Boomer5

The problem as to having Ace potential, is he has no place to harness that potential except at the ML level. How likely is that when he's going to have 60-75 IP limits raised by 30IP a season? You're talking Year 6 of team control if we're lucky to see 30+GS of Ace potential. I just think he's facing a long uphill battle just to get to the 30Games starting ability much less showing Ace in his performances. Damaged goods that need to hold together at least 4 years to reach that type of player. He'll be ripe for 2nd TJ likelihood about then. And to me, Ace is somebody who pitched 220+IP for a team. 185 isn't Ace even if he's got under a 3.25ERA. There's just going to be such an innings limit problem while having to remain on a 25man roster that a team is going to put him in the bullpen. Pitching to 1-5batters isn't going to lead to a burdgeoning ace. If Bundy shows that he pitch to a sub 4 ERA and 150 innings in 2017, he will be worth a ton as a trade chip, certainly more than Braun would if they hold on to him past 2017. The Brewers are in a somewhat unique position where they can develop him at the major league level because who cares what he does or doesnt do this year? Again, I am not suggesting he be the prime target in a trade, but merely an interesting piece to add and if we can unload Brauns contract and pick up someone of his potential, that is what a team in our position does. Unless you want to ride Braun into the ground paying him top dollar to hit in the 3 hole for a very bad team the next 3 years?

The Brewers are in all likelihood going to have to eat some or most of the back end of the contract in a trade (and maybe even un-defer the deferrals to facilitate waiving his no-trade clause), making it more or less a future sunk cost. Based on the assumption that they're going to pay for him to some degree whether they have him or not, I don't know how much Braun's potential production in 2019 and 2020 really matters to the Brewers, in terms of value. What does matter to the Brewers right now is, he's coming off back surgery and they have to see how his thumb holds up. Much for the same reason no one has yet traded for Lucroy, other teams want to see Braun produce when healthy. Right now, no one has. Therefore if Braun does show he is still the same guy he was last year, his trade value goes up once he plays. If another team thinks that Braun will produce at a high level for a few years, they'll pay the price for that production, assuming the Brewers shoulder some (most?) of the responsibility for when that production is likely to tail off. The Brewers should absolutely not trade Braun just to trade him. That would be tanking. Which is not what they're doing. Which is why he's still on the team. Khris Davis and his 20 HRs in Aug/Sep and 4 years of team control says hello. That being said, as soon as Braun shows he is healthy, he will be traded assuming the market wants him. How much of the contract they pick up is based on the return. I assume with a Bundy because of his situation(s) that we wouldnt have to pick up much if any.

Garza isnt starting opening day unless he lights it up in spring. Opening day is supposed to be reward. If Garza starts opening day, the T word is firmly in play.

See, the fiasco is how will the Os handle Bundy. I'm thinking Sean Nolin he gets waived or traded but not for anything better than a #4SP/Swingman type of reliever. They have 0power in trade talks. You keep Mr. Bundy and his 10-40IP arm on your ML roster or waive him. Why trade for him? His ceiling? He's dead-weight on a ML 25man for at least 2 seasons. So you waive him and try to outright him to the minors? Wrong he's getting claimed. The more I think of his situation the less I'd consider even trading. But to consider Braun or Lucroy to get him is ignoring Bundys last 4years and trying to relive his draft value as his trade value. I'm thinking Bundy will be lucky to have 250IP through Brauns 2020contract end. Not 800+ to create maybe equal value or better than Braun. Bundy is not an elite trade chip. He is just a trade chip and a flawed one. In a package for Luc at best he is the third asset id want back. Braun is a different category because he is not a major trade chip due to contract and injuries. Id only look at Bundy in a return if it means the Brewers dont pay a nickel of Brauns deal and they get something else of value in the deal. Why trade for Bundy? He has ace potential, which is something we really dont have in the system. He would probably be Wang for the 2016 Brewers but who cares? The Brewers arent contending for anything but the Number 1 pick so I really dont care if he pitches at all IF it means he is on his way to realizing some of his potential down the road.

How so? If Braun basically repeats his 2015 performance in 2016, which is certainly not impossible and may even be likely, his contract looks even better next offseason. Figuring in deferred money, he's being paid about market rate this year ($15 mil), and he might be paid less than market next year. With the thumb and back there is no way he will play even at 2015 levels for the entire balance of his contract. Maybe the next two years but certainly not all 5. Im not a doctor but in the no ped era, players get worse as they get older, not better. Therefore every day we have him, is a day less of production to the market.

And that is why he is still on this team. Not one single team wants to give up anything for him. The value does not exist. To be devil's advocate, with that logic, Lucroy doesn't have value either then (which obviously isn't true). Coming off surgery, I'm sure, regardless of how fair his contract is or isn't, teams are going to want to see he's healthy before there's even the possibility of someone making a move for him. Until then, it's hard to speculate interest level based solely on the fact that he hasn't been moved yet. Luc is younger, plays borderline gold glove D at a position of huge need, doesnt have a $95M anvil tied to him. He is many many many times the value of Braun right now.

