Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

BruisedCrew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,116

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    That would make sense. I would expect to see Wilson and Milner too. Even with the day off tomorrow I don’t expect to see all of Peguero, Payamps, and Williams, even if the Brewers have a chance to win. This could be a game where the Reds offense breaks out and the Brewers can give several relievers work in a lost cause.
  2. BruisedCrew
    I wonder if the Pirates would be willing to trade Santana to a division team.
  3. BruisedCrew
    With Tellez out for a month now, I think it’s that much more critical for the Brewers to add a major league first baseman, even if it’s a journeyman like Ruf Playing Miller at 1B every day is not a solution.
  4. BruisedCrew
    Very simply, I would go to a 6 DAY rotation not a 6 MAN rotation. I think it’s foolish to have your best starters, whoever they happen to be at any given time, go a full week in between starts even if they might be capable of pitching effectively every fifth day without being overused. There are a few places in the schedule coming up in which there are two off days within 3 or 4 days of each other (see August 10-24 when there are 4 off days and 11 games in 15 days). Using a strict 6 man rotation through that period would mean some pitches having 2 starts 8 days apart. I’d prefer using that period to try to win some games with less stress on the back end of the bullpen, either by “piggy backing” starts or using one or two of the starters. In the bullpen. If I were managing I would be setting the rotation to maximize reasonable use of my best starters and using the pitchers in the lower parts of the rotation to fortify the bullpen in between starts.
  5. BruisedCrew
    I was away from home yesterday and couldn’t see the game but was following its progress. Consecutive 1-0 wins over the Reds is the last thing I would have expected when we left the game last Saturday. At the risk of sounding greedy, the Brewers could really use a game (or more) that they can win without using so many of the key pieces in the bullpen. Those have been few and far between lately and the recharge from the All Star break won’t last long.
  6. BruisedCrew
    Since you’re touting these projections, I assume that means that you wouldn’t consider someone to be a pessimist if he thinks that the Brewers are going to continue to play around .500 for the rest of the season.
  7. BruisedCrew
    I think the most relevant words here are “it’s impossible to predict”. Which is why I look at those projections for entertainment more than any kind of precise measure of the actual probability of a particular outcome. When you pile projections about how much certain players are going to play on top of projections on how they are going to perform and try to use all,of those projections about individual players to estimate how many games their team is going to win, the result is going to be far from precise. It shouldn’t take much for the Fangraphs projections to be better predictors than fist half winning percentage or first half Pythagorean. Those numbers would not reflect any significant events that took place in the first half such as injuries or player additions that caused the team to be significantly better or worse at the halfway point than it was early in the season. Or, as is true with the Reds and Brewers one team starts strong and then flounders while the other comes on strong after a slow start. When you put together projections on top of projections I’m not sure a projection of 84 wins is significantly different than one of 82 wins. So, I’m going to treat it like a tossup until something happens that changes my mind. Maybe I’m affected by the memory of last season when, if I recall, the Brewers chances of making the playoffs were significantly higher than 54%.
  8. BruisedCrew
    But again, for me it all begs the question of what those simulations are based on. For example, how do they weight recent performance relative to the overall performance to date. If you just take a snapshot of the current standings you see the Reds 1 game ahead of the Brewers. But how do you factor in that the Reds, who added McLean in May, and DeLaCruz and Votto in June have gained 9 games in the last 6 weeks or so on the Brewers, who have been treading water since their quick start in April? The Fangraphs projection is that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds will cool considerably from their pace of the last month, with their offense cooling off and their pitching getting worse than it’s been. They have the Reds finishing 32-39, which would be a pretty dramatic comedown from their last month. My old fashioned gut reaction is that the NL Central is going to be a two team race and that at this point it looks to me like a tossup. That might change in the next 2 weeks as the Brewers play the Reds, Braves, and Phillies exclusively in their next 15 games.
  9. BruisedCrew
    That all begs the question of how exactly those projections grind through individual projections to reach a conclusion about teams. I tend to look at them for entertainment value but not like actual mathematical probabilities. i question how well those projections work on teams that have so many players with not much of a MLB track record and when teams have injured players whose return is uncertain. If we’re going to take these projections as an accurate reflection of probabilities, we have to accept that the Cardinals still have a 5% chance to win the division. Do you believe that?
  10. BruisedCrew
    Fangraphs projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 84-78 and the Reds at 82-80. Given the nature of these projections that amounts to a virtual tossup.
  11. BruisedCrew
    I didn’t see Weaver listed as one of the Reds’ probable starters for this weekend. Regardless, I’m not concerned that what Burnes said will have any impact on the games. If the Reds can’t be motivated by playing the team that is one game behind them in the division race they’re in the wrong business.
  12. BruisedCrew
    A rare ASG win for the Brewers league. I’d like to think that it’s just a coincidence, but dominance in the game went from the NL to the AL just about the time the Brewers changed leagues.
  13. BruisedCrew
    I’m not sure what you can do to change the All Star Game itself. The game has become less entertaining over the years, partly because the proliferation of closers tends to shut down the offenses. Also, the desire to get in as many players as possible (some of whom are already replacements) means you don’t see as much of the game’s biggest stars. I remember when players like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron would play the whole game and get 4 ABs. Even with its problems though, the baseball ASG is the only one of the 4 major sports that actually looks like a game. The no defense spectacles in the NBA and NHL are a complete joke. At least the NFL got the message and ended the charade completely.
