tmwiese55

Have seen the recent talking point is how deaths haven't spiked yet. I think I said a few pages back too which we're all hoping holds true for a number of reasons such as old people better protected now, earlier testing to catch cases, finding more mild cases, better treatment, etc. There is a lot of reasons this should not go up near the rates of before. But, with the hospitalizations going up in many places you'd think some increase comes soon. Hopefully it's not drastic though. If it is I'm sure everyone pushing that talking point now will quickly acknowledge. but it did lead me down a hole trying to find EU comps on deaths per day now and I couldn't find it. As opposed to the New Cases graphs of EU vs USA that have been everywhere lately, so it was kind of frustrating and I thought odd so it made me curious if something was up trying to make us look bad. So I just grabbed France/Germany as bigger wealthier countries and kind of the flagships of Europe. France had 18 deaths on the 3rd. they're roughly 5x smaller than us so equivalent of 100 here. Germany had 9 on the 3rd, they're roughly 4x smaller, so equivalent of 36. I did not look at any other countries so I did not cherry pick good numbers (or bad, IDK how they comp to other europe countries). USA had 660 on the 3rd. So keep that in mind if/when you hear this narrative pushed this week. The narrative seems to essentially be trying to normalize setting a low bar and normalizing our comparatively high deaths. Of course one would think this continues to widen with how many more new cases we're getting than EU. If someone has whole EU graph or numbers feel free to add, I could not find it.

I want to say as of like 3ish days ago something like 16 states had been showing an increase in week over week hospitalizations, and the 3-4 main talked about hotspots were significant percents. I'd guess % of positive cases that end in hospitalizations are lower now though, but I've never seen that stat used anywhere. It's just logical they'd be finding way more mild cases now than 2-3 months ago. I'd guess that's the one big positive to hope for right now though is that not nearly as many deaths come from this new surge due to that point. Each day that goes by makes me less optimistic though. And still at the numbers of infections going on it still seems the total number will be bad. As in, even if the %s are way better than the initial run (due to finding more mild cases and likely that we're protecting older people better now) at these total numbers (and likely more exponential growth coming) there will still be large total numbers involved to burden some medical systems and still a large number of deaths that most people aren't comfortable with seeing.

It's really hard to believe after this long and these numbers (considering all the precautions we've done, think what it would be without) that so many people are still so dug in on it being overblown media hype bs. This viewpoint is continued to be proven wrong every step of the way going back to February and it still continues on. I guess nothing should surprise anymore, but at some point you'd think people would accept it was way more than they thought it would be and just listen to take it serious. I'd even concede they're generally right in the view how negative headlines get clicks and that's overdone, but that by no means makes this not a hugely serious situation. Spitballing, let's say this is an 8 on a scale of 10 for level of badness (which is pretty high of course). Just because "the media" makes it out to be a 9 instead does not mean 8 still isn't a big deal.

Current basic sitcoms that could fill that void for you would be Goldbergs, Blackish, and Brooklyn 99.

I really think people should look into what herd immunity really means and what that would entail. I know the phrase is out there a ton at this point, but I mean really dig into a bit more and the numbers on it and what that would entail (and in a country without universal healthcare). I doubt too many people would be pushing it the way they are then. And if folks have and still think that's a good route, well that's your opinion and you're free to it, but it sure seems too harsh (and risky) of a route for me and I'd think the vast majority of the population. Just saying if you haven't, to really learn about it before pushing it.

Another discussion point on it will be the universal medicine aspects of these other countries vs USA. I've seen some things on it but really haven't dug into much to really say anything. But it will be something to look at later on when we can do some hindsight 20/20. One thing glossed over when so many folks were pushing the Sweden approach was that Sweden has universal medicine. So, in theory, you don't have the disadvantaged put at a bigger risk and/or someone risking massive debt if they get it.

For sure there is nuance on it. But there's plenty of graphs out there to find and see what you think. And when I'm using the phrase "Europe" it's data on the whole EU as one unit. Obviously a bit more complex than us counting all states together, but it's best we can do and somewhat similar size comp. Some graphs will also include other countries in too like Canada, Japan, Korea, etc but that seems like cherry picking a bit. But regardless, it seems to show there is stuff that can be done that works much better than what we've done.

Sure seems the fixes Europe did are working as of now. I guess we'll see what happens when they re-open more, but seems a big stretch to just put up our arms and give up when so many other countries are not having the problem we're having.

Popped in my head with how the Brewers have finally refunded money. I've had flights, hotels, sport tickets all refunded now. Only one thing left for a comedy show in Madison through ticketmaster. Supposed to be on May 1 but it was cancelled mid March. The process has been nothing initially while they sorted it out, perfectly fine by me, it's a weird time. By mid May they opened to requesting the refund and said within 30 days. That's obviously passed now, I now did my first nagging and they asked all the details. But responded they're still waiting on it from the venue so keep waiting. IDK, seems the multi billion dollar company should float this not individuals after almost 4 months. And I do see how a small venue in Madison might never pay them back as they might be totally broke now or go bankrupt, but you'd think Ticketmaster would have insurance on this kind of thing. It's the only thing I have left dangling, 6 tickets so it does add up a bit to around $500.

Not quite. I said trends, so I meant right now. Your testing point US vs EU has been debunked. Quick summary from roughly a week ago. EU has roughly 100 mil more people than USA. EU/USA are testing basically the same number of people per million. We have been getting something like 8x as many new cases (per million, I think). And it sure seems the last week would've widened this gap even more. I can't get a way around this other than whatever they've been doing seems a heck of a lot better than what we've been doing. Also, I can't get my head around the argument that dong something for the greater community good is also selfish because greater good also benefits you. I guess there is a logic to it, but it just seems a really odd argument to make. Especially when in direct comparison to the other option in this case.

