Lathund

It's a good return for 1 1/3 season of Kimbrel. But like LouisEly says, it's not something to lose sleep over. Madrigal will be an annoying player to face, but his approach also puts a hard ceiling on his offense. He's a spray-hitting groundball hitter with good speed, so his BABIP will be above average even if he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard. And because 85-90% of his plate appearances end with the ball in play, he'll get a lot of hits. But groundballs (Or weakly hit balls) don't result in many extra base hits, and putting the ball in play to this degree means you also swing on many pitches you shouldn't, pitches you can't get good contact on, or pitches that would be balls. So those balls in play will be his entire offensive output, and it'll be mostly singles with a few doubles in there. It'll be enough to make him an above average hitter on its own, but he can't really get better without changing his game. The reason he can hit for such a high average is because he has absolutely no power. He's a good player, he'll be an average to above average starter. Maybe he'll even go to an all-star game in one of his better years. He'll get some annoyingly timed hits against us for sure. But he's not some superstar who is going to terrorize us for years. So again, Cubs did well, but it's a "safe" low-ceiling high-floor type of return. Remains to see what else they do, with a Hoerner-Madrigal infield they have two oldschool infielders who can hit but with little power. Probably looking to build with a lot of power around them.

I liked Henry, but for a good reliever with 4 years remaining after this it seems like a very solid deal.

These guys know how to evaluate pitchers, if this is the guy they want, I'll trust that it's the right move. Underlying numbers look good, I doubt he'll continue to put up a .354 BABIP going forward regardless of defense, and a good defense will make it even less likely. As for Olson, Fangraphs seems like the outlier in rating him highly, and not overly impressive numbers in the minors. Again, the same "good at evaluating pitchers" thing goes here.

BA prospect editor: The 2021 preseason rankings will have been among the least accurate preseason rankings ever, due to the lack of minor league baseball in 2020. Seems like the consensus among the prospect people I've seen is that it seems like a fair trade.

Switch hitter who plays multiple positions, which is nice. More of a trade that gives the lineup more depth than one that straight up makes it better, as offensively it's not an upgrade on Urias. But I've also said it before that the Brewers starting lineup is fine offensively, and that it's the plate appearances going to the players beyond that which has hurt. Escobar is a big step up from Shaw or Reyes, so I do like it. I was actually curious to see what Hummel could've done, and figured him seeing time at 1B was a prelude to that. But I'd also much rather lose him than giving up a Mitchell/Turang/Small/Ashby type of player for our offensive acquisitions. Ciprian has had a nice start to his DSL career, but it's so incredibly hard to predict anything with the DSL guys. If he turns out to be a good player many years down the line, then good for him and the Dbacks. When in any kind of "win now" mode the players who are 4-5 years away from having an impact can't be hugged too closely. Keep the aforementioned guys who could have an impact while Woody/Burnes/Hader etc are still here, trade from the lower minors.

Since the intent to crack down on foreign substances was announced (the crackdown itself happened a few weeks later, but the effect on spin rates coud be seen immediately) on June 3rd, Brewers have the best ERA in MLB. By a lot; 0.4 runs/game. They also have the best FIP/xFIP in that time. Being able to handle that transition so well is a very positive sign.

I assume Perdomo is going down when Williams is activated, likely the same day as Cain. After that, there really aren't any obvious choices for pitchers to send down. It also sounds like it won't be a true 5-man rotation. It sounds like Houser will be piggybacking with a rotating starter who will get a shorter start. Gustave seems like a good candidate to get sent down too. And whether it's a piggyback or not, it still frees things up more. With a 14 man pitching staff, with a 6-man rotation you have 8 pitchers to cover the relief innings. With a 5-man rotation you have 9 pitchers to cover it. Even if that extra man is used in a piggyback, that's still fewer innings to cover for the rest; you'd count on getting maybe 7 innings from the piggyback as opposed to 5 from the starter alone (Seeing as part of the reason to use it would be to limit workloads) Which means 2 fewer innings to cover each time through the rotation compared to before. That doesn't sound like much, but it's basically the workload of one full-time reliever. Brewers have liked to go with the extra pitcher and short bench, and with how little Hiura has played recently it does seem like the most likely option. But another reliever going down is a very realistic possibility.

