Madhawk23

I admire the confidence in us automatically winning the WC game despite the notable disadvantage we would have. No way we lose that WC game. Pressure is on them, not us. Our pitching will dominate. We hit great established starters. Same with the dodger series, pressure will be enormous on them, not us, and that could mean the difference. I've gotta say, I kind of agree with this. Yes, we'd all love to win the division in back to back years here. But, the way this season has gone and the obstacles we've had to overcome - I think I'm OK slipping into one of these WC spots and playing the underdog role this year. Everyone has counted us out multiple times this year, and the "dagger" was pretty much inserted when Yeli got hurt. But, here we are - controlling our own destiny now for a playoff spot. I know we'd be an underdog in any kind of WC matchup, but with the way we use our pitching staff - I think we can at least match up OK in a 1 game playoff scenario. Then, if we take that WC game - we'd be an enormous underdog vs LA. But, as we know - this is baseball, and crazy things happen in this game we all love. So, let's go take them on right from the get-go and try to ruin their season, just like they ruined ours last year. For these reasons, I think I'm rooting for the Cards all weekend. If we can win these games vs Pitt, it would be fantastic if we can go into the last 6 games with a 2-3 game cushion on the Cubs and start to stake hold for one of those WC spots.

Man, I'm not sure if I could stomach another Game 163? Now, if you give me the choice of that or not making it at all - then of course, give me the Game 163. Personally, I'd just assume we go win this thing outright. As has already been mentioned though - that's going to require us to probably finish at either 7-4 (probably unlikely this wins it outrigh), 8-3 (would still need a lot of help) or 9-2 (this would probably seal the outright division title for us). Not going to be easy pulling off any of those records, especially when you consider that the law of averages might suggest that we're going to start losing some games here soon. But, it sure is fun to be right there in the mix as we head into these final 11 games.

Wow - what a terrible and sickening story. And, while I might regret saying this down the line here - I'm really starting to feel a bit bad for Pirates fans. First of all, they have to live with that STUPID trade that their GM made last summer for Archer, and now this happens just a month or so after they didn't trade one of their few valuable trade pieces at the deadline. Now, they may never see this guy throw another pitch for them again (at least he shouldn't pitch again if MLB knows what's right), and they'll never get any prospect capital for him. Just appears as if this franchise can't buy a break right now - although their GM certainly has done them no favors.

I'm pretty sure that's a world that we'd all love to live in here in a couple of weeks! Highly unlikely of course, but boy would that be great!

They will need at least one sweep to get to a 9-3 finish and 90 total wins. Our best chance at a sweep is probably the Pirates series this weekend. The Reds series is what scares me the most, we are only 8-8 against them this year and they will love to play spoiler. Yeah, for as "easy" as our schedule may look to an outsider looking at it - I think we all know how challenging this is going to be for us. The Pads already swept us in SD earlier this year, and we despite our success against Pitt this year - I'm sure they would like nothing less than to play spoiler. Regardless though, we need to find a way to go 5-2 on this home stand. But, this upcoming road trip does really scare me. First, the Reds are a much better team than their record would indicate - especially if they do line up with Gray, Castillo and DeScalfani against us next week. And, we already know that crazy things can happen in Coors Field. Not to mention, lets not forget that we ended the Rockies season last year in the playoffs - and I'm sure they would like nothing more than to end our season this year. Definitely not going to be an easy 12 games here, despite what the records of these teams would suggest.

I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen.

At this stage - are we better off just rooting for one of these three teams ahead of us (Cards, Cubs or Nats) to lose a bunch of these games, even if it means that one of the other teams get ridiculously hot? For example, I'm assuming that it would just be best for us to have one of the Cards/Cubs to win 5-6 of their 7 head to head matchups? Yes, that probably will then mean that one of them will end up winning the division, but it would also give us a better shot at sneaking into one of the WC spots - assuming of course that we can finish strong here and put up an 8-4 type record in our remaining 12 games. Or, do we really hope that they just beat up on each other over the next 12 games - sticking both teams with 3-4 losses, and hope that we stay this red hot over the final stretch and put up a 9-3 type record and come in and steal the division? Obviously, I know this is the better of the two options, but I feel like this is still a major long shot.

Does anyone think that all of these post-Yeli injury wins are hurting his chances even more now? Yes, we all know how valuable and ridiculously talented Yeli is for this Brewers team, but I wonder if his chances would have been higher had the team just completely tanked after he went out with the injury? With that said though - I'd much rather see this team get one of these playoff spots, if it means that Yeli loses MVP votes this year.

