MrTPlush

I am not sure where they ranked overall last year statistically as starters, but while the players sucked at face value some had really low ERAs to help us way more than you would have expected. Miley was a 2.67 ERA on the year Gonzalez gave us 2.13 ERA in a short period Chacin a 3.50 ERA on the year Even the guys people hated (Guerra/Anderson) floated around 4.00 ERAs I know I expected some more stability and more than one guy throwing throwing 175+ innings, but not sure I was expecting better results overall because last year they really weren't that bad if I recall. EDIT: Found the stats. We were 11th in baseball by starter ERA and had the 4th most quality starts. That isn't the easiest to improve on.

20/20? Nah, not really. You act like no one was calling for the bullpen to suck or be simply average. It was pretty predictable. You also act like the rotation failing was shocking. Not really, when you make your entire rotation that are high risk and not consistent performers majority failure is almost expected. What is the success rate of prospects? How about in the rotation? 33%, that makes it easy. So right off the bat we have 2/5 of our rotation failing. How about middle of the road pitchers like Davies/Chacin? You are probably good for one of those types to disappoint. Suddenly the majority of the rotation is likely to bomb...which it did. It was predictable and it happened. Obviously we could have hoped Chacin had another strong year, Davies got healthy, our three prospects do amazing...but is that realistic? Not even remotely close. There was too much risk in that rotation and little ceiling to be a likely successful unit. And the bullpen...it simply lost so much talent/results that it had last year with no reinforcements to help out. Worst of all there wasn't the depth for when that predictable rotation failure/injury happened. You also seem to infer the only way for those three guys to get their chance at the rotation was to start there, completely false. As someone mentioned Houser was way down that depth chart and has an extended look to prove himself. Starting them all in the rotation was recklessly risky...and it crashed. And like I said maybe Stearns knew that and wanted to roll the dice and aim higher by taking a step back this year for the long run. Not saying Burnes/Peralta can't contribute in the future. That being said these results aren't even remotely shocking and almost expected.

I think that was mostly just some goofy "get excited Yount helped build this palace" kind of thing. They did the angled walls in CF for him and while I wouldn't recall personally something tells me he also was in charge of the corner outfield dimensions too and where Miller Park gets 99% of it's triples. A big misconception about Miller Park is the dimensions are pathetic, but they actually aren't outside of the gaps which I think tend to be a little shorter than average (CF is pretty average). Directly to the poles though...second deepest in baseball at 345 feet. Only the Cubs at 355 feet have deeper corners than us. Most teams in baseball are 10-15 feet shallower...some even more than that. So that HR landing zone in RF actually isn't as shallow as it is made out to be. Before they installed that area we had a RF corner depth of about 360 feet (I couldn't find the exact number) which would have been deepest in baseball and way farther than most.

This season is ending up exactly how it was constructed, it is not shocking in the least. David Stearns created a rotation that was destined to be a massive failure: 1) Jhoulys Chacin - Little consistency over his career 2) Freddy Peralta - Shaky at best as a starter last year, zero track record 3) Corbin Burnes - Impressive as a *reliever*, no experience starting at the MLB level, zero track record 4) Brandon Woodruff - Horrid as a starter (only 4 starts last year), but impressive in relief, zero track record 5) Zach Davies - Was horrible/injured in 2018, some track record, however really low ceiling. 6) Chase Anderson - Okay, we had a decent #6 starter waiting in the wings 7) Adrian Houser...going into the season not a great #7 guy Then you move onto the bullpen. Right off the bat we were losing three MAJOR arms from our run. Knebel to injury and Burnes/Woodruff to the rotation. Then Jeffress was due for obvious regression after an insane season he could never repeat. The writing was on the wall the bullpen was about to fall off a cliff because little was done to replace all the talent leaving it. Of course you could add to it the fact they also lost their pitching coach...but personally I am not sure the effects that had. There you have it, a pathetically constructed pitching staff. Stearns didn't have the guts to make a big move anywhere along the line. He also didn't have the guts to not stick every single one of those young starters into the rotation immediately, which he most surely didn't have to do to give them all a chance this year as injuries/failure happen to open up an opportunity. He also could have traded one and sold high so to speak, but he kept them all to roll the dice. Maybe Stearns didn't like this years team, maybe he planned it to be a rebuilding year all along. Really he made some zero risk moves in Moose/Grandal and then rolled the dice magic would happen in the pitching staff. It was a flailing attempt at trying to be a WS contender. It was not a very impressive showing by Stearns, hopefully it was apart of the plan for the next few years...but not like 2020/2021 is a ton more optimistic.

