KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Not to get the thread too off-topic, why the heck is Profar asking 10 mil? Dude posted 725 OPS as a LF(which is better than his career splits) and he's turning 30. What am i missing? I don't see any reason to be overly concerned about Mitchell playing every day in CF. If it goes poorly, we can swap him and frelick at any time. If Mitchell twists an ankle in the 5th, we have guys that can play CF for 4 innings and bring in a new guy for the next game. Also worth noting, teams will be making cuts right before the season as we will. We could find a better stopgap option than Naquin(that can play CF) from another teams cuts at the very end of March. -
Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Can you point out where in my post that I said those splits were guaranteed? If any of these guys were specifically really bad against left handed pitchers, I would like to think management would know and/or it would show up in the numbers. Mitchell had an 80 OPS swing, Frelick a 25 OPS swing, Turang was actually better against lefties by a very slim margin. At minimum, Frelick/Turang are candidates to not be protected at all against lefties. There's some argument to be made for Mitchell, but as I've noted, these guys need to face lefties to improve against them. I personally just have no problem with all 3 of these guys playing more or less everyday including against lefties most of the time if they earn everyday spots. The biggest issue with starting 3 rookies is simply starting 3 rookies is a high variance strategy. The Brewers may not due that to avoid that risk, but it shouldn't have anything to do with protecting any of these guys against left handed pitching. As soon as Frelick/Mitchell/Turang are up, they should play minimum 5 days a week and the starting pitcher handedness shouldn't matter. -
Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Considering all 3 LHH rookies are mlb ready and in our top 5 prospects, and none of the 3 have significant LH/RH splits, yes it is a crazy suggestion for an entire season. In September/October...sure. Best bat is all that matters. In April/May...it's crazy. -
Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So you want to turn two of our very top hitting prospects into platoon bats upon hitting the majors? Don't even give them the chance? That seems completely crazy.... -
Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Mitchell 2022 - 847 OPS vs RHP 768 OPS vs LHP Frelick 2022 - 890 OPS vs RHP 865 OPS vs LHP Generally speaking you don't want to get overly carried away platooning players, especially young promising players. It's one thing to platoon an established fringe guy like Naquin. They need to continue to face same handed pitching at this point to continue developing those skills. I don't really see a problem rolling out a lineup with Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Adames, Urias, Brosseau, Anderson, Contreras, RH DH against a left handed starter. You can even throw Turang in there and have 4 LH bats. LH starters also generally aren't specifically good against same handed hitters like relievers will tend to be. It's pretty normal for a LH starter to see 8-9 RH hitters in the lineup. -
Tyrone Taylor out for the first month of the season
KeithStone53151 replied to Outlander's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
We have enough RH hitters in the lineup against LH pitching. Also look at Frelick's career minor league splits, he's just fine against LH pitching. -
That specifically can be tied to having Josh Hader for most of his tenure. Teams with the best bullpens/closers tend to win more close games. That has little to do with the manager.
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That's certainly fair, I stand by it in that specific case but that's my opinion...hardly gospel. Not to digress too much, I pop into NSB every so often to read their takes(the best part is how optimistic they are that they'll sign every big free agent to a team friendly deal because everyone loves the cubs...or something) and I noticed you posted in there. I'm guessing you simply are part of that community as I can't imagine someone owning a brewers forum and being a cubs fan.
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Question, how much do we think the AGM or GM is evaluating talent? I would think those positions are more involved in the evaluation system and are using analytics and recommendations to make decisions. It would make sense seeing a correlation in us bringing in better talent over the last several years than we had previously, coupled with the Rays success with talent while Arnold was there. And so far, he's done really well in trades. It still baffles me that a trade in which the Braves get the best players, the A's get the best prospects, yet somehow the Brewers get the best value piece. It's like we somehow inserted ourselves and swindled both teams(really we swindled the A's mostly). It will be interesting to see if he still holds up in big mlb caliber decisions in a few years, right now he could be significantly helped by structure largely set up by Stearns for all we know. Also let's hope Arnold turning his attention to the entire organization fully doesn't impact the pipeline quality we've seen over the last few years.
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I'm not here to argue 55/45 decisions, like using x reliever instead of y reliever in a given inning. My arguments tend to be leaving a guy in too long or pulling a guy too soon as far as pitching. Sometimes those are 55/45, others are much more clear. One example that sticks in my head from last year is leaving Hader in about 3-4 batters too long against the Giants. He let Hader concede 6 runs including 3 home runs in a game we were up 3 at one point. We lost on a grand slam to Yaz, so up until Yaz we still had the lead. Hader had been struggling a bit recently, I'm pretty sure every manager in the game gets him out of there, except CC. I also largely blame CC for Hiura not getting more consistent atbats last year, and especially against RH pitching. It was completely baffling that CC kept using Hiura primarily against LH pitching and he'd pull Hiura and put in Tellez or Vogelbach or whoever against RH pitching. Most of the season, Hiura was one of the best hitters in baseball against RHP. It's wild to me that CC didn't see the trend. The trend, is actually that CC has started managing in an old school way. Having his 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, etc. The simple RH hitter vs LH pitcher formula wherever possible regardless of splits. In the Hader scenario I can imagine his thought process in the dugout "well it's still a save situation, must leave in closer". He's going backwards if anything.
