ever be a quality major league starter. 21 Starts, 119IP, 3.77 ERA, 9-8 W-L, 1.5 WAR Do people remember that Jungmann pitched pretty decent in the bigs last year? Maybe it was an illusion and he will never come close to that again but you have to admit for a fleeting few months he looked like a solid ML Starter. With the way the tires have come off for him this year I would expect to hear about a shoulder or elbow issue soon.

Excellent post Reilly. Even though it doesn't make me feel good about the chances of getting a true ace.

You said you were leery on Puk because of the Brewers history with College arms. I used actual history (20 years worth!, wanted a better sample size) to make the point that the Brewers have sucked taking P's whether it was College or HS at the top of the draft. They have been an equal opportunity offender. To compare who to take at 5 this year with who we took at 26, 35, & 47 (Arnett, Fredrickson & Heckathorn) seemed to be a stretch. I suppose a better comparison would be what P's the Brewers have taken in the top 10. That would be Sheets and Rogers.

Due to all the issues the Brewers have had with college arms at the top of the draft, I'm a little preconditioned to be leery of Puk. So your saying the Brewers have had better success with HS arms in the 1st rd? Listen I understand the reluctance of a college arm, but some of those bad picks we think about were late 1st rd or Supplemental Rd picks (Arnett, Heckathorn, Fredrickson). Here is a complete list of pitchers drafted in the top 16 picks by the Brewers in the last 20 years: K.Petersen (13) - College - Bust J.M. Gold (13) - HS - Bust B.Sheets (10) - College - Great pick M.Jones (12) - HS - Bust M.Rogers (5) - HS - Bust J.Jeffries (16) - HS - Success but in Bullpen not a starter D.Covey (14) - HS - Never signed T.Jungman (12) - College - Not good but still has a chance to contribute J.Bradley (15) - College - Bust (but technically could still make it as reliever) K.Mederios (12) - HS - Jury still out So, College one great pick out of 4. HS one good pick (and one yet to see) out of 5 or 6 depending on if you count Covey. You can make the argument that the Brewers should never take a P high in the draft based on the past but you cant say that they should only avoid College P's.

Not sure I am really enamored with any particular player at this point. So I would lean towards taking Dakota Hudson as a slight under slot (rated #10 by BA and MLB) and take a couple of tough sign guys later. Hudson may not be a sexy pick but looks like he could be a Jimmy Nelson like bulldog starter who could reach the big leagues by 2019. To me a draft of Hudson #1 and then 3 HS Pitchers (where the strength of this draft lies) in rounds 2, 2s, & 3 would be ideal for the Brewers.

I agree with TheCrew07 regarding Hader. While he is dominating AA pitching so far, he also has yet to go past 6IP. He also really hasn't stretched his arm out. He has made 8 starts and his low pitch count was 83 and his high pitch count was 89. In April he had trouble getting through 5IP but in May he has been more efficient and is getting through 6IP. Still at some point the Brewers will need to allow him to up his pitch count at least in the 90-100 range. I am fine with the Brewers leaving him in AA until he gets at least a few starts that approach 100-105 pitches and then spend the second half of the season trying to figure out AAA/Colorado Springs. As an aside I am looking forward to Josh pitching in the Futures Game this summer.

Taking Werth back means Washington is getting him for free for 1.5 yrs. and then either 3 more years at $57 or 4 yrs at $68 Another way to look at it is by taking Werth back the Nationals are getting Braun for '17-'20 (assume $4 buyout for '21) at $55 or $13.75/yr. ($76 million owed Braun minus $21 owed Werth). Teams would be falling all over themselves if they could sign Ryan Braun after this year to a 4 year $55 contract with the option of it being a 5 yr $66 contract. If that is still not enough to get a V.Robles plus other good pieces then the Brewers should pick up a little more of the contract themselves. A trade involving Braun has to bring back a true potential star or it is not worth doing.

