Lathund

It's an unusual pitch mix for sure, in that these days you'd generally pair curveballs with 4-seamers, many of them up in the zone. So I could very well imagine they try changing his pitch usage around to get a more cohesive mix. Not quite sure how though, as his curve certainly seems his best pitch, but he's not exactly a guy you'd expect to have the 4-seamer to pair it with. So it'll be interest what, if anything, changes.

The "innings puzzle" that all teams will have to solve this year can be solved in many ways, like 6-man rotations, or 5-man rotations with short starts and more long relief, piggybacks etc. Remains to be seen what the best way is, and what teams choose to do. But what I do believe, is that the Brewers are very well equipped for this. Short starts and long relief has been their method for several years now. Not pushing starters had probably been done for both health and performance (Both third time through the order penalty, and high pitch counts negatively affecting the next start are real issues) reasons. It will this year be more about health than anything else, but the point is that the Brewers have more experience than many other teams in doing it, and have gotten their pitchers to buy into it. Keeping a team fresh for a whole season to come on strong in September, and making use of every last roster spot are Stearns/CC trademarks. I don't expect it's some massive advantage, but already having experience with this should at least be worth something. Also just in general, while I don't care too much for spring training stats and would rather look at how player arrived there, I do think overall it has been a positive. Yelich looks like himself, Urias looks like a hitter, Robertson looks like a competent utility man, Wong looks good, Cain (in a limited sample) looks like he'll be a contributor, Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Anderson look like the core of a strong rotation. There are a few negatives too, but more positives than negatives and no serious injuries to key players. This will be a good season for the Brewers!

I think we'll only know the motivation based on when/if he gets called back up again. The minor league season won't have started by the time the service time for an extra year will have passed, if he gets called up the day after that it's kind of suspect. If he actually gets AAA playing time, and gets everyday at bats for a while before coming back up, it's probably legit about needing more development.

Urias starting so many games at SS recently hopefully means they'll be going with him as the primary guy at SS to start the season. I mean it might mean something else entirely too, but that's just what I hope. Arcia is looking as bad as ever at the plate (Not just results-wise, but in terms of his swing, and what he swings at etc) while Urias is looking pretty good.

He did well. 6 baserunners in 5 1/3 IP will usually yield fewer runs than that, just a matter of sequencing. Other than the HR there wasn't much in the way of hard contact.

I feel that the rotation depth is actually pretty good compared to most teams. I don't know if it'll be Suter or Rasmussen or if it'll be someone from the minors (Lauer, Bettinger, Brown). Might not be overly exciting, but have a look at what most other teams run out as their 7th or 8th starters, and I think most of them would wish they had a Suter there. There aren't as many good starters out there as we tend to think, past the first 3-4 most teams are pretty bad. And then there's teams like the Dodgers... but they're hardly the norm.

I'm pretty sure they consider everything. He's been moved to the bullpen before, after all. Over the last several years I've learned to trust their pitcher evaluations. With the data they have and what they see from him (Or what they *don't* see from the other options perhaps) they see him as a starter. I don't know what exactly drives that, but I would think it has to do with his abilities as a groundball pitcher. There are 106 pitchers with 150+ innings over the last two years, among them Houser has the 4th highest groundball %, the 7th lowest average exit velocity given up, the lowest maximum EV given up, the 14th best barrel %. Point is, he keeps the ball on the ground and he limits hard contact. With upgraded infield defense, I would imagine they like that profile. Houser's issue so far in his career has been that he dominates righties, but gets crushed by lefties. So finding something that works against lefties is something he needs to do as a starter, or he'll just face lineups full of LHH. From the little I've seen of him in spring so far, I haven't seen evidence that he has found that yet. But if the Brewers braintrust thinks he can, I'm all for it.

I'm not overly worried about Cain. Even in 2019 the statcast data told a different story, he was hitting the ball well. And even when you look at just outcomes, his GG defense was enough to put up a 3 WAR (Per BBref) season. With JBJ in the fold, the team also don't need to have Cain play while hurt like he did for a lot of 2019. Do something similar to the planned rest days that Braun had, and I expect Cain will have a solid year even if it's not MVP candidate levels like in 2015 and 2018.

Not me. This is what I think it will look like. C: Narvaez, Pina 1B: Hiura, Vogelbach 2B: Wong SS: Urias 3B: Shaw OF: Yelich, Cain, Garcia, JBJ UT: Robertson, Arcia This is my take on it as well. It's possible that McKinney (Or Fisher, had he been healthy) could get a spot over Vogelbach, but I think Big Dan is more likely.

Remember Walker Buehlers tweet after Justin Turner re-signed with the Dodgers? Yeah, maybe he should've been scared. Beautiful to watch that douche get tagged like this.

