BruisedCrew

The Brewers are in a better position than anyone else to keep that from happening.

The Brewers-Giants regular season games aren’t providing the best preview of what a playoff series between the teams would look like. In the series at AFF the Brewers had the COVID issues in the bullpen and that affected a couple of the games. But, at the same time, the Giants came into the series with their bullpen taxed by a long game in AZ the day before and further challenged by extra inning games in the first two games of the series. They were also forced to throw Sanchez as an emergency starter in one of the games. Now the Giants are having their own COVID issues while the Brewers are still missing Peralta. Tonight’s game will be the first time the Brewers will be facing either of the Giants first two starters, and only the second time they will be facing one of their top 3. If everyone is healthy come playoff time, the starting pitching matchups will be quite different than what we are seeing in the regular season.

I wouldn’t want to count on that working that way in the playoffs. Because the Brewers strength is pitching I expect that their playoff games will be lower scoring. In those kinds of games I like the advantage of batting last as the game gets into the later innings. I can see the preference for playing the NL East team in the division series instead of the possibility that the Dodgers or Giants would be the wild card winner. But whatever advantage that might bring isn’t enough for me to hope that the Brewers avoid the number one seed. I will be rooting for the Giants to hold off the Dodgers and win the NL West. I would be doing that even if the Brewers were in the midst of a 100 loss season. I’m afraid that the Giants current COVID problems, combined with the Dodgers apparently rounding into form for the stretch run, might make it tough for them to hold on.

On July 18th, after sweeping the Reds on the road coming out of the All Star Break, the Brewers were 3.5 games behind the Giants for the best NL record & 7.0 games ahead of Cincy for the NL Central lead. For the last month & a half, the odds of the Crew overtaking the Giants for the top seed have been significantly higher than their odds of losing the NLC to the Reds, which is kind of funny considering there's been comparably little discussion about the more likely, positive outcome than there has been consternation about the less likely, negative outcome. But maybe that's just how the internet works. I think the reason is that as long as the Brewers win the division, the marginal value of the seed is relatively small. But the difference between winning the division and losing the division (and possibly missing the playoffs entirely) is huge to the point of possibly ending the season.

The X Rays on Albies were negative so it looks like he may have avoided a Yelich type injury to the kneecap. Hope that’s true.

While trying to manage a fantasy roster this season I have seen this several times.

Cueto was put on the Covid list because he had some symptoms, but tested negative. So, they kept him away from the team. Because he did not test positive and hasn’t been designated as a close contact with anyone who tested positive, he is not subject to a mandatory stay on the list. If he tests negative again today he could be taken off the list and start tonight. Otherwise, it will probably be Quintana. As others have said, Yelich tested positive and was subject to a mandatory 10 day stay on the Covid list.

How many times in the last few weeks have the Brewers lost a run because of a ball hopping over the fence? I remember one in the Saturday game against the Giants on a ball Garcia hit and one in the second Reds game on one hit by Peterson. In all 3 cases now, the runner that would have scored if the ball stayed in was left stranded.

Nobody has disagreed with that. . Then what the heck is the problem? Yeah if the lead shrinks to 4 games or whatever people are going to freak out. That's how it goes. The problem has come up because I choose to continue to grind through the schedule instead of relying too heavily on projections based on a variety of assumptions. Just like when the Brewers have a 5 run lead in the 7th inning I still don’t want to see the opponent given any life. The real argument from me comes because of the posters who have concluded that my approach means that I expect the Brewers to blow their lead or, even more ludicrous, that I am rooting for the Reds to win.

One of the main reasons why the Reds were able to keep pace-ish with us back in July was because Votto was white hot. Now that he's cooled off and the rest of the team is being asked to do the heavy lifting, they're not. Winker going on the IL hasn’t helped them either.

I would expect him to be starting at least 2 of the last 3 games of the series because of a recommendation to the Giants from Joe Maddon.

Nobody has disagreed with that. I hope we don’t have to find out how people will feel if the Brewers suddenly find their lead cut by 4 or 5 games in the space of a week like we have seen in some previous Septembers. Most fans who have witnessed that (including in the years before Internet playoff probability projections) know that it isn’t fun and would love to avoid even the hint of it.

I have lived in or near New York, Philadelphia, and Detroit, and have friends who are fans of teams there and in many other places. I know that my attitude of not taking anything for granted is not unique to being a Wisconsin native. Nothing compares to the “woe is us” attitude of Lions fans, and multiple championships by the Tigers, Pistons, and Red Wings haven’t affected that. We all live close enough to know how Cubs fans were before they won the series. I didn’t sense that six Bulls titles caused them to suddenly become more positive about the Cubs.

