KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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I feel like we should include the phillies on here. They are only 2 back in the loss column, and they also play the Nationals 5 times down the stretch. Best case scenario is them hanging on the periphery of the playoff race...enough for their games against the Nationals to all matter.
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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
For the division, the Cards and Cubs have 3 against the Dbacks and Pirates. If they each get 2 of 3, they would be at 87 and 84 wins. They play each other 7 times which means 7 guaranteed wins. Even if you divide them up perfectly, both teams would be at 89 wins(and let's be real, it won't divide up so nicely for us). So unless the Dbacks/Pirates can get 2 of 3 from contenders, there's really no route to winning the division besides getting to 90 wins...which is 8-2 at this point. There are a ton of routes to the wildcard...6-4 has a fairly realistic shot at a wildcard, even 5-5 has a shot. -
2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I've been running scenarios this morning, I really don't think we can win the division unless we can get to 90 wins. That means 8-2 down the stretch. Might be more realistic to root Cardinals here and improve our WC odds. I'm still hemming and hawing on that. -
2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
KeithStone53151 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Nationals have off today, but then play 11 games in 10 days to close the season. I think it's actually pretty important that the Phillies hang on the periphery of the playoff race. They have the Braves today and then 3 against the Indians, so that won't be easy. But after that they have 5 in 4 days against the Nationals. The Phillies getting 3 wins probably would sink the Nationals...especially if they can't get a sweep this weekend against the Marlins. -
From what I heard it was 100% a judgment call. Right or wrong there was no reversing it once it was made. Im not sure how you can judge that grisham impeded the catcher in anyway when the ball deflected off him. I think they must have ruled it that since it deflected, he was automatically out, which is absolutely not correct.
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Hahaha wow, you're words are way worse than mine. I kinda would like a mod to authorize my word choice as i use it a lot. Anyways... well done
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Anyone else notice that the call on the grisham play was 100% incorrect? The brewers should probably contest that play...
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Anyone else enjoy schwarber crying about garrett's reaction? Maybe he should stop pimping his hr if he's gonna get so upset about that. Edit, i accidentally tripped the cuss filter with a word that kinda surprises me is on there... but my bad and i edited
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That would be OK, but I’m afraid that if the Brewers only win 3 out of 5 they are putting themselves in a dangerous position. Getting 4 out of 6 next week is going to be tougher than 4 out of 5 on the home stand. The Reds pitching has the potential to give the Brewers a lot of trouble. Oh agreed completely, these 5 games won't be as tough as the 6 road games. I guess I'm being cautious with the 3 of 5 prediction...don't want to be too greedy on paper. Definitely don't consider this me simply settling for 3 of 5 here...I want all 5 and to be ahead of all these teams heading to the final week.
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I can understand why they went with this lineup. Clearly very lefty heavy, but obviously kept Arcia in there for defense. Man, I'll be surprised if Arcia makes any contact against this guy...even a foul ball.
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The Brewers are 14-3 since Suter met up with the club on August 31st. Just saying...
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If the Cubs lose today, I'll be hoping the Cubs get 3 of 4...otherwise I think I'm with you on the split. A cubs loss today and 3 of 4 against the Cards, along with us getting 3 of the next 5 would make the standings Wash 86-68(I'm assuming they sweep the Marlins, but you can do the math if they only get 2 of 3 here) Chic 85-71 Stl 86-70 Milw 85-71 Obviously would be so much better to get 4 of 5...but let's be real, we're not winning out the rest of the way and 4 of 5 is also a pretty high expectation. I would be very content if the standings looked like this heading into the final week.
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Too bad Cardinals hung on. Amazing that a lost ball in the sun and a home run robbery both going the other way...turn this game into a Nationals win. At least this helps out WC chances. Lester has had some reeeeeeeeeally bad games lately, hopefully he posts another stinker today and the Cubs drop a game back. I'm curious what the baseball nerds will think of our playoff chances with a Brewer win today. Hopefully we can figure that out tomorrow morning.
