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tmwiese55

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Everything posted by tmwiese55

  1. tmwiese55
    True. Besides Mahomes, another obvious example is Favre/Rodgers. JAbronis like us on a computer back then could've been saying the same thing as we are now in the 'yea I doubt Rudolph is really any good'. Turns out the coaches knew and were correct. We'll see of course, but yea Pitt's history seems to lean towards giving them the benefit of the doubt. To your jobs on the line comment, generally you're correct. I know ESPN will start pumping the "will Tomlin be fired" hot takes to get attention and clicks but really this guy should be as stable as they come with his history there.
  2. tmwiese55
    Just read the article on it. Yea this seems like he's caught dead to rights and is done. As he should be, I just don't get what's wrong with these people to do stuff like this. It really shouldn't be that difficult to pick up women when you have 50 mil. Someone else mentioned the trade deadline and if that was known or rumored then as a factor. Obviously I have no idea, but too bad LAD didn't make the mistake of trading for him. Could really use some breaks to start going against them to bring them down to earth. Then again, it would've helped division rival Pitt so...
  3. tmwiese55
    What was it Sunday that Keston got a hit but then was pinch ran for. Based off that I thought there might still be a couple more days. Thursday's starter is lefty so that was my idea for when we might see him. Plus with Spanger having a good night last night so maybe feel comfortable pushing it a bit. I brought it up yesterday too but maybe SPangenberger gets some legit pt at SS once Huira is back.
  4. tmwiese55
    I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen. Castillo's spot in the Reds rotation was last night, and they started Kevin Gausman instead. It would suck if the Reds skipped Castillo's start against the Cubs, only to start him against the Brewers. Yes, this type of stuff happens all the time every year. Maybe we'll get unlucky and a scenario just pointed out happens or we could get lucky. But this stuff happens every year and the discussion about whether MLB would frown on it happens every year. It's been going on forever and in pretty much every sport. If we wanna play conspiracy theories at all, the Reds have had a beef with the Cards and Cubs in recent years but really nothing with us. Plus our connection to the pitching coach. So hey, if they're gonna play favorites at all you'd think they'd rather us win than the Cards/Cubs. That said, I don't believe that at all. It would come down to their people's data or opinions on their own pitchers innings/limits and that's it.
  5. tmwiese55
    Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.
  6. tmwiese55
    Yea I generally agree, that's basically what I was getting at as well. I suppose it's possible they are confident that Rudolph is that guy, granted I haven't seen him since college but I wouldn't be too confident in him. Remember 2-3 years ago when it was out there that Ben was contemplating retirement already back then? Have to think he's not long for this and could just take his money and go home right now. So from afar I wouldn't be planning on running it back with him a few more times, especially with this injury. But who knows maybe they've talked about all this and he's confirmed he's in for at least a couple more years.
  7. tmwiese55
    My gut was why would Pit make this trade in a year they're going to lose. Before Ben's injury, sure, you're trying to win it all. Now, you're likely in rebuild mode and this is like your first crack at a top 10 pick in forever since Pit is always good (note, I didn't go and double check if there was a fluke year they got a top-ish pick). This could've been similar to the Manning/Luck situation where you luck into a QB right away to replace your legend. Plus, there is at least two legit top QB prospects in Tua and the Oregon QB.
  8. tmwiese55
    Former Brewers great Jose Valentin on there as well. Still can't believe the Valentin, Vaughn, Jaha, Nilson era didn't get better results haha. Also, note on that HR yesterday was the lacking of the call by Coshun. For the hate BA gets I'm pretty sure he'd been able to recognize off the bat what was happening there and had a better call.
  9. tmwiese55
    Kinda surprising looking at Spangenbergs stats that he's only at 254/275 with MIL this year. Just seeeems he's been doing much better than that. Just ran through and looks like he played 16 games at SS in AAA this year and has gotten in two this year as SS in MLB. Bringing it up in regards to once Hiura is back if he'll get some starts at SS over Arcia. based on those numbers maybe not so much
  10. tmwiese55
    Still, there is a value in trying to kind or reign in a clearly enthusiastic fan into reality a bit. He clearly cares, follows a lot, and knows a lot of baseball stuff. So kind of just trying to point in the right direction a bit. But yea maybe it's just not worth it. Biggest 'gotcha' potentially looking me in the face on stuff I said is IDK 8ish games ago saying how it's almost impossible to catch STL for the division. Basically the far fetched week happened exactly as we needed getting the 6-1 week (though I'd have thought sweeping the Cards would be crucial in it,but we got the extra in MIA) to now actually put this possibility into play. at least a 5-2 week here and it's wide open.
  11. tmwiese55
    haha guy puts up a 2.00 ERA over 3 months throwing 97-100. yea no way I was high on him, knew the whole time he was a bum. Guy has one dominant outing in AAA, he's figured it out and ready to dominate if you don't see it you're ignorant!!!! haha Just jiving there of course. You're last post is much more realistic on acknowledging the range of possibilities with Black as opposed to a few post earlier when it was "definitely". Think that's what most folks are getting at, just trimming the small sample overreactions and absolutisms. love the energy and positivity, hopefully they keep winning and you can rub it in all our faces how you were right on your current view.
