CheeseheadInQC

BrewersPD traditionally posts them. Hopefully they continue that this year.

Yah, we sometimes will take short trips to the Galena/Dubuque area, and it is gorgeous.

Are you sure you are right about the seasons you are citing? The Rule 5 draft in the 2023-2024 offseason had 10 total players selected and five of the eight pitchers stuck (and two of the ones who didn’t had injury problems).

I don’t get the seeming vendetta here. He is clearly working through some stuff, but it’s spring training, the perfect time for that. He wasn’t ready last year, But you know what? Most of his peers aren’t either. He is one of only two JuCo 2021 draftees to start in the big leagues so far and the other one struggled, too. He was the third youngest pitcher to throw at least 50 innings at AAA. Player development doesn’t always move in a straight line, especially with pitchers. He might be the next Zack Brown, topping out at AAA, but it is too early to make that call. Also, if you want Yoho on the roster, fine, but there is no reason to disparage Rodriguez in that argument. You know who Yoho would probably push off the 26-man roster? Connor Thomas. Returning him opens up the requisite 40-man spot without any other moves.

Eh, he might or might not make it, but unless he suffers a similar injury I doubt his lack of innings in college will have any bearing on it at this point. Kevin Kelly isn’t a bad experience comp from recent Rule 5 picks. Basically two minor league seasons, one at the lower levels, one at the upper levels. Because of his move to the rotation, Smith actually had more pro innings. That pick has worked out well for the Rays.

I mean, Varland had a couple of seasons of high 5, low 6 ERAs in AA, while Smith, in his first shot starting as a pro, was one of the best pitchers in the Southern League.

Starters: William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins, Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, Oliver Dunn, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich Bench: Eric Haase, Caleb Durbin, Mark Canha, Vinny Capra Starters: Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana Bullpen: Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson, Nick Mears, Tyler Alexander, Abner Uribe, Connor Thomas Toughest calls: Durbin vs. Monasterio: I think Capra might make it simply because he is out of options and, if Turang or Ortiz get hurt they would rather have him as the No. 2 shortstop than Monasterio, especially given the three minor league shortstops with upper level experience are all coming off pretty down years. That leaves Durbin vs. Monasterio. They seem to like Durbin enough that I see him getting the nod. I could also, however, understand sending him to AAA to get more third base experience. Uribe vs. Peguero: I kind of think they have Uribe serve the suspension early. After that, however, this remains a coin flip. Thomas vs. Elvin Rodriguez: I think they will want someone stretched out a bit more for the last spot in the bullpen. Thomas has the edge because of the Rule 5 limits. If they prefer Rodriguez and don't see Thomas surviving through early May with the hopeful return of Woodruff and Ashby, however, they could rip the band-aid off immediately.

Chris Carter?

