CheeseheadInQC

Out of curiosity, does anyone know when the DSL is starting? Are they keeping it later or moving it up to better coincide with the ACL?

Once again, my apologies for those of you reading those charts on your phone with needing to side scroll. I need to figure out a better solution.

Yah, I think only Mercado, Mercedes and Aparicio have been confirmed or all but confirmed on the pitching side as coming over from the DSL. I’m kind of expecting about 10 more.

The Brewers have stated a goal of being more successful at signing and developing pitchers from the IFA market, but what level of contributions can the Brewers expect if they achieve this goal? Let's look at some recent data. "We feel great about our processes and evaluating hitters, and certainly something to identify here is how do we identify pitchers?" James Armstrong, Brewers director of international scouting After a long history of struggling to produce hitting prospects out of their international free agent signings, it appears as if the Brewers have finally turned the corner in that regard. It is only natural, then, that they would turn their attention to something perhaps even more elusive: getting contributions from their international free agent pitchers. That raises the question, though. What level of success can we reasonably expect the Brewers to have? That is what I’m going to attempt to answer in this series. This part will focus on the basic metrics of success, what is average and what constitutes above average. The next part will dive deeper into the data looking at potential strategies to see what effect they had (or didn’t) on success. The last will look at where the Brewers stand currently. First, the Caveat Don’t take the stats within this article as 100% complete. They come from me scanning the player pages of players on the bottom two rungs of each organization’s ladder (usually the DSL and what are now known as the Complex Leagues) looking for international free agent signings who debuted during the listed seasons. There is a chance I missed someone or that some of the players debuted at an even higher level. I scanned the top signings for each year to try to avoid an obvious prospect miss, but the guys who come over basically Major League ready aren’t my focus anyway. It doesn’t take a genius to say “Hey, we should sign Roki Sasaki.” Also, I used the years 2014-2016 because I felt they were the most recent years for which most of the players who were going to reach the big leagues from those signing classes would already have done so. It doesn’t map perfectly onto the current situation. The bonus restrictions weren’t quite as onerous. (Remember the teams essentially blowing past the spending limits one year in exchange for capping their top bonus the next two years? You don’t see that anymore). Also, the restructuring of the minor league systems means that some of the pitchers are a bit more likely to see A ball now, and there is also a chance that some of the pitchers could have reached a level higher were they not among the COVID purge. Also, these are the debut seasons, not the signing years. Some players might not even be listed with their signing class if they were injured their first season So, the data set that follows isn’t perfect, but it is the best one that I have. Also, if you are reading this on your phone, my apologies. The tables are too wide and you are going to have to side-scroll to see all the columns. Pitchers By Team and Highest Level Reached table td, table th { border: 1px solid black; line-height: 1.4; padding: 5px 5px; } MLB AAA AA A+ A R Total NL East Braves Total 1 2 2 5 1 26 37 2014 0 0 1 1 0 9 11 2015 0 2 0 2 1 12 17 2016 1 0 1 2 0 5 9 Marlins Total 4 2 1 3 6 26 42 2014 1 0 0 0 2 10 13 2015 1 2 0 2 1 9 15 2016 2 0 1 1 3 7 14 Mets Total 1 4 2 2 2 38 49 2014 0 1 0 1 2 13 17 2015 0 1 0 0 0 18 19 2016 1 2 2 1 0 7 13 Phillies Total 5 4 4 3 3 42 61 2014 3 3 2 2 1 11 22 2015 2 1 1 0 1 13 18 2016 0 0 1 1 1 18 21 Nationals Total 1 3 2 5 3 34 48 2014 0 3 0 2 2 15 22 2015 1 0 2 2 1 10 16 2016 0 0 0 1 0 9 10 NL Central Cubs Total 3 2 2 4 5 28 44 2014 0 1 0 2 2 10 15 2015 1 1 0 1 2 11 16 2016 2 0 2 1 1 7 13 Reds Total 1 0 0 4 5 43 53 2014 0 0 0 1 1 13 15 2015 1 0 0 3 4 13 21 2016 