KeithStone53151

Freddy Peralta is a hard no - his floor is as a right-handed Hader. Harrison's a soft no, but the yes requires a TOR starter with at least three years of control, and a professional hitter type of prospect. For Erceg, the cost is a TOR starter with at least three years of control. I think you are dreaming a little bit. Nobody is going to give away a TOR starter for any one of those prospects on their own. What most of us point to is, you don't consider trading premium prospects unless you are getting premium talent. Guys like Brinson/Hader/etc shouldn't even be discussed for a guy like Gray/Quintana. If we are talking Chris Sale or Kershaw, sure we can talk about our premium prospects. But getting one of those 2 guys with say 1-2 years control would likely cost Brinson, Hader, Harrison, and 2 flier prospects. Erceg alone isn't going to bring back even a mid-rotation starter on a 2 month rental. And Peralta doesn't have a floor of Josh Hader. His stuff isn't quite as electric, he's right handed, and might not be as devestating at the mlb level as it appears to be in high a and AA. His floor is probably Jacob Barnes, with a high-upside ceiling at this point. I personally gave him 0 chance of becoming a starter up until he was successful enough to change my mind in August. I still think odds are against him there, but there's a chance.

No and NO on trading Harrison, Erceg or Peralta. To me those guys are conerstones of the future, unless we are getting a bonified ACE with years of control, I wouldn't even consider moving any of the guys mentioned above. It would have to be an offer that was so lopsidedly in our favor to consider it... The primary reason we shouldn't look at trading any of our higher caliber prospects for anything but a high level pitcher is that we have productive players pretty much everywhere, but you can always use pitching. I'm convinced the Brewers will add a pitcher via trade this off season, and I'm a bit nervous about what the prospect cost is going to be. At the same time, the right pitcher could put us over the top to a division title this year.

That's incredibly optimistic. He might have a shot at an MLB career is he played CF, but he primarily has played LF. Unless you're hitting 300 with 30 plus dingers in the minors, you likely aren't going to be an average major leaguer in LF. The problem with 4th outfielder designations in general is generally a 4th outfielder is a guy with at least a few years of mlb experience under his belt. You usually don't want to bring up a young guy with the idea of him being a 4th outfielder and getting inconsistent playing time. That's a recipe for failure, we've seen plenty of it. Stokes's season did enough to keep him on the fringe of prospect/organizational depth for probably one more season. If in 2018 he can crack 850 ops with an average approaching 300 and shows enough competence in CF that he can play average mlb defense there, maybe he can start getting talked about as a true 4th outfield caliber player that gets a shot as a 2nd division regular somewhere. That's best case for him, and assumes we trade him to a team that is starting a rebuild and believes in him.

And the Cubs could sign Darvish, Ohtani, or Arrieta and stay under the threshold. I also feel sorry for the fans of the team that signs Charlie Blackmon to a mega-contract (I realize you just put him in the list as a good player that is a free agent coming up in that offseason). Otani is going to be stuck signing a very low dollars deal when he comes over due to mlb rules. Pretty much every team has a shot at him(assuming there isn't some under the table nonsense happening...which is highly likely). I couldn't agree more on blackmon. That dude is going to get $100 million and the contract will be terrible before the ink dries.

Is wearing the Braun Jersey with his name taped over still a thing?

Come on man, there are 29 other teams out there. They can't just get every player they want. It's not a video game. And they certainly can't hand out the money in the contracts how they choose to big names like Harper and Darvish. If the Cubs try backloading a deal to either guy, they won't sign the player. Both guys, but especially Harper, will want big money up front with opt outs built in. Even if the cubs get one of Darvish/Arrieta, the rest of their rotation really doesn't look good. It looks much better on paper than the reality. Lester is quickly becoming a mid-rotation starter at best. Quintana about the same. Hendricks, this guy cannot keep this up with 86 mph heat...he just won't. And Montgomery could be a mid-rotation guy but is more likely back end. Also worth noting the rotation for the most part is old/aging. Nobody in the rotation has "upside" anymore.

It's hard to say the overall decision making in the Cubs front office was terrible. That said, I think the Cubs made a number of mistakes especially over the last 2 years that put them on a path to a total tear down in a year or two. Imagine if they hadn't traded Chapman and used Torres/Jimenez/Cease to get Sale instead? They probably don't win in 2016, but they might have won it all this year and would be in a much better position to win going forward. Also imagine if they traded Schwarber after the 2016 season as they should have. Schwarber is a DH on a non-DH team. His value was sky-high after that world series, heck they could have probably done the Chapman trade and used Schwarber/Jimenez/Cease to get Sale and Robertson. Sure Schwarber could have done what Khris Davis did when he left and not been bad like he was this year, but trading Schwarber made way too much sense on paper. I think Schwarber bounces back and is fine, but they aren't getting 2016 value for him if they move him now. The cubs were always planning on trading Jimenez/Cease/Torres/etc for pitching and going the "window" route. That's been roughly the plan since probably 2013/2014. I feel like they didn't maximize their window with their prospects, especially given the resources at their disposal. Their options at this point are to splurge like crazy this off season and get at least one of Darvish/Arrieta and probably 2 high end relievers in FA, or to trade some position player talent for pitching while making some FA signings. Either way, their best case scenario is probably to extend their window to 2019 or 2020 at best(when I say extend their window, I don't expect them to be favorites anymore...they simply will have a competitive team with a good not great chance to win the division)...at which point they will probably be awful and in top 5 pick territory again as Rizzo/Bryant leave or get traded. Epstein will also probably leave at this point, just like in Boston.

