tmwiese55

"University location is a minor factor for elite recruits." This statement is 100% false. Location is the #1 predictor of where a kid will go. Do a bit of research on it and it's clear, 5-10 mins on google will do it, the data is all out there. Long story short, kids almost always stay within 3 states of home. Essentially, they stay within driving distance of home, 6ish hour radius from home.

Saw this earlier, good pointing it out. As much as the hype last year was around letting it fly. The stability of having tons of points in the paint with top notch efficiency was crucial to have in your back pocket every night as variance happens on 3s. Bledsoe is good at this, but has been bad so far. Giannis, same as we've talked about. But Xs and Os mentioned here and the copying Tor D to stop this, have to have the motions and things just mentioned here as other ways to get creases to the hoop.

They posted Lopez up because Houston put a 6'5" guy on him. My second biggest worry is the teams current happiness with early shot clock above the break 3's, often times with only one pass and no screens at all. Ball movement, handoffs, screens still need to happen, even in the 5-out offense. The Korver/Giannis two man game being a prime example. My biggest worry is Giannis doesn't seem like himself. He's shot at least 6-7 layups this year already, which would've been dunks last year. Right, but that's not something they really used last year. It was the right move and he is still a great low post guy, no reason not to sprinkle it in to mix things up. Your next two lines are what I was getting at as well. This stand and stare at Giannis while he barrels into a set D needs to countered with the stuff you listed. to me I want to see giannis ally oop dunking multiple times a game as the roll man. Think Deandre Jordan on steroids (or more steroids lol). Agree giannis has just been a bit off. I do chalk most up to the Xs and Os stuff we just mentioned. But yea could be a combo of playing late into the playoffs and international. Then by the time he takes a bit of RnR the season is starting

Delete the 2018 season as I have and essentially they've had 1 trip up in 10 years. I suppose that last BB year could count as trip ups but that team just wasn't good, remember the QB problems and playing 5th year permanently injured Phillips out of desperation. Even for 2018, you could also argue BYU and MN losses weren't in the slip up categories, bit of semantics. Illinois is perennial bottom feeder lately, so 100% counts. BYU definitely is not that. MN, while not great lately usually are middle of the pack-ish and win 5-8 games a year. The manner in which they lost that MN game though, woof. You're gonna lose some games though, losing to the mid level teams like these are not good, but it's gonna happen. Losing to the Illinois, Kansas, Rugers, bad mid major MAC types, yea that's a different level. Guess that's all I'm trying to say in the 2nd paragraph.

Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year. Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.

That is basically a perfect post. Well said

The only different from last year on the ages is essentially swapping a 27 yr old guard for Wes and Korver to take his minutes. That's really it. The team was old last year too. It's 4 games. No need to panic. I don't think there is any clear roster construction mess up that points like this try to imply. I think there is or will be an Xs and Os thing of teams adjusting to what MKE did last year and using the Tor blueprint as much as possible. In the Houston game they seemed to have a counter in place with the Lopez post ups. But they need to be more diverse on O. And IMO less Giannis dribbling outside barreling into a set D. Need more motions and more Giannis as the slasher/finisher/crasher/dunker/ally ooper type guy. And simply Bledsoe and Giannis have to play better than they have.

Yes, 2018 was bad. For whatever reason something was off there, chemistry issues with the QB/OL. The Cephus/WR situation and scandal. All that. Granted, I get the HC is ultimately responsible. But as of now I'm deleting that from my memory. Nothing JC said there is wrong or out of line. One nitpick I'd have is you're implying as if this was an easy schedule (2017 was a cakewalk schedule). This year's schedule is legit tough. Got 3/4 of the top West teams, plus Nebraska on the road. Now MN on the road is a legit game. Still have more than solid Iowa. Oh, and a true road game to open the year vs a non cupcake team. Sure not power 5 but they're not your typical MAC or Georgia Easter Poly tech type team. This was considered a very tough schedule. Again, it essentially comes down to one fluke loss that shouldn't happen, otherwise they'd be exactly where we hoped they'd be in a best case scenario. If not even better due to how badly they destroyed UM and MSU One crazy thing about Beliema is that he basically pounded everyone he should've from 2009ish on until his last year. No bad losses and usually not even a scare. Just complete destruction as they could run on anyone no matter how many in the box. Rarely beat teams they shouldn't and lost many close games late, but if you played an IU/Purdue it was gonna be a bloodbath. Now our blah O let's teams hang around

Just saw a tweet on that yesterday. A favorite of 17+ pts has lost 3 weeks in a row, 6 total in that span. OU was about a 24 pt fave last week and lost.

