KeithStone53151

Also worth adding, their best 3 hitters all RH. They'll see LH starters sometimes but rarely will they see a LH reliever. The reliever they face will almost always be a teams top 2 RH relievers.

Is it just me, or is this lineup not THAT good? I feel like Arenado and Goldschmidt will not be as good as last year. Goldschmidt had a career year at age 34 and Arenado had his best season if you remove the Coors factor(career 818 OPS on the road removes Coors factor, 2022 he was much better than that). I'm sure they'll be good, I see both guys falling in the mid 800s OPS range most likely...which is still very good of course. Aside from that, what here is scary? Walker has huge upside but otherwise a lot of low 700s or worse OPS players in 2022.

You don't think the guys in the 10-20 range of SB might end up closer to 30? The 40% of the slowest dudes still won't steal a meaningful amount. I think the guys that stole 10-20 will probably close to double their totals, the guys that stole 30+ previously...sky is the limit(or how often they get on base). That's about what I'm expecting, we'll have a better feel in about 3-4 weeks.

That'll probably true of the old school set in their ways managers. The younger analytics-driven managers will probably have their players running like crazy assuming they have personnel for it. I'm expecting a lot more pitchouts this year than we've seen recently. Not a ton, but a fair amount more considering the limited throw-overs.

This is at least a 10 game suspension right?

Even if this pick doesn't go straight to the Packers, it's very likely related. The Jets have more draft capital to work with in a trade and for what they want out of the draft for themselves, regardless of whether this specific pick goes to GB or not.

Why is this in blue? On that subject... How ecstatic are Bears fans that their owner won't have to demolish them this year?

Not exactly a Packers move, but this is certainly relevant to potential compensation for Rodgers...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/22/in-dealing-with-the-packers-its-time-for-the-jets-to-act-like-new-yorkers/ And then there's this take.....

I'll raise my hand as being way wrong at the time. There was a lot of star potential in the players we traded. Unfortunately they all went bust, and nobody really could have expected Yelich to go from what he was to a double MVP

That seems aggressive, I hope you're right.

Why not? 60 million to not put your body at risk...

One additional note, Adams decided last year that he wanted to go to the raiders and that deal seemed to come together pretty quick. Small sample, but I'm inclined to believe if one side is being unreasonable...it's the jets. Their front office isn't exactly a beacon of success.

The more I read up on this, what a weird situation this is from a leverage standpoint. Packers fans seen to think the Packers have all the leverage because Rodgers announced his intent and the jets have been signing all his buddies. Jets fans think the jets have the leverage because there are no other teams in on Rodgers. Its kinda tough to know. At the moment it seems to me the Packers have more leverage, but if they want 2023 draft comp they need to finalize a deal sooner than later. And of course it gets weird if Rodgers shows up to Packers off season and pre season stuff if this really drags out. I do wonder how far apart the sides really are. It seems pretty stupid if the jets are offering a second and the Packers want a first to not meet in the middle with the Packers getting the first but sending something else back. Who knows if those comp reports are accurate. The best case for both teams is a quick/fair resolution.

You're completely correct if he's primarily financially motivated AND he's bad and would be bad in any circumstance. If he has desire to be great, it kinda sucks as that's 3 prime years he's not accumulating counting stats. And who knows what impact not playing for at least 2 of the years will have on his development. Side note, football really isn't my sport. I appreciate all the opinions on the Rodgers situation. I was very curious how strong our position is with him and what we might get back in compensation. Sounds like most think we have a pretty strong negotiating position, I hope you all are right. We need to get him out the door immediately, I wanted to trade him last year as he doesn't seem motivated to win. He seems all about Rodgers and kinda in coast mode. No matter the sport, some guys stop caring when they get a big enough contract or generally get enough money. Rodgers has gotten weird in general but I just don't think he's doing the right things to get ready to be a top 5 QB this year.

Interesting stuff on Rodriguez. One thing off the bat, in not really sure he's throwing a slider based on this data alone, those seem like they could easily be mislabeled cutters thrown a bit slower. 6 different pitches is a lot for any pitchers to actually use in game, much less such a young pitcher. Lance Lynn and Corey kluber are always the guys that come to mind for me as successful MLB pitchers that rely heavily on multiple different types of hard pitches. That cutter looks really well located. Such a young pitcher being able to bust a guy up inside and backdoor the cutter effectively is very impressive. A lot to like for sure, incremental improvements are probably enough to make the show as his arsenal seems good enough already. Significant improvements on one of his off speed pitches, significant bump in velo, and/or becoming a plus command guy could get him into that #2/3 starter profile...in my opinion.

I agree completely with this. That said, I don't think the Brewers will extend any of Woodruff, Burnes, or Adames. It seems most think one of Adames/Woodruff will get extended, I just don't. Pure opinion, based on nothing but my opinion. We'll see.