Hosmer is a replacement level 1B only. If they want to give us a legit prospect to take him on, then maybe. But he's not any kind of upgrade. As for Inciarte, I don't buy it at all. Even if they trade Cain, they still have JBJ as a glove-first CF. Taylor plays a decent CF too, Defensive CF is hardly a position of need. Don't think there is anything to it at all.

Probably Hiura going down, but with the move back to a 5-man rotation they effectively gain a reliever, making it easier to go with a 13-man pitching staff again so it's also possible they send down a reliever.

I read somewhere that unlike all the others, Woodruff hadn't been jumped in the rotation at any point before, so just taking the opportunity for an extra days rest at a time where the off days means they can do it without taking away Burnes' extra rest day.

Eh I'm OK with the name, even if it is a bit generic-sounding. So many team names sound "good" simply because we're used to them really. A few years from now I don't think anyone will think the Guardians are any different from any other name.

Rich Hill has struggled since the sticky stuff crackdown, which is hardly surprising for a 4-seam/curveball guy. Probably a part of it. If they don't expect him to do well for the rest of the year, might as well get what you can.

If Braun was to come back, he'd need a few weeks in the minors first. That'd take us past the deadline, so if he plays like a 37 year old with little 1B experience who in his last season was right about a league-average hitter and now hasn't played for almost year... then it'll be too late to trade for anyone. Which is why, even if the team believed Braun could make an impact and Braun did want to come back (And I don't think either of those things are true) it makes little sense. Or at least it wouldn't be instead of a trade for a hitter, but in addition to. I just don't see the benefits of it, either you believe that the law firm of Hiura, Vogelbach & Tellez can be adequate at 1B and stick with them, or you go out and get someone who is clearly an upgrade.

Sounds suspiciously like something HH19 would say!

Over the last 30 days, the Brewers position players are hitting .275/.369/.463, good for 126 wRC+, 6th best in the majors. You can even go back to May 1st and the Brewers are essentially tied with the Reds (101 wRC+ vs their 103 wRC+) for the best offense in the Central. Yet the perception that the Reds have an amazing offense and the Brewers are the worst persists. Which is not surprising, the perceptions created in April tend to live on for a long time, when in reality April is the least predictive month. The Reds hot offensive start was in part due to players like Barnhart having a 132 wRC+ in April (Career: 85 wRC+), Tyler Naquin with 140 (Career 100), and an easy early schedule (April had 9 games against the Dbacks and Pirates, 6 against the Cardinals pitching staff etc). Any offense with Castellanos and Winker is going to be pretty good, but they're not some offensive juggernaut.

Hey Arcia has an .860 OPS in 7 games with the Braves with 6 RBI. That's better production in LF than from another team I know. It's sometimes hard to tell who on here is joking and who takes a 7-game sample seriously. I suspect the former, but just in case it's the latter: .245/.294/.366 career hitter. Now without even the slightly redeeming factor of adquate shortstop defense.

Braves have been starting Orlando Arcia in LF recently. That's about as big of a positional need there is. With Acuña out for the season there's a decent argument for selling, but at the same time they're still only 4 games out so some minor additions could be worth a shot too, and has been pointed out if they fall even further behind they could flip Joc again before the deadline to get something back. Return seems reasonable to me. A 23 year old 1B/DH in A+ doesn't exactly scream high ceiling, but could be a useful player if that power can stay while keeping strikeouts at an acceptable level. Big ifs, but can't really expect much more for a platoon LF bat who has struggled the last couple seasons.

He played on Sunday (11th). Team off day Monday, and is in the lineup tonight. So he missed two games. Why? I don't know. I wouldn't call it almost a week though.

The problem for the Cubs isn't just that they're 8 games back, it's that they're tied with one team, have two in front, and likely no wild card spot to compete for. If the Brewers fall on their face, then that means the Reds won't have fallen on theirs. Cubs need the Brewers and Reds to collapse, and also to match the Cardinals. Any one of those on its own is not unreasonable, but all 3 at once?