  14. BruisedCrew
    Not a game thread goes by without some calls for “Robots” and/or claims that “a strike is a strike”. This article covers some of the challenges facing the possible implementation of automated balls and strikes. What is a strike The most “striking” things to me in this article are (1) that (no surprise) there is no consensus on where an automated strike zone should be drawn, and (2) the fact that the strike zones shown on TV telecasts are not the same as the zone on which umpires are graded. I remain in favor of automated balls and strikes if only to create consistency and to eliminate any risk of an umpire being influenced by players involved or the game and home crowd situation. But, in the meantime it would probably be a good idea not to get too excited about “blown” calls that are right on the edge of the TV graphic strike zone.
  15. BruisedCrew
    I used to enjoy watching the Home Run Derby, but my interest waned over the years and the new format completely turns me off. I understand the problems with the original format as players would take several pitches at a time both to rest up and wait for perfect pitches to hit. So something had to be done to introduce a time element. But I think the current machine gun format removes the enjoyment of seeing majestic blows sail into the stands, and wears the players out as the rounds proceed. I don’t care enough to think too much about it, but I think the event would be more watchable if they introduced a limit on how many swings each player got per round, and a time limit on getting those swings in. A new pitch could not be thrown until the ball lands on the previous pitch. It would make the event more like a 3 point shooting contest. For anyone old enough to remember the old Home Run Derby shows that aired in the late 50’s and used to be shown occasionally on the MLB network, a variation on a format like that with “innings” where each player got so many swings or “outs” per inning would be more entertaining to me than what they do now.
  16. BruisedCrew
    I think 538 is out of the sports projection business. Their projections were last updated on June 21.
  17. BruisedCrew
    The latest report on Woodruff is that he threw 25 pitches in the bullpen today and will throw another session on Thursday if he has no I’ll effects.
  18. BruisedCrew
    I’m not sure about who should start, but if the Brewers follow past practice they won’t start Burnes on Friday after the All Star trip. I’ll be surprised if they skip Peralta. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they hold Houser for the bullpen since they have an off day right away on Monday. I’d be a little skittish about letting the Reds see Miley again so soon. My guess is Peralta on Friday, Miley or Teheran on Saturday, and then Burnes on Sunday.
  19. BruisedCrew
    I didn’t see anyone questioning it when I predicted in about the fourth inning that it wouldn’t end 1-0.
  20. BruisedCrew
    Probably not until at least August. He still has to throw off the mound another time or two and then pitch a few rehab starts in the minors.
  21. BruisedCrew
    I’d say the odds were definitely in favor of that one.
  22. BruisedCrew
    It was somewhat bizarre, but the real thing for me was that I’ve never seen a pitcher fall asleep that badly before. DeLa Cruz stole second. Nothing unusual there. Then he took third on what amounted to defensive indifference. Anderson was way of the bag and he made no attempt to cover and risk opening a hole for the hitter. On what happened next, at the games we’ve attended, we have often seen runners take leads almost halfway to the plate when the defense is shifted and the third baseman is playing way off the base. The pitcher always keeps an eye on him (which is usually the intent of the runner) and some times the third baseman will move over to the bag to force the runner back. But here Peguero completely ignored him and Anderson must have been napping too, so with the pitcher’s back to him he took off for home with no chance of being caught. I get why the national media is gushing over it, but in my book it was much more a boneheaded mistake by the Brewers than brilliant baserunnjng.
  23. BruisedCrew
    A bold prediction. This game is not going to end 1-0. Therefore, more runs are recommended.
  24. BruisedCrew
    I have been paying more attention to the Reds since mid May when they started to show that they were better than indicated by their 7-15 start and might become a challenger in a weak division. It seems like a significant number of their games follow a pattern similar to yesterday's. They often fall behind early because their SP is weak, especially with Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft injured and/or ineffective. But, their offense often is able to bring them back and if they get into the middle innings close they win more than their share. They seem to have put together a solid bullpen featuring the guys who paraded into the game yesterday. If the Reds have an Achilles heel, it might be that they have an issue very similar to the Brewers. They often need to use 3-5 relievers to get to the end of games they win. As a result, their core relievers (Farmer, Diaz, Gibaut, Young, and Sims have appeared in 42, 41, 41, 39, and 36 games. That's even more than the Brewers have used most of their top relievers. If those relievers start to wear down, the Reds may start losing more of those games that they have been pulling out over the last month. At the deadline, I think the Reds priority should be trying to beef up the middle relief core, not trying to go high on the top available strters.
  25. BruisedCrew
    That sure looks like a BS call followed by a BS ejection. I think umpires have to file some kind of a report to the league about ejections but I wonder if the teams submit something with their “complaint“ about an incident like that. I understand why they don’t want things aired out too much in public, but the supervisor of umpires has to be able to look at it objectively and not automatically take the umpire’s side. I don’t think anybody wants to turn the clock back to the beginning of the 1988 season when they decided to enforce the pitchers coming to a one second stop before delivering a pitch. The result was a complete farce of balk after balk and eventually they had to pull back on that. if what Uribe did was a balk, I think there would be dozens of them every game.
×
×
  • Create New...