Lathund

Didn't see it in the final counts in box score but the live MiLB scoreboard at one point showed his first 17 pitches were all strikes. Very encouraging. He most likely didn't. It's like in ST where pitch counts aren't officially tracked. So the live scoreboard at the end said 22 pitches, all strikes. But it's because that's the minimum; 4 strikeouts = 12 strikes, 5 hits = 5 strikes, 5 other batters faced = 5 strikes, total 22. Next guy in the box score, Dario, had 21 pitches. 8 balls from 2 walks, 9 strikes from 3 strikeouts, 1 strike from 1 hit, 3 strikes for 3 other batters faced. And so on. Now since he got 4 strikeouts and no walks, he probably did throw a fair amount of strikes. But don't trust the pitch counts for these games.

I like Bryant as a player, and his versatility (3B, 1B, LF, RF and even CF in a pinch) is huge. He's also one of the few current Cubs I don't mind at all. But I'm also not a believer in giving up actual prospects for rentals; any rentals. Maybe if it's a hyped Rookie ball kid who might very well be a legit good prospect, but is also at least 4-5 years away and obviously carries a ton of risk. Prospects who have passed the biggest promotion hurdle in the minors and proven that they can handle AA are different though, especially if the team is looking to be competitive for more than just this year. Starting pitching in particular shouldn't be given up like that, thinking of the Small + Turang proposal earlier. Small probably doesn't have the stuff to ever be an ace, but at the same time seems to have a very high floor and it's hard to see him not be a back of the rotation guy at a minimum. The homegrown (Or at least developed in the org) pitching has been the key to the success, and will remain so, and it's vital to continue that. If we're going to give up legit actual prospects, I want it to be for long-term players. Like the Yelich trade. Or give up a couple of relievers for almost 4 years of Willy Adames... Anyway, as for the Cubs in general. They went for their strategy of drafting position players early and acquiring pitching in FA. Which obviously worked, they won a WS, and their first round picks worked out well for them overall. But what prevented them from remaining relevant and avoiding another rebuild this soon was the total failure to develop pitching. I imagine Alzolay has passed him now, but before this season Duane Underwood with 35 MLB innings was the pitcher originally signed or drafted in the Theo era who had contributed the most to the MLB team. You can't sustain that really. Means needing to constantly hit on your free agent pitcher signings, needing to spend money on your #4-5 starters and middle relievers that can't be used elsewhere etc. And then when your position player core also gets expensive with nothing else coming through.... well, you end up with the 2021 Cubs. So their strategy was a great short-term one, but I think the Brewers seemingly opposite philosophy of developing pitching while paying for position players is more long-term sustainable.

With all of the team overviews finally complete, Fangraphs has a pre-draft farm system rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team= For the first time in a while, Brewers aren't in the bottom 5. There is also this from the article about it: Teams ranked low who I think have players destined for huge growth includes the Cubs, Angels and Brewers because of the young players they have at Low-A and on the complex right now. Baseball Prospectus also put out an updated top 50 (Though one that excludes players currently in the majors that are still rookie-eligible, hence no Franco) which features Garrett Mitchell at 46. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/68138/2021-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/

Cubs being big-time buyers and doing stupid things like trade upper-minors prospects like Amaya for rentals, while also not getting anything for their own rentals, would have been fantastic for the Brewers chances over the next few years. Basically forcing the Cubs to build an entire roster in free agency. Them being sellers this year is great for this year though.