His contract, while large, doesnt have an impact on the payroll in the sense that he wont stop us from signing new players or extending ones we went to keep. So why trade him? He is a declining asset and possibly severely so. He is somewhat tradable now, he likely wont be in two years when he wont be elite and have two more contract years that would likely provide no value. The Brewers wont be a play off team if he is 2012 Braun or if he is 2014 Braun. He wont be 2012 Braun on the next quality Brewer team. Therefore his production is irrelevant and if you can load up on one or two higher end prospects, why not do it?

I don't believe there is one currently. Braun has health concerns to consider for his contract. That to me is the pause in creating an offer anywhere near what if I'm Stearns am asking for. I'd guess any trade discussion discussed for Braun was what would need to headline a trade for him. After a reply a top 50+ another top 80-120 type prospect. When you're ready to talk you know my number. At this point, the discussion ends because Brauns health concerns+contract is too risky until he plays and proves he's less of a health risk. Thats part of the problem regarding a Bundy. He has to make the roster or its a fiasco. Can Braun prove he is healthy enough for the O's to make a deal with Bundy being part of it by the end of spring?

I dont see our current MLB OF'ers being much that would make me want to trade Braun per se so its a log jam in numbers if not talent. When you have 8 CF'ers it means you have zero. Until Phillips is up, it will be a revolving door. I absolutely would trade Braun the second he shows he is healthy because he is a declining asset. Id be happy to take half his contract back in a bad player like a Hill type and roll with two higher end prospects.

Do you think their is a substantial offer on the table right now for Braun? Bundy by himself isnt worth two or three seasons of Braun, which is what you'd assume he would give you with the balance being a lot of DL time. I am not suggesting Bundy is worth Braun player for player of course. However, the trade thought really is Bundy plus something plus $95Million for Braun.

If Broxton can be traded, anyone can be traded. Garza has to show something though, he was about as bad as it could get. One issue with Garza though is I think he has an innings or games started issue that would trigger his extra year? So maybe that would mean some bullpen time.

I can see one of the starters being traded.

I agree. I would hate to trade Nelson on principle, even in what is going to be a lost 2-3 years. That surely would bring back a blockbuster package. Then even you would have to use the T word

The entertainment will come from Biloxi, Wisconsin, Brevard County, and Helena and the MLB draft. I am not including Colorado Springs because I despise that we are located there though Arcia and Phillips will be and they are potentially special. Milwaukee will be the opposite of entertainment if you are into good baseball. If a 4th/5th OF who can draw walks, hits for no power, no speed, and plays average D is entertaining, knock yourself out.

He is an interesting case. In the playoffs, he looked like the worst defensive OF I have ever seen but it seemed like he hit a HR in every game he played too. Still, his hitting numbers on the season weren't that great and did get worse as the season went on until the playoffs. I cant imagine the Cubs trading him until they figure out exactly what he is. If there is any hope he can become a catcher, I dont know there is a trade out there that would satisfy the Cubs. In 20 games as a C, he was a 1037 OPS. Thats Johnny Bench stuff.

They just signed Victorino to a minor league contract too????

This is good in theory, but falls in the "takes two to tango" category. Just because the Diamondbacks are happy to throw away their top prospects, I think it would be difficult to find a lot of other teams willing to make these types of trades... certainly not enough to eat up a significant portion of the money saved with Braun off the books. A more likely scenario is that when/if Braun is traded, the Brewers will take on a 1-2 year contract in that trade to offset some of the cost of Braun's contract and therefore net more in prospects. That 1-2 year contract will then be off the books when the Brewers are ready to start adding free agents to the young core of Phillips/Arcia/other prospects. As to Bundy for Braun, I think that's too much risk to take for the Brewers. If they trade Braun, one of the best players in franchise history, for one player, and that player totally flames out due to injury, fans will be slamming the team for it for the next 40 years. I think it's far better to go for the "Gomez-style" deal with four prospects, at least two of which are very likely to have MLB careers. If a Gomez/Fiers trade (one of the best I can ever remember as a Brewer fan) is available for Braun/Anderson the Brewers need to immediately take that deal. I cant imagine it is though unless the Brewers take back a horrendous contract.

Of the players currently on the roster. I am for the moment not assuming a Luc trade or a Braun DL to open the season 1. CF - Speed and OBA will win this spot, I am assuming Broxton or Reed but since both have options, they might lose the numbers game 2. Villars SS - OBA Speed, some pop. Bad D but could be a sneaky good hitter/SB guy 3. Braun LF - Best overall hitter, concerned about back 4. Luc C - 2nd Best overall hitter though I cant imagine him not being traded 5. Santana RF - Power, could end up being our biggest run producer 6. Carter 1B - Power 7. Scooter 2B - Classic 7/8 hitter 8. Hill 3B - He has to go somewhere I suppose

Fowler just signed with the Cubs.

