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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    The cynic in me says that the Brewers are being used to get the Cubs to panic, but this would be a big-time get.
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    The more I look at it, the more I wonder if Erceg starting in AA might be best for all involved. He gets a chance to build up success at that level while playing every day and the Brewers alleviate some of the playing time conundrum caused by having six position players on the 40-man plus a couple of top prospects not on it on the same roster. He can still log a half-season-plus at AAA even if he doesn't start there, and chances are injuries, attrition or performance could ease any playing time issues by then. I know given the versatility of a lot of the guys, you could probably have eight non-catchers log starter equivalent time if you don't care about Orf and whomever fills the other bench spot getting much time, but, when couple with Erceg's struggles last year, I wonder if this isn't a more natural fit.
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    Between some of the starts in the minor league games (which admittedly isn't foolproof), what is being reported, common sense and the fact that it looks like Supak is listed as being optioned to Biloxi (still surprised there), it appears as if it is down to Brown, Houser, Tomlin, Smith, Wilkerson and whomever doesn't make the big league rotation, likely Peralta if they don't use him in the bullpen.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm not sure they do split the catchers up. There are plenty of DH at bats available in Carolina, especially given that there isn't exactly a crunch at any other position, and I'm guessing they'll give Fry at least as many catching chances in A-ball as Harrison got early last season in order to see if the experiment is going to work. Best case scenario: One of them plays well enough to earn a AA spot for the second half. I'm also think it is very feasible Diplan ends up as a reliever this season. If they believe he'll end up in the bullpen eventually, they might just make the switch now to try to see how his stuff plays (The options are ticking away). Or they might keep him in the rotation in order to give him more innings to work on things. He, Kirby and Andrews are probably the three most interesting starter/reliever calls for the top three levels of the minors this season.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    It is interesting the variety of opinion on Nottingham's defense. MLB Pipeline seems to indicate he can definitely stay at catcher, while Fangraphs doesn't have him in the top 32 and doesn't seem to think he's close to good enough yet behind the plate. I also think 16 seems low for him given the writeup. I wonder if some of the optimism surrounding the system despite the ranking involves the fact that the Brewers seem to have had more luck developing pitchers recently than in years past so the likelihood of success with some of the guys nationally considered fringier seems greater.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    I'd toss Zhao on that list. The reports from instructs seem to indicate a pretty high ceiling so if he makes it to Wisconsin next year and pitches well, I think he's a guy who could really shoot up prospect lists. Definitely with you on Ashby, though. It is tough to put this kind of label on a fourth-rounder from a JUCO, but you could make the case given the current makeup of the organization from the Majors on down that he is the second most important prospect behind Hiura. His ceiling just seems noticeably higher than any lefty starting prospect who has already glimpsed full season ball.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    It just hit me looking at the minor league spring training roster that was tweeted out, they really don't have many spare hitters (outside of the catching where they usually keep one taxi squaded for each roster). I'm just counting two or three extras at AAA-A+, so depending on injuries, things could get a bit dicey. Pitchers on the other hand, they could staff two full A+ teams.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    I doubt that Erceg would have gotten a spring training invite if they were that down on him. It wouldn't shock me if he spent the first half of the year in AA, though. He did struggle most of last year, so I don't know that an automatic promotion is a given.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    Even if he does start the season at AAA, the playing time angle is really only an issue if he, Gatewood and Erceg are all on the AAA roster to start the season. If Erceg starts the year in AA or Gatewood isn't ready coming out of spring training, then he'd slot into the spot that player is assumed to get.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    Just finished "Russian Doll." Basically it's what you'd get if you took the premise of "Groundhog's Day" and some of the themes of "The Good Place" and then made the whole thing really dark. It's not something that I'd feel comfortable recommending simply because the tone isn't for everyone and a few of the early episodes felt like they were spinning their wheels a bit, but once it hit its stride I really felt myself connecting to it. Speaking of "The Good Place," the recent season finale confirmed that this is still my favorite show on television, network or otherwise. I'm shocked that a heavily serialized network sitcom about moral philosophy has not just lasted three seasons but also been renewed for a fourth, but I'm sure glad it has. Oh, and for the recent posts about "Cheers," Ted Danson's comedy chops have not faded with age. At all.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    This is probably just a conspiracy theory from the addled brain of a dad whose five-month-old is having trouble sleeping, but might the players have become the victims in a scenario in which they weren't the targets? While there have been a few smaller market owners who have just pocketed revenue sharing checks (as the larger markets are prone to point out) a lot of the excess spending room now seems to be with the larger markets not spending as they once did. Might their thought process be not so much focused on avoiding the luxury tax as much as avoiding showing the luxury tax to not be an effective means of reducing the game's economic disparity thereby increasing calls for more substantive revenue sharing? Either way they would likely end up with a similar competitive advantage, but this way they are the ones reaping the profits. Personally, I'd go for a system with full-non-stadium-generated revenue sharing, a salary floor, and an extra year of arbitration placed at the beginning (so same total number of years of control) and make the final year essentially a one-year deal at 110% of market value. It will absolutely never happen, and I'll be the first to tell you I have only a cursory knowledge of baseball economics, but it seems on paper at least like this, while perhaps precluding a return to the headline-generating record contracts of the past, would increase the total percentage of the revenue going to the players.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    I'm curious to the rationale behind Supak at AA. I tried to do a similar projection a few weeks ago (until I got to the Wisconsin pitching staff and just threw up my hands and said "I quit"), and he and Brown in the AAA rotation were the only two starting spots I felt completely comfortable with (everyone else seemed as if they could make a case to start at two different levels or the Brewers could move them to the pen). It does seem as if most of the top hitting prospects, other than a few Helena/Wisconsin bubble guys (Gray, Bello, Howell, possibly Rodriguez) have a clear assignment. The one I'm not 100 percent on is Erceg. The spring training invite makes me think he's headed to AAA, but he struggled last year so I wouldn't be shocked if they keep him at AA trying to stack some success. P.S. There are a few others who I don't believe are in the Brewers organization anymore (Moore, Franklin).