Projection systems these days work on a lot more than slash lines. On a very basic level, two identical slash lines but with different K:BB ratios won't be projected the same, as plate discipline is a skill that translates well when moving up levels, and is harder to improve, than many others. Then even when it comes to those stats, you can get more specific and look at expected vs actual strikeouts. Like for instance, the rate of swinging strikes is better at predicting future strikeout rate than actual strikeout rate is. And going further still, when you can incorporate statcast data into projections, you get even more opportunities to identify breakouts. It won't ever be a tool that's fully reliable on an individual level, because we are after all dealing with humans and progress is rarely linear. Just that there is a methodology behind those good or bad projections that on the surface don't make sense. Some won't work out, but if you consistently go with the better projections, you'll do better overall than doing it the opposite way. Anyway, with Tellez (As was the case with Garcia) I suspect the the exit velocity and hard contact rates he makes is a big part of why they wanted him, you expect it to translate into better results at some point. But I also like that they look at various different approaches to hitting. Narvaez for example has some of the worst exit velocity and hard hit rates in the game, yet he is an excellent hitter. I've said it before, I believe this is one of the most "Moneyball" front offices in the game; in the sense that they don't go for a specific type of player, or skillset, necessarily, but they will go for players whose skillset is undervalued or whose contract/roster situation makes them undervalued. I'm sure they have their preferences (Like improving on defense this past offseason) but will sidestep that in favor of the biggest improvement, regardless of how it comes about. Which is how a front office that some complain about being obsessed with Craig Counsell-like utility infielders also end up with Shaw & Moustakas at 2B, Daniel Vogelbach and Rowdy Tellez on the same roster, and sticking with multiple 1B only (Or mostly) players in Aguilar/Thames for many years and so on.

I think he'll be fine defensively long term. Even at SS, though I'd still like to see him as primarily a 2B/3B who can cover SS occasionally when needed. The errors seem to be a mental thing, where he can play well overall and then one error, when it does happen, turns into multiple. I know you can't just discount things that happened, but if his multi-error games were 1-error games (i.e they happened in isolation, without one affecting the likelyhood of the next), his defensive ratings would be much improved. That's something that'll often improve with age and experience. Just like at the plate; baseball is a game about failure in some ways. Where a league average player fails (as in makes an out) 2/3 of the time. Fail "only" 60% of the time and you're probably an all-star. Gettting the hang of how to handle that, how to make the bad days slightly less bad, letting the inevitable hitless streaks affect you less, learning how to take the concrete lessons from failures to heart while letting go of everything else about them etc. is how you sustain a long career in this game. And I think that this is perhaps where Luis (As is to be expected for many young players) has been struggling. And I'd imagine that the seemingly infinite energy and positivity from a guy like Adames, and taking some of the pressure off him, has helped. So what I'm getting at is I think he has the skillset both at the plate and defensively to be an average or better player on both sides of the ball. Just need to find the right process that works for him to consistently play at, or at least near, his full ability. I think he will, we've seen signs of that improvement already. And he only recently turned 24. There is reason to be optimistic for sure! Gotta say too that in the light of the many "He can't, and won't ever hit fastballs" comments I saw from Padres fans, it was immensely satisfying to see him pull a 99mph deGrom fastball on the outside part of the plate for a home run.

He had put up a line of .229/.404/.429 since he came off the IL (In like 50 PAs), but at the same time with how little he was being used it's not really a surprise to see him go. I honestly still think that with somewhat regular playing time he'd be a useful player, but I also don't really see how you can justify giving that PT to him. So in that case it makes sense to stick with the utility guys who can be optioned. And yeah, this may mean someone else is about to be added to the 40-man as well, since if it was just about getting 26-man space they could've sent down Reyes instead.

I would be very surprised if much changed in the decision-making process when Stearns went from GM to President of Baseball Ops and Matt Arnold went from assistant GM to GM. It's a title bump to prevent other teams from poaching them, and recognition (And a salary bump) to Stearns/Arnold to reward them and to show that the team wants them to stay around.

Can't say I've seen enough of Tellez to, uh, tell anything about this trade really. Mashed in the minors with some real power, I'm fine with taking a shot on a mid 20s guy with 3-4 years (Depending on how long he has been/will be in the minors this year) of service time left with that kind of profile. Struggled so far this year, but raked in AAA and statcast data suggests he has been hitting the ball well. I don't fully understand it, but I also know this front office does things for a reason, and they see something in all that data we don't have access to as fans. While it won't always work out, since we are dealing with humans and don't have a time machine, I trust the idea behind it and I'm not scared of acquiring players with recent small-sample struggles. The last trade for a struggling AL East hitter turned out rather well after all. A bit surprised that Richards was let go this fast, he was doing rather well. At the same time, not very impressive peripherals overall and probably not overall more than an average-ish middle reliever. As for Francis I guess they felt they had a bunch of players in his mould already; the strike throwing starters with mediocre stuff who have a high likelyhood of making the majors but a low likelyhood of ever being more than #4-5 starters at best and who probably won't have their stuff play up out of the 'pen either. In general though I like the early trades, not sticking to the last week before the deadline if they see something they like. Now what exactly they like, and if it'll work out, is another matter. But I'll happilly wait and see. The guy has an option remaining so no real short-term downside to it.