Diaz was essentially bought for $6.5M. Even if Mark A pockets 2/3 of the money which could certainly happen if the team is as bad as I have been suggesting durring the Tan....I mean rebuild, such a trade could still be viewed as Braun for Bundy plus 5 Diaz's.

Prince Fielder 2007 matched Khris Davis with 20 also. Thanks! I didn't look it up, but that is impressive that Davis is in that kind of company.

Braun for Bundy is a very interesting concept. I feel it is an easy decision for the Orioles, but the Brewers not so much. Trading away one of your franchises greatest players for a extreme risk high reward player would be quite the gamble. Though by far the best player we could hope for in a Braun trade. I like Bundy and all, but the injuries are scary. I just don't know if he will ever last the way he is going. I would love to add an ace type prospect to this team, but I just don't like Bundy's chances. I would rather Braun just be a leader on the rebuilding team. Its Bundy plus $95M for Braun essentially. Im more luke warm on Braun's contract after seeing JHey's but lets face it, Braun the 850 guy will not be present for the next good Brewer team. I dont think its a stretch that Braun will be a 100 to 120 game guy in year 3-5. His production by then is anyone's guess. I too don't like Bundys chances to ever be an ace, but it is a chance, and other than perhaps Nelson, I dont think there is a guy currently in the system that profiles as a legitimate Ace. The way I look at it is with the $95M on the books, the Brewers could in theory make 1-2 Diamondback type trades a year for the next 5 years by picking up a bad expiring contract in exchange for taking on a Diaz or a Toussaint type guy. To take that to the next (admittedly wild suggestion) level for discussion purposes only on use of the $95M asset, that would be Bundy plus the equivalent of 8-9 Toussaints/Diaz's.

This made no sense to me and seemed just oddly off. My initial thought was 'well of course that's the case, you get more at bats with no people on than with people on, thus you'd expect more solo home runs. So I decided to do some math. Khris Davis has 1142 career ABs; 628 of them have come with no runners on. That meas 55% of his at bats the only 'home run' outcome is a solo home run. There were 4909 home runs hit last year in MLB. 2887 of them were hit with no one on. That's .588, we'll say 59%. All of MLB isn't a power hitter. Khris Davis hit 17 solo home runs last season; 27 home runs total; or .629. So we'll call it 63. Players with a higher percentage of solo home runs include Alex Rodriguez at 76%, Mike Trout at 78%, Manny Machado 74%, and Josh Donaldson at 68% More striking to me is that 10 of Davis's home runs came when he was leading off an inning. Over half of his solo home runs, he was the first person to Bat that inning. I'm sorry he didn't hit a single instead? Albert Pujols ended with .625. or 63% as well. Bryce Harper ended with 25 solo home runs, on 42 total home runs or 59.5%. 12 of his 42 came when leading off an inning. His last four home runs were with runners on. If you take those out, it's 66%. Which to me shows how finicky this statistic can be. So really looking at league averages, I don't think it's unreasonable for a power hitter to have 63% of his home runs be solo shots while playing on a team that ranks 25th in OBP. So lampooning Davis because he hits solo home runs, seems, well, off, for lack of a better term. And, further to the point of power not producing runs, I'm pretty sure if every one of his lead off home runs had been a single or a double, the Brewers would have scored fewer runs on the season. Great post you clearly did your homework. Davis hit 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, which I would have to imagine is a Brewer record. Guys like him arent easy to replace especially factoring in age and years of control.

Hill had 8 HR in 520 AB's in 2011 and 26 in 609 AB's in 2012. So what's your point? He's been up and down and back up. Nobody's saying he will hit 20+ HR in 2016, only that he's capable of bouncing back based on his having already done so in significant fashion. It's worth it to give him that chance. He has a .955 career FP at 3B. That's above league average. Counsell's penciling in Hill as a starter is shows that Counsell realizes that even when a team is in rebuild mode, the manager owns the team's record and he's going to use the players he does have that give them the best chance of winning as many games as possible even if that ceiling is 72 or so wins. If Hill doesn't produce, they'll look at other options, but he's the one guy who's actually put up numbers in the big leagues. He is certainly the teams best 3B candidate and it was absolutely the right call to pencil him as the starter going into camp. That ends the positives on Hill. My only point is that hopes that he becomes a quality player again at 34 and worthy of decent trade chip in July is statistically remote in a non PED world. Id love to see Cecchini develop but in no way should he be considered the starter over Hill in February.

[sarcasm]I disagree[/sarcasm] Honestly, on this team it wouldnt matter if Yuni was back so you are right, spot starting a Flores isn't going to make them any worse than they are now.