I don't think Avi is a Brewer in 2022. If he doesn't decline the option, Brewers very well might (Or trade him). Not that he wouldn't be worth a $10m 1-year commitment, but more looking at the rest of the outfield. Yelich and Cain are under contract still. JBJ is unlikely to opt out (And probably unlikely to be released too). And Taylor will be out of options. Taylor looks like a fairly similar player to Garcia in many ways, going with him in that starting role isn't a big drop-off and saves you $9.5m. And you can then go with an optionable 5th OF or an INF/OF type for that roster spot. And I think there's a decent chance Garcia declines it too. 109 wRC+ this year (112 over the last 5 years), plays average-ish defense in RF, can play CF when needed, still only 30 with no real health concerns. I think he'll feel pretty good about beating the $10m that'd be left.

The way it's structured makes it look a bit more complicated than it is. What it boils down to is that if he doesn't exercise his player option for 2022, it's a 1 yr $13m contract If he opts in, it's a 2yr $24m deal. The way it's done with the options and such is for accounting/cashflow purposes. That mutual option for 2023 is designed so as to 100% be declined by (at least) one side. But anyway back to the point, it's an interesting decision. Does he feel like he can get more than $11m guaranteed if he opts out? I think it depends on the rest of the season. His full-season numbers are shot, they'll never look good, but a strong end to the season would suggest he's not finished as a player, and if so it's not unreasonable to think he might get more than $11m. But if the season was to end today, I'm sure he'd opt in and take the $11m.

Reading through the early posts, it'd kind of interesting how little the fact that Lind had only 1 year remaining was brought up. Today I think a much larger proportion of the fanbase realise the effect that has on valutations, and I don't think this kind of haul would really be surprising to anyone. Shows both how the knowledge of how front offices operate in the "Moneyball era" (And what I'm sure is a vague slide into whatever "Post-Moneyball" will be) is spreading, but also what a slow process it is.

I like the Frelick pick. I'll always take hit tool over raw power in a draftee. The latter is more likely to develop over time than the former, so I'd rather have that foundation and floor. Grades out really well both for speed and defense, plays both CF and middle infield. I've also never really understood the aversion some have to drafting "up the middle" guys; of course you go for them, someone who at 18 or 20 is already considered not athletic enough to play anything but the corners is a big risk; All their value comes at the plate, they're players who are only candidates for maybe 2-3 roster spots. If the expectation of their ability to hit is high enough you take them anyway, but any "sure thing" as far as hitting goes gets taken early, like Vaughn or Torkelson (or Hiura...) in recent years. But if you don't have those high picks, you're always selecting between players flawed in different ways. So you go for the upside, the guys with the chance to be 5-tool players, the guys who if they put on more muscle and weight still have the chance to move down the defensive spectrum a step or two and still use their power. Or if the power doesn't develop, still has an MLB role to play. As opposed to guys who must reach their 90th percentile projection to even be rosterable on a 26 or even 40-man roster. The kind of "up the middle" pick I can agree with being questionable is when it's basically all just projection; who haven't really shown they can hit or aren't polished defenders etc; i.e pure athleticism type of guys. Prospcts who have a sky high ceiling if they ever learn to hit enough, which is a very very big if, and who will run a high bust rate. I don't really feel that applies to the recent high picks made like Turang or Mitchell (and now Frelick). Guys with contact skills who get on base, don't strikeout much, plus runners and plus defenders. That's a high floor, and the kind of profile where if they add even average power to their game they're very good players. And that power can come; check Altuves or Betts early power numbers. HR power can come from raw power, or it can be a result of less raw power but making more frequent quality contact. And again, the guys with huge raw power won't be available at this spot if they also have good contact skills.

Gutierrez pitched well against the Brewers before, I really hope it won't last. But he might just be the best Vladimir G in MLB.

The narrative on height has also shifted as pitch usage has. When pounding the bottom of the zone with sinkers, being a tall guy with a high release point and a short stride is a plus, as it creates a steeper downward angle as the pitch crosses the plate, which is what you want with a sinker. But when pitching with 4-seamers up in the zone, being short, with a low release point and a long stride (i.e gets further down the mound, and thus even lower release point) are advantageous because of the more horizontal approach angle it creates. It's always the case with any signings or trade that's not for a "big name". The Wade Miley thread was one of the most negative I have ever seen, there were even posters happy about his ST injury since it might mean he wouldn't be on the roster. Same with many others. And not to mention how we'd have traded Woody and Peralta already for Quintana or Alex Cobb or whoever by now. Basically it's a good thing that fans don't have a say in how a club is run.