Game notes says Kay Lan Nicasia is 88

There are several Brewers prospects whose season-opening roster assignment is not only unclear right now, but extremely interesting—because they could be telling about where the player stands in the eyes of the organization and what their future holds. Let's round them up. Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Be it Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara (High A or Double A?), Josh Adamczewski and Eric Bitonti (Low A or High-A?) or the question of whether Luis Pena will skip the Arizona Complex League, the Brewers have some interesting minor-league roster decisions to make. With major-league spring training games well underway and the minor-league games soon to follow, we are ticking down the days until the release of minor-league rosters. That day not only gives us a glimpse at what each of the teams will look like this season (well, at least to start; it is the minor leagues, after all), but also an idea of some of the club’s thinking. How aggressively are they pushing top prospects? How will playing time be distributed? The way the rosters are set can hint at the answers to these questions. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting decisions the Brewers have to make this year on the hitting side, with prospects who could at least have a case to start at two different levels. The guys on the fringes of the MLB roster have been and will continue to be written about extensively while that deadline looms, so instead, let's focus on each of the five Stateside minor-league clubs and the guys whose roster placement seems to be a coin flip between two of them. AAA-AA: No One I'm not sure I have ever seen a clearer divide between Triple A and Double A, on the hitting side. Maybe the Brewers surprise us, but as of right now, I just don’t see it. There is no bubble here. Maybe you could have made a case that the domino effect from the Blake Perkins injury would lead to Bladimir Restituyo ending up at Nashville, but I think the Mark Canha and Manuel Margot signings put an end to that. Wait, I did kind of hint that I would be choosing at least someone for each of these divides, didn’t I? Well … one second. *Frantically consults notes* AAA-AA: Rodriguez vs. Miller … Possibly … Maybe One potential surprise could be at catcher. I don't know if Jorge Alfaro has an opt-out clause, but if he does (and if he decides to exercise it), the Brewers would be short a catcher in Nashville. Similarly, if Jeferson Quero isn’t ready to catch right away, someone will need to fill in. The easy choice roster-wise might be Nick Kahle. It wouldn't shock me, though, if the need was for more than a week or two, if the Brewers elevate either Darrien Miller or Ramon Rodriguez, the two halves of the presumed Double-A catching duo. Miller would seemingly have the edge, having started in Biloxi last season while Rodriguez was sharing time at Wisconsin. I'd kind of lean the other way, however. Unlike Miller, Rodriguez has Triple-A experience, having spent portions of 2022 and 2023 there. It also sounds as if he is seen as the superior defender. Once again, the most likely scenario has the two of them sharing time at Biloxi this season, but there is at least a chance the Brewers end up facing this question. And if they do end up needing to elevate one of them to Nashville, I wouldn’t be shocked if David Garcia and not Matt Wood ends up getting the other Double-A catching spot, but that is an entirely different topic. AA-A+: How Aggressive Do They Get with Pratt & Lara? While there might be one or two other decisions to be made—do they start Eduardo Garcia in Biloxi? With his impending free agency they kind of have to, right?—the headliners here are two of the Brewers' top 20 prospects, Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara. From a roster construction standpoint, the easiest fit is Pratt to Wisconsin and Lara to Biloxi. Outside of the shortstop spot in Nashville, Wisconsin is the only place in the system that doesn't have plus infield depth, at least it doesn’t if Pratt starts in Biloxi. Similarly, Wisconsin might be the team that is the deepest in the outfield, and putting Lara in Double A would allow Dylan O'Rae to at least occasionally fill in for Jadher Areinamo at second and delay a full-time move to the outfield grass. The thing is, that doesn't matter for top-20 guys like Lara, and certainly not top-5 guys like Pratt. You slot them in where it is best for them, and figure out the roster construction issues it brings later. The question of what is right for them isn’t exactly clear-cut either. Pratt saw his power soar after a late-season promotion to Wisconsin last season, but his contact rate and walk rate went in the opposite direction—making him, on the whole, less productive than he was with Carolina. He was not, however, awful (.700 OPS, 94 wRC+). Barring a complete loss of form, it seems likely that Pratt sees Biloxi this season. The question is, does he start there? Unlike Pratt, Lara spent the whole of the 2024 season at High A. When you combine his 95 wRC+ with his stellar defense and speed, he was probably an above-average player by league standards. The question is, is that enough to warrant a promotion, when he is still young enough where starting off again in Wisconsin wouldn't exactly be the setback it is for some prospects? His AFL stint, where he neither starred nor seemed overwhelmed, did nothing to clarify the answer, either. Both have had strong performances in big-league games this spring, but 10 at-bats apiece isn't a ton to go on. Honestly, I'd be very tempted to have both start in High A and hope they quickly force their way up, like Mike Boeve did. As aggressive as the Brewers have been with some top prospects, though, it is probably more likely that both are promoted than both stick in Wisconsin. In the end, I'll guess they split them, with Pratt going to Biloxi and Lara staying in Wisconsin, despite it making more sense roster-wise for them to swap places. If Pratt does make the jump to Double A to begin his second full post-draft season, he might have company among other 2023 prep picks league-wide. Between the 2010 and 2022 drafts, I believe 9 or 10 prep picks accomplished that feat. There could be seven in the 2023 class alone, with Walker Jenkins, Max Clark and Bryce Eldridge looking