It's been raised because it's a concept discussed widely, both here and all over social media. viewtopic.php?f=156&t=38480 Including the Bucks' championship run, the assumption from a lot of people was that what could go wrong would. And in a lot of ways, that was true historically. Our teams have had a terrible string of performing exceptionally well, and finding a way to fall short of the ultimate prize. Perhaps you're not in the same boat, but many of those/us fans root for multiple Wisconsin sports teams, hence an inherent link between most fans of Wisconsin sports teams. But, the continued item at hand here is that you're posting on a Brewers message board where many/most have accepted the fact that the Brewers are almost certainly going to win the division, and not only do you continue to not believe that, you continue to challenge anyone who says otherwise. Again, this is a Brewers message board, and you're challenging actual historical results and statistical probabilities. I don't think you should be terribly surprised that at this point in the season people 1)don't share your view, and 2)are more than a little bewildered at how insistent you continue to be that the division is still a race and the Reds may catch us. In short, that has to either be a indicative of a negative/concerned view of the situation the Brewers are in, or, as you put it, 'stirring the pot.' The latter is obviously more problematic, but no one has said you can't believe the former. Just own it, and don't be so surprised when other people here disagree. Again, do you have any actual experience that tells you that Wisconsin sports fans are significantly different than others? Your sidestepping of that direct question tells me that the answer is no. Just eyeballing that thread tells me that I don’t have the same “Wisconsin sports” paranoia that some on that thread do. For starters, I not only don’t root for the Badgers, I actively root against them just because people assume that if you live in Wisconsin you must love Bucky. It never occurs to them that some people have allegiances with schools they actually attended, including ones that are rivals of the Badgers. And for all of those heartbreaks listed for the Packers, there are ones like the Seahawks game that I consider one of the most crushing losses that a team I root for has ever suffered. But several of the others are just disappointing losses that are going to happen to a team that makes the playoffs almost every year. But, at least I know the feeling of seeing the Packers win the ultimate prize. But, the Brewers have always been my favorite team, largely because I can actually attend their games on a somewhat regular basis and have done so with our daughters for many years. But, unlike the Packers, the Brewers playoff opportunities have been pretty rare, and even some of those have only come after seeing very favorable positions turn sour in the last month before resulting in final day success.

I've asked this before and you have declined to respond. But, where have you lived where you have been surrounded by passionate sports fans who are less cautious or pessimistic as a group than Brewers fans, especially about a team that has literally never won a championship? I have lived in and near some cities with several professional sports teams (with varying histories of success) and have not seen any significant difference between fans there and Brewers fans, except that Brewers fans tend to be more loyal and less inclined to turn vicious toward their team than fans in these cities. You have raised this point countless times, but I totally fail to see how the Packers, Bucks, or Badgers have anything to do with how a lot of fans react to the Brewers. Maybe I am different, but I don't even root for all of these teams and have different levels of emotional investment in the teams that I do root for. I've seen the Packers win 4 Super Bowls, 4 other NFL championships before the Super Bowl era, and play in many other playoff games. None of that has any bearing on my reluctance to lean back and consider the rest of the Brewers season to be nothing but exhibitions leading up to the playoffs. I wear my seat belt whenever I'm in the car even though I'm quite confident that I won't need it. I look at this the same way.

It seems like you are conflating two true, but slightly different statements. Division or Wild Card leading teams can lose more than 8 games in a month is true. The last team to blow a division lead over 7.5 games as of August 15th were the California Angels in 1995 is also true. The 2021 Brewers situation is closer to the second scenario than to the first. I don't think I am conflating two different situations. I think you are inappropriately limiting the analysis to a very specific situation: a lead of 7.5 games or more on August 15. That ignores situations where teams have lost leads of a similar size in significantly less time, like the 2007 Mets. I also put blowing large, late leads in wild card races into the same category because the same forces are in place. And just completely blowing the lead isn't the point. Maybe those who think the race is over don't care if the Brewers lead is whittled away, but they still pull it out, like they did in 1982. I know I don't want to deal with a situation like that again. So, instead of spending a lot of time on playoff rosters and pitching rotations, I intend to follow the games every day and hope for the Brewers to win or at least not start losing ground until the division is clinched. As I've said before. a lot can happen in a month, including inexplicable slumps, injuries, and succumbing to the pressure of seeing a once sure thing start to slip away.

After the games on July 29, which is where I started, the Red Sox were 63-41 and the Brewers were 61-42. The Yankees were 53-48 and the Reds were 54-49. The Red Sox division percentages were lower than the Brewers because of the Rays being in their division. But, losing 10 games in the standings is losing 10 games in the standings, whether that means turning a 4 game lead into a 6 game deficit or turning a 7 game lead into a 3 game deficit. Or turning an 8 game wild card lead into a 2 game deficit. Did anyone on July 29 expect the Red Sox to lose 16 of their next 28 and the Yankees to win 23 of their next 29? Probably not. The odds of it happening were probably less than 1%. But it did happen. Again, I do not expect the Brewers to blow the division lead, but don’t try to tell me (as some have) that a division or wild card leading team losing more than 8 games in the standings over the course of a month is a once every few decades event, because that simply isn’t true.