For the unevenness stuff you can chalk that up to the network messing with them. They were in a constant battle against cancellation and the network pushing out showrunners and such and trying to change the show to get better ratings. Wonder how much better it would've been if they just left them alone.

I'd agree not enough info yet to know much for sure. But to the why now question? Because of exponential growth and that they keep opening more and more and people get looser and looser. So not so much just two weeks after someone gets it, but then the 2-4 people they infect who infect 2-4 more and so and so and so on. That takes time to build up. As you just said though, spikes were always gonna happen. When you identify some like it seems in a few states, well then address it like they seem to be doing. Still holding out hope here that this data is still early enough and levels off but as days go by I'm getting less optimistic on that. Our trends and comps to Europe look so much worse though, no way around that data I can come up with.

Compliments on the phrasing here in the first paragraph. Much better than the shouting and acting like those people were deliberately trying to harm people. People can just be wrong and make incorrect decisions, especially in an unprecedented situation trying to juggle many issues at once like in this case, without being intentionally harmful.

CBS has MKE 20th in power rankings. I'm very optimistic they'll be better than that.

I haven't seen the details mentioned yet on testing going forward. I'm sure it's out there but kind of surprising it hasn't been really pushed to the media. One would think they'd be tested daily or maybe every 2-3 days. top of my head I want to say NBA is doing every other day, or at least had that initially planned. Not sure if anything has changed.

Good point snapper, I did not think of geography in regards to schedule. Makes sense. I guess it seems kind of more helpful to the Central teams since teams are so close together. As others have said the Wests are really spread and Easts go up and down the coasts.

Agree. It's probably some here and there but one would guess it's not a huge part of it. And seems to me the right way to count it imo as it takes out gray areas. Assuming we're interpreting OP correctly here anyway.

Seems not so much that it's fudging. But that they came in for something else, and since everyone is tested now they find out they have it. That's the way I interpret what he posted anyway. I mean you can't not count it.

Would've thought the priority would be getting one series vs every league team before interleague. So I was surprised by that, but they're making the best of it. I guess it's kind of good for us with the AL Central being bad as well, sure the Sox should be improved a bit but Cleveland should have come down a little.

If I was a pitcher who didn't need the money, I think I'd seriously consider sitting the year and not risking injury. Heck, even if I did need the money due to not getting my big payday yet, I'd consider not risking the injury this year. I think it's been agreed that service time moves forward one year regardless, so you're one year closer to FA without risking a major arm injury. Of course easy for me to say, I'm sure they have competitiveness that factors in greatly. Guess I'm just saying I totally get how this might not make sense for pitchers.

Same info my friend has said on people not coming in (no info on ICU numbers). Basically, it was super slow during April to mid May for emergency heart issues. Like why would heart issues stop? They didn't really know why and best guess they could come up with is what you said in that people didn't come in and powered through some things (or passed at home) and subsequently it's now been really busy in the last few weeks (combined with planned procedures that were delayed). With the guess being what you said, things that have been building up due to not coming in are now hitting the wall. Again, they don't really know, it's pure speculation and best guess.

I mean, that's the point isn't it? That it isn't right and they were forced to do it by the situation and lack of supplies. Said some would go up to a week with 1 mask. Maybe their management were being overly worried on it though, or maybe since this group doesn't deal with covid patients they got the short end of the stick on priority, idk.

Just have to believe Giannis would want nothing to do with Kidd after seeing how a real coach operates. He has to see that. Doesn't mean he doesn't like him as a dude, but to tie your late 20s prime to him would be foolish. Also, I have no idea how Kidd continues to fly under the radar in the current me too type climate. You'd think someone in NY media would have a blast blowing up that story.

Good post Chorizo. I saw some yesterday where some of these spots do show other trends to show its more than "we're testing more" where things like hospitalization and such are more, there was one other factor I'm forgetting. But like you said, at this point I don't think it's freakout stage or anything, watch it closely and keep getting data and maybe specific spots need to clamp down a bit more. But seems early right now to make too much of it yet. One I've watched for a while is the active cases number/trend, after peaking and starting to dip that has been rising again. Overall not good sign, but again we are going to have spikes/blips or whatever especially since so much has reopened. Hopefully the next week or two the concerning numbers we've all been seeing pushed out there lately start to turn in a good way. If not, yea maybe some tweaks needs to be put in. For masks discussion yesterday I did get an update and some clarification. About a week ago they were told they can ease up and not push it anymore. It's still not back to the old days of one per case but having to use for days isn't needed anymore. And yea the push before would be to keep using with some spatters of blood or whatever fluids, but if it was legit "wet" you could get a new one. Also had to go to sign out process for a while on it. Also to note, these are surgical masks not N95, this group only needs N95 if they haven't been able to covid test someone first, which is basically only in true emergency situations.

To some of the talk on lack of people listening and what you're seeing. I'd generally agree with the sentiments of once you get out of the cities it just goes way down but as someone said it's anecdotal. What about a phraising like this that might make sense from what you're all describing?: When you see people out and about being social they're generally not adhering, but it still seems lots of people are staying home and taking it seriously. I don't know if that's true or anything, I guess I kind of think it is but am by no means adamant on any take on it as I'm not out enough to really gather an opinion.