Madtownhawk hasn't updated his August 8 vision in a while so I thought I would give him some props. He has been pretty close so far (the Brewers actually have one more win than the path he identified). It has helped that 2 of the extra wins were against the Cubs who we are chasing for the 2nd wild card. Looking ahead, his view of 10-6 in the last 16 seems pretty realistic (though it might be 1/3 vs. STL and 3/4 vs. SD). However, like many of us, he didn't anticipate the Cardinals playing out of their minds the past month to make our chase of the Cubs for the WC instead of the division title. Thanks for updating this last week IIAY! I was thrilled to see the Crew play one game better than my prediction (especially after the Yeli injury), but thought for sure we'd fall back in STL. But, this group just continues to find a way. Still one game ahead of my pace towards 87 wins. Now, I only had us splitting the SD series and taking 2/3 against Pitt. I think we might need to go 5-2 on this homestand now if we really want to make a run at one of these playoff spots. Not sure if 87 gets it done anymore, and so I think picking up a game on my prediction for this home stand is key. Then, I think we are still going to need to go out and take 2/3 in each of those series on the last road trip. Not going to be easy (especially without the MVP), but it's fun that we are at least playing very meaningful games with 2 weeks remaining.

Can you imagine the pain and misery Cubs fans will have if we somehow sneak in and take their WC spot WITHOUT Yelich in the lineup these final three weeks! Let's rally the troops boys and make that happen.

If we can get Moose and Hiura back healthy and get them hot down the stretch - there is still enough juice in that lineup to score some runs. Just need to get a few guys hot here at the same time.

I don't think anyone with a "right mind" is going to argue that this lineup is better without Yelich in it. But, the schedule just might be bad enough that this team still pulls off the miracle and sneaks their way into that final WC spot? Let's not overlook the fact either that the Nats still have to play 2 @Min, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs STL, 5 vs PHI and 3 vs CLE (with three sprinkled in against MIA). Man, that's a brutal stretch to end the season. So, it's possible too that both WC spots come into play before this thing is all said and done. It's absolutely gut wrenching to lose Yelich, but hopefully this team will really rally around this now and guys will step up in his absence. Getting Moose back (hopefully starting tonight) and Keston back maybe in the next week would be huge. And, let's hope we can start to sprinkle Woody back into some pitching some important innings down the stretch run as well. It feels a bit bleak right now, but we're still right in this thing. Will this team go far in the playoffs if they do make it? Probably not, but it would still be a heck of an accomplishment to get one of those WC spots with all of the obstacles that they would have had to overcome.

Just for fun, I thought I would revisit this projection today - now that we are about 1/2 way through it. I thought when I looked back on this today that we would be way off my projection at this point - but to my surprise, we are only a game behind - through the Cubs series that wrapped up on Sunday. Now, we are going to need to win tonight in game 2 vs the Astros to remain a game behind (I had us splitting this series, and we've obviously lost the first game already). If (and I know it's a HUGE "if") we can win tonight, and then somehow find a way to take 3/4 from the Cubs this weekend (that's almost a "must have" situation), then we'll somehow be back in line with my projection towards 87 wins. Unfortunately though - I had us then winning every series from the final Cubs series forward, and it's really hard to envision this team accomplishing such a feat at this stage, the way they continue to play (not to mention all of the injuries that have mounted now). Well, go figure - we did what we had to do last week (winning the 2nd game against the Stros and 3/4 against the Cubs) to get back on track with my projected route to 87 wins. Now, who knows if 87 wins will be enough to get the 2nd WC - but I've got to figure that it'll at least keep us in the conversation right up until that last weekend of the season. I had us needing to go 13-7 now in this final 20 game stretch, so as has already been stated - this team is going to have to play really good baseball during these final three weeks if they are to make a run. 3/4 in Miami is almost a "must" at this point.

And, this is my biggest concern. As much as I hate the Cubs - and want to see us win as many games as possible from them, I'd almost rather see us lose 3/4 this weekend than to split this series. Splitting this series will do nothing for us. Yes, we'll have a very small percentage of hope remaining, but I just don't see any way we are going to make up 4 games with 20 games to play, especially when none of those remaining games are against the Cubs. As others have already noted - our season basically comes down to these 4 games this weekend. Need to win 3/4 to keep hope alive. Anything less than that, and you can stick a fork in this season. I won’t deny these aren’t important games. But, if we split the series it’s not over. Remember the Cubbies play the Cards 7 more times. And Hiura should be back for the last 2 weeks, and Woody the last week at least. I wouldn’t be surprised if we win our last 10 games if needed. I get what you are saying, but the Cubs also have 4 against the Padres, 6 against the Pirates and 3 against the now floundering Reds. So, we might literally need a situation where the Cards go 5-2 or 6-1 against the Cubs in those remaining head-to-head's. That's a lot to ask.

And, this is my biggest concern. As much as I hate the Cubs - and want to see us win as many games as possible from them, I'd almost rather see us lose 3/4 this weekend than to split this series. Splitting this series will do nothing for us. Yes, we'll have a very small percentage of hope remaining, but I just don't see any way we are going to make up 4 games with 20 games to play, especially when none of those remaining games are against the Cubs. As others have already noted - our season basically comes down to these 4 games this weekend. Need to win 3/4 to keep hope alive. Anything less than that, and you can stick a fork in this season.

So, what do people think it would take to sign Pomeranz in the off season? We're talking about a guy that made 1.5M this year. Would a 2 year 5M type deal get it done (similar to what we gave Albers before last season)? Or, will he get more after what he showed out of the pen during the 2nd half of this year? I would love to bring him back, if we can get him on a team friendly deal. But, it's not like other teams aren't also watching what he's doing right now, so I wonder if some team offers him more?

