BruisedCrew

No hitters aren’t that big a deal to me anymore because they have become much more common than they were decades ago. Winning the game and not overworking an ace pitcher are higher on my priority list.

For the record, I approve of Counsell’s decision.

Phew, that fumble by the RF spared us the possibility of watching Vogelbach demonstrate his sliding prowess. And Tellez’s gapper meant he wouldn’t have to slide into the plate either.

In 1978, 1979, 1987, and 1992 the Brewers won more than 90 games and had a better record than the AL West winners.

Lauer to start in his place.

I’m rooting for the Reds pretty much for the reasons you mention. One game is such a crapshoot that it’s hard to say whether the Reds or Padres would have a better chance of winning over the Giants or Dodgers. In addition to the spending, I’ve come to dislike the Padres because of the ads that run ad nauseum on mlb tv, including several that feature the Padres TV announcer screaming like a madman about FERNANDO TATIS JUNIOR, SAN DIEGOS OWN JOE MUSGROVE, and others.

I think we’ve boiled the disagreement down to the semantics of whether a 95% probability equates to something being “statistically over”. Maybe we should ask Nate Silver if he would agree with that description. When it comes to sports, teams and their fans want real victories, not statistical ones. I don’t think the Cardinals were too happy about their game on Sunday that was “statistically over” when their probability of winning reached 99%. We’re going around in circles here. I understand the cold hearted mathematics of these probabilities and projections. That might not mesh perfectly with the human emotions of fans who can name off the top of their heads at least four teams in the last 15 years that have had probabilities of over 95% of winning a division or wild card berth and failed to succeed.

I don't think it was so much that people were throwing probabilities back in your face, moreso that you have seemed so certain at various points through this season that the Reds were a better team than the Brewers, and that it was only a matter of time before they passed up the Brewers in the standings. People were using probabilities in an effort to point out that you were incorrect, while you seemingly clinged to those ever-dwindling chances of the Reds passing up the Brewers, as you seemingly dug in your heels on the idea that the Brewers were going to blow this. If we want to deal with facts here, the last time I said that I thought the Reds were better than the Brewers was during the All Star break, just after the Reds completed winning the last 3 games of their series against the Brewers. That made it 6 of 7 for the Reds over the Brewers at AFF and cut the Brewers division lead to 4 games, down from a high of 8 after the Brewers 11 game winning streak. Once the Brewers swept the series in Cincinnati right after the break, I never again said that I thought the Reds were better. But, I still looked at them as the biggest threat, and a legitimate threat, to the Brewers winning the division. That really didn’t change as the teams pretty much matched win for win through the rest of July and most of August, including on August 14 when the “statistically over” discussion took place. During that 6 week period the Brewers lead fluctuated between 5 and 9 1/2 games and stood at 7.5 games when the Reds came to AFF with a chance to make a big move if they could win 3 in a row against the Brewers like they did twice already this season at AFF. I have freely owned up to the “Reds are better” statements I made in June and July. I don’t think those thoughts were that outrageous at the time. I remember sending a friend who is a Reds fan a link to this article that appeared on mlb.com as games resumed after the ASB: https://www.mlb.com/news/second-half-prediction-for-each-mlb-team To me, the Reds were still a legitimate threat until the Brewers won the late August series at AFF and followed it up by winning 3 of 4 in SF. If it takes more for me to be comfortable that the team I root for is going to succeed, so be it. But the issue isn’t that I don’t understand how sports probabilities and projections work.

