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Lathund

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Everything posted by Lathund

  1. Lathund
    I'm sure that'll do wonders for his appeal. Of course, the point of appeals isn't so much to actually change the ban, but it helps the team do things like use a reliever 2-3 days in a row and then drop the appeal, "suspending" the player on days he wouldn't pitch anyway.
  2. Lathund
    Urias now leads MLB in walks. The hits will come too eventually, but until then having that ability to still consistently get on base along with seemingly very good defense at SS is still very useful.
  3. Lathund
    Yes, Jace Peterson is also good at drawing walks. They can be as interchangable or as bad as you like them to be, doesn't change the fact that the bolded statement is plainly not true.
  4. Lathund
    Robertson’s BABIP is .133. Even if he got that up to his career norm of .303 he’d still be a .250 hitter with no power, and no real ability to draw walks. He’s probably safe only because his $900k guarantee but his skill set is 100% interchangeable with Peterson, Gordon-Strange or whatever veteran infielder is currently sitting home without a contract. Eh? The man has a 11.4% career walk rate. Whatever his other faults may be, the man at least knows how to take walks.
  5. Lathund
    Yes, I think there's very little chance he gets sent down before then. And who knows, maybe he'll cut down a bit on the swings and misses by the time that happens. We'll have to see. Also I looked at some stats today. And the feeling that Hiura swings through everything is reflected in there; His 21% swinging strike rate is 11th worst (min. 20 PA) in MLB and contact % of 60% is 15th worst. But leading both of those categories, with 28% and 48% respectively is Javier Baez. Oof.
  6. Lathund
    It's two starts, against the team with the #1 pick in the upcoming draft. xFIP and Statcast's xERA are both at ~5.3, DRA is 6.16 (DRA- of 134), WHIP of 1.42, velocity is down even from last year. He hasn't been particularly good, he just hasn't given up much in the way of runs. I think the 4.50-4.90 or so ERA that the projections have him for seems reasonable. He's declining, but has a good defense around him and probably knows how to make the most of that.
  7. Lathund
    There have been a few games these last few years where the Brewers have emptied the bench for pinch hitters in the 9th inning when trailing, resulting in lacking middle infielders. Made me wish even more than usual that they'd tie the game to see just exactly what they'd do, and who would play SS in those cases.
  8. Lathund
    He was always a solid defender. Not the flashiest, or someone who would make those throws from his knees outside the foul line like Arenado, but a very accurate thrower. But yeah, made some really good plays so far this year. It is still very early, but I think the encouraging part is that in 2019 and 2020 his contact rate tanked, and thus swinging strike rate soared. This year, so far, he's much, much better than even in 2018 and 2019 in those categories. Now we shouldn't expect the current 152 wRC+ to continue, it is after all very, very early still and his BABIP will get down closer to his career numbers. But it's very encouraging that both the plate discipline stats, the statcast batted ball data and the eye test all suggest basically the same thing so far; that at the very least he's much closer to 2017-2018 Shaw than he is 2019-2020.
  9. Lathund
    Not a lot of middle infielders in AAA (or AA) after Mathias and Lopes went on the IL and Arcia was traded. Some AAA depth is useful.
  10. Lathund
    It has been frustrating to watch so far, but it's still so early where you can't trust most numbers. Like there is a .250 spread between highest and lowest team BABIP in the league; looking over the most recent full seasons the gap has been more like 40, and more like 20 if you take away the very top and bottom teams. Flyball % is between 23% and 46%, HR/FB rates range from 3% to 24%. The spread for those same numbers in 2019 was 30-39% and 11-20%. Infield flyball rate has a span of 3%-20%, while in 2019 the span was 4% between top and bottom. Those were just some batted ball stats I looked at to illustrate that it's still so early. Teams have only faced two other teams, 6 different starters. They've played in one or two different stadiums. One really good or one really bad game will account for 1/6 of their stats and have a huge impact on the totals. They're still figuring out their rosters, players with injury-shortened ST are still finding their feet. The list goes on and on. I have some things I worry a bit about with the Brewers offense, but by and large I'll just wait until the stats even start to give a representative sample of a team, much less a player. Once some of that randomness is gone, then I'll start to really consider the state of it. But when full-time players batting averages can still move 50 points in either direction based of just one at bat, the overall numbers don't really mean much. Can still watch at bats and draw some conclusions from that, but even our evaluations of that are affected by the outcomes.
  11. Lathund
    Got a Sobotka, got an Omar... I don't think there is a McNulty available. Needed to sign Mitch "Bunk" Moreland in the offseason, or trade for Josh "Stringer" Bell.
  12. Lathund
    It's an (almost) annual tradition for the Cubs to fire their hitting coach while making no changes to their lineup. That they didn't fire theirs before this year is probably the clearest sign that they're not really trying all that hard, their CFAR (Coaches Fired Above Replacement) was unusually low.