Yeah I think it's a matter of Perez going to Korea, Westbrook to the Olympics etc and needing bodies. They had promoted Yeison Coca who was already struggling offensively in A+ to fill in already. I only remember him for the Newman-Kramer connection on the Pirates.

I think even if Urias keeps hitting like he has over the last month+ and Hiura hits well, we'd still want to sign a bat. Injuries will always happen, and Urias is also backing up SS/2B, so having another bat in the infield mix to prevent a drop-off from whenever the starting lineup is out. Probably not a huge need to go all out for a huge bat though. I'm sure they'll add a reliever or two as well; probably not the biggest names out there, but solid upgrades. But there is of course always a chance they'll do something noone was expecting...

Freddy Peralta did with that 13k performance at Coors. Woody went 6.1 scoreless in his debut. Burnes didn't start in his debut, but recorded a 2-inning save.

There are some posters that I use as a sanity check. If they're on the other side of an argument I feel good. If I find myself agreeing with them I start to scrutinize my stance to find the inevitable flaw.

If I remember correctly, Haines got tossed once before when he was equally mad, and the Brewers ended up scoring a bunch of runs after. Today, the first grand slam of the season immediately followed. Correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but I'll allow him his temper. So far, so good.

60-day IL for Covid protocols? Seems a bit much.

I wanted to trade him, but it had nothing to do with doubting his abilities, or having anything to do with the WC loss or his "down year" in 2020. He is one of the very best reilevers in the game, and I never doubted that. It's more of a long-term thing; if Brewers want to keep Hader long term they'll need to pay something similar to what Chapman got (5 years 86 million, with opt-out, and now on a 3 year 48m dfeal). Now will they do that? If the answer is "no" (Which it probably is), then at some point they should look to trade him. That point might have been last year, this year, next year, or when he's a rental. But at some point they should, and by all accounts were looking to. What I am glad for is that they stuck to their guns, if we are to believe reports about the "ridiculous" asking price. Simply because they didn't need to trade him now. So hold on until someone gets desperate enough to meet the asking price. And until that happens, just enjoy the show.

I think the deadline could be approached in multiple ways, and while I would choose the one of going for cheap (Which usually means rentals) acquisitions that target key weaknesses, there is of course the ability to go somewhat bigger, and go for a player that would cost more in terms of prospects. Before the Adames trade, a guy like Story would have been a possibility. But if we went down that route now, who I'd go for is Joey Gallo. A LHH who can play 1B, 3B and all outfield spots (And is actually a very good defender in LF/RF) and is a career 113 wRC+ hitter and 123 so far this year. Now he's someone who would probably drive certain fans mad in that his offensive profile is highly unique, perhaps best illustrated by the fact that he went two full seasons (2018 and 2019) where he hit more HRs than singles in that span; he's probably the most extreme TTO player that has seen sustained success. But he gets results, is a great fit positionally, there's a decent chance he's available (Though he's also a reasonable extension candidate for the Rangers given that he's only 27 still), and with 1½ years of control is not a rental. The extra year also means a higher acquisition cost, probably higher than I'd like to pay given the state of the farm. But not to the point where it's not doable. Again though I don't think it's all that likely. He'll be one of the more sought after guys at the deadline, and other teams are better equipped for a bidding war. But you never know, so they should (and I'm sure they are) looking at it. If a LHH 1B/3B is the goal, Colin Moran would be another possibility. With the added bonus that he'll no longer OPS .892 against us. 2½ years of control there though so the Priates could and would ask a fair bit. As for the recent discussion; I think that if closer to the deadline it doesn't look like Hiura will be a contributor, that's when you start looking at the 1B-only types like Cron or Aguilar. Until then I think the best bet is a 3B with some versatility.

