BruisedCrew
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Everything posted by BruisedCrew
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It’s going to be more than a week because the Brewers only have 6 games in the next 9 days and the Reds have 7. So, only 13 opportunities for the magic number to be reduced. But, it is set up perfectly for the Brewers to clinch during the 10 game home stand against the Cubs, Cardinals, and Mets that starts next Friday. If they don’t clinch during that stand a lot of fans, including me, would be getting a little antsy. It has now literally reached the point where if the Brewers win half of their remaining games the Reds would have to go undefeated to tie them.
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Nice inning for Strickland. Throw the ball over the plate and make them hit it.
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Garcia didn’t look like anything was hurting him on that one.
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It will be interesting to see what Counsell does the last 3 innings if Lauer gets into any trouble. Because Hader hasn’t been used since Wednesday and Williams since Thursday, he might want to use them with the off day coming up on Thursday even if the lead is more than 3 runs.
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Now Wong could really provide a cushion. ETA- And he delivers.
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Tempting to use a PH here, but at least Lauer isn’t an automatic out.
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The stupid ivy at Wrigley cost the Cubs a tying run. With a runner on first and two outs a drive in the gap took one hop and disappeared into the vines. Cubs still trail 2-1.
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There are some of the early runs that have been generally missing the last two weeks. Now let’s see Lauer protect them.
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That stinks. Should I give you my number in case you need someone to take the tickets if the Brewers are the home team? I remember having tickets for a show on the night of game 7 in 1982. My wife didn’t even try to talk me into going and found someone else to go with her.
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I also remember the 64 Phillies collapse. That one was memorable in part because the Phillies had been a doormat for most of the time that I was old enough to be aware of baseball and were just a couple of years removed from a historic 23 game losing streak. So, the second coming of the “Whiz Kids” was a big story. Their untimely 10 game losing streak while the Cardinals won 9 of 10 dropped them quickly from sure winners to mathematically eliminated.
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One collapse that people often point to is the 1969 Cubs (year of the Miracle Mets). Only ranks 13th on the link you provided. However, the crazy thing about that year was that the Cubs had a 7.5 game lead with 41 games to play and not only did they not make the playoffs, they finished 8 games in back of the Mets. So, they actually could have had a 15 game lead at that point and they still would have missed the playoffs. That’s why when I think about potential swings I also consider swings like that one, and ones experienced this August by the Red Sox, Mets, and Padres. Losing 11 games in the standings in the last 23 games, which is what the Brewers would have to do now to avoid winning the division, is extremely unusual, if not completely unprecedented, for a team that is in playoff contention in September. But, falling 7 games or more in the standings with 45-60 games remaining is much less uncommon. The 1995 Angels, who head this list, had an 8.5 game lead with 33 games left. But they lost the division not to the Rangers, who were in second place, but to the Mariners who were 13 games back on August 2 and still 11.5 games back on August 25.
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I have Nola on a fantasy team, and he reminds me of the “little girl with the curl”. When he’s good, he’s very, very good, but when he’s bad, he’s horrid. He has occasional dominant games, like when he shut out the Yankees on 3 hits for 8 innings, and when he struck out 10 straight Mets. But his ERA reflects a lot of bad outings. The Brewers offense has been pretty quiet the last two weeks, especially in the early innings. They could use a quick start against Nola to keep him from getting into one of his dominant grooves.
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willy adames to injured list; activated 20 september
BruisedCrew replied to djoctagone's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Under the old rules it was pointless to put a player on the 10 day IL in September. Realized this after I posted, haha. Hoping rest helps. That always bugged me playing Fantasy. You could have a player that would get hurt and couldn’t play, but he wouldn’t go on the IL so the fantasy manager couldn’t put the player on the IL and get a replacement. You could just cut the player, but if it’s a star who might come back, or who you might want to keep for the next season, you were stuck. -
Second time in 4 games the Brewers have allowed 6 HRs. Awesome.
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Magic number down to Roy Howell.
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Is it being too pessimistic to say I don’t think there’s going to be a miracle comeback for the Brewers today. If you had told me at 5 PM yesterday that the Brewers would be 1-1 for yesterday and today I would have taken it. So, I’ll take it.
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This is shaping up as a great day for the Phillies: Diaz blows a save and the Mets lose to the Nats. Dodgers score 4 in the first against the Cardinals to give Scherzer a cushion. Cubs lead Reds 4-3 heading into the 9th. If these things hold they could be gaining a game on 3 of their playoff competitors and a half game on the idle Padres and Braves.
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If only JBJ could learn how to let pitches hit him in the feet instead of skipping over them he could have been on base there. Maybe he needs some lessons from Coach Ernie from Cheers.
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That should be it for Woodruff.
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That’s now no runs and 8 hits in 15 innings against Wheeler. Ouch.
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Hopefully they can work him enough to get him out after 6. Wheeler has thrown over 110 pitches in games several times this year. With as little stress as he’s faced so far I think he’ll get into at least the 8th unless the Brewers can put some runners in scoring position.
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I hope the Phillies don’t win the East. Wheeler and company have the Brewers number.
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I wonder if they also had the 1951 Dodgers at 100% too. 1951 Dodgers were up 5.5 with 22 games remaining on September 6th. Brewers are currently 11 up with 24 games remaining. 1951 Giants (105 wRC+ | 88 ERA-) also appear to have been a better team than the 2021 Reds (102 wRC+ | 103 ERA-). Playoff Odds obviously didn't really exist in 1951, but if they did I don't think they would have had the Dodgers at 100% on September 6th. The now defunct Cool Standings site (I think FanGraphs says their projections are based on the Cool Standings model) had this chart showing the greatest collapses in MLB history up to 2011. http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1&sn=2007 These are based on the highest projected playoff percentages at any point in the season for teams that eventually missed the playoffs entirely. The all time “leader” on this chart is the 1995 Angels, but the 51 Dodgers are second. Their peak percentage was 99.7% on August 13 when they held a 12.5 game lead over the Giants. The chart shows several teams that failed to make the postseason after reaching or exceeding a probability of 95%. I think it’s safe to say that blowing an 11 game lead with 24 to play would be truly unprecedented. It’s a far cry from losing a 7 game lead in mid August.
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Woodruff is serving up BP today.
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Garcia still out and JBJ in CF. Still, on paper this lineup looks a lot better than yesterday’s. Wheeler seems to be throwing close to 100 pitches or more every time out, even when he gives up several runs, which he has in most of his recent starts. He was near perfect in the May matchup with Woodruff as he threw one of his two complete game shutouts this season. The other was a few starts ago against the Mets, but otherwise he has been getting touched up for 4 runs or more more often than not.