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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    The starting pitching dropoff to what they've had the last few years to what they have currently is staggering. You said it yourself, Zach Davies is their number 2. And yeah he's not bad, but him as the number 2 says a lot about what's behind him. And the bullpen really isn't any better. It's possible the defense really helps the pitching look good, remains to be seen. There should be a lot of scoring in Chicago. And part of my projection is based on them deciding to sell at the deadline. The Cubs probably have the most volatility of any team in the division based on how the first half goes. They could of course just outscore teams like crazy and trade for pitching at the deadline and potentially go for 100 wins. They could also get off to a slow start, be 6-7 games below 500 at the deadline, and trade a couple star players and be really bad. I almost feel like projecting 75 wins is too high, I feel like most of their potential outcomes are 72 or less wins...or 85 or more wins.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Twins 2-1 @Cubs 2-1 @Cards 1-2 Cubs 2-1 Pirates 2-1 @Padres 1-2 @Cubs 1-2 Marlins 2-1 Dodgers 0-2 Total 26 games 13-13
  3. KeithStone53151
    I had family members buy opening day tickets on Friday when they went on sale to general public. So if you were quick, you had a shot at some.
  4. KeithStone53151
    Yeah I looked at the numbers a bit and agree with this. He also had at bats in 2019, so I think it's a bit too late to be playing service time games. Much more likely is he simply isn't the best player right now. His mlb numbers are pretty underwhelming. Im extremely excited for the Cubs to have a trash first half and sell heavy into a full rebuild. I believe all of baez, rizzo, and bryant are on their final year...
  5. KeithStone53151
    I haven't been paying attention to the Cubs, but what happened to hoerner? Wasn't he a hot prospect infielder? I would think they'd plug him at 2b...
  6. KeithStone53151
    For starters, I think that valuation is probably at least a little low. More importantly, they don't really have great options to cost effectively add WAR at that position. Someone brought up Bruce, maybe they pay him 2 million bucks to put up -0.5 WAR over 400 PA. That's not really the type of thing a contending team should do. It's possible at cut downs that someone releases a better option that they can bring in at 1-2 million bucks that can be replacement value, or maybe it's more worthwhile to trade for an established big leaguer that can actually help you win games.
  7. KeithStone53151
    I feel that the rotation depth is actually pretty good compared to most teams. I don't know if it'll be Suter or Rasmussen or if it'll be someone from the minors (Lauer, Bettinger, Brown). Might not be overly exciting, but have a look at what most other teams run out as their 7th or 8th starters, and I think most of them would wish they had a Suter there. There aren't as many good starters out there as we tend to think, past the first 3-4 most teams are pretty bad. And then there's teams like the Dodgers... but they're hardly the norm. I keep forgetting about suter. That's fair to view him as the 7th starter and that's really not bad. That helps a lot actually. Lauer as 8th starter isn't that bad but really we don't want to see him in games for at least a few months. He's just not right. I feel like small or ashby will be ready to contribute before him. Also despite rasmussen getting stretched for multiple innings, I don't think they'd use him in a starting role. If they did, it would probably be a 1 off bullpen game with him going max 3 innings. Rolling in 7 deep with a few guys that could be ready in June/July isn't bad though considering our top 7 are all currently healthy (knocking on all the wood)...
  8. KeithStone53151
    Gotta like Woodruff and Burnes at the top and it's hard to complain about Anderson and Peralta at 3 and 4. If you're really only worried about one guy (who still has a chance to be pretty good too) you probably have a pretty good rotation. We have Lindblom, Suter, maybe even Ashby/Small that could step in if things really go south. Heck, Porcello's still sitting out there, maybe MA can stretch the payroll a little bit further still. But I'm willing to take a chance on Houser's low HR/high groundball rate with the improved defense and see if he can finally put things together first. I don't know if anyone else caught Narvaez' interview during the game a few days ago, but he picked Houser as the guy no one's talking about that he expects to have a good season this year. Hope he's right! Houser is 3... Anderson and Peralta round out the rotation. I never said I thought the rotation would be bad, I just don't know that I buy we'll be 3rd best in the NL in run prevention. I mean, I guess if you project absolutely no injuries for all teams...there's a better argument. But our depth for the rotation is pretty blah, which is break from the norm the past few seasons. Who is our 7th starter anyway? 6th is obviously Lindblom. I guess at the end of the day I don't have huge qualms with these projections. I think they project us a little too good on defense and a little not good enough on offense.
  9. KeithStone53151
    Weird, the entire NL East is projected to be amazing except Miami. I'm not so sure we are going to be 3rd best in the NL in run prevention unless the defense really picks up the back end of our rotation. That 5th spot especially is looking pretty bad(Houser). I think we'll probably score a bit more than they are projecting. We'll find out real soon.
