QuevedosTongue
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Everything posted by QuevedosTongue
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Shelby Miller to the Arizona Diamondbacks
QuevedosTongue replied to Lee16's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
When all is said and done in Arizona, the legacy of Dave Stewart as a GM will be about how he killed the future of the team. If things pan out and they become a playoff contender for the next 5 years it may be muted some, but as this team ages and gets worse, they will be devoid of assets needed to drive improvement. Frankly, in 5 years they will likely look like the 2015 Brewers. Of course, if they win a WS in that time Stewart will be hailed as a genius. -
David Stearns wants to acquire a CF
QuevedosTongue replied to MrTPlush's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I would think part of the reason Stearns would want a "true" CF is that playing Santana out of position probably doesn't give him his best chance to be successful. If he's a good corner and is comfortable there, that's where he should play, unless it's spot duty as he did last season. And I don't get the angst about what Stearns might give up for said CF, he really doesn't have to give up anything except money and a roster spot. Regarding the brief discussion about playing guys out of position (Braun at 3B, Santana in CF), I think the two World Series teams showed that the ability to turn batted balls into outs is really important. Of the 10 playoff teams, only 2 (Pitt, Yankees) were below #16 in defensive efficiency. The 2015 Brewers were 25th. Clearly Stearns thinks the quickest way to improve the team is to improve the defense. -
Nothing is going to happen to Chapman resulting from this unless some additional evidence pops up. It was investigated, there was apparently contradictory information, so it was dropped. After that, there's really no way MLB can do anything about whatever happened (if anything actually did). If he continues to pitch well, this will be virtually a non-issue come the end of July.
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While I won't argue with the offensive issues that have been discussed, I think their offense is workable. They don't have enough shooters, but on nights they move the ball they make it work. Their defense generally sucks, though. They constantly let guys into the lane to score or kick to shooters. They are last or near last in Opponents FT Attempts, Defensive Points per Shot, and Adjusted Defensive FG Percentage. They've been better at times, in some games much better, this season, but they are generally still a poor defensive team and they have no chance to sniff the playoffs if they don't get better there.
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I don't see any upside to dealing Lind to the Mariners, other than dumping his moderate salary. I'd be interested in Alex Jackson, but he's the only one. And I wouldn't be thrilled with a straight Lind for Jackson deal. The M's have virtually no young talent that is controllable/not arbitration eligible and available.
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The reason that other major sports have salary limitations that are stronger than MLB (MLB has restrictions, they just don't seem to matter with the amount of money coming in) is because the players union in MLB is much stronger than in the other sports. That has been true for years and is still true. If you're thinking philosophically, yes the contracts being given out now are ridiculous. People who contribute very little of value to other people around the world are being paid exorbitant sums of money because they can hit or throw a baseball. Sounds crazy. But, in an economic sense, these numbers aren't crazy, they're just a by product of the regional TV money now flowing into the game. When the Brewers do a new deal, it will increase substantially, but until then they are on the poor end. What is the Brewers TV deal? Information is unclear on that. They are in one of the smallest TV markets in MLB, so they are obviously on the low end. Based on a few things I've seen, it's somewhere in the $15 million to $30 million per year range, due to expire after the 2019 season. Contrast that with the Diamondbacks deal signed this year, guaranteeing Arizona "north of $1.5 million" over 20 years. So, they are guaranteed $75 million per season and it's likely they get some percentage of revenues each year once a certain threshold is reached. Given the amount of money being thrown around, I would say that national revenues are picking up as well. All this will mean extra money in the Brewers coffers as well. Attanasio is smartly not going to spend it right now, but hopefully he will be willing to pick up the tab when the team needs it a couple years down the road. Incidentally, Braun's contract is quickly becoming irrelevant long-term. In an industry flush with cash his 2016 salary ($19 million) currently ranks in the mid-30s and will not even be in the top 40 by the time the next season starts. I think it's likely the Brewers go into the 2017 season with no player making salary ranked in the top 65 salaries in baseball. So, while Braun's deal is a sunk cost and certainly is money that can't be spent elsewhere, it is no longer the albatross that some make it out to be.
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The guys at the low minor league levels do what they are told. I'm more concerned with convincing the players that are on the 40-man or at least at the "spring training invite" level. I don't think it would be that easy with them and very few (if any) ML pitching staffs are made up of guys that predominantly came through the parent club system. So, the big job would be convincing players that came over in trades or potential FAs that it made sense. Fringe guys wouldn't matter, because they would likely just be happy to have a job. But teams don't win with a bunch of fringe guys.
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Brewers I believe will not be traded....
