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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    Wow, did that all come out of nowhere.
  2. BruisedCrew
    That’s more like being handed a run than stealing one.
  3. BruisedCrew
    Or a wild throw by the catcher.
  4. BruisedCrew
    Need a wild pitch now to tie it up.
  5. BruisedCrew
    The Brewers may not be scoring any runs but at least all of the baserunners will keep their metrics up.
  6. BruisedCrew
    No concerns about hitting in hard luck after that pathetic trip through the heart of the order.
  7. BruisedCrew
    The limits on throws to the bases helps too.
  8. BruisedCrew
    And the inning dies.
  9. BruisedCrew
    What a waste of an out. Why not let Chourio steal and at least give Dunn a chance to hit to the right side.
  10. BruisedCrew
    “Another “at’’em ball for this Brewers offense” says Levering as Bauers hits a sharp but routine grounder to the first baseman. I guess he was startled that Bauers didn’t strike out.
  11. BruisedCrew
    I didn’t mention him because he’s not even in the lineup today. A slumping lineup facing the surging Reds this weekend makes me nervous. They will have tough pitchers (Greene and Abbot) going in the first two games.
  12. BruisedCrew
    There’s something wrong with a lineup that has Sal Frelick batting 5th. At least there’s Bauers and Dunn backing him up. 🙄 With Contreras, Yelich, and Adames all slumping it’s hard to know where to look for runs.
  13. BruisedCrew
    I want to spit when Frelick swings from his heels.
  14. BruisedCrew
    “The kind of night it’s been for the Brewers” and “they’ve been “snakebit”. Is Levering seriously trying to tell us the Brewers have been hitting in bad luck tonight?
  15. BruisedCrew
    This could be an interesting weekend. The Reds have been hot and scoring a lot of runs. If they can pull off a sweep it could change the complexion of the standings very quickly. The rest of the teams in the division are all hovering around .500 and in the playoff hunt the way the NL is playing out right now.
  16. BruisedCrew
    That has to be changed.
  17. BruisedCrew
    At least they’re boosting their metrics with 5 baserunners in two innings.
  18. BruisedCrew
    Then it seems that it's better used as a tool to measure a player's contribution to scoring runs than a team's ability to score runs.
  19. BruisedCrew
    It seems to me that assumes that at bats are completely independent events and estimates how many runs a team should be expected to score if each of those events occurs. But, I don't think at bats are completely independent of each other because pitchers might pitch differently based on the situation.
  20. BruisedCrew
    What are those contextual factors (other than ballpark), and how are they better stripped out in a small sample of games? If they can be stripped out for the factors that go into runs created, why couldn't they also be stripped out of total runs scored? Maybe a stat like "Weighted Runs Scored" could be developed, but it isn't done because those advanced stats are designed more to evaluate players than teams.
  21. BruisedCrew
    Speaking of games since the Houston series, this stretch of games illustrates why I like to focus on run distribution, not just total runs scored, to evaluate the offense. As discussed in another thread, I consider games in which the team scores 3 runs or less as "low scoring games" because , based on league wide averages, a team that scores 3 runs or less is more likely to lose than win. Very high scoring games might boost the RPG average, wRC+, and individual stats, but they still only produce one win. In the 20 games since they left Houston, the Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 11 games and 3 runs or less in 9 games. they are 11-0 when scoring 4 runs or more and 1-8 when scoring 3 runs or less, with the one win coming in last night's 3-1 win over the Blue Jays. The Brewers have scored 91 runs in these 20 games and allowed just 66, but the runs scored total is boosted by 3 games of scoring 10 or more, while the runs prevention unit has only allowed more than 6 runs in a game once the 10 against the Tigers on Sunday.. It is apparent that the runs prevention has been much more "consistent" than the offense. If they can keep that up despite the injuries and use of the Nashville shuttle, the team will be in great shape. If it falters, the offense is going to have to be better than scoring 3 or fewer runs in almost half of its games.
  22. BruisedCrew
    I’ve noticed that you often use wRC+ as a measure of how the Brewers offense has performed as a team. I don’t study the intricacies of the latest wave of advanced statistics, but I wonder if that is the best measure. Back about 50 years ago when I first followed Bill James I read about runs created as a way to measure a player’s contributions to his team scoring runs. But, if we’re evaluating a team why not just go directly to the relevant bottom line: the number of runs it actually scored. I understand that wRC+ adjusts the runs created formula to reflect things like ballpark factors, but couldn’t there just be a way to adjust actual runs scored the same way.
  23. BruisedCrew
    Maybe not every single game, but at least 5 out of 6. His potential upside over Frelick is huge, and he has looked much better at the plate in his last few games.
  24. BruisedCrew
    I want to believe that Bauers getting picked off led to Chourio’s HR because Berrios let up with the runner removed. That’s more comforting than thinking that that bonehead move cost a run.
  25. BruisedCrew
    Only took one batter for Levering to complain about how unlucky the Brewers were in Philadelphia. 🙄
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