like locks and Kevin McGonigle, Colt Emerson, George Lombard Jr. and Pratt all having at least a shot to begin the year in Double A. A+/A: More 2023 Picks & What to Do About Dinges If Pratt does go to Biloxi to start the season, it opens up a bit of a hole on the Wisconsin roster. They have first base covered with Blake Burke and Tayden Hall both likely starting there, and Juan Baez will fill one of the infield spots. After that, though …. I imagine, despite coming off a season that might otherwise have him repeating Low A, that Daniel Guilarte gets moved up. Jheremy Vargas will also likely see a lot more infield time than last season. They still need at least one more infielder, though. They could keep Eduardo Garcia in High A, despite the ticking clock, or they could move up another 2023 prep pick. The question is, which one? Eric Bitonti is the higher-ranked prospect and spent more time in Carolina last season, smacking eight home runs in 28 low-A games. Despite that, however, I might lean toward Josh Adamczewski. I say this for a couple of reasons. First, while the power definitely plays, it would be nice to see Bitonti improve the strikeout rate a bit in a second go-around in Carolina. Despite the whiffs spiking a bit after getting promoted to Low A last season, that is still less of a concern for Adamczewski. Second, while once again this is a secondary consideration with good prospects, Adamczewski fits the High-A roster better, given the scarcity of middle infielders, even if he is limited to second base. Adamczewski and Bitonti aren't the only players on this bubble, though. You also have the case of Marco Dinges. Between his strong offensive output at Florida State and the success he had during his late-season cameo in Carolina, he would seem like an easy one to slot in at Wisconsin. If the Brewers have any hopes for him sticking at catcher, however, I hope they don't. For someone like Dinges, who doesn't have the ideal amount of experience as a catcher, I'd rather that he played at a level where they are relatively certain he can hit, given the amount of focus that the defense will be getting. If the hitting is strong and the defense is coming along well, you could always give him a midseason promotion. For now, though, I’d almost feel more confident in him if the Brewers start him at the lower level. A/Complex: Who Will Skip the ACL & the Battle for the Bench There aren’t a ton of sure bets for Low-A ball. Braylon Payne, Filippo Di Turi and Reese Walling seem likely to repeat. Edgardo Ordonez and Tyler Rodriguez were good enough in the Complex League that they seem likely to get promoted, and of course, I’m counting Jesus Made as basically a sure thing. Depending upon the decisions made in the group above (along with some of the A+/A fringe outfielders), there could be a decent number of spots available in Carolina. Of the remaining players, the highest profile is probably Luis Pena. While Pena might not have been the best prospect on his DSL team because, well, Jesus Made, he still compares favorably at that stage to some of the other recent prospects to skip the ACL. The Carolina infield is congested, especially if Adamczewski and Bitonti both start there, but I still think that Pena starts the season in Carolina. That leaves a few players battling for the last couple of Carolina's roster spots. Among the ACL group from last year, the top remaining performer was Johan Barrios. The big-money 2022 IFA signing cut his strikeout rate more than 10 percentage points, down to a more manageable 23.7%. He still hasn't shown the power that he was touted to have when he signed, however. His batted-ball data looks a bit like 2023 Jadher Areinamo, which was good for Areinamo but not quite as ideal for a guy mostly playing first base who is still running K rates north of 20%. Luiyin Alastre had a weird 2024 ACL season. He finished 62nd out of 77 qualifying ACL hitters in wRC+ but finished first in strikeout rate. His BABIP fell and he didn't see the accompanying surge in power that the ACL hitting environment brought for many. However, given that most of the alternatives boasted similar offensive output but combined with K rates at 25% and above rather than 11%, Alastre seems like a decent bet to break camp with Carolina, depending on some of the other roster decisions. That's not to discount Gery Holguin, who saw a lot of ACL playing time and is entering his fourth year in the system, but the two other most interesting names to watch didn't play a game in the ACL last year for very different reasons. The first was among the best surprises of the 2024 DSL season for Milwaukee. While Pena and Made had been part of the preseason big three, Jose Anderson was lesser known. His power, however, soon put him on the map. His DSL performance left him likely somewhere in the 25-35 range among Brewers prospects, and given the depth of Milwaukee's system, that is a big accomplishment for someone who hasn't played stateside yet. His stats compare favorably to Yophery Rodriguez, the only one of the Brewers prospects who have skipped the ACL recently who had a K-rate above 15%. However, unless it is simply because Jesus Made had sucked all the oxygen out of the room when it comes to coverage of the Brewers' 2024 IFA signees, Anderson doesn't seem to have quite the building chorus of praise that made Rodriguez skipping the ACL last season fairly unsurprising. The other possibility is also entering his fourth season in the Brewers system after spending two years in the DSL and missing all of 2024 injured. Demetrio Nadal received a lot of attention entering last season after posting an OPS in 2023 that rivaled Made and Pena's 2024 marks. Was it the case of him announcing himself as a prospect to watch or another case of a DSL repeater mirage? We never got to find out last year. Personally, if there are three available spots, I’d be betting on Barrios, Alastre and Nadal. Three guys skipping the ACL (possibly four if Wande Torres breaks camp with Carolina) might be pushing it, although a fast start would likely have Anderson in A-ball by June. What Do You Think? I've had my say, but what do you think? Should they push Cooper Pratt to AA? Should both Pena and Anderson join Made in Carolina? Is there some other placement you are watching closely on the hitting side? Let me know. View full article