I am assigning nothing to Cain personally. I am saying though is if one personally thinks Cain is washed up at this point replacing him is effortless offensively. It is almost impossible to do worse. I am just saying for Mr '92's sake he isn't that crazy if he 100% is in belief Cain is a goner offensively because a .675 OPS is pretty horrendous for an OFer. And I am definitely NOT advocating Tyrone Taylor in any form.

He was a 2.0 WAR guy according to bWAR...do we have to use Fangraphs in such an exercise? Is there a proper WAR to use over another for the $8mil rule? Honestly asking...I don't know. Does the $8mil number come from Fangraphs? Because according to bWAR Perez has been worth $16mil, $8mil, and $8mil the previous three years.

Come on. Tyrone Taylor? I mean Lorenzo Cain is notably below a .700 OPS...speaking just offensively that is pretty easy to outdo. So if you were really confident Cain is over the hill not coming back replacing him offensively would be a job a blind squirrel could accomplish. Now if we truly believe Lorenzo Cain is a 2 WAR player solely on defense this year then that is a bit harder to replace. Which personally once you get that bad on offense I am not sure a 2 WAR blackhole is as good as a 2 WAR player who gets half that from both offense/defense. Not sure my total opinion on that, but I do start to question the value of a defense only player when comparing to an average at everything player.

Well, obviously, they have to. They don't just toss dollar amounts into a BINGO machine and pick one out. But as another poster said the $8mil WAR that is commonly used is ridiculous. Not to mention another dozen odd things go into valuing a player that you just simply can't quantify with stats. Merchandise sales they will bring in, value of them after they retire if a major contract. Some teams value certain things over other things. I mean the amount of guys who go in and get what WAR says they should is a rarity. It would be hard to really figure out what players actually seem to get per WAR...because sometimes guys get big contracts for consistency, versatility, just came off a huge year, among other things where taking his previous 3 year average wouldn't exactly be useful and predictive WAR formulas are so flawed you can't really use that either. Like I said before going off WAR Perez has been a $10mil a year player recently. The only person on this planet who thinks Perez is that valuable is Clancy (seriously, he once proposed a contract with similar yearly rates). If I was throwing darts at a wall I would say the actual value for 1 WAR is probably in the neighborhood of $4mil-$5mil (in a very general sense). That seems to be more in line with what guys achieve. That seems like a sweet spot for your typical player in the 2-3 WAR range. 4-5 WAR players probably overshoot that and <2 WAR players probably undershoot that a bit.

No, that is simply wrong. You cannot bunch up deals and say they committed 140mil for all that. They committed $40mil for a portion and then $100mil for a different portion. I don't get the fascination with trying to doll up bad contracts on aging players. Just because we made a killing on one deal doesn't mean that production can be apart of the bad deal we made later. They should have made a massive killing and then sent Braun on his way. And really the Braun contract hasn't ended that badly it seems...not good...we shouldn't have done it, but he has stayed relevant for the most part when it comes to production. But lets not try to make it what it isn't. Heck at this rate he could probably get his option picked up if he can be good next year and find a way to play passable at 1B! Probably not getting it picked up as an OFer though.

Well going by WAR money values Mike Trout should be paid $65mil or so and Heran Perez was worth almost $30mil the last three years. Yah, that sounds kinda silly doesn't it? WAR money values just seem like a way to rationalize an overpaid veteran.

Sure, as long as he is providing defense he isn't a horrid player to have. Problem is we also have a player like that at SS and potentially C again if Grandal leaves. I think it is a problem when you have 3+ "well he has good defense at least" players. That's what really makes an offense crap real quick.

Oh sure, many. I mean Braun is still rocking it even with a history of being crippled with injuries. Given he has never fallen off a cliff statistically like Cain has...but thus he still hits well for 35. That being said many get into their 30s and just lose it, often. Not saying Cain can't rebound or even that I would be shocked...but teams aren't going out and investing $51mil to find out. The only reason we are optimistic as fans is because he is stuck on our team. If you went and asked fans of other teams what they thought of Cain at 3/$51mil they would tell you to take a hike in a flurry of laughter. If Cain was on another team not a single person would be jumping to propose a trade taking on Cain and his entire contract...maybe a few people, but I think you get the point.

