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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    Winker’s (hopefully) last AB for the Brewers was a productive one.
  2. BruisedCrew
    The bottom line for me is these were some big wins that do nothing to alleviate concerns about the long term prospects.. A team has to be able to win some games without relying on 6 shutout innings from the SP and shutout innings from each of the top 3 relievers. The Brewers aren’t very good at that.
  3. BruisedCrew
    You missed the announcement that Tellez is now out 3-4 weeks after. A “fluke” accident chasing BB fly balls.
  4. BruisedCrew
    Monasterio makes way too many misplays.
  5. BruisedCrew
    And Miller can’t look at the third strike he did. The “heart” of this lineup is sad.
  6. BruisedCrew
    Hoping to get through this Winker at bat with just one out.
  7. BruisedCrew
    His sons are out of high school but his daughters aren’t. He did have the good fortune of seeing his youngest son play for the state championship (which they won) because that was the week the Brewers played in Minnesota Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. So, he was able to see the quarterfinal game on Monday morning and the semifinal and final on Wednesday and Thursday nights.
  8. BruisedCrew
    This has the makings of a Meatloaf game.
  9. BruisedCrew
    They are doing him a favor giving him a chance to play with the hope that some other team might give him a shot. It’s not like he is taking playing time from a hot prospect.
  10. BruisedCrew
    Very tempting depending on what their plans are for starters for the 9 games after the day off. I know I would like to see Burnes pitch 2 of those. Maybe Thursday against the Phils and next Wednesday against the Reds.
  11. BruisedCrew
    You mean still another chance.
  12. BruisedCrew
    I won’t have that problem today. Our spectrum internet and cable service is having intermittent interruptions so if I leave the game on, I might see one pitch before the picture freezes and pixelates. That’s even more annoying than the stadium noise so I have to turn it off. i’ll have to follow the game through the data on my phone.😡
  13. BruisedCrew
    That would make sense. I would expect to see Wilson and Milner too. Even with the day off tomorrow I don’t expect to see all of Peguero, Payamps, and Williams, even if the Brewers have a chance to win. This could be a game where the Reds offense breaks out and the Brewers can give several relievers work in a lost cause.
  14. BruisedCrew
    I wonder if the Pirates would be willing to trade Santana to a division team.
  15. BruisedCrew
    With Tellez out for a month now, I think it’s that much more critical for the Brewers to add a major league first baseman, even if it’s a journeyman like Ruf Playing Miller at 1B every day is not a solution.
  16. BruisedCrew
    Very simply, I would go to a 6 DAY rotation not a 6 MAN rotation. I think it’s foolish to have your best starters, whoever they happen to be at any given time, go a full week in between starts even if they might be capable of pitching effectively every fifth day without being overused. There are a few places in the schedule coming up in which there are two off days within 3 or 4 days of each other (see August 10-24 when there are 4 off days and 11 games in 15 days). Using a strict 6 man rotation through that period would mean some pitches having 2 starts 8 days apart. I’d prefer using that period to try to win some games with less stress on the back end of the bullpen, either by “piggy backing” starts or using one or two of the starters. In the bullpen. If I were managing I would be setting the rotation to maximize reasonable use of my best starters and using the pitchers in the lower parts of the rotation to fortify the bullpen in between starts.
  17. BruisedCrew
    I was away from home yesterday and couldn’t see the game but was following its progress. Consecutive 1-0 wins over the Reds is the last thing I would have expected when we left the game last Saturday. At the risk of sounding greedy, the Brewers could really use a game (or more) that they can win without using so many of the key pieces in the bullpen. Those have been few and far between lately and the recharge from the All Star break won’t last long.
  18. BruisedCrew
    Since you’re touting these projections, I assume that means that you wouldn’t consider someone to be a pessimist if he thinks that the Brewers are going to continue to play around .500 for the rest of the season.
  19. BruisedCrew
    I think the most relevant words here are “it’s impossible to predict”. Which is why I look at those projections for entertainment more than any kind of precise measure of the actual probability of a particular outcome. When you pile projections about how much certain players are going to play on top of projections on how they are going to perform and try to use all,of those projections about individual players to estimate how many games their team is going to win, the result is going to be far from precise. It shouldn’t take much for the Fangraphs projections to be better predictors than fist half winning percentage or first half Pythagorean. Those numbers would not reflect any significant events that took place in the first half such as injuries or player additions that caused the team to be significantly better or worse at the halfway point than it was early in the season. Or, as is true with the Reds and Brewers one team starts strong and then flounders while the other comes on strong after a slow start. When you put together projections on top of projections I’m not sure a projection of 84 wins is significantly different than one of 82 wins. So, I’m going to treat it like a tossup until something happens that changes my mind. Maybe I’m affected by the memory of last season when, if I recall, the Brewers chances of making the playoffs were significantly higher than 54%.
  20. BruisedCrew
    But again, for me it all begs the question of what those simulations are based on. For example, how do they weight recent performance relative to the overall performance to date. If you just take a snapshot of the current standings you see the Reds 1 game ahead of the Brewers. But how do you factor in that the Reds, who added McLean in May, and DeLaCruz and Votto in June have gained 9 games in the last 6 weeks or so on the Brewers, who have been treading water since their quick start in April? The Fangraphs projection is that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds will cool considerably from their pace of the last month, with their offense cooling off and their pitching getting worse than it’s been. They have the Reds finishing 32-39, which would be a pretty dramatic comedown from their last month. My old fashioned gut reaction is that the NL Central is going to be a two team race and that at this point it looks to me like a tossup. That might change in the next 2 weeks as the Brewers play the Reds, Braves, and Phillies exclusively in their next 15 games.
  21. BruisedCrew
    That all begs the question of how exactly those projections grind through individual projections to reach a conclusion about teams. I tend to look at them for entertainment value but not like actual mathematical probabilities. i question how well those projections work on teams that have so many players with not much of a MLB track record and when teams have injured players whose return is uncertain. If we’re going to take these projections as an accurate reflection of probabilities, we have to accept that the Cardinals still have a 5% chance to win the division. Do you believe that?
  22. BruisedCrew
    Fangraphs projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 84-78 and the Reds at 82-80. Given the nature of these projections that amounts to a virtual tossup.
  23. BruisedCrew
    I didn’t see Weaver listed as one of the Reds’ probable starters for this weekend. Regardless, I’m not concerned that what Burnes said will have any impact on the games. If the Reds can’t be motivated by playing the team that is one game behind them in the division race they’re in the wrong business.
  24. BruisedCrew
    A rare ASG win for the Brewers league. I’d like to think that it’s just a coincidence, but dominance in the game went from the NL to the AL just about the time the Brewers changed leagues.
  25. BruisedCrew
    I’m not sure what you can do to change the All Star Game itself. The game has become less entertaining over the years, partly because the proliferation of closers tends to shut down the offenses. Also, the desire to get in as many players as possible (some of whom are already replacements) means you don’t see as much of the game’s biggest stars. I remember when players like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron would play the whole game and get 4 ABs. Even with its problems though, the baseball ASG is the only one of the 4 major sports that actually looks like a game. The no defense spectacles in the NBA and NHL are a complete joke. At least the NFL got the message and ended the charade completely.
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