BruisedCrew

A needed win and series win. Now have to take it to the Pirates.

Boxberger was there in plenty of time to pick up the ball and take it to the bag himself. But either Tellez called him off or he peeled off and Tellez didn’t get to the ball fast enough to make the tag. A ball hit that close to the first base bag has to be turned into an out.

Defensive miscue and a HR and it’s white knuckle time.

I remember sitting a row behind BJ Surhoff’s family when he got his first hit in the second game of the 1987 season. That was pretty cool. His Dad passed away from a heart attack about 2 weeks later.

This lefty is having trouble with lefties. But no trouble with Hiura.

The game reaches the halfway point at an hour and 50 minutes.

And then Yelich with the bullpen shot. He’s had 7 straight good ABs.

Big hit for Mitchell. Good for him. Just getting the ball on the ground to the right side was useful.

2 feet from a 3 run HR for Renfroe.

Cubs are making plays today.

Leadoff double, no HR, no runs.

Yes, I did. 7 AB’s, 10 PA.

Lauer’s walks are putting the Brewers in a big hole. 50 pitches and still in the second inning.

Cubs CF makes a perfect throw to nail Yelich going for two.

In his last 10 PA’s Hiura has a hit, 2 walks, and an HBP so, yeah, a .400 OBP and an OPS of .543. Not worth talking about.

Terrible throw from Renfroe. Anything stronger or straighter and the runner would have been a dead duck.

Here is the (much) longer explanation of why I think the Brewers R/G average is inflated relative to other NL playoff contenders. I will illustrate the point I’m making using the Brewers and Phillies as an example. Using just runs per game, going into play on Saturday, the Phillies are averaging 4.66 runs per game to the Brewers 4.50. That’s not a huge difference; the Phillies have scored 29 more runs than the Brewers and have played 2 more games. But I have been looking at how the NL playoff contenders have performed against the 6 NL teams that are allowing more runs per game than the league average of 4.42: Rockies, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Cubs, and Diamondbacks. Not coincidentally, these teams, along with the Marlins, have the worst W-L records in the league. I am intentionally excluding the Marlins from this discussion because their pitching has been pretty good. Their R/G allowed of 4.20 is slightly better than the Brewers’ 4.32. A team doesn't get any expected bump in run production by playing them. Using the tables on Baseball Reference that list each team’s wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed against each opponent, I have divided each team’s runs scored and allowed into two groups: (1) games against these 6 “Bad” NL teams, and (2) games against all of the “Other” teams. When I did this for the Brewers and Phillies for games through Friday, I find that the Brewers are averaging 5.62 runs per game against the Bad teams and 3.61 RPG against the Others. That’s a pretty significant difference of 2 runs per game. The Phillies are averaging 5.78 RPG against the Bad teams and 4.19 RPG against the Others. That’s more than the Brewers in both categories, but over half a run more against the Other teams. The difference of 1.59 between the two groups is not as large as the Brewers 2.01. Now here’s what I think is the most significant part of this. So far, in the Brewers 124 games, 55 of them (44%) have been against the Bad teams. The Phillies have only had 37 of their 126 games (29%) against these teams, an obvious reflection of being in a stronger division. As an attempt to equalize the teams’ run production based on these different strengths of schedule, I adjusted the Brewers runs by (1) multiplying their RPG against the Bad teams by 29%, (2) multiplying their RPG against the Other teams by 71%, and (3) adding (1) and (2) together. That is meant to approximate what the Brewers run production might be if they played the same schedule as the Phillies. That exercise produces an adjusted RPG for the Brewers of 4.19, somewhat lower than their actual RPG of 4.50. I don’t claim this to be a foolproof scientific method, but it illustrates my point. And the point is that the combination of (1) being more productive against the worst pitching teams in the league, which would be expected for every team, and (2) having significantly more games against those teams than other NL contenders, flattens out the difference between the quality of their offenses. I have done comparisons between the Brewers and the other NL playoff contenders, and the results are all similar. The other contenders, except for the Padres, all have had significantly more productive offenses, especially when factoring in the schedules they have played. Of course, the Cardinals come the closest to the Brewers in games played against these Bad teams. They are averaging 5.87 RPG in 53 games against the Bad teams and 4.14 RPG in 73 games against the Others. In addition to having a better offense overall than the Brewers, they are a half a run per game better against the Other (better) teams.

The difference is that when a pitcher knows when he takes the mound to start a game that the offense isn’t likely to produce more than a couple of runs, he also knows that a mistake early in the game might decide the game. I would think that a starter for the Dodgers would feel less like he has to nibble when he can be more confident that his offense will score 5 or more runs if needed.

A needed win for the Brewers tonight but it’s just another day off the calendar with no progress made as the Padres, Phillies, and Cardinals all win. It’s going to take something like 8 or 9 out of 10 to make up anything significant.

No bunt needed when you hit HRs.

A quick chart of each game starting with the Sunday game in Boston showing the Brewers runs and his and results would answer this question Especially if you disregard runs scored in extra innings courtesy of the free runner, and discount garbage runs scored late in lost games (such as runs scored off of position players pitching).

There was some banter about this after last night’s game, but if I were asked to come up with one word to describe this Brewers team it wouldn't be “entertaining”.

Advantage Cubs now that the game is in the hands of the Brewers bullpen.

No homers for the Brewers = No Runs.

I love how on some of these plays Schroeder says “not even close” when you see it in slow motion. A play like that is close, but it was clear that he was safe when slowed down.