Thank you all for the unnecessary “lessons” about probabilities and projections. I understand perfectly how those projections work and what they mean. It seems like the differences here are over how fans should respond to those probabilities. Some fans can look at a 95% probability of winning the division on August 13 and still want to discuss the remaining schedules and look for the potential rough spots that their team has to overcome. And hope that things like injuries, slumps, or a hot streak from an opponent don’t significantly cut into that probability. When that is interpreted as “panic”, or expecting a negative outcome, there is a disconnect. Since we all seem to agree that a 95% probability of a team winning a division or a playoff spot doesn’t mean that the race is “statistically over” (whatever that even means) maybe we should just leave it at that. It’s obvious that some people are more comfortable when their team has that 95% chance than others are. To me that doesn’t make those feelings right or wrong. I’m just glad that it appears that the 2021 Brewers aren’t going to join the ranks of the 2007 Mets, 2011 Red Sox, 2011 Braves, and others over the years that have seen those probabilities of 5% or less play out. Or even see those 95% probabilities of success drop to 50% or lower.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of probability do you associate with “not being particularly worried” about a team? I know when I look at a baseball playoff game or series, I’m pretty happy if I think my team has a 50-50 chance, or maybe a little better than that, because it isn’t likely to be a lot better than that against any playoff caliber team. That being the case, I would be worried (or at least concerned) about any opponent. And that’s why the projected probability of the Brewers winning the World Series is only around 10%, which is close to the 12.5% that it would be if every game and series were considered a 50-50 toss up. The Brewers getting to the playoffs and having as good a chance as almost everyone else is all I ask, and this year we are getting it.

So, to put this in terms of the playoff probability projections, on August 27, according to FanGraphs, the Yankees had a 97.8% probability of making the playoffs. To use the terminology some have used on this site, it was “statistically over”. The Blue Jays on the other hand had a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. They were statistically dead. Now, two weeks later, the Yankees probability is at 53.8% and the Blue Jays are at 45.4%. Just another reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly things in baseball can turn around. Now, maybe the Yankees will straighten out and claim a wild card berth. But if nothing else, this shows that a probability of 95% or more in baseball does not guarantee anything, and that a certain amount of that 95% includes scenarios that rabid fans will might not find very enjoyable. Like the Brewers in 1982 and 2008 who saw seemingly comfortable situations turn into final day nailbiters.

These are the good old days of Brewers baseball. The Yount-Molitor era was pretty good too because from 1978-1992 the Brewers had several really good teams that were entertaining and competitive but didn’t get the playoff appearances in no small part because of being in the brutal AL East where there were always at least a couple very good teams. Every one of the 7 teams except the Indians won the division at least once in that period and advanced to the World Series. There were a few years in which the Brewers failed to make the playoffs despite having more wins (sometimes several more wins) than the winners of the AL West.

If my memory is correct, in their franchise history the Brewers have only played one game in which they had a playoff spot, and their playoff position, locked in. In 1981, they clinched their spot in the strike expanded division series on the second last day, making their last game meaningless. In 1982 they won the division on the final day. In 2008 they won the wild card spot on the final day. In 2011 they clinched the division with 5 games to spare, but didn’t clinch home field in the division series until the final day. That home field advantage seemed valuable because the Brewers had a much better home record, and the division series played out that way as the home team won each game. In 2018, they clinched a playoff berth with 3 games left, but won the division in Game 163. In 2019 they clinched a wild card berth with 4 games left, but were not eliminated for the division until the final day. In 2020, they backed into a spot in the playoffs on the final day. This year they are on track to clinch the division and home field advantage in the NLDS with several games to spare. They still could be in the running for the 1 seed until the end. The last completely meaningless game the Brewers have played was the final game in 2017, as they were eliminated from the wild card race on the second last day. Considering the history of the franchise, these last 5 years have been pretty remarkable.

The Reds still have the edge in the wild card race based on those 10 remaining games against the Pirates while the Padres play playoff contenders.

Escobar has the HR stroke from both sides.

Urias must have one of the widest swings in MLB. He hits the catchers coming and going.

One big reason the Indians are only .500 is a boatload of injuries to starting pitchers. Shane Bieber for one.

Escobar finding the HR stroke. He just missed in the first.

Urias took the aggressive approach on that one instead of letting the ball play him. Those high bouncers to short are nerve wracking.

We might be seeing Suter soon.

Houser has been kind of perturbing to watch tonight. He’s working slowly and falling behind almost every hitter.

I'm pretty sure Wong would have scored no matter what base he was on. It's a 3 base award. I think it’s two bases on a thrown ball, and three bases on a fair batted ball. So, that one would have been two bases.

With the speed the Brewers have on the bases a triple might score two runs.

Even with the error Houser is having trouble finding the strike zone. Nothing close to the way he was pounding the zone on Saturday.

Urias is intimidated by the Tribe’s speed.