I still think Washington makes a ton of sense. Send Braun and take back Werth's bad contract (it only runs through '17). That should really be worth a good haul back from the Nationals. Say V. Robles, E. Fedde & either Pedro Severino or Koda Glover. Big upgrade for Nationals without costing either of their top two prospects. Also ensures they have a middle of the order bat if/when Harper leaves via free agency. For the Brewers that would be 2 top 100 prospects (Robles looks like he will be top 25 by the end of the year) and a catcher with superior defensive abilities (Severino) or a very hard throwing bullpen prospect (Glover) who looks like 8th inning set up man is his floor, dominant closer obviously being his ceiling. Enough of a return? Too much? Would only get one SP back in that deal (and one that is struggling so far) but hopefully a Lucroy trade would also net at least one significant SP prospect along with a couple lottery ticket P prospects.

First, Washington would be taking on more in salary for '16 & '17 (and thereafter) than we would taking Werth's contract. Second and more importantly is that having the ability to take on a bad contract is an asset that the Brewers have right now and for the next couple years. I am not saying they should take on a bad contract, only that it is a tool in the shed that not all teams have. It would be a mistake to dismiss it. A trade like I mention has about a .01% chance of happening but the bigger point is the Brewers can and should get very creative to facilitate acquiring the players they want (not just the ones other teams are willing to give up).

How about a Pie in the Sky trade. R.Braun and J.Lucroy to Nationals for J.Werth (and his bad contract $21/year through '17) L.Giolito T.Turner V.Robles Yes that is their top 3 prospects and each a top 100 prospects. But your giving up two big time players and taking a bad contract back. Added bonus: The addition of Braun and Lucroy to the Nationals should make them a really big obstacle for the Cubs the next couple years.

I doubt Lopez is a September call-up. He will likely already have 150IP (a career high) and it probably isn't wise to add more to that total. That is something to watch also with T.Jungman and Jimmy Nelson. If Lohse is not traded/waived you may actually see him start a couple games at the end of the season to avoid putting to many innings on the young(er) arms.

Much has been made of the dearth of 1b and 3b prospects in the organization. And rightly so. What isn't talked about much is the dearth of C prospects too. I love seeing the production Carlos Leal is having in A ball but outside of him there is nothing, and to put all your eggs in the Leal basket is not wise at this point. It sure feels like the organization has accepted that a tear down/rebuild needs to occur and thus we will see more trades of assets for prospects with the idea of competing in 2018 at the earliest (2016 will be a really awful year, 2017 will at least be interesting as many prospects will be starting by then). Lucroy will be a free agent after 2017 and more than likely be traded well before then (his comments yesterday felt like a not so subtle hint to the Brewers that he didn't want to be here to witness the dumpster fire the next two years. I am sure Braun feels the same way but he got his contract and is smart enough to know to shut up). So with that said I think the Brewers need to identify the best Catching prospects in the minors now and make them a target to aquire in a trade. Who is that? I've said on another thread that I like C.Sisco in the Oriole organization. There are a few others: G.Sanchez (NYY), M.Pentacost (Tor), J.O'Connor (Rays), J.Alfarao (Phi), A.Susac (SF). I am sure I am missing a couple but the point is there isn't many and even less when you consider the Phillies are rebuilding also and the Rays don't trade away prospects. Do you agree with me that acquiring a C is now a top priority and if so who do you target?

Besides Baltimore being the only team left to have serious interest in Parra they also had another fallback option in Revere who would have been under control for 3 more years. This is why the return was only Davies who looks to be a replacement for Fiers (soft tossing end of rotation starter). Like I said before I would have tried to add assets to the trade to get Sisco too but all in all I am OK with this. As for those thinking that keeping Parra, giving him a QO and obtaining a 1s pick would have been better... you have to take $$ into cosideration too. Cost to keep Parra 2 more months and cost to sign a 1s pick means the cost for that prospect would be over $3 million, while Davies is free.