I first looked at the remaining schedules on July 30, with the Brewers at 61-42 and leading the Reds (54-49) by 7 games with 59 to play. In the post that opened this thread I identified a block of 26 games for each team in which I thought the Reds had a significant schedule advantage and figured to pick up a few games on the Brewers. The other 33 games for each team included the only remaining series between the two teams and 30 other games where I thought the schedules were pretty even. So, what has happened in the last month, as almost half of those 59 games have been played: 1. The Brewers have gone 18-10 to the Reds 17-12 and increased their lead to 8 1/2 games. 2. By winning the series against the Reds, the Brewers removed the risk of the Reds picking up a quick 3 games in 3 days (as they did twice before this season at AFF) and instead added a game to their lead. The come from behind win on Tuesday might have been one of the most important games of the season because it snatched away a game that appeared headed the Reds way against one of the Brewers aces. There's no way of knowing if that loss had any hangover effect, but I know that it was pretty crushing to Reds fans. 3. Out of the blocks of 26 "Advantage Reds" games, the Reds have taken advantage by winning 9 of 11 from the Pirates and Marlins while the Brewers went 7-5 against the Pirates, Giants, and Cards. That gave them a net pickup of 2 1/2 games. 4. In addition to losing a game in the head to head series, the Reds lost ground in the block of "neutral" games, mainly a result of losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs compared to the Brewers 4 game sweep. Those two things account for a pickup of 3 1/2 games for the Brewers. So, the net result is a very good month for the Brewers. They add to their lead while getting 28 games off the schedule. The Reds still have a significant remaining schedule advantage by virtue of having 10 games against the Pirates and only 5 games in the "neutral" category against playoff contenders. Two of those are against the White Sox in the final week when the Sox will likely have already clinched their division title and locked in the playoff position as the 3rd division winner. But, with time running short, if the Reds are going to make a move it probably has to begin with the Brewers losing 3 or 4 to the Giants and continue with the Reds winning about 75% of their games against the Pirates, Tigers, Cardinals, and Cubs, or hope for a pretty serious Brewers collapse. In other words, something similar to the Mets collapse in 2007. This past month does show how the "if the Brewers just go .500..." scenarios can make the task of gaining ground seem more improbable than it actually is. If the Brewers had gone 14-14 instead of 18-10 in their last 28 games, their lead would be a much less comfortable 4 1/2 games (2 1/2 if one of the additional losses had been to the Reds). During this same time on the calendar, there have been 3 glaring examples of how a playoff contending team losing more than 8 games in the standings in the space of a month is not as uncommon as some seem to think. Specifically: 1. The Red Sox had a 1.5 game lead over the Rays and an 8.5 game lead over the Yankees in the AL East.Since then they lost 10.5 games to the Yanks and 9.5 to the Rays and are fighting more for a wild card spot than the division title. 2. The Mets led the Phils by 3.5 games and the Braves by 4 in the NL East, but in the last month they dropped 11.5 to the Braves and 6.5 to the Phils and are barely breathing in the wild card race. 3. Though they started to slide earlier from having a projected 97% chance of making the playoffs, the Padres were just 5 games behind the Giants and led the wild card field by 6 games. After going 9-17 the Padres are now trailing the Reds by 1.5 games in the second wild card race and, because of a difficult closing schedule, their playoff probability has dropped into the low 20's. Now, do I expect the Brewers to finish something like 10-20 and/or the Reds to emulate the Yankees and rattle off a run of 23-6? No. But, it's baseball, and things like that do happen and have happened already this season.

Who predicted that. The only mention I remember were one warning the Twind hadn't been playing all that bad and would be a challenge and another mentioning this looked like a trap series. I think you are making a straw-man argument here. I had to board a plane shortly after making that post. Maybe I should have put that comment in blue because I don’t think anyone said that the Reds were supposed to sweep the Marlins for the second weekend in a row, or predicted that they would. So, I was responding to a straw man argument with one of my own. The point all along has been that the Reds have had, and will continue to have, a significantly weaker schedule than the Brewers in August and September that, along with the 3 game series against the Brewers, would give them a significant opportunity to gain ground. So far, they have done well against the part of the schedule that gave them the advantage, but gave back the gain plus a little more in the other parts of the schedule.

The Reds were supposed to sweep the Marlins. We might have been misinformed. Were we also misinformed about the Brewers winning a series in Minnesota?

There’s an early crooked number. Need to get that to stand up and get out of there avoiding the sweep.

Another feeble first inning against a bum pitcher.

The Brewers have been horrible scoring early runs for about the last 2 weeks, since the Cubs series. It’s about time to tag one of these pitchers with their 5 plus ERA’s with an early cooked number.

On the field playing catch is something that isn’t likely to aggravate a hamstring injury, but doesn’t give any indication that Escobar will be close to returning within a week.

Because the division race is over it seems like a good idea to give the key regulars every second or third day off.