QuevedosTongue replied to daintrain28's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nothing is keeping any of these players in Milwaukee except the potential trade value Stearns could get in return. 1. Braun likely won't go anywhere due to the contract unless Milwaukee takes a low return in terms of talent and agrees to pay a chunk of his salary. That said, if he's productive this year he could be moved at the deadline, bringing back not much in return but getting the contract off the books. 2. Lucroy is as good as gone if the right deal comes along, unless Attanasio refuses to let Stearns deal him. The only reason to keep him is because the Brewers have no one else to catch. That reason makes no sense if you're not trying to win right now. 3. Gennett's days are numbered as a Brewer. Contrary to what was written above, he doesn't have a high ceiling in my opinion. He's a bat-first 2B who is not that good with the bat. I doubt he'll be with the team coming out of spring training. He just doesn't fit the mold of a guy who has positional flexibility, something Stearns clearly values. -
What is bugging me? The sorry state of my favorite sports teams right now Packers - the most disappointing season in years and the first time in a long time that I have no confidence in them to come through when they need to. Bucks - a very disappointing start. It feels like the end of the Skiles era now, with the coach preaching things to the team that they have no interest in doing. The lack of effort on defense on a regular basis so maddening. Badgers FB - A disappointing season in terms of results and performance. I know a lot of it is injury related, but I'm really disappointed in the inability to make plays and the lack of progress shown by the offensive line. The O-line, traditionally a Badger strength, has been poor and doesn't seem to be improving. Badgers BB - Disappointing in the sense that they were so good the last 2 years. I have low expectations, so the record doesn't matter much to me, but it's a step back from the recent teams. Marquette BB - Wojo can recruit, but can he coach this young team to anything? They've shown signs the last 2 games, but I wouldn't say they are decent mid-major. Like UW, they need some young players to grow up fast. Brewers - I probably feel better about them than anybody else on this list. I have no expectations for the ML team and can just enjoy the good, while waiting for Stearns to purge the remaining large contracts and getting on to the full rebuild. I have to admit, it's a long way away, but I'm as excited for this year's draft as I have been in years.
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J.A. Happ to Toronto - 3 years, $36M
QuevedosTongue replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This is a surprise, both in the dollars and the fact that they're doing this before David Price signs. Maybe they're convinced he's not coming back. -
See my post above, linking to a Mike Petriello piece on MLB.com. Yes - Kershaw would definitely be exempt. The basic idea is to remove starters once they start dropping off in effectiveness, usually the third time through the order. Some pitchers, such Kershaw or Grienke or Arrieta, are obviously going to generally be more effective the third time through the order than the guy out of the bullpen you replace him with. The idea isn't just to replace pitchers for replacement sake, it's to maximize the value of all the pitchers on the roster by removing them at their most likely points of failure. This makes a lot more sense to me. Rather than put pitchers in a "2 times through the order and done" pigeonhole, maybe a team would go into the season with a couple guys that have a longer leash, while allowing the other SPs to earn their way into pitching more. As the Brewers roster stands right now, Garza is the only guy who would have the longer leash (not because he deserves it, but because he is a veteran and asking him to change wouldn't work). I foresee the big problem is that it's just so different from what the industry norm is right now. Getting pitchers to buy into this would be a huge job and it would have to be an organization-wide philosophy. That said, the Brewers are in the perfect position as an organization (rebuilding/retooling, low expectations) to try something like this. I could really see them trying it with the back end of the rotation. Say you give Garza, Nelson, Peralta a bit longer leashes to see if they can go longer into games, but going with a shorter leash for the #4 and #5 SPs. That would also give the team the option of pitching the #1, #2, #3 guys shorter if the bullpen is rested, or having someone suck up innings if need be if the pen is tired. It would likely require at least 1 pitcher to be a swingman for the whole season. This conversation makes me think of the old Dodgers reliever Mike Marshall. Anybody who doesn't remember him, look up his stats sometime. When you look at what RPs do in the game these days, Marshall's numbers are stunning.
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Luis Sardinas to Mariners for OF Ramon Flores
QuevedosTongue replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think it's pretty clear that Stearns is making these moves looking at positional flexibility, not necessarily talent upgrades. These minor deals are likely being done to cover the Brewers at multiple positions. With that done, there is less pressure to get "major league ready" talent when the bigger fish (Lind, Segura, etc.) are dealt. Guys like Scooter or Khris Davis have no value if they don't hit, but a guy like Villar will always have utility value to a team. I'm pretty sure none of the players acquired recently are expected to provide more than average production over their time in Milwaukee. If they give more that's great, but they are there to be placeholders. If any of them surprise and give more than that it will just be a bonus. -
From today's Baseball Prospectus, where the Tigers Top 10 prospects was posted: Betancourt ranked 8th on the list. Future tools: 60 Field, 50 hit, 50 arm (ranked on the 20-80 scale) Role: 45 - Utility infielder/fringe average starter at 2B "Betancourt is the antithesis of the Dombrowski prospect; an infielder without a high ceiling but with a fairly high floor. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and a short, compact swing, and there's very little here in terms of contact issues. Unfortunately, his lack of strength and bat speed mean he doesn't make much loud contact, as the power is well below average. he also won't draw many walks, so this is a player who needs to provide value with the glove. Fortunately, he does just that. He has plus range and he uses his footwork to make the most of his average throwing arm. He'll never hit anywhere but the bottom of the order, but Betancourt has a chance to start at the keystone one day, and the defense is good enough to make him better than replacement." So, a serviceable player who should make it to the bigs, although he certainly isn't an impact bat.