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 Brewers Total 1 4 0 2 2 14 23 2014 0 1 0 1 0 2 4 2015 0 1 0 0 0 3 4 2016 1 2 0 1 2 9 15 Pirates Total 3 1 4 1 1 27 37 2014 2 0 1 0 0 13 16 2015 1 1 1 1 0 6 10 2016 0 0 2 0 1 8 11 Cardinals Total 4 0 3 5 3 16 31 2014 2 0 0 1 2 7 12 2015 0 0 0 2 1 6 9 2016 2 0 3 2 0 3 10 NL West Diamondbacks Total 4 3 2 1 5 40 55 2014 1 1 0 1 1 8 12 2015 2 0 1 0 0 11 14 2016 1 2 1 0 4 21 29 Rockies Total 1 1 2 5 4 18 31 2014 0 0 1 3 1 6 11 2015 1 0 1 0 1 5 8 2016 0 1 0 2 2 7 12 Dodgers Total 3 4 4 5 8 32 56 2014 1 1 0 1 0 10 13 2015 0 1 1 1 2 7 12 2016 2 2 3 3 6 15 31 Padres Total 3 1 6 0 3 29 42 2014 1 1 0 0 2 8 12 2015 1 0 2 0 1 9 13 2016 1 0 4 0 0 12 17 Giants Total 3 4 4 2 1 21 35 2014 0 1 0 0 0 8 9 2015 0 3 2 1 0 6 12 2016 3 0 2 1 1 7 14 AL East Orioles Total 0 1 0 1 0 18 20 2014 0 1 0 1 0 9 11 2015 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 2016 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Red Sox Total 8 2 2 3 4 34 53 2014 4 0 0 1 1 5 11 2015 3 0 1 2 1 18 25 2016 1 2 1 0 2 11 17 Yankees Total 8 2 1 7 4 56 78 2014 2 1 1 1 1 20 26 2015 1 1 0 2 1 19 24 2016 5 0 0 4 2 17 28 Rays Total 4 1 0 6 3 49 63 2014 3 0 0 2 0 19 24 2015 1 0 0 3 3 14 21 2016 0 1 0 1 0 16 18 Blue Jays Total 3 1 3 4 2 29 42 2014 0 1 2 1 0 8 12 2015 2 0 0 1 1 12 16 2016 1 0 1 2 1 9 14 AL Central White Sox Total 0 0 1 1 0 13 15 2014 0 0 1 0 0 6 7 2015 0 0 0 1 0 4 5 2016 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Guardians Total 3 3 3 1 6 26 42 2014 1 1 1 1 3 10 17 2015 1 1 2 0 2 8 14 2016 1 1 0 0 1 8 11 Tigers Total 1 1 1 2 2 31 38 2014 0 0 0 0 1 11 12 2015 0 1 1 1 1 12 16 2016 1 0 0 1 0 8 10 Royals Total 0 2 2 1 2 21 28 2014 0 1 1 0 0 6 8 2015 0 0 1 0 0 9 10 2016 0 1 0 1 2 6 10 Twins Total 5 2 0 1 2 16 26 2014 0 1 0 0 1 3 5 2015 4 0 0 1 0 7 12 2016 1 1 0 0 1 6 9 AL West Astros Total 13 5 8 4 8 51 89 2014 3 2 1 2 6 18 32 2015 5 2 4 0 2 13 26 2016 5 1 3 2 0 20 31 Angels Total 6 3 1 2 0 18 30 2014 2 3 0 0 0 8 13 2015 3 0 0 1 0 2 6 2016 1 0 1 1 0 8 11 Athletics Total 0 2 1 3 3 17 26 2014 0 0 1 0 1 7 9 2015 0 1 0 2 2 4 9 2016 0 1 0 1 0 6 8 Mariners Total 2 1 0 1 2 14 20 2014 1 0 0 0 0 6 7 2015 1 1 0 0 2 3 7 2016 0 0 0 1 0 5 6 Rangers Total 3 2 1 2 2 43 53 2014 1 1 0 2 1 19 24 2015 1 0 0 0 0 13 14 2016 1 1 1 0 1 11 15 Totals 94 63 62 86 92 870 1267 % of Total 7.42% 4.97% 4.89% 6.79% 7.26% 68.67% Key Takeaways Expect Failure, Lots of Failure More than 2/3 of all IFA pitching signees never made it out of rookie ball Just let that soak in. This isn't just a few outliers throwing off the stats either. Every team saw more than 50% of its IFA pitchers debuting in those three seasons never make full season ball. Only the Cardinals really came close. The contraction of one level of rookie ball might throw off the stats a bit, but in general most of the IFA pitchers you sign will never move beyond the Complex Leagues or the DSL. That isn't a mark of failure. It is just unfortunate baseball math. That's not to say that a high ratio here is ideal. You can't expect success when your percentage of pitchers who get released in rookie ball is 90% like the Orioles in these seasons. But in general, if you are around 40-50% reaching A ball, you are doing a decidedly above average job in that regard. The Law of Large Numbers The total number of Astros pitchers who never made it past rookie ball is more than all but eight of the other teams signed total. Their 89 total signings were 11 more than the second place Yankees. In this case, quantity begat quality. The Astros' 13 big leaguers was five more than second place. We'll see in the next chart that they rank high in success metrics among their big leaguers as well. Those second place Yankees? They were tied for second in big leaguers with eight. In fact eight of the nine teams who signed at least 50 total pitchers got at least three to the majors, with only the Reds falling short. There were teams who succeeded despite smaller numbers. The Cardinals, Angels and Twins ranged from 26-31 and still did well. In general, though, more signings equaled a greater chance of success. Now let's look closer at some of the success that those big leaguers have had. A Closer Look at the MLB Players Pitchers Innings fWAR 0 or less .1-1 1.1-3 3+ NL East Braves 1 19.7 1 0 0 0 