Last sentence is exactly right. Illinois was a horrible embarrassing loss, but it was a fluke and not some grand sign of problems. Upsets happen. Good teams play crap games vs inferior teams and often hold on and pull it out, they just didn't. OSU was expected, they're ridiculous this year and it's on the road. Now, if they lose two more here to end the year. Yes, huge disappointment after such a great start and considering they ended up with good QB play (huge ? going into year).

That wasn't a problem last year. That was a big thing under Kidd, last year it wasn't. They got up big, and won by over 10 almost every game. It was actually kinda boring. So far, I guess my takeaway is that it's a reminder as to how rare a season like last year is to have that kind of point margin and just straight domination. It's not supposed to be that easy. They're now the team with the target on their back and integrating a few new players. No need to panic. But, Giannis FTs is something that needs to improved. Gotta be a mental thing at this point

I really don't think they have an abundance of guys who 'need' the ball in their hands or at least ones that should. If anything, one key thing they're missing is another guy with a playmaker skillset, to get his own shot (and be a good shooter) but to create creases and O in general. Think of backup PG types like Van Vleet, LouWill, Barrea years ago, etc. We have Giannis, who really could benefit from a creator where he can just be the finisher/dunker. So a reduction in his ballhandling is probably a good thing. Then we have Bledsoe, then what? George Hill? IMO this is the skillset their missing, but no you also don't need to pay 40 mil for this skillset either in a guy like Paul. I had my eye on Carson Edwards from Purdue for this reason. He did great in summer and preseason, not sure how much PT he's gotten in the few games so far.

Yea they've had plenty of success on crosses/slants all year when they need that type of yardage too and he's done great with them. Has to be some kind of play call where all those things are options based on what the D does. One would think those type of routes would be better vs a zone D. I suppose a logical thing could be they viewed the out like that as low risk for a pick where as slants and things over the middle are more prone to weird thigns happening. The irony of course is a pick still happened. Agree Taylor should be out there. if the D just drops out and you audible to the draw you'd prefer him getting it. I like Groshek and have nothing negative to say about him. But, I do think he gets used more than he should. Not unlike many of us probably said about Hernan Perez, like him and good guy to have but he shouldn't be playing as much as he did.

As one of the first people to bring up Seager I think I do it. But, I also spend a few days bargaining with them to try and get more added on their end. Eventually I think I would cave and then have the end goal of buying out a year or two of FA from Seager as soon as you get him to try and reduce that 4 vs 2 issue. Volatility of relievers combined with an everyday high quality SS being more valuable than a RP I think is what pushes me over the edge. I also see some more bounceback coming from Seager as this was his first year after that injury. Similar to Plush, I totally see both sides and holding off on it too. Don't think anyone is 'crazy' to take either side here. I guess that's a sign that you generally have a fairly even/fair trade idea put together.

Yea I'd agree with you there. It was one of our most predictable plays and stared it down (something he hasn't had a problem with so far), the ILL guy picked up on it and made the play. But, it's a quick route so it's not like there is really any time to look elsewhere. They had the D called knowing that was a common play. I have no idea what other options were out there for Coan to do anything different, would have to look again and would need all 22 angle. IMO it's tough to rip Coan too hard considering he's been great on on 3rd and 4th down passing all year, including in that game. No one's perfect. Bottomline, if the Heisman superstar RB doesn't fumble they win that game.