I said Lorenzo Cain is having a Billy Hamilton esque season. All defense, zero offense...not really debatable. Cain has a 74 OPS+ this year...before this year Hamilton put up 77/66/69. It isn't all that crazy different. And while, yes, you can mention his past stats...however once you are in your mid 30s past production isn't the greatest predictor nor is falling off a cliff surprising. I don't know how Cain will be next year or the years after....he could definitely rebound to some degree, idk. Point is if he hit FA after the year I don't think he would command anything close to 3/$51mil we owe him. Teams don't take $51mil gambles on 34 year old rebounds. If someone really believed in a rebound I am guessing he would be valued at 2/$30mil or so, dream scenario. That is still a solid $20mil dead money. I can't imagine how he would fare better than that in a market that currently hates players of his age.

At least the juiced ball gave Arcia a big jump in his stats too, a .666 OPS now instead of last years .576! WOOO! At least he is better than Greinke's career OPS...though only slightly (.599 for Greinke). It is really sad year after year we cannot find something better. The minors are a dead zone too...the best option down there is likely 3+ years away and by then may be washed up.

Miller Park being a launching pad is a myth: Left is HR Rank / Right is Runs Rank 2019 - 16th 15th 2018 - 10th 15th 2017 - 12th 8th 2016 - 9th 17th 2015 - 1st 7th 2014 - 9th 15th 2013 - 5th 5th 2012 - 1st 7th 2011 - 11th 10th 2010 - 6th 15th 2009 - 10th 27th 2008 - 22nd 22nd 2007 - 10th 15th 2006 - 14th 15th 2005 - 10th 16th 2004 - 18th 1st 2003 - 4th 11th 2002 - 20th 22nd 2001 - 8th 14th ---That is an average of 10th in baseball. That simply is not plus-plus...it is above average. ---I decided to also do runs scored and that came to 13.5th in baseball. This right here...is average. Miller Park is not the launching pad nor is it the hitters park it is made out to be...this is a myth likely supported by park dimensions and a few years where it is touted every night because we have a team loaded with HR hitters.

SHIfT!!! Gets moose every time.

Alright here comes Moose for the lead.

Suddenly life, all we needed!!!

You mean he being gone isn’t the reason 12+ suck?! Darn!!

Wins like that are rarely momentum builders.

If you're going to throw out your back you might as well do it hitting a HR. Braun oblique problems solved.

Yeah it's rough. Villar actually possess a skillset we kind of lack this year. Problem is, he was in CC's doghouse, wasn't going to come out, so dealing him at that point was ideal. Too bad the guy we traded him for was a 100% complete non factor. Yah, if they were done with him...fine, I guess. But Schoop? Man that was pretty strange from the start. I mean sadly at this point Villar would have been better than Arcia at SS.

Saw Villar hit his 16th homer today...pretty horrendous trade. Even after defense he is a pretty darn solid player repping a 2.5 bWAR and 2.6 fWAR. Pretty annoying considering we traded him for a player who didn’t make sense for two months and he absolutely sucked.

Definitely has kept the newer stance vs. the old one.. Doesn’t stick the bat towards the pitcher etc. I think he has changed it a touch from the original change though.

What do you mean wrong activity AGAIN? What has he done that's wrong? Based on the comments by the school while they were reviewing his expulsion and now after I get the sense that they still feel he did something against their rules/conduct/ethics policy in some way. While reviewing they said, "Generally speaking, it’s important to note that the University of Wisconsin System’s code of student conduct is separate from criminal law and that students may be held responsible for violations of the code regardless of whether those violations are also criminal." And said this today, "As a result of this review, sanctions for Quintez Cephus have been reduced and his expulsion lifted. There were findings of responsibility of the student non-academic misconduct code that were upheld." So I take that as something was still "wrong" in their eyes as they didn't exactly wipe his record clean. I don't know what and I really don't care to read what is likely a lengthy code of conduct to figure it out. That being said Cephus has no choice but to attend UW and join the UW football team as he cannot go anywhere else and be eligible this year to play. From my understanding that is due to academic reasons.