And with runners on too, unlike that terrible thames who only hits solo shots

http://www.dailyherald.com/news/20171019/images-dodgers-win-the-nlcs-over-the-cubs Scroll through here, there is some good stuff in there. Sad cubs and sad cubs fans.

No postseason team is complete without Mark Kotsay in CF.

Agreed, Agreed, Agreed. I could definitely see Stearns getting creative in how we target pitching upgrades. There are 4 or 5 other pitchers as good as or better than Swarzak on the market. If not Swarzak, we need to get 1-2 guys in that top tier caliber.

You need to be able to hit the ball for power to play, if he finds it. It's nice that he shows a good eye at the plate, but that OBP won't translate up to higher levels with better pitch command if he can't hit and isn't a power threat. He hasn't hit in the last 2 years, I won't be optimistic on Clark until he starts hitting as I think he's LF only and that bat is going to have to go from non-existent to plus for him to make it.

I'd have to agree I wouldn't trade any of those prospects for Duffy. I might trade Diaz and a couple lower level guys if I got back a good reliever as well. Any talk of trading Hader away at this point, in any deal outside of a few truly elite players on reasonable contracts, is nonsense. With all that said, KC isn't going to give a way a productive SP on the right side of 30 for scrap heap players. Bickford might be able to rebound, but Lopez at this point is likely middle relief. KC would likely want one solid prospect/player in return along with a sweetener or two.

I thought I saw he got rid of the golf grip a while back. I think many people are far more positive on him than i am. He hits the ball hard on occasion and sports a very high obp with low avg. We've seen that once before, his name was Michael Reed and he didn't make it. I think Clark has a better chance to improve at the plate than Reed. Clark is also going to struggle in CF and RF with a well below average throwing arm. I like Ray as a prospect much more than Clark at this point, despite Clark being much younger.

1. Lewis Brinson 2. Keston Hiura 3. Corbin Burnes 4. Luis Ortiz 5. Brandon Woodruff 6. Brett Phillips 7. Tristen Lutz 8. Lucas Erceg 9. Isan Diaz 10. Corey Ray 11. Mauricio Dubon 12. Freddy Peralta 13. Jacob Gatewood 14. Monte Harrison 15. Jacob Nottingham 16. Phil Bickford 17. Kodi Medeiros 18. Trent Clark 19. KJ Harrison 20. Josh Pennington 21. Caden Lemons 22. Marcos Diplan 23. Carlos Herrera 24. Mario Feliciano 25. Nathan Kirby 26. Troy Stokes I added a 26th in case someone is traded or I blatantly made an error somewhere.

My biggest concession related issue was their decision to not let people leave TGI Friday's with long islands. That's my drink of choice whenever I go to the game, and it used to always be packed down there because their long islands are far better than the crap served at the bars. They enacted the rule this year that people who buy a long island(I assume any drink) at TGI Fridays must drink it down there and can't go back to their seats. I sent some very nasty related comments in my post season SSH ticket package survey, because this clearly to me is a money grab. They were losing out on liquor sales and made a stupid rule to help themselves corner the market. Apparently it was far easier(and cheaper) to do that than try and make a better/comparable long island.

I honestly thought we drafted Ray and Clark entirely to be trade chips. At the time of both picks, we had a nice core forming...especially in the outfield. I felt like we were to some degree trying to corner the CF market and use it to acquire impact pitching when the time came. Hitters are generally safer picks and less likely to flame out completely before hitting the upper minors. That said, I think we need a bit more patience with Ray. I know looking at Harrison/Gatewood is a bit different because they weren't college picks, but Ray might just need some more development time for things to click. The natural ability is there, and we have time before we would need to put him on the 40 man. I won't get overly concerned about him being a bust unless he has another terrible year.