Marlins 4 535.7 3 0 1 0 Mets 1 34 0 1 0 0 Phillies 5 237.3 3 1 1 0 Nationals 1 146.3 0 1 0 0 NL Central Brewers 1 39.3 1 0 0 0 Cubs 3 303.7 1 1 1 0 Cardinals 4 1281.7 1 1 1 1 Pirates 3 182.7 1 2 0 0 Reds 1 100 0 1 0 0 NL West Diamondbacks 4 270 3 0 0 1 Rockies 1 17.3 1 0 0 0 Dodgers 3 359.7 1 0 2 0 Padres 3 877.3 0 0 0 3 Giants 3 290.7 1 1 0 1 AL East Orioles 0 0 0 0 0 0 Red Sox 8 338 4 3 1 0 Yankees 8 476.3 5 3 0 0 Rays 4 902.7 0 2 1 1 Blue Jays 3 170 3 0 0 0 AL Central White Sox 0 0 0 0 0 0 Guardians 3 127.7 2 1 0 0 Tigers 1 12.7 1 0 0 0 Royals 0 0 0 0 0 0 Twins 5 502 2 0 2 1 AL West Astros 13 2532.7 6 3 1 3 Angels 6 1090.7 3 0 3 0 Athletics 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mariners 2 251 1 1 0 0 Rangers 3 154.7 2 1 0 0 Totals 94 11253.7 46 23 14 11 Per Team 3.13 375 1.53 0.77 0.47 0.37 Pitchers with at Least 1 fWAR Marlins: Edward Cabrera Phillies: Sixto Sanchez Nationals: Pedro Avila Cubs: Javier Assad Cardinals: Sandy Alcantara, Johan Oviedo Diamondbacks: Jhoan Duran Dodgers: Edwin Uceta, Dennis Santana Padres: Emmanuel Clase, Dinelson Lamet, Andres Munoz Giants: Camilo Duval Red Sox: Gregory Santos Rays: Cristopher Sanchez, Diego Castillo Twins: Brusdar Graterol, Luis Gil, Huascar Ynoa Astros: Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Ronel Blanco Angels: Jose Soriano, Jose Suarez, Jamie Barria Takeaways What is Average? Two of the classic ways to look at average are mean and median. In this case, they vary greatly, especially when looking at innings pitched thus far. Part of that is because the Astros have more total innings than the bottom 21 teams put together. The mean would be roughly 3 pitchers reaching the big leagues totalling about 375 innings with one pitcher more than (or at least close to) 1 fWAR. The 3 would still be the median for pitchers, but only 8 of the teams hit the 375 figure. The median would be closer to 210, roughly halfway between the Pirates and the Phillies. And of those Phillies and Pirates pitchers, the last time I looked none were in the big leagues and only two were still in affiliated ball (although the Phillies did get significant trade value from Sixto Sanchez before the injuries doomed his career). The median for the highest fWAR for a team's best pitcher so far I believe would be 0.75. The Bottom is, Well, Not Good It says something about the level of disparity between the Astros and the teams at the bottom when the 39 ⅓ innings the Brewers got from Miguel Sanchez someone vaults them completely out of the bottom quarter of the league in innings pitched. As you can see, four teams had no pitchers reach the big leagues, with none of them averaging even 10 new IFA debuts per season. Another five had only one pitcher make it and got less than 50 innings from him. Not exactly a significant success for much of the league. I'd think that some of this gap might be closing a bit. The Brewers had only just kind of started to really try in the international market after getting their DSL teams back up and running. The Orioles still seemed to fill their DSL roster by rolling a dice every time someone got released from a different organization's DSL squad and if it came up 6 signing them to a contract. Still, the outliers in a negative direction outnumbered those in a positive one. Getting Lots of Big Leaguers is Good, But … Getting a lot of pitchers to the big leagues doesn't mean you are going to get a truly impact arm. Just ask the Yankees. New York was tied for second behind Houston with eight pitchers from the three classes getting a big league shot, including five who debuted in 2016 alone. They, however, have zero pitchers who have thus far accumulated even 1 fWAR. Their list is headed thus far by Jhony Brito, currently on the Padres' 60-day IL. After him? Well you've got current Nashville teammates Deivi Garcia and Elvis Peguero. Their rival Red Sox, who tied with the Yankees with eight big leaguers, are in almost as bad of shape. Their only one with at least 1 fWAR coming into the season, Gregory Santos, has managed to slide below that mark with seven poor innings before getting optioned this year. Coming Up In part two we'll look at a number of potential strategies, including the effects of bonus money and signing age. View full article