Just for fun, I thought I would revisit this projection today - now that we are about 1/2 way through it. I thought when I looked back on this today that we would be way off my projection at this point - but to my surprise, we are only a game behind - through the Cubs series that wrapped up on Sunday. Now, we are going to need to win tonight in game 2 vs the Astros to remain a game behind (I had us splitting this series, and we've obviously lost the first game already). If (and I know it's a HUGE "if") we can win tonight, and then somehow find a way to take 3/4 from the Cubs this weekend (that's almost a "must have" situation), then we'll somehow be back in line with my projection towards 87 wins. Unfortunately though - I had us then winning every series from the final Cubs series forward, and it's really hard to envision this team accomplishing such a feat at this stage, the way they continue to play (not to mention all of the injuries that have mounted now).

Didn't realize what tickets were going for on Stubhub. If anyone wants to make an offer then, feel free. Otherwise, I guess I'll just eat the tickets.

Anyone in the Madison area interested in purchasing 2 tickets for next Tuesday night's game against the Astros? Tickets are in section 208, row 10, seats 3&4 and would include preferred parking pass. I have the tickets on the MLB Ballpark App - so you would need to have that app downloaded for me to transfer the tickets over to you. The parking pass is also in the app, so I would transfer that over at the same time. Face value for the two tickets and parking is $85, but I would be willing to sell for $75 to anyone here. Again - would probably need to do the exchange here in Madison yet this week, or on Mon/Tues next week.

What are the chances that Mario starts to sniff some Top 100 prospect lists this offseason? A catcher that is only 20 years old, and wins the MVP of the Carolina League! That has to start getting you recognized with some of the best prospects in baseball, doesn't it? I know Henry is the elite defensive catcher, but I think Mario holds his own defensively as well, doesn't he?

Figured that I would check back in on these projections now that we've gotten through a few series since I posted what I thought it would take for the Crew to make the playoffs. We took care of business by beating Tex 2/3 and by splitting that Twins series, but we lost the series against the Nats that I thought we needed to win (since we were missing Strasburg and Scherzer). So, we need to make that up somewhere, and I can't think of a better place to do that than in STL this week. Need 2/3 here, especially with us missing Mikolas and Flaherty (arguably their two best SP's).

Needless to say, our 2019 season will probably come down to these next few weeks of games. 3 at STL, 3 vs AZ, 3 vs STL, 3 at CHC, 2 vs HOU and then 4 vs CHC. Does going 9-9 in this stretch keep us in the hunt? Honestly, a .500 record in this brutal stretch feels like it's probably a best-case scenario - and much more likely that this team plays under .500 against this high-level competition. If we do go 9-9 in this stretch, I think it's probably going to take something like a 15-5 record in the final 20 games (after this stretch) to get us into the playoff picture at the end of the year.

I remember there being a decent amount of hype around Francis entering last year's MILB season, and then he went out and pitched OK - but didn't do nearly enough to vault himself into a higher prospect level. This year though, he looks like a guy that might be starting to figure some things out. So, I'm just curious if anyone more "in the know" can give us a scouting report on this guy. Is he worth getting excited about? Obviously, you have to love his AA pitching line last night of 5 IP and 11 K's. Thanks in advance.

Yeah - as bad as the pundits say our farm system is right now (and I'm not going to completely dismiss them), I would still say that we've had some really nice developments this year: Hiura - what more can you really say about this kid? Future All-Star, and just needs to continue to improve his defense. Grisham - This former 1st round pick was on the verge of losing all of his remaining "prospect" status (however much was even left) coming into this season, and what he's done this year is really remarkable. Turang - I know he's struggled with the bat since going up to High A ball, but this is still a 19 year old kid - and I'd be shocked if he doesn't come out next spring and perform very well at this level and eventually get a promotion up to AA next summer. Lutz - don't look now, but he's got that batting average close to .260 and he might have a chance to get his OPS up around .800 with a strong finish. All of this in a very tough hitting environment as a 20 year old. Small/Ashby - while I'm not sure if either guy will be a TOR arm at the big league level, I think we have a couple of guys here that have good potential to be in our rotation and contributing in another couple of years (maybe sooner?) D. Williams/Rasmussen - two exciting pen arms, and Devin already starting to contribute for the Brewers E. Fernandez - 10 home runs down in the DSL this summer. Excited to see what this kid will turn into, and we have some other young and exciting latin teenagers that could blossom in the next couple of years. Yeah, the system may not have a bunch of Top 100 guys right now, but I do think we've got two big-time rookies in Hiura/Grisham - who will contribute for years to come at the MLB level. And, I think we have a decent number of guys in that 101-200 range that might be on the fringe of making their way up into the Top 100 during the next couple of years if they continue to develop.

As much as it pains me to say this, I think we end up missing the playoffs - with either 85-86 wins. I just don't think a rotation of Chase, Gio, Lyles and Houser is good enough to get us through these next few weeks, and we'll probably be too far out of it by the time Woody and any other reinforcements are ready to help out in September. Hope I'm wrong though! Now would be a great time for this offense to get really hot and take some pressure off of the pitching.