While I would certainly like the offense to be better too, it needs pointing out that it isn't the worst in MLB. By runs scored it's 22nd, by non-pitcher wRC+ 24th (Including pitchers it's 9th in the NL), by Fangraphs overall baserunning metric (BsR) 6th. So it's already subpar, essentially. Over the last 30 days position players have a 95 wRC+, good for 20th (Cardinals and Cubs are sitting at 84 in that time). Basically the offense is slowly coming around, because there were far more unsustainably bad than unsustainably good performances during that terrible early stretch. As players regress towards the mean (From both directions), Brewers offense has been getting better. Now the big thing for me is that while we can now actually field a full lineup of 100+ wRC+ hitters with good defense, we run into problems when we have to go beyond that and the quality drops of big time. So for example while I'm happy with Urias at 3B both offensively and defensively, he is also the primary backup for 2B and SS, and an injury to either of those three positions weakens the team badly. So an average to above average 3B bat (Ideally with some positional flexibility) is an upgrade on the Reyes/Peterson/Robertsons of this world really, and that goes a long way and shouldn't be too hard to find. So while we're all unhappy to varying degrees with regards to the offense and would like it to be better, can we stop the hyperbole? It's not the worst in MLB, and it's certainly not the worst lineup of all time that we've seen posters here declare it as.

LBJ was signed to be the ghost runner in extra innings.

Robertson has looked fine in limited playing time after coming back of the IL. The fact that it's very limited means we can't really draw too many conclusions about it, but his career numbers are perfectly good for a utility guy. And with Peterson, Reyes and Lopes also on the roster (With the last two being optionable) I think they're more likely to be gone before DRob is. And as bad as Robertsons overall stat line is, a 50 point gap in OBP and 150 point gap in SLG is massive.

I'm much closer to 0%, as I have been the whole time. If there was mutual interest, he would have signed by now. The more time that passes, the worse of an idea it gets. I don't see him being interested in spending a few weeks in the minors to get ready, and if he doesn't do that then the early going will be rough even in a realistic best case scenario. Then there's the injuries. Not just from the team PoV that having a guy who is day-to-day as much as he is is kind of rough, but from his point of view as well. Playing through that constant stream of minor injuries and the ever-present pain and rehab can't be enjoyable at all. It's one thing to be paid $15m a year to do it, and aside from the money itself as a matter of pride to fulfill your obligations. But to leave comfortable retirement to go through that again, for much, much less money, with the added risk that you might not be able to hack it anymore? It would be a stretch to say he went out on top, but a 101 OPS+ is still average, and a respectable way to go out. And to be able to say you did it on your own terms (Whether it's actually true or not). Many players don't officially retire straight away, even when they have no intention of coming back. For whatever reasons they may have for it.

Jacob deGrom has made 10 starts as of tonight. He has more RBIs (5) than earned runs given up (4). It's hard to find the words to describe how ridiculous that is.

Until their recent West Coast trip, Cubs had the easiest schedule in MLB per Baseball Reference's strength of schedule metric, and it's still among the easier ones. And as Sveum pointed out above, sequencing has been in their favor. I don't think they're a very good team, and if they ever suffer some injuries to their already weak rotation they could be really bad. The way I (and the projections) saw it, Brewers were the preseason favorite to take the division, and they still are. That the Brewers are tied with the Cubs at the top of the division despite how hitters have underperformed, and the difference in schedules, just reinforces that. Cubs fans seem really confident, and I'm gonna enjoy seeing them come back to reality. I think that whether they plan to rebuild or try to contend, not selling (or even buying) at the deadline is going to hurt them long-term.

I frankly don't see a scenario where Garcia is back next year. Either he plays so well that he declines his option for a better contract or he continues being marginally productive and the Brewers look elsewhere. I'm just not sure a middle ground exists where his performance makes the Brewers feel like picking up the extra $10 million and Avi doesn't opt out. Thanks, I forgot it is a team option. Yah, I am guessing he is gone regardless. We are on the hook for $2mil regardless, basically. It's a team option which becomes a mutual option based on PAs in 2020-2021, which it looks likely he'll reach.

I would be surprised. It's necessary after the DH to get everyone back on 4 days rest. Then Lauer goes to the pen, where they do need another at least serviceable arm. They've pitched their starters on 5 days rest almost exclusively so far this season. Sometimes rest days allows that, but when there have been that many straight games without rest they've used a 6th starter. So you should probably expect to be surprised. If surprise worked that way..