He's also been known to be a problem in the locker room for years now, more or less just a jerk to be around. I'm all for trying to find an upgrade to Bled (though I'm a Bled supporter and he gets too much hate) who is a better shooter. But I really think it's best to keep away from CP3 given everything here. If he gets a buyout I'm sure he'll go to LAL.

I do get that by letter of the law it's probably the correct call. However, I think the rule should be tweaked. First thing, the base is in fair territory yet the runner isn't technically allowed to be in fair territory. He didn't make contact with the 1B, the 1B made contact with him. He was running the same way 98% of people going to 1B (without intent of rounding) run to 1B. He did nothing but run to the base. Either put the softball base in or adjust the rule to all them to run straight at the base, change the lines/dirt or something. Plus, he was going to beat the play anyway I think. So Hou basically benefitted by making a bad throw. Though seeing a replay again now I'm not 100% on this.

Regardless, it was 3rd and 5. And the way the D was playing you needed the 1st to end the game or you knew you were in serious trouble. You basically had to throw unless they just pulled everyone from the box and gave the easy run. They knew that out to the TE was a completely common play and they called a D to defend it. And still, if that pass is what 8 inches higher it's a 1st and the game is over. That kid dropped a little extra because he knew the game situation and he made a great play. I guess I don't even recall the point that was trying to be made about Cover 2. I just brought this up in regards to saying they should've ran, when they really shouldn't have in that situation. And to point out how it was a great play by that kid and inches away from a complete pass as the throw was right on the money. Couple little things like that can go eitehr way in a close game to decide a game and it's not some grand judgment on a coach.

Long story short the main ways to get UW to the next level as the complainers here and all over right now are clamoring are these options (not in any particular order) 1) relocate the school to the south, or some kind of better recruiting territory 2) somehow go back and turn them into a historical power 3) straight cheat with paying players 4) get rid of academic standards Call me crazy, but I don't think any of those 4 are happening. So let's accept it, realize the coaches are doing their best and do really want to beat OSU, continue to take pride in not being a scumbag university, and continue to root for the underdog. It'll be all that much sweeter if they ever win it. Also, get the Ringz mindset out of our heads. We're not competing for the same things as the SEC. Beating your rivals, winning your division and conference has value as fans. Again, as I've said through this all. They definitely can still improve and accepting Iowa level of mediocrity should not be accepted. But hovering this 2nd tier of CFB is a very good spot to be in, and not easy to replicate if you go scorched earth firing everyone. Our 2010-11 offense combined with the 2016ish-now D is a serious Title contender. Just need to line the timing up at some point. And at this point, after 5ish years of underperforming on O and OLine I think you have to make some tweaks.

Yup, no reason they should have lost that one in 2011. Two games and the best team UW ever had ruined by not blocking on punts. Forget the hail marys, if they don't give up punt block TDs in both games they win them both and would've been playing for the national title vs a very beatable LSU team. That was it right there. Dumbest part is it happened at MSU and he didn't even change it for the next week, exact same play worked again.

Well, we do hang with them. We just don't win. It really makes no sense as to how Purdue has beaten them. Kicking ideas, we run such a basic system that it's easy for OSU to stuff our O. Whereas a Purdue at least runs that spread stuff so can catch lightning in a bottle and rip off some big plays. Also, and this comes from OSU people I spent the last 3 days with, is that OSU goes into every game vs UW knowing it's a big game and they need to be ready, basically they don't sleep on UW. Whereas the Purdues and Indianas of the world they just have brain farts against (prior to this year anyway) like what we did with Illinois this year. I actually don't think IU ever beat them in recent years but they've played several games closer than they should be vs them. But really in samples this small and with how each team is different it's tough to come up with much. Like say in the OSU OT game a couple years back they call a couple blatant holds they got away with and we win are we really that different of a program? You can grab 3-6 plays in any game that ends up as close as these games have been that if the ball bounces the other way or a certain borderline penalty goes one way or the other. Vs OSU I'd say our goal (as fans) should be in every game with a chance at the end and you'll eventually pull out some Ws here and there. Generally we've done that, but haven't gotten the Ws. Obviously not this year but I think we have a freak level OSU team on our hands right now. Vs PSU, yea no reason you shouldn't be winning more than losing vs them. Same with MSU. Mich in theory should be better than us, but at this point there's no reason to fear them so continue winning more than losing vs them. Good post by Rob here, pretty much nails it. For QB recruiting, this is another thing PC has done great at. Coan, Wolf, Mertz and the future commits are all very good recruits and above what we're used to. They've also recruited better WR than we've had, they've consistently gotten high rated OL We need to start seeing it on the field from the O, actually execute it.