This year, Taylor has an option, which means he will be available for whenever one of the OFs on the roster goes on the IL; Which will happen, several times. It always does. If you were to do something stupid like release Cain, then Taylor would be on the roster... but there would be no Taylor to call on when injuries happen. This is unfortunate for Taylor of course, but I'm fairly certain he'll still see 150plate appearances or so. And can we also recognize that while Taylor looks like a useful player (I certainly think so anyway), he has performed well over a grand total of 54 MLB plate appearances, and is now doing well over 40 or so plate appearances in spring training. In his last full minor league season he was a below average hitter. It's really not unreasonable to not hand him an opening day spot. Also both Garcia (Team option) and JBJ (Opt-out) may be gone in 2022. And Cain is yet another year older. That's another reason to keep Taylor around, in addition to what he will do this year.

Speaking of Clay Davenport, I gave Brewers 4 wins and took away 2 from the Cubs today. Well, sort of. I had been curious about how the Brewers in his projections were projected for 54 WARP and the Reds 36, Cardinals 46 and Cubs 42, yet the division was projected with Brewers at 81 wins and the others 80. So I mailed Clay and asked what was behind that. Turns out part of it was a bug in the system which included defense for the WARP totals, but not for the calculations for team standings, which changed things. He also pointed out another factor; That the extra WAR(P) that high leverage relievers get, doesn't add to the team projection totals to the same degree. And of course with Hader and Williams in there, that applies to the Brewers more than almost any other team.

That's a lot of money indeed. I can only imagine they have reason to believe his offensive breakout (Even if not to the tune of 160 wRC+ going forward) is real, or else it makes little sense. The likely introduction of the electronic strike zone probably plays into it too, as he's a poor defensive catcher overall thanks to awful framing, but good in the other aspects.

I think 13 pitchers is to be expected and so it's what I went with below, but it's not certain. The below is what I expect to see, but what I want to see doesn't really differ from that in any meaningful way. C: Pina, Narvaez 1B: Hiura, Vogelbach 2B: Wong 3B: Shaw, Robertson SS: Urias, Arcia OF: Yelich, Cain, Garcia, JBJ I was quite intrigued by Fisher, but with 4 OF "starters" ahead of him and not playing 1B, I'm not sure it's a great roster fit. But it's Fisher, McKinney or Vogey for the last spot. That roster spot is probably the only one up in the air atm. Some player(s) starting on the IL, or a very unlikely optioning of an optionable player (Hiura, Urias or Arcia) are the only things that could possibly change it. And I seriously doubt they option either of those. Taylor would be first man up in case of OF injuries. Reyes is infield depth. Wonder if they'll try to sneak Nottingham through waivers or if a trade is in the making. Maile, with his option, would be the backup in case of injuries. Pitching roles will be fluid, but will list 6 SPs whether it's as a 6-man rotation or some kind of piggyback like with Anderson/Burnes last year. Either way, more then 5 will see starter-type usage by design, even before injuries or underperformance. SP: Woodruff, Burnes, Anderson, Lindblom, Houser, Peralta RP: Hader, Williams, Suter, Rasmussen, Topa, two from Boxberger/Yardley/Black/Feyereisen So it's really only the last two spots up in the air. I would personally go with Feyereisen (based on performance) and Black (If he's ever healthy I still want to see what he can do) and option Yardley and let Boxberger either opt out or start the season at the alternate site. But I could see them going several different ways here. They could even go with an extra position player early on and rotate the various optionable relievers here with Perdomo, Bickford and Lauer to cover the innings.

There's a Perez in LF, I can only imagine it's Hedbert. Probably only going to get one plate appearance, but excited to see it.

Overall a good outing for Lindblom. 3 walks isn't ideal, but at the same time this was against basically the entire starting lineup (Pollock instead of Beatty the only missing piece I think?) of the best team in the majors. Didn't have his curveball, but made it work anyway.

I'm not a believer in Arcia. Yes, 2020 saw some actual underlying improvements like a slightly better strikeout rate, and better hard contact/barrel rates, so it wasn't necessarily just "doing the same thing but with better results" as some previous good stretches (Though I'd be wary of the small sample when it comes to the barrel stats). And there's a chance it's the start of something better. But he was still a groundball machine (Tied for the league lead in GIDP) with the same (to me, anyway) poor hitting mechanics as always. And I don't think he's the kind of defender who can justify poor hitting. And his speed is trending in a worrying direction when it comes to future value on defense and in the running game. I hope to be wrong, but I don't think I am. All that being said, I don't think there is any reason to completely "move on" from Arcia; I also don't think many people are suggesting it. With Mathias out for several months you'd at least want Arcia for depth if nothing else. Even if you believe in Urias (I do) and want him as the primary shortstop, there's still place for Arcia on the bench. And if you *really* don't believe in Arcia he still has minor league options remaining. The team doesn't have to commit to one or the other. Both can be optioned, and at least Urias has experience at 2B and 3B as well. Keep both, see how they perform, assign playing time accordingly. Option one if necessary. But for opening day, I fully expect Arcia, Urias and Robertson all on the roster. They're not going to roll with just one SS/2B/3B option on the bench. They probably really like what they see from Reyes, but since he is on a minor league deal they can always wait and see if he's needed before removing someone else from the 40-man.