Which TV shows do you suggest watching to pick up the slang? Will having seen “Derry Girls” be sufficient?

Want a fun stat? Pena is the only teenage prospect in A ball with a K rate of less than 10% and an ISO of at least .1. If you increase that to 15%, only one other name is added to the list. Who? Well @Joseph Zarr dedicated a post to him earlier today.

I am with you. It is nice to see some extra base hits early as well given that even during his ACL struggles he rarely struck out, so quantity of contact has never been an issue.

I don’t remember seeing his name on the spring training lineups and was concerned he suffered another serious injury. Really glad that wasn’t the case. The more talented young pitching in the system the better.

Is the wind blowing out in Charlotte? 10 homers between the teams?

Problem is, when Adamczewski moves up will probably coincide with when Areinamo gets promoted. It will be someone new to watch but probably won’t help the offensive struggles on its own.

I guess at least it is 7 and not 60.

On the plus side, the extra playing time seems to have gotten Alastre going a bit.

Has Nadal played since he got banged up?

Whereas there was a point during tonight's game where 11 of the 13 hitters on the Mudcats active roster had an OPS above .700

Bjorn Johnson’s success so far after his struggles last year has to be right up there with Manuel Rodriguez, strikeout king, and the control artist version of Yerlin Rodriguez for the best positive surprises on the pitching side.

I was expecting Corniel to follow Birchard tonight. Maybe they decided to take pity on the link reporters by not have Cornielle and Corniel pitch on the same schedule all season.

I know it’s early, and some will likely fall short of the mark, but since 2010, only two Brewers teen prospects totaled an .800 OPS in low-A in at least 200 plate appearances. There are five on pace this year.

I wonder how many more outings before they are convinced Yerlin Rodriguez has found some measure of consistency. If he has, there is no point in having him at high-A anymore. The stuff is too good.

It was great to see Welch bounce back from his shaky first start. While I wouldn't say he was necessarily dominant, he was in control the entire time, even in the one inning he ran into trouble, the single was a bunt and one of the doubles was one Nicasia likely would have caught had he not broken the wrong way (I don't know if it was the wind or something with the stadium, but he seemed to have a bit of trouble getting reads on balls in both games). Sanchez got through his inning unscathed, but it felt like a better version of a rough Yerlin game. There were a few awkward swings and misses, but he also threw a chunk of non-competitive pitches. That he managed to avoid walking someone was surprising. Still, the awkward swings he induced were nice to see. Aquino probably pitched better than the number of base runners he surrendered, but not as well as the shutout he posted on the scoreboard. On the hitting side, Baez probably had the most solid contact in the two games I saw. Nicasia had one die into the wind in right field, that had he not gotten under it could have been another homer. Hopefully Tayden Hall can turn some of these doubles into homers as the weather warms in the Midwest League.

Tough way to lose after Aquino’s high-wire act the previous three innings.

The 9th ended on the first batter’s interference call I have ever seen live. The crowd was not pleased.

Into the 7th in QC and had to double check that no one on either team had walked yet. They hadn’t.

Always love the view with the bridge and the river in the background.

Maybe it was just because I was looking for it, but Areinamo did seem more discerning in his pitch selection than when I saw him last year. Glad to hear Thursday was an anomaly for Burke, because he looked a bit lost against Mozzicato.