CheeseheadInQC

Frelick’s lack of power does limit his ultimate upside, but it is not like he is Juan Pierre. Unless I am mistaken his minor league extra base hit totals would have ranked fourth on the Brewers last season, and he did hit double-digit homers. I am not one of Frelick’s biggest defenders on the site (I think I was one of the few who didn’t have him in the top 2 in the last prospect poll), but if he can truly be a .300 hitter at the big league level, the power numbers he posted in the minors last year might never make him an MVP candidate, but they would be more than adequate. A .150 ISO looks a lot better stacked atop a .300 average than a .230 one.

I guess I don’t really understand this take. All trades involve some measure of hope. The Brewers are hoping that last year was an aberration and Winker reverts to his Cincinnati offensive production and that they are correct that low BABIP lefties are an undervalued asset with the shift going away. The Mariners hope Wong’s defensive advanced stats are to some degree noise and not the sign of the start of a steep decline in his former best tool. I am neither excited nor disappointed in this deal. It seems fairly even. We will see.

I am guessing that is a paper move that protects him from the minor league rule 5 draft. It is bizarre how some of those get reported and some don’t.

If you can find someone who can provide consistent production in that role, though, it has value. Otherwise you are always left hoping that this year’s pickup will pan out.

I will say 20 I guess for Junk. I have him in a group with Small and Robinson between 19 and 21.

I have often wondered if that is because of where teams think they can stash players or if it a function of who gets protected. Are there more relief pitchers (or starters a different team thinks has stuff that will play up in the bullpen) left unprotected than hitters who could at least have some level of competency in the big leagues?

Devanney is an interesting case. If you look at the higher prospect profile shortstops (or at least nominally shortstops) left available for the Rule 5, they either 1. haven't hit AA yet 2. are more contact/defense profiles or 3. have serious strikeout issues. Of all shortstops in the upper levels who have 0 major league experience and posted a strikeout rate less than 25% and an ISO of at least .2, Devanney is the only one unprotected. If you drop the ISO down to .15, you still only have five others, and they are also older prospects (Devanney is only a couple of months from being the youngest). A couple, including Brewers COVID purge casualty CJ Hinojosa, have been through minor league free agency a time or two. If you are looking for a utility infielder with pop and without severe contact issues in the Rule 5 draft, Devanney pretty much has to be your guy. That being said, the thing that might keep him from being selected is that he isn't a natural fit to be picked by many teams. Most of the rebuilding teams could target younger, higher upside players and your large market contenders are going to be filling that spot with someone safer than a player who had only a late season cameo in AAA. You are probably looking at either a small market at least fringe contender with an available utility infield spot or a rebuilding club willing to draft multiple players. The fact that the Brewers might be one of his best fits and didn't protect him is the one thing that makes me think he might go undrafted.

I often thought one of the best ways to lessen the flopping is to get officials to be willing to call more offensive fouls when the defensive player doesn’t end up sprawled out on the floor. Unless it has changed since they put the flopping rule in, it always seemed as if when the defense player made an effort to take a few steps back and steady themselves after contact it automatically became either a block or no call.

I could be wrong, but unless they missed their first year on the IL, I think Castaneda, Hall and everyone Martinez and below are free agents after 2024.

I had Seminaris in Lazar’s spot until I decided to go with a gut instinct that they might take a look at how Castaneda’s stuff played in a relief role. Then it came down to Lazar vs. Bennett and similarly I could see them taking a look at whether Bennett’s occasional stretches of dominance become more frequent in the pen. I do think, given how close he is to minor league free agency, if you have any hopes for Lazar he has to start in AA, be it the rotation or bullpen. Puello’s spot might be a little soft, and I considered having another of last year’s picks take that spot with Puello getting a look at how he does in the bullpen, but ultimately I stuck with him.