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I am so disappointed with what I've seen from the Bucks so far. The team that was scrappy and annoying on defense last year has disappeared and the offense has no consistency (and has had none) since Brandon Knight left the team. None of the guards can hit a shot. The list goes on. The most disturbing part for me is the utter lack of interest the team seems to have. There has been small spurts of intensity, but not a lot, and the lack of effort shows. They are getting beaten down the floor by opposing big men for easy buckets (or fouls), they are not guarding the ball very well at all, and have been outrebounded in every game, culminating in last night's utter beatdown on the glass. I was not a Kidd believer when they hired him, but the way the team played last year changed my mind. Their play this year is rapidly changing it back.
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As do the GMs and it's beyond me why Rizzo has been able to skate on Washington's failures. Regarding Mattingly, I think his leaving has something to do with Friedman being hired a year ago. Mattingly was a prior administration guy and, frankly, just doesn't seem like a Friedman type.
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I don't understand people not liking this hire, when they don't really know anything about this guy. And focusing on the negatives seems shortsighted. Maybe this will turn out to be a great hire, maybe not, but none of us have a clue right now. And the idea that Stearns and Johnson are 'learning on the job' is silly, it's not like they plucked them off the street. These guys have both been in the industry and worked in their respective specialties for years. For both the promotions are the obvious next step in their careers and the Brewers certainly hope both are ready. They may end up being the wrong hires, but I applaud the Brewers for hiring people that aren't 'old school' retreads.
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I give Maddon credit for changing the attitude of the team against teams that were considered better and taking a team full of young players who have little to no playoff experience to this point. They clearly have the most talent on offense in the NL. I'll still be surprised if they win the WS this year. I think they would beat the Dodgers and I see a Mets series as pretty even. I think a Mets series would be a lot of fun, as so many of the players are young and new to the playoff experience. All that said, Toronto looks like a clear favorite to win it all.
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Matt Arnold hired as new Asst GM
QuevedosTongue replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I believe that would be Ralph Malph. -
Why has MLB outlawed the "collision at home plate" play but this kind of thing is still legal? Utley slid VERY late and came in rolling, not sliding. I don't fault any of the players here, Utley was doing what he's supposed to do. It just seems crazy that players are allowed to do this with no consequences. And anyone who disagrees, please explain why this is different from someone blocking the plate.
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Nats fire Williams, coaching staff
QuevedosTongue replied to WV Brew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Williams should have been fired, but Rizzo probably should be as well. Left Williams with a lousy bullpen, then brought in the universally disliked Papelbon to "fix" that situation. As well as stocking the club with injury risks, who, shockingly, got hurt. -
What's wrong with the 1-game wildcard setup
QuevedosTongue replied to Patrick425's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I love the current system and hope it stays. 1. The 1 game playoff is exciting and interesting. 2. Division winners are rewarded. Teams play nearly half their games within their division, they should be rewarded for winning. Does that stink for a team like the Pirates, who were mediocre in-division but pounder everyone else? Yes, but maybe they should play better against a poor team like Milwaukee. 3. It penalizes the WC teams by forcing them to use pitchers prior to the DS round. Sure the Pirates would love to be starting the series against the Cardinals with Gerrit Cole, but they now have a win-or-go-home game first. -
David Stearns named Milwaukee's new GM
QuevedosTongue replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Just to clarify, Stearns worked with Houston for 35 months and, other than his time as Asst Director, Baseball Operations Arizona Fall League, he worked at least 14 months at each job along the way. If you are curious about his complete work history, you can view his LinkedInaccount or his Houston Astro's bio. The question I would ask is this: Why should someone who is qualified to move to a new (and presumably better) job stay at his current one just so he can "pay his dues"? I couldn't agree more Bill. This idea that an ambitious, qualified person has to stay in any job for any length of time seems wrong. Stearns has been with 3 different orgs over the last several years and has had multiple positions in each. Not because he was demoted or reassigned, but, I would think, because he proved himself capable of handling a promotion. Whether he's successful in this job or not will have nothing to do with how long he worked at any other position or whether or not he paid any dues anywhere. It'll be about his ability to make smart personnel moves and the ability of his team to scout and develop talent.

