Lathund

Yeah, I also think today is less of a pure bullpen game and more of a Suter as opener for Bettinger game. If Brewers have a lead he probably has a short leash before turning it over to the "when ahead" relievers.

Worth noting is that that 2019 804 OPS was 10% below average. The PCL as a whole has very hitter-friendly ballparks even without Colorado, and AAA used the very juiced 2019 MLB baseball that year. 2019 was, if anything, a disappointing step back (at least from a statistical standpoint; I didn't see him play in AAA). Overall through 2017-2019 (I'm ignoring the 40 PAs of Rookie-ball rehab stints) he was almost exactly an average hitter for those leagues. Now I like Taylor and I hope he features a lot this year and even more next year, but it doesn't really change the fact that pre-2021 (Or pre-2020) Tyrone Taylor wasn't someone whose presence meant you wouldn't be signing other OFs (As the original post in the chain talked about).

In addition to Mitchell, I'm really looking forward to seeing what Carlos Rodriguez can do in A+, it he can maintain that high-contact profile as he climbs up the system.

Despite our winning ways, the Cardinals have kept up and are only one game behind. However, as of yesterday they were 1-2 in games against teams at or over .500; namely the Brewers were the only such team they had played. With the Nats getting up to 11-11, Cardinals now have a 3-6 record against such teams. They've had a super soft schedule, and at some point they'll start playing some actual good teams like the Brewers have. I think their record will reflect that.

They don't need to give up on him, never suggested that, but other than when Cain has a day off JBJ shouldn't be starting games in CF. So it's backing up CF/LF and then some kind of rotation/soft platoon type of thing in RF for him. It's very useful to have a player who can almost replace Cain defensively when needed, those are pretty rare. So it's not as if he's useless or anything. He's just not worthy of a full time starting spot right now.

That isn’t an accurate description of JBJ or comparison either. Bradley’s career walk % is 9.2 and Baez is 4.6. Now Bradley has been terrible this year (2%) but his next lowest for his career is 7.3%, whereas Baez’s career high is 6.3% (in only 229 AB’s). ML average is 8.2%. It's a reasonable comparison this year, even if their career numbers are very different. Normally I'm very much a small sample size sceptic, but there's a caveat here. Walk/strikeout rates stabilize a lot faster than any batted ball statistics, so I'm not really bothered by his HR rate or BABIP; it's way too small a sample for that. But he's walking less and striking out more than in the past, because his plate discipline is worse than the past; swinging at more balls and fewer strikes, and making less contact (Swinging strike rate this year is up 5%, and is now at Baez career levels). He's still a bit more patient than Baez so no, it's not a perfect comp, but the swing and miss is real. It's also not something that's going to get better just by doing more of the same and counting on the randomness inherent in thet game to do its thing; he needs to drastically improve on his swing/take decisions for there to be any change. Which he might do, but I'd like him to not be in the everyday lineup while he works on that.

I really hope he's ready to go tomorrow. Painful to see JBJ in the everyday lineup. I know he's a streaky player, and at some point he'll probably have a good run too, but at this point I'm just hoping he plays well enough to opt out, not expecting anything more. Players like him with zero plate discipline who swing at everything (Like an OF version of Baez) will always be frustratingly inconsistent I suppose.

Yesterday Brewers won their 16th game and had their 16th IL placement (Wong is the only one to come off so far). Yardley going on the IL today means Brewers will win game #17. Sacrifice one player for every win.

Doesn't have to have anything to do with the Brewers, teams try the tactic of claiming players and then hopefully trying to sneak them through waivers. More often in the offseason, but happens during the season too. Ehire Adrianza and Blake Parker are two players who were very short-lived Brewers due to a claim and a DFA in past offseasons, there were more but those spring to mind. Brewers are probably OK with relying on Feliciano as backup until Friday when Piña is expected back; they'd just have to DFA Nottingham again once both Piña and Narvaez are back. Not to say it's impossible that they're looking to bring him back (Seeing as he knows the pitching staff etc), just that his DFA doesn't really imply that.

