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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    The Vikings are oddly a team that I think can bang with SF and has a real shot to win. Sometimes NFL matchups are a bit like rock-paper-scissors.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Counsell has clearly been improving his decision making over the last couple years as he learned on the job...at least in my opinion. Very happy to see him sticking around a while.
  3. KeithStone53151
  4. KeithStone53151
    Him and Buster Olney were two paid content guys for sure.
  5. KeithStone53151
    He fixed the typo and added additional information in a 2nd tweet, for those interested.
  6. KeithStone53151
    "Unless I was living under a rock during my time with the brewers, we did have an extra camera, an algorithm or buzzers... 90% of the guys didn’t even want the pitch called from a guy who did pick the signs at 2nd. Using video work to pick up tendencies or “tips” from the pitcher" Zach Davies tweeted that about 5 minutes ago. He since deleted it, but I wonder if that's because of the obvious error in bold. Clearly intended the word to be "didn't". Considering at this point he's a former Brewer, gives some credibility to us playing by the rules.
  7. KeithStone53151
    Ugh, Jimmy has always been one of my favorites...but it will be tough to wish him well now.
  8. KeithStone53151
    Thames will fit nicely over there. He'll probably soft platoon at 1b with Kendrick for the most part and PH. He certainly makes that club significantly deeper and overall better.
  9. KeithStone53151
    Way to throw in that last tidbit to justify placement in the optimism thread. Simply saying he'll be better defensively in 2020 is a reasonable and likely assumption. One note on Hiura. I was fiddling around with batted ball data on him. Last season Hiura hit roughly 30% to left, 30% to right, and 40% to CF with an over 40% hard hit rate. If anyone was ever going to maintain an off the charts BABIP, it's a guy hitting the ball like that. I almost wonder if he'd be slightly better off pulling the ball a bit more to get to his power more, at the same time he hit so many bombs to right-center...why pull the ball when you can hit with power to all fields...I'm dreaming of a Yelich-Hiura over 1000 OPS each back to back in the lineup.
  10. KeithStone53151
    Is anyone seeing what Freddy is doing in winter ball? He's incredibly impressive, not just his numbers but the stuff I'm seeing. I'm fairly confident I've seen highlights of both a changeup and a slider to go with his curve and fastball. I hope he gets shut down sooner than later to prep for 2020. The idea of him and Burnes forcing their way into the top of the rotation with Woodruff would be a serious game changer. Between the 2, I would find it weird if at least one of them didn't find another gear in 2020...but since this is the optimism thread I'm going with a playoff rotation of Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Stroman/Ray.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Of the 8 teams remaining, the only team I think I'd prefer to play against over the Seahawks is the Vikings...if only because we've beaten them twice already. In the playoffs, you have to beat good teams. We are very fortunate with this matchup, but obviously still need to take care of business. One big time key to this game, having a zebra crew that actually calls defensive holding/illegal contact/defensive PI. I'm pretty sure Pete Carroll coaches his guys to commit penalties every play because they can't throw a flag every time. Seattle I think had a dozen penalties yesterday and most were in their secondary. I'm also concerned that even if we win, we'll wind up with a couple injuries that will hurt us in the next round. I'm sure you all saw the hit on Wentz, Seattle is a dirty dirty team. I feel like our defense matches up pretty well on paper with the Seahawks. King is a bigger, more physical corner that can match up with Metcalf. Alexander is quicker and can match up with Lockett. My guess is we play a lot of man coverage with a spy on Wilson. Their run game is good, but I think we'll do a decent enough job on it. Offensively, the Seahawks had a lot of trouble with runs off tackle and to the edge. Scott and to a lesser degree Sanders were ripping off big chunks on outside runs. That sort of thing is right in Jones wheelhouse, I hope MLF took notes.
  12. KeithStone53151
    Makes me a bit curious their plan for Kieboom. Adds credibility to any Kieboom for Bryant rumors.
  13. KeithStone53151
    This made more sense before we signed Smoak. I understand Smith can play a very mediocre at best corner outfield, but we're already going to have one of Braun, Garcia, Smoak sitting everyday. I wouldn't mind the idea of trading for only Lowrie and a lot of salary relief, but I'm not sure how great I feel about him as our everyday 3b.
  14. KeithStone53151
    I wasn't comparing Robert to Mookie, didn't mean to give that impression. I was throwing out arbitration numbers for an elite OF talent that went through the arbitration process. So let's say Robert more or less is equivalent caliber player to Betts, then the White Sox made a great move in locking him up...plus factor the option years. I'll throw out another guy that's a bit more reasonable, George Springer. It's not exactly apples to apples as Springer signed a 2/24 deal in 2018 buying out 2 arb years. Springer has posted 22.6 WAR over the last 5 seasons(I'm ignoring his 1/2 a year as a rookie). Springer was projected for $10.5 in 2018, so he probably left a few million on the table. He's made $29 million so far in 5 years, and is projected for 21.4 in his final arbitration year. So maybe without the 2 year deal, Springer gets $53-55 million. So even if Robert is Springer, this is slightly team friendy...and then when you factor in the option years it's that much more team friendly. I will generally agree with you that this is a pretty good deal for the player considering some other deals we've seen(Salvador Perez, Jose Ramirez, Christian Yelich, etc). I still think the latter is likely, I suspect team control will shrink from 6 years down to 5 years with the new CBA. If not that, they'll at minimum get rid of the loophole allowing 6.5+ years of team control with the service time manipulation.
