Of course they aren’t going to keep winning 80% of their games like they have the last few weeks. But they have gone 42-24 since their 7-15 start. That’s a pretty long period of good play to expect that they are going to suddenly fall on their faces. Maybe they will, but there have been enough key personnel additions (McLain, Abbott, DeLa Cruz, Votto to name a few) to suggest that the last 66 games are a better indicator than the first 22. They have gained 10 games on the Brewers over those 26 games.
The Reds starting pitching has been pretty bad from the beginning, and hasn’t been helped by injuries to Greene and Lodolo, but it does seem like they’ve pieced together a decent bullpen over the last month or so.
I looked today and saw that Fangraphs projects both the Brewers and Reds to finish 82-80. That reflects an expectation that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds flatten out. I wonder if some of those projections have a hard time with a team with a lot of new players because to me that offense looks like it is for real, with enough weapons to overcome a few players returning to earth. The number of hitters they have with an OPS over .800 is pretty striking.