  10. KeithStone53151
    To be fair, Jimenez is essentially a DH playing corner outfield too, although he at least has experience in the outfield. Feel bad for Eloy - hopefully he makes a full recovery. As much as Eloy isn't really a great or good or mediocre outfielder, he at least has a ton of experience out there. He has more speed and much more arm than Vaughn, plus all the experience. I don't think this is a very good idea, especially considering Vaughn hasn't even gotten his feet under him hitting at the MLB level.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Cain doesn't fit as well I'm my opinion as they have robert for cf and eaton can backup in cf if needed. Also cain is older, more expensive, and 2 years left. I think with him, we'd probably have to pay a bunch of salary or give up something to get the white sox to take him. The easier fit is Garcia. Even with Garcia though, I think we'd probably end up sending some money back with him in order to get anything back in return. I still think the best trade would be for an infielder or else a number 4/5 starting pitcher type.
  12. KeithStone53151
    Bruce since 2017: .301/.474 Gracia since 2017: .336/.456 (Those numbers also include the two best years of Garcia’s career.) If you can have Bruce for just his salary, what GM would give up any capital to acquire basically the same guy with a 10 million dollar salary to boot. Really. Ok, bruce has better slugging while garcia is significantly better at literally everything else...also garcia is 29 while Bruce is 33. The likelihood of Garcia living up to his last couple years production is much high than Bruce living up to his. There a reason Garcia is getting 12 million a year while Bruce is a minor league deal. We aren't a match because they can just go get Bruce for free is a poor poor argument.
  13. KeithStone53151
    Garcia is notably a better player than Bruce, a contending team probably shouldn't head to the bargain bin for a starting outfielder. I will add I don't think we trade Garcia for a prospect unless it's a very young one with a lot of promise, or they eat all the salary so we can add elsewhere. I think a more likely trade would be for a player we can use now. I'm not sure what their 3b/ss depth is like, or starting pitching depth. Those would be obvious fits for us.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Jimenez went down with what appears to be a fairly significant injury. With that roster built to contend, and seemingly minimal depth behind their big 3 OF, I could see the White Sox having interest in a corner OF to fill in for Jimenez while he's out. Garcia seems like a really great fit for that team. Only 1 year on his deal and having a good spring, could fill in for however long Jimenez is out and they'd probably find a way to use him whenever Jimenez returns. They have the DH in case Vaughn doesn't work out there, and at worst he's a high end 4th outfielder down the stretch for a contending team. Not sure if the White Sox would want him or if we match up, just seems like it could be a good fit.
  15. KeithStone53151
    Sounds like Yelich is practicing trying to hit a ball into Lake Michigan today...
  16. KeithStone53151
    Brewers - 89-73 Cardinals - 85-77 Reds - 80-82 Cubs - 75-87 Pirates - 0-162 65-97 MVP: Yelich - this one is easy CY Young: Burnes - expecting big things from this guy and his wicked arm. Breakout: Hiura - I think the strikeout rate improves and we see 900 ops. Disappointment: Shaw & Hader - I don't think they'll be overly disappointing, I think Shaw is around 680 ops with good defense...which is valuable just not what you want. I think Hader blows more games than usual and is more 3.5 ERA than sub 2 ERA. Under the radar player to watch: Peralta & Turang. I think Peralta breaks out a bit this year and finally sticks in the rotation. He has enough weapons. On positional side, I think Turang has some shot at a callup in June/July. He got a couple hundred AB in high a at age 19 in 2019. Under normal circumstances, he probably would have opened in high A or AA in 2020 and closed the year in AA or AAA and would be talked about as a possibility to make the team this year. There's a real chance facing AAA/MLB pitchers and getting coaching from MLB caliber instructors at the alt training site last year actually sped up his development. If Urias/Arcia don't do enough on the field to earn the spot, and Turang looks good when the AAA season starts, I think it's certainly possible we see him and that he's exactly what we are looking for at the position. Rookie of the Year - Turang if he gets the call. Outside of him I don't think we have a rookie that does enough to deserve a rookie of the year call.
  17. KeithStone53151
    I kinda expected him to get involved on the Brewers social media side, I suppose it's certainly possible that happens in addition to what he's doing.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I think that depends. For postseason tickets, my rep said they didn't really care if we sold the tickets that we got to each game...they specifically said they didn't want us selling extra tickets we bought as part of the presales. So I would view that as 20 pack holders looking to buy extra tickets at the presale and then selling them...that might get you locked out of presales. In my case, I received a credit for my opening day ticket selection as a 20 fan select. I would think if I theoretically were to buy at the presale and sell, I think that would be fine. They certainly can't take too much issue with reselling, I mean the credit on my account only will last for so long. Most likely, I'll buy what I can and sell them to friends for whatever I pay as I wont go but I know plenty of people less serious about covid from my opening day group that will want to go.