  13. Lathund
    I don't think Kyle Hendricks is intentionally plunking anyone, he's just about the last pitcher in the league I'd expect that from. Maybe when a reliever comes in, but tbh I doubt that as well. EDIT: He actually has more HBP than I thought he did, which surprised me with his command. But still, doesn't seem the hot-headed or angry type at all.
  14. Lathund
    More than I expected in return for Arcia. Sobotka will be another of those hard throwers who teams think/hope they can "fix". I think the Brewers are one of the most likely teams to do so, but chances are probably pretty slim regardless. Weigel looks a lot more intriguing, even if a mid-rotation ceiling seems likely. If either one is even an average middle reliever, 5-6 years of that is more valuable to the team than 2 years of Arcia. Perfectly fine with the return. Neither over- or underwhelmed, just cromulently whelmed.
  15. Lathund
    The timing of it is quite odd, you'd have thought if they were looking to trade him it would've been this offseason. If this is a move to get another pitcher onto the 26-man (Since they can't recall an optioned player yet without an injury, they need to add a non-roster guy), and so couldn't just option him, it seems risky to rely on finding a trade to make that happen. You also wonder that with him starting the last two games, if this was a sudden development. Or perhaps they wanted to show he could play 3rd? Anyway, I wish Orlando the best. Seemed like a fun character, and provided some very memorable moments. But overall, he just didn't play well enough. Half expected him to be non-tendered this offseason (I suspect he would've been if he hadn't agreed to a pay cut), but still surprised about the timing. Could well be something more to it, but no use speculating. As for the return, when it says 2 pitchers I suspect it's a couple of intriguing low-level arms, like the Phelps/Adam Lind deals. Honestly just happy to get something at all in return for someone who is just slightly above replacement level.
  16. Lathund
    Tonight is where the Brewers offense jumpstarts their season, chasing Williams early and feasting on the Cubs bullpen.
  17. Lathund
    Unless Shaw is hurt I see absolutely no reason to start Arcia at third against a righty. 16 plate appearances really shouldn't change that. Arcia looked terrible in ST and so far this season, showing no signs of the improvements we saw in 2020. Now, if he goes on to homer in his first at bat, I'll take the credit, thanks.
  18. Lathund
    Bingo. A few years back it was Cameron Roegner at #1.
  19. Lathund
    I think trading for an expensive rental only makes sense in a few very lmited scenarios, like if the Brewers somehow look like genuine WS contenders at the deadline but SS is a black hole. And even then I'd be very wary of including the very top prospects in an already thin system. As far as trades go, I would only really give up top prospects for long-term trades. Yelich obviously springs to mind, Chris Sale is another one. They can also go wrong (Shelby Miller for example), but it's a much sounder strategy overall. There are always cheap rentals at the deadline who will improve the team for much less. Let's see what a healthy Urias can do, I'm encouraged by his improvement throughout ST (As well as his minors pedigree). I for one believe we'll see league average or better production from SS, and any trade talk will be focused on other parts of the team.
  20. Lathund
    We may never lose again.
  21. Lathund
    Also the Cubs lost to the Pirates at Wrigley. Pirates had 9 hits and 11 walks against Kyle Hendricks and 7 relievers, while the Cubs mustered 2 hits and 4 walks.
  22. Lathund
    What a way to start the season. Also I remember when Hader got 8 straight Ks in relief against the Reds, today took me back to that.
  23. Lathund
    I think Yelich is 3rd due to L-R-L, and will be 2nd with Cain/Urias or another RHH leading of against LHP. We'll have to wait for a lefty starter to find out.
  24. Lathund
    NL Central Standings: Brewers 89-73 Cardinals 84-78 Cubs 82-80 Reds 80-82 Pirates 70-92 Most Valuable Player: Christian Yelich will be close to 2018-2019 Yelich. Cy Young: Brandon Woodruff. I'm a big believer in Burnes and Peralta as well, but I just think Woodruff will take it much thanks to consistency and a higher workload. Most Surpringing Player: Luis Urias will put up a 3-4 WAR season thanks to above average offense and average defense at SS. That'll be more than Trent Grisham does. Most Disappointing Player: Jackie Bradley Jr. Will put up his usual good defense, but will be overshadowed by Cain on both offense and defense, and by Garcia offensively. Won't be great, won't be terrible. Just not what we had hoped for. Under the Radar Player to Watch: Daniel Robertson. Will have displaced Arcia as the primary SS backup and 3B platoon partner relatively early on. .250/.360./400 with adequate defense. Rookie of the Year: J.P Feyereisen will be one of the better middle relievers in the league, and will be part of the Williams-Hader shutdown train when leading.
  25. Lathund
    ST boxscore pitch counts aren't actual pitch counts. It just adds pitches based on the events that have happened. So 3 strikes for every strikeout, 4 balls for every walk, 1 strike for every hit or out on a ball in play and so on.
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