It also means we get the Lauer Bauer power hour.

Yeah defensive metrics mean very little at this point. They actually quite liked him before the "yips-game" with the airmailed throws. Urias is a good hitter; has a good eye, makes good swing/take decisions. Sometimes the ump (Or the abilty of the catcher/pitcher to steal strikes on the edges) will screw him, sometimes not. His BABIP will increase, and so will his numbers.

NLC was the first division where all team won 10 games, and the first where all teams lost 10 games. Winning and losing together! But of course, in the end the Brewers will win slightly more.

I think it's just part of the workload management of going from a 60 to a 162 game season. Teams will handle it in different ways; Brewers will generally keep pitch counts fairly low I would think, and temporarily going to a 6-man rotation is another way. I would expect we'll see this any time there are a lot of consecutive games without offdays, that there will be spot starts made. That Lauer has a great record against the Dodgers might have contributed to this too, even if their lineup will look rather different to when he last played them.

Urias has great ball/strike recognition, and doesn't swing and miss much. That .212 BABIP is the only thing keeping his stat line looking bad; and even then his high OBP gives him a league average wRC+ already. With anything even close to normal batted ball luck it'd look much better. He's already a better hitter than Arcia ever was.

Poor Manny, seems to always get hit in really painful ways. Also, hoping Nottingham clears waivers now to have a bit of extra depth.

I take the opposite view; his value has dropped far enough that we won't get all that much in return even if we sell right now; if the Brewers are concerned enough about him to sell low, other teams will be concerned too. He's 24 with 2 option years remaining; the cost of having him work on his game in AAA is one 40-man roster spot. If we had to keep him on the 26-man roster, or paid him a high salary, I might have agreed with the logic to sell low. I'll take the risk of value dropping lower in return for knowing what he can do if he gets right. To me his main issue seems to be one of timing, which is why it appears that he has a hole in his swing. And I think that is a much more fixable issue than had it been about ball-strike recognition or bat speed or a long bat path etc. He's 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. Maybe he won't ever be able to adjust to the changes in how he's being pitched, or maybe he will. I just think the right value play is sticking with it, because the upside is is there *if* he makes it. We're not getting a player who can have an immediate offensive impact anyway. I think his value has dropped some .....but it's still fairly significant value. As you say, he's still 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. He's 24, he's cheap and he's controlled. He was a top 15 prospect. I think there's a ton of teams that would absolutely take a chance on him and could return something of immediate impact. At the end of the day even in his limited career there has been an enormous difference in Keston's floor and ceiling. I'm sure our own analytical guys are trying to determine which is the more permanent Keston and that should figure in to what we decide to do with him. But if you take the more positive stance in that first paragraph.. why sell at all? Any "immediate impact" player will by definition have less team control or a higher salary or a lower ceiling, or a combination of all three. Or else the player wouldn't get traded for a struggling player with upside. It'd be a short-term move, trading upside and potential long-term impact for immediate help but with less upside and/or shorter time horizon. It's getting rid of a high risk/high reward type of situation for a lower risk but lower reward scenario. And I think the only way a team with the budget of the Brewers has a legit shot at a WS is by going with the upside plays and taking those risks. ETA; With regards to the last paragraph. I think that's the key. More than anything to do with risk of losing more value etc, it should come down to whether you think his issues can be fixed or not. If yes, keep. If no, trade. Where we seem to differ is if the answer is varying shades of "maybe". I'm in the camp of keeping him until you can answer it with more certainty. Because the way I see it, I value the potential upside a lot more than the fear of missing out on a good deal and having to settle for less.