Here is the drawback of moving Braun to 1B in the future. He is not a lefty. Not that a righty can't play 1b, but the Brewers have been notoriously deficient on LH bats and 1b is a (the) prime spot to field a LH. This is one of the reasons why I am so happy with the addition of Brett Phillips (he is a lefty). Two things that have always bothered me about Melvin is his disregard for OBP in favor of Power and no urgency to even out the order with LH bats. I feel like we may be turning the corner a little with the addition of Phillips and Trent Clark this summer.

Colby I agree with your comment that it is a tough decision to choose between a supplemental first round pick and a pretty good but not great prospect like Davies. But in this case that would assume the Brewers would feel comfortable giving Parra a QO. That is the first question to ask and one I don't think the Brewers would do. In response to the addtion by subtraction comments (i.e. adding a Broxton to the trade) I am of the opposite camp. Add additional good pieces from our end to pick up better/more prospects. Treat the Broxton money as a sunk cost. The payroll in '16 is going to be much lower (no Lohse, Parra, Gomez, ARam) so even with lower attendance the Brewers should make money. I would love to add Chase Sisco in a Baltimore trade. I would add pieces to the trade to get him too.

I've thought about this too. It would make sense at some point to move hime to 1b. This assumes: 1) The OF prospects are ready 2) Ryan is still with the team at that point Ultimately I believe that Braun will be traded either at this point next year or in the 16-17 winter.

1. Orlando Arcia 2. Clint Coulter 3. Gilbert Lara 4. Kodi Mederios 5. Taylor Jungman 6. Tyrone Taylor 7. Michael Reed 8. Tyler Wagner 9. Jorge Lopez 10. Trent Clark 11. Marcos Diplan 12. Jacob Gatewood 13. Devin Williams 14. Corey Knebel 15. Monte Harrison 16. Nathan Kirby 17. Cody Ponce 18. Victor Roache 19. Cy Sneed 20. Carlos Leal 21. Tyler Cravy 22. Nick Ramirez 23. Yadiel Riveria 24. Damien Magnifico 25. Troy Stokes It is not a bad prospect list, lots of guys who should play in the Majors but still short on elite prospects. Hopefully we can add at least one elite prospect in a Gomez trade and then another with a top 5 pick in next years draft, but by then Arcia will be in the bigs so it still will not be a really loaded list. T-Rats could be really interesting next year if Trent Clark and Gilbert Lara skip Helena (at least to start) to go with Harrison, Gatewood and Stokes. Brevard could have a really good pitching staff next year if Ponce and Kirby start there with Mederios and D.Williams. I am a proponent of grouping as many top prospects as you can on one team.

brewcrewdue80, yeah I would trade Morris for Alonso but that isn't the point. The Brewers are in a position to go for it this year. When a team is in this position you attempt to shore up your weaknesses with mid-season aquisitions (ideally without sacrificing the future). The primary concern should not be to trade for a guy who is having a bad year but may turn it around and be your 1b of the future. If your team is looking for the playoffs or at least a playoff race you trade for guys who are at least having a good year now. You don't gamble on a player like Alonso hoping that he will turn it around this year. My point with Morris was that you might as well just go with him for this year given Alonso's bad year so far (and really he has never lived up to his prospect status). brewcrewdue the differnce between you and I is that you are way more focused on filling 1b long term while I am looking for a boost this year.

When I say that I think Morris could put up similar numbers I was looking at OPS. I don't really care how each player gets there in terms of K% or BB%, BAIP, LD% P/PA and all that other stuff. Just tell me what it adds up to and for me that is OPS. Now is Alonso underperforming his potential, yeah maybe and I agree with you that he could be a buy low sleeper for 1b. But for this year right now the Brewers need a LH power bat that can play 1b. Alonso only covers two of those and isn't much of a short-term upgrade from Overbay. Put it another way. Aquiring Alonso is the kind of move you make in the offseason to compete in ST or during the season if ther Brewers were 5-10 games under .500 and were looking to see what you may have for next year. Thankfully that isn't where the Brewers are this year. They need to "go for it" and not neccessarily try to find a guy to be a long term answer.