12 strikeouts, 0 walks, 0 HBP by Milwaukee pitching. That’ll play.

I wonder if the pitching was kind of set by whose day it was to throw. You conspicuously have possibly one starter from each of the four levels.

It really feels like there are 26 that would make most lists with the questions on the other four. Here they are the two 2025 IFA guys, Anderson and Collins, but there are a lot of guys who could slot in there.

There are at least elements to Dunn’s profile that point to late bloomer potential. Namely that 2023 was the first time he topped 75 games played. Of course that also makes the case he is injury prone.

A couple of notes: I'm well aware of the importance of the Day 3 NFL Draft picks, and I follow it closely because I am me, I'm just saying that the ability to move the money around adds a layer of intrigue that the final day of the NFL draft doesn't have, like you know you traded down a few picks in the second round but you don't know until the next day whether the team netted a fourth rounder or two fifth rounders (and the team gets to decide). The Bill Belichick line referenced how Belichick notoriously had a much smaller board of players he considered worth drafting than everyone else so at some point, inevitably, the Patriots would either begin trading their picks for ones in the following draft or doing wacky things like taking a long snapper in the fifth round. Back onto baseball, I guess I don't understand what you mean by a player being sniped by a team with better money management techniques. I mean a player can choose to go to (or go back to) college, but another team can't simply step in and snag that player without the draft process playing out again (and in the case of many prep players, that won't happen until three years later). And really, cases like Levonas this year with the Brewers are exceedingly rare these days. More than 99% of the picks in the first 10 rounds usually sign. After round 10 it is more of a coin flip, but it usually isn't a surprise to teams. They are picking guys in case the player changes his mind before the deadline. If you are talking about teams not being able to pick the guy at the top of the board because of bonus pool restraints, well, while it is less structured the different strategies are not really different than trading up or trading back in the NFL draft. Each of those choices comes with pros and cons, and a team shouldn't expect to have the best of both worlds. And teams don't have to play the money moving games. Some teams draft almost exclusively college players and hew closely to slot value. It all depends on the strategy employed. Yes, there are some elements of the MLB draft that are overly complex (like how it is better for your bonus pool to sign a player for $10K in the sixth round and one for $75K in the 11th round than vice versa). The most important differentiators you mentioned, however, have absolutely nothing to do with the draft structure and everything to do with the differences in player development between the sports. A simpler approach like the NFL's hard slotting won't change that while also limiting front offices' creativity.

I disagree for a few reasons: 1. You are never going to be able to become the NFL Draft because one of the things that makes the NFL Draft interesting is imagining how the picks fit into your team's depth chart this season. No other sport has that to the extent that the NFL does. Unless your team is drafting an MLB-ready college player in the top 5 or you are an Angels fan, you are probably going to have to wait a year and a half minimum before seeing them in your team's uniform for anything other than a spring training game. 2. The chaos is usually after the first round (always going to be the most marketable one). In 2024, which was always going to be a weird draft because it was seen as pretty lacking in talent overall, four players from outside the top 35 on MLB.com's predraft list were chosen with a true first round pick. In 2023, there was only one, Brice Matthews, the 28th and final true first round pick. The NFL draft isn't even as predictable as that one was. 3. The players pushed up the board are usually the college players, who, if they can ever figure out a way to make college baseball more marketable, would be the names people would recognize anyway once you get past the top-tier prep phenoms. 4. The baseball method actually adds suspense to the later rounds. If a player slips multiple rounds in the NFL draft it is usually for something performance related that hasn't leaked yet (i.e. injury, college coach saying he needed to assign a coach to make sure the guy showed up to games let alone practice). With MLB, you can see a high school player falling and think is he going to college or is some team stringing him? Is it us? Do we have enough money left? I say this as someone who used to do 7-round NFL mock drafts, the later rounds of the MLB draft are more fascinating for me than the NFL one, especially now that you can't play the "When will Bill Belichick's board run out of players and he just starts drafting long snappers?" game.

Black’s fall had more to do with the fact that early on there was optimism that he was athletic enough to make it work at second or third. Once it became apparent that, despite his athleticism, it just might not work at those spots, he started to fall.

I think the big reason for Martinez not being a prospect darling is that it took a long time for him to make consistent contact with his swing against lower level pitchers so there is skepticism he will against big league pitchers. If he can, though, everything else will play.

The Rockies are in a really weird place with McMahon. They didn't trade him when his value was high and they weren't in position to contend. Now they are a bit underwater with the contract and I'm guessing they would like to trade him, but they can't really ship him out for just cost savings when they made him the face of the franchise, and he is still one of the better players on a bad team. It feels like a situation where they probably pay down enough of the salary to get a decent prospect so they can sell the trade while still shaving payroll a bit. Then again, it is the Rockies, so they will probably just hang onto him or give him another extension.

You could go more Yo Ho Ho than Yo Yo, but the best option there, The Flying Dutchman (being a ghost ship) was clearly already taken.

The live scoring isn’t in regular season form yet. It also had Eric Bitonti simultaneously striking out and stealing second.

I can’t remember if I did, but the first year I broke my sleepers into tiers I considered calling Tier 3 the Rip Van Winkle tier.

Vinny Capra trying to silence the “Why is Vinny Capra on the roster?” questions. What. A. Day.

Just to add context with stats, which is my thing, since 2021, 39 players in their 17- or 18-year-old season have put up a 100+ wRC+ in at least 100 A ball plate appearances. Only three teams had more than two, and only the Mariners (6) had more than the Brewers' 5. Take out the Padres' 3 and the other 27 teams combined for 25.