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    I think Braden Webb at #37 is the bigger red flag. I'm never sure with that site if they are ranking the prospects overall or by their future fantasy value. The guys who they are projecting to end up in the bullpen, like Webb, seem to have gotten substantially downgraded and guys who will likely steal a few bases got bumped up higher than they probably should be. Still the description that they give Webb doesn't seem to coincide with some of the guys they have him behind.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    I doubt it. There are legitimate concerns with Ray regarding K rate and the track record of early college draft picks who have had the kind of season that Ray did in 2017 at any point before reaching the majors is really poor. I still like him as a prospect, but I don't think he's top 25 no matter where he is.
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    It looks like other than Gatewood (will he be ready?), Archer and possibly a yet-to-be-signed backup outfielder, the entire Missions roster might be starting spring in big league camp. I'm a bit surprised given the number of catchers they usually have in camp that McDowell isn't on the list.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    I've got a feeling Anderson is moved if and only if the Brewers acquire another pitcher. For instance if they bring Miley back, I think Anderson probably gets dealt to make up the salary difference and add to the minors.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    I think Brown and Supak are the only locks. Given how many candidates there are for the big league rotation, they could end up with, at least to start the season, Davies, Peralta, Brown, Supak and Wilkerson. If someone other than Brown or Supak from the AA rotation get a spot, I’d guess it would be Harber or Webb over Diplan or Roegner who weren’t as effective in AA. If Diplan is in AAA, I am guessing it is in the bullpen. Hankins is a possibility, but I have got a feeling he repeats.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    Breakouts: Pablo Abreu: I think he or Ward has a breakout season at Wisconsin this season Max Lazar: I think he follows up his strong relative showing last year with a strong actual one now that he'll be out of Helena Longshot -- Bowden Francis: The promotion last season makes me think the Brewers see something here Bouncebacks or Comebacks: Lucas Erceg: I think he could be a Mitch Haniger-type college late bloomer Mario Feliciano: Will have to share time, but should be better after a lost season Longshot -- Preston Gainey: After the two obvious ones above, go for a real longshot. I was higher than most on him before the injuries, and for some bizarre reason I'm sticking with it.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    It's far from ideal, but given the fact that the budget is tight and they seem to want another infielder, Neil Walker on the veteran minimum might not be the worst thing. True bridge to Hiura/Dubon. I just can't see Gonzalez fitting the budget.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    I actually think greater revenue sharing would help the players. It would increase the number of teams willing to spend and most of the biggest market teams aren't spending up to their capacity because of the luxury tax. The knowledge that teams are on a more level playing field would also increase the fan pressure on teams to spend.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    It's a bit risky, but I wanted the Packers to take a swing and they did. With some of the "safer" options bandied about, my general impression was you might as well have just kept McCarthy.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    I'll always look back fondly on those final few months in 2016 when he was the most interesting man in baseball, when Fangraphs was writing a new article every week trying to find the root of his success and scratching their heads for comparables who weren't lumbering first basemen. It's too bad that the swing and miss issues kept him from consistently producing at that level because when he was on, man was it fun to watch. Wahl and Hill also add to impressions I've had of the minor leagues staffs they are likely heading for (The AAA staff has a chance to be simultaneously very good and very interesting from a potential major league contributor perspective and you could probably put together 45 different predictions of what the Wisconsin pitching staff will look like and none of them would be any less plausible than any other).
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    I've often kind of wondered if the Yankee factor works against Mussina by overshadowing the rest of his career. Because it is the Yankees, people seem to forget how good he was for a decade in Baltimore before he went to New York. He should definitely be in, in my opinion.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    And even if they are both in Wisconsin next year, neither might be the best defensive shortstop on the roster (Antonio Pinero). I think there might only be four spots for 2nd/ss/3rd, and it seems Turang and Coca are locks with Pinero, Howell and Julio Garcia as the other options.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    It seems like the moves thus far this offseason were freeing them up to spend all of their available budget on a lefty starter if they so chose, so this wouldn't shock me, although I fear the price tag ends up too high even for that.
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