KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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He's actually cooled off considerably lately, hitting 222 in his last 10 and only 3 hits in his last 5 starts. He's also sporting 15 k in 41 AB.
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Guys like Guerra, Suter, Wang(who you referenced), Webb, Woodruff and Jungmann are all on the 40 man and all are very likely to come up and off long relief in case a starter struggles. Even Lopez might come up. I feel like Garza has been more successful when he gets extra rest, I could see him having a start skipped to try and find some of the smoke and mirrors he used successfully most of the year. They also might bring Rivera up for potential late inning infield defense. Bandy/Susac will come up as backup catching options for the reasons you stated, and Phillips will surely make it up at some point as LH back and potentially late inning defense. Whoever that speed guy is that Stearns recently signed will also come up, that seems to be the only reason we signed the guy was to run for us in September.
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I only quoted his xFIP specifically. I also looked at contact rates - specifically soft contact. I also looked at BABIP. Just watching him pitch is the last thing you should do to determine luck. You can't remember where every ground ball goes and you can't remember every liner right at a guy. Also, the defense behind a guy matters. Is Villar playing or is Sogard? Is Shaw playing or is Perez? That makes a difference especially for a guy that pitches to contact like Davies. If you can remember all of that then you are a savant and should move to Las Vegas and start counting cards. Fair enough. You certainly can't remember where every ball has been hit, you can get a much better feel for whether he's hitting his spots, how good his stuff looks, what kind of pitches guys are swinging and missing at, etc. The XFIP appears to be an outlier advanced metric in this case when looking at others. FIP is low 3s, BABIP is 276, WHIP is down, strand rate is about the same, K rate is up, BB rate is about the same. The BABIP is mildly lucky, but he's also generating much less hard contact than the 1st half...so it should make sense that his BABIP go down a bit. The FIP in this case probably makes the most sense to where is ERA truly belongs. Taking a handful of advanced metrics as a whole points to low 3s(which is worse than low 2s where his 2nd half ERA is) in my opinion.
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Any more moves before end of August?
KeithStone53151 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Are we sure the Pirates are willing to punt on the season at this point? They aren't THAT far out of the chase. And like you all have stated, they'd get next to nothing in prospect value in return and still have to pay someone else a league minimum salary to fill the roster space. I like the idea, just not sure the Pirates would go for it. -
And the Nationals are missing Harper. The Braves are a bit more formidable than the Phillies/Reds, if the Cubs struggled with those teams I suspect they'll struggle with the Braves as well.
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Any more moves before end of August?
KeithStone53151 replied to Madhawk23's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Denard Span is still out there. Is he worth pursuing? He comes with a significant contract through 2018 so unless the Giants picked up a lot of salary, he wouldn't cost anything of significance. He's not the player he once was, but at 33 he should have a little left in a more hitter friendly environment and his defensive regression shouldn't be as noticeable in a smaller park. Are you still on the "Walker is going to get flipped at the deadline" line of thinking? I don't see a spot for someone like span on our active roster. Which position player would we get rid of to create a spot? Sogard? He's been better lately and his versatility is valuable. The only potential move I could see is for an upgrade in the bullpen(probably a lefty), cutting a Torres/Drake/Hughes. I don't think it happens at this point. I think this is the roster we roll with in September. We have a ton of valuable pieces coming up with September callups which will surely help down the stretch. -
Standings following the Western road trip
KeithStone53151 replied to Est1970's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The only reason the dodgers were close that 3rd game is that fluke fly ball that Santana lost in the sun. That and the umpire was actively out to get us the last 2 innings of the game. But, we shouldn't get overly carried away as we played a very weakened team and had our top 3 pitchers lined up against their 3 worst. We likely wouldn't win 2 of 3 against a full strength dodgers team. -
It's one game, but him getting used to get seager and turner today was very telling. That's how miller would have been used. Some teams would bring in their closer to face those guys in this case. I think it's fair to say he is at minimum at the same hierarchy level with counsel as swarzak right now and for sure ahead of everyone else. This feels like a statement series. These guys confidence is probably through the roof right now after this. Meanwhile the cubs lose 2 of 3 to the worst team in the league. I fully expected to be 4-5 back at this point, here's hoping we go on a run and completely close the gap.
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Davies struggled with fastball command in the first half, he also was working on that curve that he honed in the off season. Through the season he has nailed down those pitches and this stretch is the end result. His stuff is back end but he plays up to a solid number 3 due to plus command. And you guys really need to get out of the habit of looking at one stat as your basis for performance. His xfip is this, therefore he's been lucky. It's one tool, and you are way better off actually watching the guy pitch to determine whether he's been lucky or not.
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These guys don't need to tear it up in September to have a legit chance at a starting job to start 2018. They've done what they needed to in AAA. They could show plenty in spring training along with their 2017 AAA production to warrant the starting gig. A good showing would certainly help things, but they will absolutely base their decision on more than one month of likely sporadic September at bats.
