BruisedCrew
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Everything posted by BruisedCrew
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I’m sure Bauers, Perkins, and Siegler will pick up the slack from Chourio’s absence. 🙄
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September can be even harder to,predict than other months because you can never be sure what a team’s motivation will be. Some teams that are out of contention will just go through the motions while others will load up on younger, hungry Players who will relish playing the role of spoiler. Playoff contenders will have incentive until they have their spot locked up, but then might coast to the finish. Other contenders might fold up when their once seemingly comfortable position starts to slip away For the Brewers I am concerned about the status of the pitching staff as SP keep delivering short starts and once reliable relievers are either out with injuries or are now less effective because of heavy use. I’ll say 12-12.
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The Cubs added some bullpen depth at the deadline and they are getting 6 and sometimes 7 innings from their SP most nights. Their staff is in a lot better shape than the Brewers.
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I first checked the Cubs score around 7:30 and saw that they were ahead 4-0: in the third inning so I decided to write it off instead of aggravating myself following it. When I looked now I see that all I missed was having some brief false hope
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No help from the Braves tonight.
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I think they were only allowed to use bats like that for the players weekend.
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2025 Magic Number Thread
BruisedCrew replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think it would be simpler and clearer to focus on magic numbers to guarantee a finish ahead of each team instead of for a position. The magic number to get the 1 or 2 seed really gets clunky when you take into account that winning the division is a necessary condition. You just have to know that the Brewers have to finish ahead of the Cubs and at least 1 of the other division winners to get a bye I would include both the Padres and Mets (now 13) on the list because their positions are relevant to playoff seeding, which folks will be watching in the last week or two and they are both in hailing distance of their division leads, especially because the Mets and Phillies still have head to head games -
2025 Magic Number Thread
BruisedCrew replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Magic numbers can get a little goofy when you do them this far out. It’s easy to calculate the magic number to guarantee finishing ahead of a team. And you subtract one every time your team wins and the other team loses. But to clinch a spot you have to eliminate every other team. So, using the playoff magic number, every Brewer win lowers the number against everyone, but a loss by the Reds would lower the magic number to eliminate them, but wouldnt affect the number to eliminate the Giants. If you’re saying that 9 is the highest magic number the Brewers have to guarantee finishing ahead of all of the teams currently out of playoff position, I think that’s right. But it’s not as simple as the traditional “Any combination of Team A wins and Team B losses.” Technically the magic number you are using to clinch the division is really the number to guarantee that the Brewers finish ahead of the Cubs. I think it’s safe to assume that the Cardinals (current magic Number of 7) will be eliminated long before the other number gets close to 0. The magic number to clinch the number 1 seed is less clear because the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers are all challengers for that. -
2025 Magic Number Thread
BruisedCrew replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Actually the Brewers are 15 1/2 games away from falling out of a playoff spot. They are 10 1/2 games ahead of the Mets, who are currently in the 6th playoff spot and 14 1/2 games ahead of the Reds who are in the 7th spot. But, the Brewers have clinched the tiebreakser over the Reds. They are also 15 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, to whom they would lose the tiebreaker. None of the "worry warts" are concerned about the Brewers missing the playoffs completely. But they are legitimately concerned that the Brewers might not win the division and will give up the advantages that go with it. After having a 9 game lead just two weeks ago, losing the division would be a massive disappointment for many fans -
I don’t see how you can’t be concerned about the current state of the pitching staff, even with one more arm added. 4-5 innings from starters and the formerly reliable relievers are either injured or fading from overuse. The main competitors in the division added multiple arms at the deadline and that extra depth is going to pay off for them.
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And the Phillies deadline pickup comes in to mop up.
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It’s a gamble when your only deadline pickup is a pitcher who’s already on the IL. Can’t be too surprised that he isn’t going to last long. Now between Megill being gone and other pitchers on fumes from overuse the bullpen is a big question mark.
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Let me try it this way with an example. Suarez was a hot commodity at the deadline.. To be clear I never thought the Brewers had a shot at him or should have paid what it would have cost. Within a week of the deal some people on this site were pointing out how poorly Suarez was hitting for Seattle. He still hasn’t been hitting like he did for Arizona, though he does have 6 HRs. Would you conclude now that that was a bad deal for the Mariners? They are in a wild card position, and Suarez still has time to go on a hot streak. I’m not just talking about one 3 run HR in a playoff game. He could carry the team for a period of time or provide support for their other sluggers. So, I say wait until all,of the returns are in before declaring that a team did or didn’t make good moves at the deadline.
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I think you’re missing my point. What the players did in August is irrelevant. It’s what they might add to a roster in a playoff situation. Some of the relief pitchers that changed teams at the deadline got off to rocky starts with their new teams and new roles. But if they settle in and provide their teams with a string of strong arms in playoff games those early bad outings will be quickly forgotten
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I’ve been focusing on Siegler, not Monasterio. If Siegler is your only left handed hitting option off the bench, and he looks at a third strike in a key situation, that is not random. Someone like Carlos Santana or Castro or several others would have a better chance of success.
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Bauers is in at 1B today with Perkins in CF and Collins getting the day off. Ortiz is at SS. If you squint hard you might see Siegler’s potential value, but he hasn’t provided actual value. Bauers would at least be the best defensive first baseman, and offers at least the threat of a home run or XBH.
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The final verdict on the deadline will come in the playoffs. If the Brewers get beaten in the playoffs by a team that significantly beefed up its bullpen or added a significant veteran bat or two to its bench the Brewers approach might not look so good.
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It’s not the ads themselves, it’s the fact that the site frequently crashes or does not take typing or dictation. I don’t have this issue with any other sites, including message boards. I suspect that having 3 or 4 ads on the site atthe same time has something to do with the performance. I understand that I can avoid the ads by paying for a subscription, as you apparently have. But, I don’t feel like doing that.
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Hah. I definitely don’t have the Packers or Fantasy on my mind. I can’t overstate how challenging it can be for me at times to post on this ad bloated site when using my iPad. It often takes a minute or two after I dictate or type something for the words to actually appear. And frequently the page will crash and reset, erasing what I had already entered. So, when I finish something I hit submit right away before checking for typos like that.
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One feature in the NL playoff race that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention is how the Mets sweep of the Phillies combined with a bad week for the Reds has opened up the Mets cushion in the race for the final wild card spot Just a week ago, the Reds were within a half a game of the Mets and now they are four games back and in a clump with the Giants, Cardinals, and D backs, hoping to make a move if the Mets falter.
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It’s hard for me to think of two players who are more similar than Hoskins and Vaughn. Trying to guess which of them will get hot or produce on a given day would be like flipping a coin.
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They’re professionals. I’m sure they can deal with it.
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Big if. Have to keep the ball in the park, especially against Schwarber and Harper.
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So, with the Phillies loss to the Braves the Brewers made it through the weekend holding even with the Cubs and Phillies and gaining a game on the Dodgers. A series win over the Phillies would be huge.
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Local Boy Drake Baldwin trying to help the Brewers. Now it’s up to the Braves shaky bullpen.