  15. KeithStone53151
    I'll add Mookie Betts as a comp here. He's made $32.5 million and projects for another $27.7 million in arbitration. His first 6 seasons will pay him roughly $60 million. And those numbers will continue to climb for elite players. That $60 million now is probably equivalent $70-75 million 6 years from now. It's also possible the new CBA reduces team control, and the White Sox know this is coming. Bottom line, this deal becomes team friendly if the CBA changes and/or if Robert becomes a perennial all-star. This gets even more team friendly based on those option years, though worst case scenario for Robert is he's underpaid by maybe $12-15 million per year for 2 years(tough to imagine a top OF not named Mike Trout making more than $35 million per). Of course, Robert could be more Lewis Brinson than Robert Acuna and this deal looks really stupid for the White Sox a few years from now. I wouldn't say either side made a bad deal. The $50 million is probably in the midpoint of potential outcomes based on what we know of Robert. It also adds cost certainty for the White Sox.
  16. KeithStone53151
    If Hader gets traded, it will probably involve someone of roughly the value of a gleybar torres at the time of trade coming back...or he won't get traded. Everything up here is of course speculation. I'll add I'm definitely bored of all the Andrew Vaughn talk. Why do we want to trade for an undersized RH 1b in the low minors? I get he has the draft pedigree, but this guy basically needs to post 950+ OPS at the MLB level immediately upon callup or it's an awful trade...if he's more of a high average, low power, 850 OPS guy that he projects to be...you can too easily replace 90% of that value in FA for a couple million. Pick a different centerpiece...
  17. KeithStone53151
    This is fantastic news for my dynasty fantasy baseball team. Hard to blame a player for taking set for life money, even if he's potentially leaving double that on the table if he's a star.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I saw this too. I thought the defense took a notable step back once he got hurt. Is it possible he steps in for meaningful playing time? Or is he more of a special teams guy given he hasn't played in so long?
  19. KeithStone53151
    Welcome! I think that trade value site undervalues what Hader would go for on the market. It's not perfect but it's all we have I get that. I like the Dbacks offer better, that comes off to me as reasonably fair value actually. Duplantier is a good buy low guy, and the other players have some legit upside. Not as big on the White Sox trade. Hard for me to get excited about centering a trade on an undersized RH 1B that is frankly a mediocre at best defender. I don't think he actually projects as a 60 grade power guy, I think he'll hit very well but more of an average than power guy. Don't get me wrong, that has value...but I'm not sure I want him to be the centerpiece for the best reliever in baseball. Bringing in a guy like Beer who is the 3rd best piece in the trade makes more sense.
  20. KeithStone53151
    With Thames gone, we add 75 extra balls in play versus K's. With Anderson and Guerra gone, the Brewers save about 40 baseballs that otherwise end up in the bleachers. So technically we got SOME return...
  21. KeithStone53151
    I think the Hill deal is pretty smart for the Twins, and really for both parties. The incentives probably should require 20/100 to max out, but it protects the Twins quite a bit if the guy simply never pitches.
  22. KeithStone53151
    Even if they "absolutely CAN" afford it (which neither the posted article nor any poster on here truly knows), it has been proven time & time again that large money free agents often turn our poorly and have very real long term consequences, especially for teams with less resources at their disposal. Again, just because the Reds or the Padres or the Phillies or whoever else does it, does not make it a wise decision. If we finish with a better record (yet again) than the aforementioned teams & all the others that outspent us, will you still feel vindicated? I'll also add, currently the Reds payroll only projects a few million more than the Brewers this year and about $15 million less than our 2019 payroll. Just because they issued more in new contracts this year doesn't paint the whole picture.
  23. KeithStone53151
    When NFL negotiations were happening, the players union was calling for teams to open their books. The Packers books are available but no other team made theirs available. If those numbers above were closer, it would technically be possible for both to be accurate. Operating income is different from net income, the latter number factors in non-operating expenses/income...which for the Brewers is probably mostly related to debt(interest, fees, etc). I would buy there being a chance that both could be accurate if they were more like $10-15 million apart...but in this case one or none are clearly right. My guess would be that Haudricourt is correct and Forbes is wrong...but at the same time I would find it wildly unlikely that the Brewers suffered an operating loss in 2019.
  24. KeithStone53151
    Exactly. Nobody on the players side cries about the salary cap in the NFL. The collectively care about what % of the revenue in total is going to player salaries. We only hear about the complaining in MLB about the Luxury tax because the teams that actually CAN spend more and not lose money are the ones hiding behind the Luxury tax, and those owners have to absolutely love the narrative that it's actually these small-to-mid market clubs that are to blame for the lack of spending. It's insanity. I mentioned this idea a year or two ago when that agent guy came on here and lectured us on baseball economics and how we know nothing...and he was super dismissive. Maybe it was just that guy though, maybe Boras and others would be more open. I'm pretty sure that guy wouldn't be happy if players got 150% of baseball revenue. Anyways, I thought of the NFL as an example. Players bargained for X% of the revenue, that was the primary goal. A cap and floor were instituted to ensure that, and they also have significantly more revenue sharing than MLB. If you want competitive balance, that's the way to do it. If you want the same 6-8 teams to make the playoffs every year...keep the current format.
  25. KeithStone53151
    I've never understood the arguments against a salary cap and floor with massive revenue sharing...at least on the players side. I can see why big markets wouldn't like it, but why would players dislike it? If the cap and floor were set in a way that would guarantee players a similar revenue percentage to what they are getting now...what's the problem? A cap and floor would prevent stupid offseasons like 2017 and 2018 where teams didn't spend and everyone cried collusion.
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