  19. KeithStone53151
    Lindblom throws 5 pitches because he needs to, it gives the hitter that much more to think about. None of his pitches are even as good as Peralta's third best offering. The only way Lindblom can be effective is if he's an artist on the mound and can keep hitters off balance. I also would argue Lindblom is the type of guy that should be looking for weak contact with his caliber of stuff, not so much looking for strikeouts. Back to Freddy, would love to see him in the rotation if his stuff dictates it. I do continue to worry about his size and handling a starters workload, but we'll see. Would be really nice to have him/hader/suter/Rasmussen as guys that can pitch 2-3 innings behind a starter every 3rd or 4th night and have Devin Williams in the mix to close games as needed.
  20. KeithStone53151
    I didn't get anything from my rep either, just the email that's already been referenced regarding a presale. In this email, I was told I would get a credit for games april 1-may 2 and would have the opportunity to buy tickets for games at the presale. Im also a fans choice 20 pack person. So I'll do my best to secure what I can for opening day and go from there.
  21. KeithStone53151
    The answer to dealing with Sinclair frankly comes from consumers. If a bunch of people cave and sign up for AT&T or Spectrum so they can watch the Brewers, Sinclair will keep the price high. If a significant number of people just don't watch, AT&T and Spectrum may scoff at the price to carry the channel and then Sinclair is getting no money. At the end of the day, I would think it makes more financial sense for them to charge a more fair price for the product. These numbers are completely made up, but let's say they 1 million people subscribe to AT&T and Spectrum in the state and they get $10/sub/month...they'd make a lot more money if hulu/youtube/sling/etc carried the Brewers as well. If another 500 thousand people are on those services paying $8/sub/month, they bring in more money that way. I would be curious the stats on people in the state with spectrum/AT&T vs hulu/youtube/sling/etc. The problem with my formula is probably the numbers for the streaming services isn't large enough to justify reducing the price. If more people go to the streaming services, it will be tough to jack up the price for cable and rely on them to support the high rate sinclair is charging. I firmly believe this will inevitably happen, this or the Brewers simply come up with their own offering...probably on a streaming platform.
  22. KeithStone53151
    The Brewers I believe attempted to transforms Tyrone Taylor's swing when he reached high A. It took years for him to start seeing the results in games. From 2014-2016 and a chunk of 2017 he was pretty bad...it seems he finally got comfortable with the changes toward the end of 2017 and then 2018. It's fair to look at Tyrone Taylor as he is an incredible athlete just like Mitchell...and it took him a long time. Major swing changes definitely don't come easy to everyone and take time to implement. I will say I think it would be better for them to full commit to swing changes now versus waiting a couple years and then doing it. This seems like the type of thing that makes sense to try to implement during an offseason with driveline or someone similar. I wouldn't mess around with it now during the minor league season.
  23. KeithStone53151
    I don't know that it's 100% fair to blame the Brewers for this one, it's possible this was forced by state/city whatever due to COVID. I still disagree if that's the reasoning, but possible. I remember years ago being absolutely furious with the Brewers when they stopped allowing carry-out long islands from TGI Fridays...you had to stay in the TGI area and finish your drink. Back in my mid-late 20s, those long islands for $8-9 were one of the best values in the park...we'd have a couple people go get them every couple innings and bring back 2 each to our seats. When they stopped allowing it, I just assumed the Brewers wanted people to pay $12 for their version of a long island that was half the size and not nearly as good. I learned a couple years later that it was a city/state thing, and it actually makes sense when you compare it to the rules of other bars that don't allow you to leave the premises with drinks. So it definitely sucks and I don't agree with it, but I wouldn't go as far as to say this is likely to become a permanent rule.
  24. KeithStone53151
    https://www.mlb.com/brewers/ballpark/covid-19 The "No bag" policy and the no carry-ins allowed.... using covid-19 as an excuse. I don't see how keeping food and beverage from being brought in does anything to prevent covid. If anything, more people will be buying food in longer concessions lines. Unless their thought process is no bag checks, get people in the door faster...but with the metal detectors that's gonna be a huge pain anyways... Eliminating bags isn't really going to impact that much. It's clearly a money grab. Their stadium, their rules. I don't care for it though and hopefully it changes. I personally should be getting F&B vouchers through SSH paying early and will use those for drinks in game on the occasion I go...which will be considerably less than normal especially the first few months of the season.
  25. KeithStone53151
    I just read something that apparently no carry ins. Looks like the brewers trying to make up for lost revenue any way they can.
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