I said I'd do pitching predictions, so here are some guesses on the rotations. A few notes: 1. I included six for each of the top three levels partially because the schedule sets up for it and partially because the sad truth is, pitching injuries are fairly common, especially at the lower levels. I have 10 for low-A because of tandems. 2. If I didn't list a player, including one at least mildly prominent example at AAA, I likely am guessing they move to the bullpen. Or I just had a memory lapse. Based on the rosters right now, in no particular order: AAA: Gasser, Small, Junk, Seminaris, Alexander, Boushley AA: Cruz, C. Rodriguez, Jarvis, Knarr, Shook, Lazar High-A: Henderson, Cornielle, Wagoner, Smith, Jimenez, Puello Low-A: Misiorowski, Rudy, Woessner, Peterson, Aquino, Vallecillo, Segura, Herrera, B. Rodriguez, Gonzalez

Honestly this feels like the type of move that, if it hadn’t come right after the Renfroe trade, would have spurred an update on 40-man openings and a couple posts being surprised they did this with an outfielder rather than a similar late bloomer type infielder. I’d be more positive about the move if his AAA/AA games split was 70/30 for AAA instead of the other way around. But basically I look at this similar to how I would if Tristen Lutz posted an .825 OPS in AAA this year. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with adding him to the 40-man, but I can understand the late-bloomer hopes involved in doing so.

I have it 51/49 so I am hardly convinced myself. Basically I think one of Miller/Quero is at Wisconsin, the other is in Biloxi.

I need to look at a few things before making the pitcher predictions, but other than last year's draft picks, I've got just about every one of the hitters you mentioned in AA. Black is obvious. I doubt Zamora gets pushed after last season. Unlike Uribe, who I do think could start in AAA, I don't think Warren's strong fall league was enough to push him up a level. Rodriguez was tearing up High-A when he got hurt and is already entering his sixth year in the system, so AA makes sense. That brings us to the big question hitting wise in the system in my opinion: Jeferson Quero. It is basically a coin flip, but if I had to pick, I think they push him. He hit well at Wisconsin and while his Fall League batting stats weren't overwhelming, he wasn't overwhelmed either. And while you might normally err on the side of caution with catching prospects that young to make sure they are ready defensively, that's not as big of a concern with Quero. I also think Brown and Moore both start in high-A. I know Zamora started at Carolina a couple years ago, but he was also coming off of an injury and didn't have the low-A experience Moore has. Also, there is no shortage of infield options at Carolina even without them. Other than Quero, my biggest hitter questions: 1. I have a feeling one of the low-A outfield from the end of last year (Mendez, Perez, Castillo, Avila and Fernandez) starts the year in Wisconsin, but I don't know which one. 2. Do they make a decision as to whether Low is a hitter or a pitcher or do they keep the two-way thing going another year?

But only three true ones … (Slowly retreats back to the minor league forum.)

But only three true ones … (Slowly retreats back to the minor league forum.)

While it shouldn’t really matter, I think bowl eligibility probably made giving Leonard the job early an easier sell PR wise.

Really sad to see him go, The Brewers can’t afford to give a long reliever $3 million+, but from the stories you hear, there was perhaps no one whose value to the team outpaced his value on the field more than Suter.

Jean Munoz, Aneury Lora and David Morillo?

OK, no shocking omissions. Singleton is a surprise, though.

OK, no shocking omissions. Singleton is a surprise, though.

Robinson is the big surprise. He was behind the other two, but I still would have put him at 90% to get protected. Devanney is the only position player I could see getting taken because he has position versatility and pop, even if he is a bit on the older side for a prospect.

Robinson is the big surprise. He was behind the other two, but I still would have put him at 90% to get protected. Devanney is the only position player I could see getting taken because he has position versatility and pop, even if he is a bit on the older side for a prospect.

It wasn't a Brewer. There were four main candidates that year, Listach, Eldred, Lofton and the Mariners' Dave Fleming. And looking at the stats, I forgot he had a second good season that might push him past Listach.

It wasn't a Brewer. There were four main candidates that year, Listach, Eldred, Lofton and the Mariners' Dave Fleming. And looking at the stats, I forgot he had a second good season that might push him past Listach.