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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    They were in danger when I posted that after Zach Davies gave up 5 runs in 3 innings to put them behind 5-1. So now the DBacks are 23-35 since July 1.
  2. BruisedCrew
    The way things are trending the most likely scenario in the WC round would be the 2nd place team in the division playing the Phillies and the winner of the division playing whoever emerges as the final WC team. The Brewers are still 5 games ahead of the final wild card spot. If they fall that far they would probably be in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Those 7 games against the Marlins are looming large. Note: I am NOT expecting or assuming that the Brewers are not going to win the division or that they are going to miss the playoffs.
  3. BruisedCrew
    As the Cubs polish off their sweep of the Giants, the next hurdle in their supposedly more difficult schedule is the DBacks, who are threatening to lose their 8th of their last 11. The DBacks have gone 22-35 since July 1, which is even worse than the Giants 24-34.
  4. BruisedCrew
    Meanwhile Hicks is cruising into the 7th inning with a shutout over the Giants. I don’t think waiting for the Cubs pitching to collapse is going to be a good idea.
  5. BruisedCrew
    It often is.
  6. BruisedCrew
    I wasn’t done with my post because this site often resets. I had to add the second sentence later. I was referring to the 3-1 pitch that he swung out of his shoes chasing.
  7. BruisedCrew
    Contreras trying to hit one 5 miles wasn’t the best idea when a walk would have put the tying run in scoring position. But I guess after that last “strike” you never know how Bucknor would have called the ball 4 that he swung at.
  8. BruisedCrew
    Cubs are showing what to do when you score 3 in the first
  9. BruisedCrew
    The Brewers announcers were saying that in about the 5th inning today.
  10. BruisedCrew
    Kind of calls into question the notion that nobody would want to face the Brewers in a playoff series because of those 3 starters. That is more than offset by the idea that most playoff teams would much rather face the Brewers batting order than that of any of the other playoff teams.
  11. BruisedCrew
    It wasn’t awful but when an ace pitcher is staked to a 3 run lead against a supposedly weak team and can’t even pull off a quality start, it is not good.
  12. BruisedCrew
    Cubs already up 3-0 on the Giants. Looks like the Brewers will need to pull this one out just to lose one game off their lead in this series.
  13. BruisedCrew
    Peralta didn’t do what was needed today.
  14. BruisedCrew
    I don’t feel comfortable trying to nurse those 3 runs through the whole game.
  15. BruisedCrew
    I would think translating BABIP from the minors to MLB would be a tough proposition. In addition to it being more difficult to make hard contact against MLB pitching, MLB fielding is likely to be a lot better. Whenever I hear someone say a player has hit everywhere he has played, a picture of Hiura immediately pops into my head. I’m very much in the “show me” camp when it comes to expectations for rookies, and IMHO Frelick is in the early stages of that evaluation. That having been said, while I would put Canha fourth before Frelick, neither is a vintage cleanup hitter so who goes fourth and who goes sixth probably doesn’t make mush difference. But, with the bases loaded I’d rather have either before Adames.
  16. BruisedCrew
    Still going to see Williams tonight.
  17. BruisedCrew
    Now need Woodruff to shut them down and squeeze the last ounce of life out of them.
  18. BruisedCrew
    I’m a disciple of the Mr. Applegate philosophy: ”Never feel sorry for anybody”.
  19. BruisedCrew
    Monasterio gets the lid off and now some luck.
  20. BruisedCrew
    I suppose we should be grateful to get one run with bases loaded with none out and the cleanup hitter up.
  21. BruisedCrew
    Looking like Woodruff might have to be near perfect just to keep the Brewers in the game.
  22. BruisedCrew
    Jackson has been pretty effective since being activated by the Pirates in early August.
  23. BruisedCrew
    I don't think anyone would disagree that the Brewers rotation that now includes Woodruff and Miley is better than the Cubs rotation, but the question might be whether that difference is enough to overcome the fact that the Cubs offense is quite a bit better than the Brewers. The Cubs rotation might not hold up, but time is running short for them to fall apart. The Brewers winning percentage depends a lot more on how many runs they score than who the starting pitcher is. To illustrate, the Brewers are only 15-13 in Burnes' starts. Their winning percentages are better in games started by Houser (11-6) , Peralta (16-10) Rea (12-8), and Miley (11-8). Those are all in a fairly narrow range given the number of games. The run support per 27 innings for the entire game started by these pitchers clearly explains a lot of this: Peralta 5.2, Houser 5.1, Rea 4.8, Burnes 4.3, Miley 3.9. The worst example of lack of run support is Teheran. The Brewers are 3-8 in his starts despite 5 quality starts, largely because of run support of 2.8 runs per game. I'm not going to say that who is starting doesn't matter, but as shown by the feast (5 runs or more) or famine (2 runs or less) offense the Brewers have displayed the last 3 weeks. the main question for me before each game is not "who is starting?" but "Can the Brewers score at least 4 runs?''
  24. BruisedCrew
    I think the Cubs bullpen has been better than they get credit for too. I heard a comment the other day that the Cubs had the second best record in MLB when leading after seven innings. Of course that was before they lost back to back games against the Reds when they lost one run leads in the ninth. Still, the most common way I see people talking about bullpens is by looking at the overall ERA of the bullpen as a whole, which can be misleading because it lumps in runs given up by the worst relievers in lost causes or with huge leads with performances in true high leverage situations. A great record when leading after 7 innings can also reflect a team that opens up safe leads going into the late innings. That's something the Brewers have not done that often this season, especially before the 9 game winning streak in which they had a few of them.
  25. BruisedCrew
    This is where I miss the scoring stats that used to be available for free on Baseball Reference. But, I think it would be safe to say that the Brewers last 18 games have been unusual. They have won 11 of those 18 games and have scored 5 runs or more in each of the 11 wins and 2 runs or less in each of the 7 losses. Their high average in the wins hasn’t been skewed by any huge totals; their highest is 10. One of the Brewers strong points in recent years has been winning close low scoring games, but it hasn’t been that way the last few weeks.
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