I might literally puke when I say this, but pending the teams in the 16-20 range...they might be a touch low. They've spent to add some good players, and they've gotten better at making something out of nothing with bullpen arms. You can squint and see a 6 or 7 seed...especially considering the Brewers could start slow, trade good players, and be worse than the Cubs on paper by August. 21 would probably be the right spot if they traded divisional places with the diamondbacks or nationals...but their odds are probably slightly better in the central.

With the contracts some of these mega stars are getting with less than 1 year service time, I think the days of signing premium talents to contracts like what Albies got are more or less gone. We can certainly try. I mean, Peralta bit against the advice of his agent and that's already a W even if Peralta's arm falls off tomorrow. Based on Peralta/Ashby, I think it's safe to say the Brewers are having these discussions with players where they deem it appropriate/strategic. But there's high risk, and the player needs to be willing to accept the team friendly deal...some guys like Mookie Betts simply are willing to bet on themselves. But man I never thought Hiura would bust like he seemingly has to this point after that rookie year. Imagine if we had extended Hiura and signed him to like 7/70 and owed something like 55 million over the next 4+ years? Its tough building a competitive roster with half the resources of the big guys, we really can't ever miss on big contracts and have significant dead money on the books and still compete. As soon as that happens, we're back in the days of having Suppan/Wolf/Garza/etc eating 10% of the payroll with poor results.

Not to get too off topic. To those wanting to extend frelick/mitchell/chourio/etc, imagine if we had extended hiura to even a $70-80 million dollar extension before he hit the majors? That would have been very bad. Imagine if Ashby has a Thornburg-esque shoulder problem and is basically toast? It's not like all these deals work out as intended, there's a ton of risk in signing a guy to an extension before he's seen much time at MLB. A ton of reward as well obviously.

I think the Brewers front office has done an absolutely phenomenal job creating a pretty large window of competitiveness. That said, I think it closes with Burnes/Woodruff and retooling will be needed. It's not likely 32 year old Willy Adames is the guy we want as part of the next competitive window. For me, that's likely the case unless this combination of Peralta/Ashby/Turang/Mitchell/Weimer/Frelick/Chourio are the game changers we hope they are. I would like to see the Brewers gauge an extension for Adames based on how those guys do this year as a whole. If that young core can carry a competitive roster, then we might be able to be competitive right away and those first few years of Adames will be on a competitive roster. If not, there's no reason to shell out the $$ so Adames can get us from 68 to 72 wins. A couple small notes, the Brewers will be a lot of fun over the next few years if the position players pan out...we could be scoring a lot of runs and baserunning could be a lot of fun to watch. One argument in favor of Adames that I haven't seen, he's a big energy guy and that's great for a clubhouse. The jolt he gave the Brewers upon acquisition was huge, his energy was infectious all the way through the clubhouse and we started winning like crazy.

I think the return on Burnes would be surprisingly high. I can't think of any precedent of a cy young being traded with 1.5 years of team control, at least not recently. There is of course the Greinke trade, and in retrospect I'm not sure the Royals got enough in that trade. What I've noticed in recent years is teams will truly pay a premium for an elite talent. It is however similar with elite prospects, you don't really see those guys move unless it's for like Mookie Betts or Juan Soto. Burnes does fall in comparable territory for me. A big club could trade for him in order to quickly give him the big extension before he hits FA and keep him long term. Last year, Luis Castillo was traded with 1.5 years of team control. He's a very solid starting pitcher, but inarguably not as valuable as Burnes would be at the deadline assuming he performs to his standards and doesn't get hurt. The Reds for Castillo got currently the number 29 prospect in baseball, the number 44 prospect in baseball, and 2 mildly interesting throw-in types. That is the absolute floor of what we could get for Burnes. I think we would get one absolute elite prospect added to what was received for Burnes. So a prospect in the 5-15 overall range, a couple more between the 30-75 range, and a couple interesting players...probably more interesting than what the Reds received as those guys I don't think have much hope. That can of course get shifted around, if for example the Orioles went on a run and were willing to trade Gunnar Henderson...we might not get much else. I've seen a couple people note Painter/Rodriguez as the headliner, that makes a lot of sense based on the rankings.

That's a fair play and you're probably right, but better not catch too much of the plate down and in against a lefty.

That shift, the big difference is the xbh vs single as was noted above...and beating that shift is significantly less difficult on the hitter than the recently banned version. Pretty much everything 15 degrees to the lf side of the cf is a double, even if it's hit poorly. I believe if rowdy hits it in the corner he has a standup triple. I think maybe the cf moves closer to left, but you're still going to have massive alleys for doubles even if you have 2 prime Ricky Henderson's out there. Seeing that shift, I hope the brewers don't do it and other teams use it against us. And I really hope simply seeing it a few times has brewers players practicing going opposite field a fair amount more because the reward is worth. I feel like the only guy this would be even somewhat effective against on the brewers is tellez.

This seems like a really bad idea, I hope on all hope that teams shift like this against the Brewers. It's one thing for left handed hitters to not want to take bunt singles, but the incentive to just go to left seems way too high with this shift. Even Rowdy might get triples against this. Yelich might score if it's hit right down the line.