CheeseheadInQC

To some degree I have always associated hit tool with avoiding strikeouts, and Valerio has traditionally had a low K rate, even during his slump, especially given his age and level.

The question of how much bad luck is baked into Valerio's stat line is a legitimate one. He has the third worst BABIP among Brewers full season minor leaguers behind just Holt and Pinero. Even during his slump his strikeout rate didn't move much. If it was mostly bad luck, he should be in for a bounce back season next year. While it definitely feels like the .241 BABIP is unsustainably low for a guy like Valerio who does have some pop, I am a bit concerned in the spike in his fly ball rates since he hit high-A last season. That also coincides with him going from a .300 hitter to a .230 hitter. If that is responsible, he needs to do something to fix it during the offseason. Having a great hit tool doesn't mean much of you're still going to top out at .250 because the type of contact you make isn't likely to result in an abundance of hits.

I know someone who has an AP vote. There is no organized SEC conspiracy. Also, the CFP poll has more influence on the AP poll than the other way around. The CFP does its own thing, then the AP poll will typically have some teams “adjusted” the next week where the CFP disagreed with them. There are pluses and minuses to having working journalists do the voting. On the plus side, they are trained to set fandom aside, and most that I have met take this seriously (and are very critical of those who don’t). On the minus side, many have to cover a game and then churn 3-4 stories on the team they cover, limiting the number of actual games they can watch on Saturdays, so records and scores often seem to weigh heavier for a lot of it than the eye test simply because of time constraints.

Early season rankings are heavily influenced by each writer's expectations. Writers who were lower on Wisconsin to start the season likely aren't going to change their tune after beating Illinois State, but writers who were lower on Arkansas, for whom the Cinci game was an upset, probably moved them up.

Author's note: Because of ease of sorting for the various categories, I used Baseball Reference for team ages and Fangraphs for age season the individual players were in. Also, 2006 is used as a cutoff date for some of the items because that is how far back Fangraphs’ database goes. It is no secret that this year’s Carolina Mudcats squad has been young, filled with teens who came through the DSL pipeline — the kind of roster where, especially on offense, guys who can legally drink are the exception, not the rule. But did you know it might be historically young? The average Carolina batter is 19.8 years old, the youngest across all of low-A. The average Carolina pitcher is 21.0 years old, tied for the second youngest across low-A this year. When you combine those you have the youngest low-A team across all of baseball since at least 2010. The question is, is this the result of changes from within the organization or simply part of a trend in the aftermath of the contraction of a level of rookie ball and pushing back the date of the draft. The answer: Both The Brewers side Since 2006, a total of 10 guys in their 18-year-old seasons have played in low-A for the Brewers. Only two of those — Orlando Arcia and Mario Feliciano — came before 2021, and half have been this year alone. The biggest change, of course, has come from the Brewers’ Latin American signings, both in the quality of their play and the Brewers’ willingness to push them up the ladder. Between 2006 and 2019, I believe only five of the Brewers’ Latin American signings reached A-ball before their age-20 season, and only in the cases of Arcia and Pablo Abreu did it really feel deserved. The Brewers kind of had to move Gilbert Lara up eventually if only because of how much they paid him upon signing, and Milwaukee thought so much of Edgar Trejo and Luis Ramirez that both were released before the following season and never played in affiliate ball again. This year alone you have had Jackson Chourio, Jeferson Quero, Hendry Mendez, Luis Castillo, Jadher Areinamo, Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez, Jheremy Vargas, Jesus Garcia, Yujanyer Herrera, Arielbi Gonzalez, Jeison Pena and Alexander Vallecillo. While the elimination of the one level of rookie ball might have sped their arrival up a bit, there is far more going on here than that. The summer 2019 and winter 2021 signing classes have been, simply put, the deepest in at least recent team history, pushing the average age down even as the number of high school players the team has drafted has declined. The league That’s not to say, of course, that they aren’t following a league-wide trend, at least on the hitting side. Between 2015 and 2019, the average age of a low-A hitter fluctuated between 21.4 and 21.6 years old. In 2022 it is 21.0. Similarly seven low-A teams have their hitters averaging 20.5 years old or younger in 2022, the same number as in the five years from 2015 and 2019 combined. Also, three of those came from one franchise: the 2017-19 Fort Wayne Tin Caps, a Padres affiliate during the time they were building their vaunted minor league system that has almost all been traded away. (Side note: the 2018 Tin Caps, which included current Brewers prospect Esteury Ruiz, is the only one since at least 2010 in which the hitters were younger than the Mudcats, checking in at 19.7 years old.) While there has been little if any perceptible leaguewide change in the ages as far as pitching goes, the hitting changes have been enough where the Down East Wood Ducks (Rangers) and Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks) rank just behind the Mudcats, with all three likely among the four youngest low-A teams since 2010. The future The question then becomes, is this sustainable for Milwaukee? In the short term, the answer appears to be yes. The longer term future, however, is hazier. To start with, not only do the Brewers have the youngest low-A team, but their their two ACL teams are part of what is basically a three-way tie with the Pirates’ FCL squad for the youngest complex league team. The following players who will be below the drinking age seem likely to spend some time with the Mudcats next season, not even considering the current DSL guys who could earn late-season promotions: 19: Castillo, Areinamo, Herrera, Luke Adams, Dylan O’Rae, Daniel Guilarte, Gregory Barrios, Miguel Briceno 20: Perez, Avina, Vargas, Vallecillo, Gonzalez, Garcia, Tayden Hall, Satchell Norman, Quinton Low, Patricio Aquino, Brailin Rodriguez, Jose Caballero Beyond that, it is going to depend on their continued ability to sign and develop players from Latin America. It is going to be difficult to top those two classes, and the most recent one seems, at first glance, to be a little on the weaker side compared to 2021 and 2019. Hopefully they can at least come close, however, because the more of those guys who are good enough to push their way up the pipeline early, the healthier it is for the system as a whole.