  12. tmwiese55
    I can crush all your silly incorrect assertions, except for the ones I’ve already admitted I was wrong on. Aces, Nelson are 2 of those. Crush me on what? essentially the only thing you've been right about is a hot streak in September helped by an improved bullpen (in spite of being wrong about several of the bullpen guys that would do it, but others stepped up as well to balance). And that Hiura would be good at hitting, big shocker there. But this after 2-3 weeks earlier saying the team and pitching staff, organizational depth, roster construction, etc was so bad that everyone should be fired and we need a new owner. Sooo, you took both sides of it, tough not to be right then.
  13. tmwiese55
    I said what would you have said about him in mid June last year as he was raking up an upper 1 to low 2s ERA? Not what in the preseason this year after he flopped 2nd half last year. That was the point, guys can get hot for a bit and come back to earth really quickly. Thus, why one should go nuts over a 30 year old who's done nothing and been hurt a ton having a good 10 game stretch.
  14. tmwiese55
    Black has way way way way better stuff than the 2 mental midgets that you just mentioned. Command. It’s that simple. Right? Go take a look at what Barnes did through around mid June last year and let me know how many years and how long of an extension you'd have given him? Simple, obvious, this guy had figured it out. He also throws 99 with a big slider, I'd pretty confidently say his slider bites more than Blacks.
  15. tmwiese55
    JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now
  16. tmwiese55
    Good summary by Plush. I'd probably give Army a bit more credit as they did finish 11-2 and ranked last year. Mostly semantics though as I agree with your main points. Note, you mistyped UCF when you meant South Florida. Generally I'd agree with your point that they're on the same tier as Army of competent/good mid majors rather than cupcake pushovers like Central Michigan. Mostly was just adding to it at there is some reasons behind this for Mich too. They've changed their offense this year trying to go to more RPO and spread styles rather than traditional I power type ball the last few years. So their O Line is recruited to be maulers but now playing more finesse along with just generally learning new things for everyone. So, their might be some legit Xs and Os stuff with them beyond your normal "they just didn't try or come prepared for an easy game" type stuff that happens lots with teams. Which serves as an eye opener for them to kick the crap out of someone else the next week or in the 2nd half of a game. So, maybe it's a good thing to be catching Mich this early. But, the bye week might've given them time to work out some kinks too. Plus, their D is still really darn good no matter so this should be a battle to the end.
  17. tmwiese55
    Kwik Trip had something similar for today trying to give out free tickets
  18. tmwiese55
    My complaint with WAR over the years is the name leads to people taking it too particularly regarding Wins and as if you can just plug joe schmo in as replacement player, basically taking it too literally. I think a term like Player Efficiency Rating like in the NBA or something similar would be a bit better.
  19. tmwiese55
    shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.
  20. tmwiese55
    Exactly, and that's why getting worked up about these projections is pointless. It's baseball and even games among the best teams vs worst aren't all that far beyond 50/50 on a game by game small sample basis.
  21. tmwiese55
    Yep, obviously yesterday's result is not ideal, but the command of his pitches was crap. He couldn't get his breaking ball over, and when you are forced to groove a FB, it doesn't matter how fast it is. I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a solid late inning pen option. I don't think anyone is calling him a future closer quite yet, though. Well I bet someone is saying it...haha
  22. tmwiese55
    And there is probably several people back then proclaiming how dumb they were because MKE won 96 games last year and are only better now with Moose/Grandal!!! It's obvious and common sense!!!
  23. tmwiese55
    Soooo, every team in the history of baseball playing for the playoffs against bad teams always wins like 75% of their games? No, crap happens all the time. I mean, SD just took two from Cubs and Col beat STL last week too, I think 2/3. It happens in baseball every year. I own a Marlins hat because in 08 they knocked off the Mets (I think Mets anyway) which allowed us in the playoffs. Last year the Cubs wen 2-2 vs Pit in the last week. In general, I think people get too worked up on these things in thinking they're even trying to claim to be 100% accurate. They're just providing one data point to go off and I'm sure fully acknowledge this is just a 'best guess' that can vary greatly due to all kind of factors you guys are easily pointing out. 15 years ago stuff like this didn't exist, now it does and provides more info than there was previously. That's it. That said, it seems like this fangraphs formula is worse than say 538.
  24. tmwiese55
    If you're paying in the same 30-35/year type amount he'd get as a FA then there is really no rush to do it with 3 years left. If you get a legit team friendly discount, then sure you should be talking and can find a way. Think it's really that simple to me.
  25. tmwiese55
    Army is not a cupcake team like who the Badgers played. Last week I saw some tweets that had advanced line at Mich -1.5 but now when everyone opened it's UW 3ish. Tells me the sharps pounded WI when it opened. This might also mean they're trying to get money in on Mich to balance or just that they think UW will win so want money on Mich. I'm hoping it doesn't get to 3.5 before I can get down to bet on it. I really don't have a strong feeling on it but would just do the homer pick for the fun.
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