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I tend to be pretty critical of Counsell. It's quite easy to nitpick his decisions, especially in a monday morning qb sense. I kinda feel like there's some similarity between Counsell and McCarthy. I believe McCarthy did the stuff you don't see really well, but come game day he might literally be the worst coach in the NFL. Counsell isn't THAT bad on gameday, but I sense he does the stuff we don't see pretty well. I get a sense these guys are properly motivated to compete and win. There's a good team aspect to the club. He does a good job managing for longevity of the season, he tends to error on the side of under-using pitchers...especially relievers(he's the anti-Maddon). The biggest problem I have with Counsell's game day decisions is they seemingly have gotten worse, not better, as he's gained experience. I don't think he's a guy that's capable of making the best decisions in the biggest games, now or in the future. So I think the Brewers FO is sitting there in the same situation they were with McCarthy, above average manager but not the guy that's going to get you to the promised land. Do you keep rolling with that manager or try to improve? In the Brewers case, I think the probably will and should continue to roll with CC. We aren't wasting prime #12 years like the Packers were with McCarthy, and teams can certainly win in spite of mediocre management(Ned Yost).
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I took a fair amount of issue with his comments and what he felt like he needed. I'm a big proponent of needing to put in the work. Talent only gets you so far, and as talented as he is...he'll fall behind in a hurry if he's not putting in the work. I believe that's part of what we've seen the last couple years. Every other big leaguer is talking about being in the best shape of their life, and Yelich is talking about getting mental clarity. Previous seasons when our guys have gotten covid and had to quarantine, every other brewer talked about the work they were doing...bullpen sessions...etc. Yelich talked about how he picked up a guitar for the first time. Yelich reeks of a guy who got the contract and is going to show up and punch the clock. I hope I'm wrong. I'm certainly not an expert in the field, maybe mental clarity truly is the answer. We'll have our answer in a few months.
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I'm hopeful all sides sort this thing out before the regular season. Can you imagine a game that matters ending that way? One question. I assume the pitch clock gets paused or something if a batter takes a foul ball off the shin or the catcher gets his bell rung on a foul?
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Nice article. Burnes was never coming back regardless. The discount required is too extreme to even be a consideration. The biggest issues could be Burnes not being willing to pitch on short rest ever, which i frankly wouldn't blame him considering. That could be problematic in the playoffs and/or if we have injuries down the stretch and he's healthy/able.
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I understand your point, but I still think the A's are dumb...or at minimum are making a very dumb trade. But as I said, I do see your point there are aspects they are certainly considering that many here are not.
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I'm quite confident he did not like it. i actually was against that trade at the time, it wasn't the slam dunk this one is.
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This might literally be the first trade the brewers have made that you've liked, at least publicly/on these forums.
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I feel like the report must be wrong, no way did we really get Contreras plus for Ruiz.
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This is always just informational, Ruiz with his tools can have a widely variable valuation depending on the club/scouting done on him. That said, I don't see a scenario where this is all we give up. There's just no way. If it is that's highway robbery.
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The delay makes me think we might be giving up a non 40-man guy. Because usually the big name 40 man guys are named right away.
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I wouldn't say this is accurate, but he did significantly improve his framing during his time here...
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Oh man if that's the best player we trade I'm ecstatic. Though it might not be...
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I'm a bit underwhelmed by this, but for different reasons than most. Simply looking at an ERA and having an opinion is far too simple. My biggest issue is with him being a 2 pitch guy and not really liking the look of his slider. It doesn't seem to have a nice, tight shape. FB/slider with not a huge gap in the velocity already makes him a RH specialist more or less, add to that his slider doesn't seem like enough of a plus pitch for a 2 pitch guy...i have concerns. All that said, he's clearly not a finished product and can get better. That leads to part 2. Coming from the Dodgers has good and bad to it. The good is, the Dodgers are the best development team in baseball and we can potentially learn from him what the Dodgers are doing. The bad is, the Dodgers are the best development team in baseball, we can't expect to take a Dodgers pitcher and turn him into something if the Dodgers couldn't. So, the hope would be that the Dodgers have him doing stuff over the offseason that transforms him into an effective bullpen arm. That's the big upside here. The other potential outcome is, we learn something about how the Dodgers are developing pitchers and offer him back sometime during spring training for a 5 figure loss. If our development team learns anything from the Dodgers, that's almost certainly worth 5 figures.
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If i have time, I do this sort of thing. I go to the forums of other teams that we've been linked to in trade and get a vibe for what their fans think their players are worth. The first related offer I saw was Montas and Laureano for Chourio, Wiemer, Small, and Perez. The second offer(much more reasonable) Laureano for Kelly and Mendez. That poster got shouted down for not getting nearly enough. Another guy wants Wiemer or Frelick as the headliner. Another guy thinks it should start with Frelick and Small with complementary pieces added. Mostly it's pretty typical overvaluing your own players type stuff. The Kelly/Mendez offer was clearly light and clearly one I would love to pull the trigger on. Anything involving Chourio is absolutely laughable. I could see Frelick being a headliner for him, but I wouldn't expect another highly rated prospect to be included unless it's like Ray or someone who's highly rated but really shouldn't be.
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If i have time, I do this sort of thing. I go to the forums of other teams that we've been linked to in trade and get a vibe for what their fans think their players are worth. The first related offer I saw was Montas and Laureano for Chourio, Wiemer, Small, and Perez. The second offer(much more reasonable) Laureano for Kelly and Mendez. That poster got shouted down for not getting nearly enough. Another guy wants Wiemer or Frelick as the headliner. Another guy thinks it should start with Frelick and Small with complementary pieces added. Mostly it's pretty typical overvaluing your own players type stuff. The Kelly/Mendez offer was clearly light and clearly one I would love to pull the trigger on. Anything involving Chourio is absolutely laughable. I could see Frelick being a headliner for him, but I wouldn't expect another highly rated prospect to be included unless it's like Ray or someone who's highly rated but really shouldn't be.