I take the opposite view; his value has dropped far enough that we won't get all that much in return even if we sell right now; if the Brewers are concerned enough about him to sell low, other teams will be concerned too. He's 24 with 2 option years remaining; the cost of having him work on his game in AAA is one 40-man roster spot. If we had to keep him on the 26-man roster, or paid him a high salary, I might have agreed with the logic to sell low. I'll take the risk of value dropping lower in return for knowing what he can do if he gets right. To me his main issue seems to be one of timing, which is why it appears that he has a hole in his swing. And I think that is a much more fixable issue than had it been about ball-strike recognition or bat speed or a long bat path etc. He's 80 games removed from a 140 wRC+ debut season. Maybe he won't ever be able to adjust to the changes in how he's being pitched, or maybe he will. I just think the right value play is sticking with it, because the upside is is there *if* he makes it. We're not getting a player who can have an immediate offensive impact anyway.

The guys on the 40-man who are not on the major league roster who would be in contention are Bettinger (Was hurt in ST, I think he's back now though), Lauer and Weigel. They could add someone (Zimmermann, Godley, Brown etc), but the 40-man is full and I don't think they'll want to drop someone until they have to. If it wasn't in the midst of a long stretch of games without off days I would've said Suter + bullpen. Which is still a possibility ofc. So all things considered I would expect Lauer. But it's hard to say since we don't know how anyone has looked at the alternate site. Perhaps Lauer has continued to struggle and then it probably won't be him. But he has only a few games worth of being terrible with the Brewers, and 250 IP worth of being an adequate bottom of the rotation starter before that, so as bad as he's looked I'd still value the latter higher. That is, unless the shoulder issues he had last year are still lingering.

Off to a good start here.

It looked like it was elbow related, but saying today it's a tricep injury. Tricep tears can take a lot of time too, but at least it seems like it's not another UCL injury.

The team seems to usually announce these things around the same time the lineup drops. Wong has been activated, and Jace Peterson takes his place on the 10-day IL with a thumb issue. That seems rather ... convenient? Stearns and Jace met earlier today. Jace said he was feeling great. Stearns went in for what appeared to be one of those two-handed handshakes, but instead used it to violently twist Jace's thumb while asking "How about now?". On a slightly more serious note, he did have the same Cryotherapy treatment just before the season that Braun used to get. So while it's convenient, it probably isn't entirely a phantom issue. But it is one way to keep him around a little while longer should another injury occur.

The team seems to usually announce these things around the same time the lineup drops.

I think, if rotation doesn't change, we're due to face one of the Marlins lefties in the series on the 26th-28th, and IIRC also Urias or Kershaw in the series after. Not done the maths myself, just recall reading that it currently lined up that way. But yeah, that's a long time without facing a single lefty starter.

Wong being activated will mean Peterson gets DFAd. Yelich being activated will mean Taylor getting optioned, both those things should happen by the end of the weekend. Now, Cain coming off the IL is where it gets interesting. They could option Hiura if he's still struggling, and use McKinney and Vogelbach at 1B. If they keep Hiura on the 26-man, then I would think they're more eager to keep McKinney over Vogelbach, as much as I think they like his approach. Being limited to 1B only would count against Diesel Dan. I don't think keeping a 12-man pitching staff is a realistic option anymore. I would expect they'll want to keep McKinney, even without getting too caught up in his current hot streak. JBJ could opt out after this year (Right now I hope he does. But it's still very early), Garcia has an expensive option, Cain will be a year older. Having another cheap in-house option with some upside for LF/RF/1B is surely something they want. Yelich, Cain, McKinney, Taylor is a solid foundation for a 2022 OF, with the choice to retain Garcia if they want to. It's kinda funny how these things happen. If Fisher doesn't get injured, I suspect he gets the roster spot over McKinney; being CF-capable and having been actively traded for.

I too would love more information. But there is at least this, scouting reports on 10 prospects including 2 Brewers. I suspect it's subscriber only though https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/66274/tuesday-morning-ten-pack-bobby-miller-jarred-kelenic-brennen-davis/ Talks about Ashby; Impressive movement on all his pitches, just needs to keep his slider and curve separate. Says the whiff ability will decide whether he's a mid-rotation or back-end starter. Also talks about a Brewer I had never heard of! John LaRossa, signed out of indie ball last year. 96-97 mph with life, and an impressive slider. The Brewers Indie ball pitcher project continues!