There is also a high likelihood that both Carlos Rodriguezes will be in Biloxi next year, so that won’t be confusing at all ?.

There is also a high likelihood that both Carlos Rodriguezes will be in Biloxi next year, so that won’t be confusing at all ?.

I know there have been other strong seasons, but he has to be the Brewers’ minor league pitcher of the year, right?

The weird thing is that is a very recent phenomenon. I think Preston Gainey was brought back possibly two straight years on minor league deals while he rehabbed. I wonder if other teams are doing this as well. The cynic in me wouldn’t put it past Manfred’s office to create a concession they could make if the MILB players end up unionizing.

I know how they look in camp will factor in, but I wonder how many of Cornielle, Cruz and Rodriguez end up in Biloxi to start 2023.

I had him fourth. Might fall to fifth with Wiemer starting to hit again, but honestly I think he is right up there with all those guys. Chourio seems to be a clear 1. After that, there is a lot of what do you value more in the rest of the top 10.

He kind of gets lost amid the Chourio, Nashville five (now three) and Gasser hype, but just a reminder Jeferson Quero is the youngest catcher in high-A.

Maybe a little because I am guessing you had a few teams not protect borderline guys they might have in the past, gambling that it wouldn’t happen (not completely convinced Brewers didn’t use this strategy). I still think the bigger effect, though, is the COVID year delayed development for the guys eligible this year. That will lead to more guys eligible and perhaps more close calls. A couple of years ago the Brewers pretty much protected every healthy prospect in the triple-A phase. No way that can happen this year.

Maybe a little because I am guessing you had a few teams not protect borderline guys they might have in the past, gambling that it wouldn’t happen (not completely convinced Brewers didn’t use this strategy). I still think the bigger effect, though, is the COVID year delayed development for the guys eligible this year. That will lead to more guys eligible and perhaps more close calls. A couple of years ago the Brewers pretty much protected every healthy prospect in the triple-A phase. No way that can happen this year.

If they re-sign him to a minor league deal before the Rule 5 draft (or at least the date when players have to be protected by) he would still be eligible to be picked. It doesn’t happen often, though, because usually the other team would have bettered the minor league offer by giving him a 40 man slot while he was a free agent.

It is tough to give much perspective to rankings because I don’t have more than a cursory knowledge about any of the systems other than the Brewers and to a lesser extent the Royals with the River Bandits being in town. I do think, though, this is the best the Brewers system has been in recent years. Looking ahead to next season, there are going to be very few spots in the full season starting lineups that aren’t filled by at least moderately intriguing prospects. Partly this is because of probably the two deepest international signing classes in recent team history. I don’t know if that level of success is sustainable, and the most recent DSL class, while it has its bright spots, doesn’t look to be quite at the same level. They have to keep having some success there, though. Also, since they invest more in position players, they need to keep having pitching breakthroughs with mid-to-later round picks and lower dollar signings. More years where you have low-A trios like Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle break out will make the current trajectory much more sustainable.

Maybe it is legit, but this feels like either someone trying to go viral or a guy’s buddies playing a practical joke on him.

The best I can say is that at least it made more sense than the Norris trade. Here they made an upside play, albeit a low percentage one, for a lower upside prospect from a position of organizational strength. There they picked up what felt like a marginal improvement at best for an upside prospect at a position where they lacked organizational depth. Didn’t like either at the time but at least I can understand the thought process here.

Covered above, but basically just the breakdown of the relationship with the front office. Nothing nefarious, just that it probably put a question in the mind of GMs about whether he was going to be collaborative.

Basically that the relationship with the front office got bad enough they fired a manager who had success. If you are a guy in the same position with a different team, it might give you pause. I didn’t mean to imply dirt, just that how things ended with one GM might weigh into the decision making of another.

Because he does things so differently from most relievers, I think there is a tendency to be waiting for the league to figure him out, and any slump sparks fear it finally happened. I know I tend to fall into this category. He has been good enough long enough, though, to earn a bit more of a benefit of the doubt.

He wouldn’t bring the baggage of why Schildt got fired, though.

It really feels, with a couple of exceptions, they are saying, well, meet your teammates for next year.

He would be out of a job for about half an hour, It would only be that long because multiple offers would come in during that span.

It could also be they have become accustomed to plus center field defense and I think Mitchell is supposed to be the best defender in center. Honestly, with Wiemer’s hot streak, all of them have been performing well enough with the bat to be the one getting the call. Maybe rather than all the service time related thoughts it actually just came down to defense.