It's young enough for a guy that is known to be good. I'll wait for your 2 page post about the prime of pitchers, but if his elbow holds up, having him until age 33 isn't terrible. Back to the original point, it's a transaction board, but it is a bit of a tired trend. "Team A wants to rebuild, maybe they want to shed salary and give us their All Star caliber player for cheap spare parts." This one didn't use "shed salary" but if they're rebuilding, Villar and Broxton don't do a ton for them. If they're trading Duffy, it's for guys that won't hit the majors until 2019/2020 and it's for stud prospects. Most owners will ride their high payroll into the ground rather than just give guys with a high salary away. The Tigers waited it out with Verlander and got something substantial. If it doesn't work out, the rebuilding teams will just sit on the salaries because they won't be active in free agency so in 1-2 years their payroll will be 2017 Brewers-esque and almost clean as a whistle. Anyways, not shooting the messenger as I've posted dumb trade ideas as well, but salary dumps are few-and-far-between unless an owner is in financial trouble or some crazy situation like the BoSox/Dodgers deal several years ago. I don't think it's entirely true about them not wanting either Villar or Broxton necessarily. The Brewers were in rebuild mode, yet traded Jason Rogers for Keon Broxton and a prospect, putting Broxton in CF at an advanced age when he wouldn't be part of the core. It's absolutely possible the Royals could be interested in either guy as a bounce-back candidate, with Broxton being more likely. Most GM's aren't that narrow-minded where they will only be interested in one specific form of value. With that said, it's reasonable to look at the quintana trade when looking at what Duffy might fetch. But Quintana is better and his contract is much more team friendly. Duffy's contract is more expensive and fully guaranteed. Quintana has 1 guaranteed year with 2 options years that have minimal buyouts. So, if Quintana blows out his arm in 2018 or 2019...the cubs can wiggle off the hook. If Duffy blows out his arms, sorry guys...pay me my 15M per. And then you take the whole "loose bodies in the elbow" thing into consideration and it's very clear Quintana should be valued much higher than Duffy. If both parties were interested, I think the Brewers would try to include one of Broxton/Ray in the trade, a pitcher from the Ponce/Diplan/Supak caliber, and a hitter in the Gatewood/Nottingham/Harrison range. The Royals would probably try to push for one of Burnes/Ortiz along with Broxton/Ray...which is reasonable but I would hope we say no to.

Without that rule, contreras gets destroyed by culberson... and he's probably safe anyways. Maddon should be thanking his lucky stars for that rule, or he might have been without a catcher the rest is the post season

Except that Walker is a actual good defender at 2B, something Gennett has never been. He also has a much bigger track record of success than Gennett. If anything, Gennett is a poor-man's Walker with worse defense. I went through the exercise of finding comps for Walker a while back in a different thread, see below. It's almost like he either didn't read my post or ignored the facts. How Walker compares to these guys is moreso opinion, but the contracts received are facts. "I disagree with you on this one Briggs. I looked back a couple years and tried finding a comp. 2016-17 had next to no middle infielders on the market that signed to big deals. Justin Turner got 4/64 and Luis Valbuena got 2/15(most thought he'd get like 3/30 i believe). 2015-16 saw Zobrist get 4/56, Daniel Murphy get 3/37.5, and Howie Kendrick get 2/20. Murphy and Kendrick were on a QO, so I think they were then tied to draft pick compensation as well driving down their values. Murphy is probably the best comp for Walker at that point(he's worlds better now but at that point they were statistically very comparable). I suspect he would have gotten a bigger deal without the QO, and that was 2 years ago with 2 other solid 2b on the market and he got 12.5/year. This year, Walker will be the best 2b on the market with a pretty significant dropoff beyond him. 15 million is probably very reasonable, and it could be more depending on which teams are involved in the bidding."

Not to derail the thread too much, but I saw a stat recently that Judge struck out more times in this 5 game playoff series than Tony Gwynn did in 577 PA in 1995. I then looked at the best K rates from 1995 to 2017. In 1995 Gwynn was best with 2.6%, but the next guy was at like 4.8% or something and there were quite a few guy in the 5-7% range. This year, Panik was the best full time player around 9.4% while Revere was the best overall with 8.2%. Different game.

Santo Manzanillo. I thought he was going to be a stud back end reliever. Car accident man, shoulder never was the same. This guy is exhibit A of why I'm so nervous about Nelson.

I actually really like that idea. Fiers is what he is ... probably a #4-5 starter at best on a good team, but his stuff probably plays a little better in the National League. They good thing about him is you know he's durable and will keep you in a game for the most part. One tricky thing about bringing in a lower end guy like Fiers, I'm sure they would realize that with Nelson due back and Burnes on the way...that person might not make it the entire season in the rotation and would lose value next year on the open market. Might need to settle for a minor league deal. If Fiers had another opportunity that more likely guaranteed him the rotation spot all year, it might be a better bet. That's merely speculation on my end. Also a higher end guy would be a different story, as long as they are pitching well they'd keep the spot and the worse of Woodruff/Hader would go to the pen.

I think watching the split screen view, there's a pretty good chance he held the tag on. In what world is "a pretty good chance" worthy of overturning a call. Replays call for "convincing" evidence. I hope the Dodgers destroy the Cubs in 4 games and cost mlb 3 games worth of revenue.

Yeah, there has to be another angle. They came back from commercial with that split screen and I'm like, this is it? This is the angle you used to overturn the call? If you needed more evidence that ratings matter more to mlb than a level playing field...exhibit A. On a cubs writers Twitter, a guy commented something like "I can't believe they overturned it, but ill take it."