Yea I'd agree the PSU one is the oddity. Even back in the mid to late 00s we lost a couple in the 40 point area, one at home. For some reason they've had our number and it really shouldn't be the case. I went into that title game fully expecting to win, and after getting up 21 no way they should have lost. I mean really MSU has generally been better than PSU in the last 10ish years and we've done much better vs MSU over that span. UW has simply been a better team than PSU in this span as well. One of those years when PSU was down and had true fresh Hackenberg they came into Madison and beat us in a late season game. They should not be so clearly above us like OSU is. Granted, we have a really small sample on PSU of late but in the one big game they beat us. We should do better vs them but we also so rarely play them it's tough to pinpoint a trend. Looks like we play them in 2021 but then not again for a few more years after. Michigan, well we just beat them 2/3 in spite of all their advantages over us. Also, great post by FTC a few ago.

Yea that's a good way to put it Plush. In general, i'd say you do want to stick to the traditional power running that made UW great to begin with but you have to adapt and add things. I guess spitballing here I know many are blasting the lack of creativity as a big issue (I agree) but really they've gone to a ton of shotgun, spread, pistol type stuff which frankly is new to us. So I guess you could say they are trying new things in a way. To me, the issue is how much everything is telegraphed. Things like more options out of the same sets, RPOs, etc. Play Action!!! Passing on 1st down. Passing out of under center, not just shotgun. Don't have your personnel be a huge giveaway in regards to run/pass. Much of the pre snap motioning and shifts we used to do are gone. Standard play action pass to the TE is gone. Think of the Chiefs offense last night with the limited QB but think of all the motions and misdirections.

Chryst turned down U of Texas too. Yes Rudolph is the OC and OL coach. They do not give a clear answer as to who is calling the plays. My best guess is that it's Rudolph with of course heavy input from PC. PC was one of the best play callers for years, if he's not doing it all himself after several years of offensive stagnation now he should take it back over. If he is calling, well then he needs to re-evaluate what he's doing.

With how good we are we're never big dogs. Top of my head I think they were 7 pts dogs to LSU, probably the 2nd biggest dog they've been in recent years after Bama and last weekend (ignoring 2018 in my commentary again, blacking out that year haha). And being that Miami was in their home stadium I'd guess about the same. I might be able to find. USC I'd guess by just a few points. Home games vs OSU in recent years have been pickems and within 3 pts one way or the other. We were faves in the 59-0 game and under 7 pt dogs in the last title game. ETA: My first find is that we were -12.5 dogs to LSU at Lambeau. Also big dogs of course to them in Houston when we almost won. My memory thinks 12.5 is wrong in that game though, gonna try to find a 2nd source later. That's best I can find on that. Beating LSU is definitely on par with beating OSU imo. Did find that you were right that we were 6ish faves at Mia, bit surprised there being a home game for them and all. Can't find a USC one that lists it, but looking back on it good chance we're a slight fave there too. Only 3.5 dogs to OSU in the 2017 title game. I guess pig pic, are we going to be all mad that we're doing so well that we're favored against these big profile teams even in their backyards? Or in general that we're almost never more than a TD dog to anyone? Those are good things. ETA: Found USC in Phil Steele's, UW was 3 pt dog. It also verified the LSU line. Few others in recent years they won as dogs too, at MSU and a few others. Thing I noticed in his is that over the last 10 years ATS as dogs they've covered the vast majority of game. That doesn't mean they won the game though.