40-man status and options will decide some of these battles. For example, Ashby and Reyes won't be on the 40-man (barring a series of injuries) even if the Brewers were to really like them and expected them to contribute in 2021. You can start with an out of options guy on the 26-man, and cut/IL him if needed due to performance/injury and bring up an Ashby or Reyes. You can't do it the other way around. So it basically needs to be crystal clear that the non 40-man guy is a better option. And yeah, absolutely no way Lindblom gets DFAd before the season.

Not in favor of the big, drastic swing changes when something is mostly working already. I'm not anyone who knows anything about swing mechanics, but it seems to me that if the lower body isn't involved much, working on getting some more power from the legs seems a good way to go. Could add power without really messing with the swing itself. If it does, then you're golden. If it doesn't , then you can consider more changes. Just do a little at a time, to not risk wholesale changes that could mess things up.

I am pulling for him too but you have to watch the ABs. They are much better than what I remember of him in 2019. In a very small sample size, he's 2-11. The game against the Angels the other day, he had a rocket that was hit to the shifted 2B right behind the base. Give him that hit and he's all of a sudden his AVG is at .273 instead of .182. Additionally, he had a line drive double down the line in RF yesterday. The approach is very promising. From what I recall, his 2019 ST gave us a real indication of what was coming. He had a strikeout rate that would embarrass Keon Broxton from what I remember. So as you say, the fact that his at bats look good is very promising, even if it's "just" ST. Still too early for the stats to mean anything of course, we'll see once sample size gets a bit bigger and they start seeing more plate appearances against the major league roster pitchers.

The issue with having both Cain and Wong up there is that while they get on base, their overall offensive production is unlikely to be more than slightly above average, at best. Having one table setter is fine, but if the second one is normally your 6th or so best hitter, he'll get 70 more PAs than he "should", while the players he pushes back lose the same amount combined. OBP in the #2 spot is actually one of the major arguments for why Yelich should hit there, as he's very likely to have the highest OBP on the team, and so you get runners on base in the first inning without giving additional plate appearances to worse hitters. Part of the issue with having the best hitter in the #3 spot is that while he does get runners on base in the 1st a lot, #3 is also the spot that comes up to the plate with two ours and nobody on more often than any other position, and those are the least valuable plate appearances there are. If the goal is to maximize RBI opportunities for Yelich in the 1st, then you're better of batting him 4th. If the goal is to score more runs overall, you'd want him 2nd or even leading off (Though I wouldn't do that) rather than 3rd. The usual caveat applies though, that it makes very little difference. The difference between anything remotely sensible (Like sorting the hitters by descending OBP or something) and the optimal lineup is a couple runs over the course of a season. Whether Yelich hits 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th will make even less of a difference.

The .751 OPS is for all position players, not 3B. I never disagreed that he was a useful player for a while, just that the claim that he was an above average hitter wasn't true. And has nothing to do with me having some unusually high "average bar", simply comparing him to... the average.

I don't know. That .730 OPS he put up in 400 ABs in 2016 would have looked damn good on last year's Brewers bench. He had 13 HRs and a .272 batting average that year. If that isn't even close to "above average", you have a very high "average" bar. A 90 wRc+ which he had in 2016 is by definition below average. Low OBP but high (comparatively) slugging guys look better with OPS, but even then the league average (non-pitchers) that year was .751, for an OPS+ of 91. If someone's best season as a hitter is below average, he's not an above average hitter. He also never came close to those numbers before or after 2016. Above average for a super utility man? I haven't studied their numbers in detail, but he might be. But that wasn't the claim.

Signings are usually "pending a physical". This year, there are Covid routines (Short quarantine, negative covid test) before they can join the ST complex. Which is where the physical will be done, I assume. So there will be a delay between the time a deal is agreed and the actual signing. Has generally been the case for signings this offseasn, longer delay than usual between reports of a done deal and official announcement. In some cases also due to needing to sort out the 40-man roster spot too, but many have been for Covid reasons.

He was more passive at the start of the 2018 and 2019 seasons as well, before dialling in and starting to swing more. 2020 was an even more extreme version of that, and he never really got out of it. What makes me not worry about him though is that while strikeouts are concerning, he also walked 7% more than his career average for the same reasons he struck out more. What held him back was a BABIP almost 100 points lower than his career average, despite hitting the ball harder than ever. Basically with even average luck, you'd ahve expected a BA (And thus OBP) 50+ points higher, and all of a sudden he's having a great season. I think some of the passivity is warranted in that he's getting fewer pitches in the zone than almost anyone. Just needs to find that balance again, which I'm sure he will. The fact that he already transformed as a hitter once tells me he's capable of adjusting even more.