Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

BruisedCrew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,432

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    It seems to me that assumes that at bats are completely independent events and estimates how many runs a team should be expected to score if each of those events occurs. But, I don't think at bats are completely independent of each other because pitchers might pitch differently based on the situation.
  2. BruisedCrew
    What are those contextual factors (other than ballpark), and how are they better stripped out in a small sample of games? If they can be stripped out for the factors that go into runs created, why couldn't they also be stripped out of total runs scored? Maybe a stat like "Weighted Runs Scored" could be developed, but it isn't done because those advanced stats are designed more to evaluate players than teams.
  3. BruisedCrew
    Speaking of games since the Houston series, this stretch of games illustrates why I like to focus on run distribution, not just total runs scored, to evaluate the offense. As discussed in another thread, I consider games in which the team scores 3 runs or less as "low scoring games" because , based on league wide averages, a team that scores 3 runs or less is more likely to lose than win. Very high scoring games might boost the RPG average, wRC+, and individual stats, but they still only produce one win. In the 20 games since they left Houston, the Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 11 games and 3 runs or less in 9 games. they are 11-0 when scoring 4 runs or more and 1-8 when scoring 3 runs or less, with the one win coming in last night's 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. The Brewers have scored 91 runs in these 20 games and allowed just 66, but the runs scored total is boosted by 3 games of scoring 10 or more, while the runs prevention unit has only allowed more than 6 runs in a game once the 10 against the Tigers on Sunday.. It is apparent that the runs prevention has been much more "consistent" than the offense. If they can keep that up despite the injuries and use of the Nashville shuttle, the team will be in great shape. If it falters, the offense is going to have to be better than scoring 3 or fewer runs in almost half of its games.
  4. BruisedCrew
    I’ve noticed that you often use wRC+ as a measure of how the Brewers offense has performed as a team. I don’t study the intricacies of the latest wave of advanced statistics, but I wonder if that is the best measure. Back about 50 years ago when I first followed Bill James I read about runs created as a way to measure a player’s contributions to his team scoring runs. But, if we’re evaluating a team why not just go directly to the relevant bottom line: the number of runs it actually scored. I understand that wRC+ adjusts the runs created formula to reflect things like ballpark factors, but couldn’t there just be a way to adjust actual runs scored the same way.
  5. BruisedCrew
    Maybe not every single game, but at least 5 out of 6. His potential upside over Frelick is huge, and he has looked much better at the plate in his last few games.
  6. BruisedCrew
    I want to believe that Bauers getting picked off led to Chourio’s HR because Berrios let up with the runner removed. That’s more comforting than thinking that that bonehead move cost a run.
  7. BruisedCrew
    Only took one batter for Levering to complain about how unlucky the Brewers were in Philadelphia. 🙄
  8. BruisedCrew
    I’m sure it was less rare than McGehee, but I sometimes like to use stars from my childhood because they tend to be rarer than more recent players, so today I used Eddie Mathews for that one and it was just 2%.
  9. BruisedCrew
    Does anyone who has discovered some of the ways to retrieve this data also have numbers on this year's overall winning percentages for teams when scoring a specific number of runs? These numbers can highlight the value of a team reaching 5 or 6 runs and the diminishing returns of scoring more than 8 or 9. Last year the win probability jumped from .346 for 3 runs to .486 for 4 and .682 for 5. The Brewers record this season based on runs scored: 0 0-4 1 1-4 2 2-4 3 4-7 4 4-4 5 3-2 6 5-1 7 8-0 8 1-1 9 1-0 10+ 9-0 What stands out from these numbers are the high number of 3 run games, the relatively low number in the 4-6 range compared to the other top teams, and the relatively high number of 10+ games.
  10. BruisedCrew
    My 3 Brewers were: Ken McMullen (.05%), Steve Hovley (0.2%) and Tommy Harper (0.6%).
  11. BruisedCrew
    The catch by Greene on Monasterio was not a robbery in my book. He was camped under it and caught it without jumping.
  12. BruisedCrew
    I think we can chalk this up as an L.
  13. BruisedCrew
    The easiest choice is Frelick at third. That should be a complete non starter. Ortiz should be there virtually every day. Playing someone who isn’t much of a hitter and probably won’t be good defensively at 3B is a waste.
  14. BruisedCrew
    That was an excellent catch by Greene but the ball was high enough off the ground and close enough to him that it’s the kind of catch that you almost expect from major league outfielders these days. It sure helped him on that play to be left handed instead of having to reach across his body and catch it backhanded.
  15. BruisedCrew
    Chourio has had some good cuts in both of his ABs. I’d really like to see more of him and less of Frelick right now.
  16. BruisedCrew
    Poor throw by Chourio. Needed to get it there on 1 hop or less.
  17. BruisedCrew
    Bad play Turang. Take the out.
  18. BruisedCrew
    That’s a dissertation on why exit velocity is IMPORTANT. But there’s a big difference between being important and being everything. You must think that players with low average exit velocities like Brice Turang and Steven Kwan are exceptionally lucky to not be hitting under .200.
  19. BruisedCrew
    The Latin players must love Sophia.
  20. BruisedCrew
    Good win with not everything going perfectly. Peralta stunk but the bullpen bailed him out and the offense took advantage of some Tiger miscues.
  21. BruisedCrew
    Some times an aggressive send comes in handy. A perfect throw could have had Perkins, but being a foot off target let him get in. I would have no beef if he had been thrown out.
  22. BruisedCrew
    Right on cue Rotino goes bonkers over Frelick’s “great piece of hitting”.
  23. BruisedCrew
    I am not confusing anything. I think you and the poster who liked your post are confused and interpreted what I said as “exit velocity means nothing”. Some of the posters on this board are obsessed with exit velocity and that is not “everything” in baseball. If you think those balls hit by Kelly and Canha were lucky “seeing eye singles” as they were described by the announcers, I don’t know what to tell you
  24. BruisedCrew
    I agree that exit velocity helps but couldn’t disagree more strongly that it is everything. Id rather see a hitter take a pitch to the opposite field through a wide hole than smash one into the teeth of the defense. And, as I added, I didn’t hear any complaints about seeing eye hits on Yelich’s RBI single.
  25. BruisedCrew
    I get being homers, but if the Brewers poked singles to right field like Kelly and Canha did, the announcers would be salivating over great pieces of hitting. But when the opponent does it they are choppers and seeing eye hits. Those were not lucky hits. Exit velocity isn’t everything. ETA: I looked it up and the exit velocity on those two hits was slightly higher than Yelich’s RBI hit in the first that made it through a much tighter hole.
×
×
  • Create New...