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Stearns has always tried making guys compete for spots. I could see him keeping all 3 for that reason. All 3 guys are tremendously talented...going into the offseason knowing they have every opportunity to earn the starting CF job but also knowing the other 2 guys are pretty damn good. If that doesn't motivate you to work like crazy in the offseason, I don't know what does.
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I noticed his BB rate improving as well. Nice to see him having more success as he swings at better pitches.
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That's just it, it's pretty likely that 3.5 will be 5 or 6 by the end of the month with the schedules. While it's still theoretically possible to make that up in September, their schedule doesn't get any more difficult. While they aren't the 100+ win team from last year they're still too good IMO to go into a huge funk in September against a soft schedule enough to get back in it. We'll likely be in a position where we need to go 6-1 against them to rest of the way to have a shot and I just don't see that happening. Injuries will hurt, but not enough to send them into the big tailspin that we need. I'm a lot less of a believer in the Rockies and Diamondbacks and as long as someone else doesn't get hot and catch us, we only need one of them to falter, and neither is sitting on a really easy schedule. At this point all we can do anyway is control what we can control. I would guess that would not be good enough to win the division but would be enough to sneak into a 1 game WC playoff. I think the Cubs and Dodgers are battered enough that it might only be 4 with an entire month to go. I really think we could win 2 of 3 against LA with them weakened a bit, and the cubs could lose 2 of the next 4 with a battered roster. They have 7 vs us, 7 vs st louis, and 7 vs pittsburgh down the stretch. Not a single one of those games will be easy(pitt is in it enough).
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I suspect they'd let him go more than that. Also I suspect they would be most apt to skip some of his starts with off days to limit his innings early on and keep him available in September(where they could also limit his innings if needed).
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Spot on. I've never seen Votto swing at a pitch as bad as the slider he swung at when facing him. He also had RH Posey looking very uncomfortable and got a fairly weak groundout from him. I feel like signing a Garza and starting him over Hader is the equivalent to playing the prevent defense in football, prevent you from winning. A garza type would be guaranteeing failure, where as Hader at least gives you a solid chance at an above average rotation arm with a reasonable chance at a star in the rotation. At the very least, he'll learn/develop/improve in his shot in the rotation.
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I'm still optimistic on our chances to catch the cubs. Right now is pretty much the optimal time for them to gain ground on us from a schedule standpoint. Last week and this week, they faced bums while we faced solid competition. Now we face a Dodgers team missing 3 key players while they face an awful Phillies team. In theory, after this weekend we will have better opportunities to gain ground. Also their spat of injuries certainly isn't helping their cause. Lester, Russell, Contreras, and now Bryant. And their depth/farm are both awful, so they don't have much for options to replace these guys. They feel kinda like the Brewer teams from 5-6 years ago that had some very poor players taking meaningful atbats due to lack of depth.
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According to baseball reference, in 71 PA since the all star break, Hader has struck out 25 guys, walked 9, allowed 11 hits(5 2b 0 hr) and a slash line of 186/324/271 with a 324 BABIP. A 12.6% walk rate is still high, but it's a sign of progress for sure. For comparison, Knebel is at a 13.7% BB rate on the season, Barnes is at 10%, Andrew Miller at 8%. This damages the BABIP argument considerably as 324 is pretty high and he still managed a sub 600 OPS against and 1.59 ERA over the 2nd half(it was 0.73 1st half, he was lucky 1st half without question). Also yesterday everyone watched Hader wax the 3 guys he faced in 10 pitches. I feel like I'm the resident Josh Hader defender on this board, I'm probably one of the highest on him and that makes me a touch biased for sure. Josh struggled those first handful of appearances but has shown improvement through the second half. The statistics make that pretty clear. The only way it would make sense to me to not put Hader in the rotation to start is if we make a big time free agent signing. I can't imagine Stearns signing a fringy #4/5 like Garza and that guy getting the job over Hader.
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I think you are pretty much right on the money. I could see them sending archer as a test to determine whether he's 40 man worthy. Houle especially would be an interesting and good choice if we send a catcher, though I also wonder if we send Susac. It's probably too early to send Hiura, though that would be incredibly exciting to follow. Erceg could also make sense, being a college guy.
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I don't think he's pitched back to back yet, will be interesting.
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I'm a bit surprised they pitched to Aguilar there, I would have pitched around him and tried my luck with manny pineapple. Here's hoping we can scrape a couple runs against their shaky bullpen. If the Giants get anything going this inning, they'll probably pull Moore for a PH.
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He hasn't allowed a run in his last 6 outings.......... There's no way that can be right. Look it up if you don't believe me. A 5 second google search would have prevented you from looking foolish.
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I'd like to think we can get some better swings on this guy 3rd time through.
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He hasn't allowed a run in his last 6 outings..........
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The next 3 guys up have had 4 successful at bats off garza today, out of 6. He should not be going out to face these guys...
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Regardless of what happens this inning, this should be the end of the line for Garza. His spot is due up anyways, use a PH and give us more offense. We can't let guys see him a 3rd time, that would be really really bad.