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I'm generally with you on being anti-Perez. What they will think he adds is he can play everywhere, he's sure handed, probably a hair above average speed, high baseball IQ, emergency catcher...allowing Pina to PH more freely, and you hope his atbat is against a lefty if/when he hits. I would forsee Perez either getting burned in the 4th inning of any playoff game, or not seeing the field until extra innings. Any key late inning AB would for sure go to someone else.
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My thought on wildcard is they'd first take the pitchers they for sure plan to use to get through 9 innings. Say something like 2-3 available starters, Hader, Pomeranz, Guerra. Then they'd add any position player they might potentially use. Then fill out their roster with a couple pitchers and at least 1 extra innings contingency arm. The number of extra pitchers probably depends on how many position players they deem potentially useful in a 1 game playoff. It would be really funny if we go into a game like this against the Cubs. We'd have 9-10 pitchers while Maddon has 13...and he'd use all but 2 to get through 8 innings.
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How fun would it be if Robles hit one on the same line, but 20 feet further?
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Dexter Fowler robs a 3 run hr, how annoying.
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I think the chances of the Nats missing the playoffs are pretty low. With 3 games against Miami and then 8 home games they should be good for at least 90 wins. If the Brewers get a wild card game it will be against the Nats, Cards, or Cubs. I would rather it be the Nats because a loss to either of the other two would be infuriating. Still hoping for a Nats comeback today. Ehh. Their schedule might be the toughest of the 4 contenders for 3 spots in the NL. When in Miami, they'll roll out only 1 of their 3 horses. There's definitely a chance Miami takes a game off them.
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Looks like Lamet's velocity and spin rate have slowly been trending upward since his injury. His whiff rate is kinda ridiculous on his offspeed stuff...especially against RH hitters. It's absolutely critical that we pile up lefties today. Grisham Grandal Moose - 2b Braun Thames Gamel Spang - SS Shaw - 3b P Yes, I would be that drastic with the lineup today.
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The first 4 games are at Wrigley...the Cubs have weirdly played soooooo much better at home than on the road this year. I would actually be quite surprised if the Cubs didn't take at least 2. I'm kinda expecting a split personally.
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I think you mostly got it right, though I'll note what I think will be different. For starters, I doubt we carry 13 pitchers. Last year in the DS we carried 11 I think...with this staff I think 12 is more realistic. I also think Anderson is pitching well enough to make it. So with Anderson in, I would probably cut 2 of Suter, Jackson, Black, Albers, Gonzalez. Suter would only be cut if they value having a 12th guy with no restrictions...while Suter probably can't go back to back. With the extra spot freed up for position players, I think Perez makes it over Shaw. It's also possible they go with Taylor for speed over Perez, but Perez is more likely due to positional flexibility. I figure Perez over Shaw for another RH bat. I'll also add this only makes sense for the DS and CS. Any wildcard game will probably have maybe 9-10 pitchers and a ton of position players...which probably includes Shaw/Perez/Freitas/Taylor.
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Exactly, and this will be the case for at minimum a majority of the Cubs/Cards games. It's possible by those last 3...we'll have a clear cut team we're rooting for, but it's very clear this team controls its own playoff destiny at minimum. It gets more and more exciting every day.
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Oh what a lineup we have today. Grisham Grandal Moose Braun Hiura Thames Cain Woodruff Spang Mildly annoyed that Grandal is starting yet again, I hope CC knows what he's doing.
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This is Aaron Hernandez/Michael Vick territory for me. Far beyond domestic violence. Bad bad bad bad bad.
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I get that thought, but he simply can't and won't catch everyday. I looked up the game logs on a few catchers with the most games played this year, JT Realmuto had a couple instances of catching 6 straight days. Yadier Molina recently had a stretch of catching 9 straight days, which is for sure the most in a row aside from Grandal currently at 12 in a row, not counting today. Even if Pina isn't ready, there's no way he's catching the next 6 games in a row. Today seems as good a day as any to let Freitas or Nottingham do it and get Grandal off his feet for a day. Can't let Grandal wear down and be useless down the stretch.