Lathund

Run differential is better on average than actual record at predicting rest of season record. But two things to note there; "better" doesn't necessarily mean "good". And that while it will do better on average, it doesn't necessarily translate to individual teams. The teams with the best RDs in the league are probably pretty good, the teams with the worst ones are probably not very good. But beyond that you can't really tell much. Is a team with +30 better than one with +15? Maybe, maybe not. Teams handle leads/deficits differently in terms of pitcher usage, teams use position players differently in blowouts (And blowouts themselves don't really seem to follow baseball logic; like the 2020 Brewers with their bad offense winning 19-0 and 18-3 within the space of one week. And losing 0-12 inbetween), teams have had different schedules and faced different pitchers, rosters change throughout the season and so on and so forth. At this point in the season, projections are still a lot more meaningful than season-to-date stats. Something like BaseRuns, which is to Run Differential what Run Differential is to W-L record is useful too. I think taking all of these things into account, as well as strength of schedule and injury situation is needed really. Any one of them in isolation won't tell you much. Or to get back more specifically to the previous post: At the end of the year, RD does correlate well with W-L record. But there have still been WS winners with negative RD, and teams with superb run differentials that didn't make the playoffs. EDIT: I see sveum beat me to it. And included some actual sources!

The fact that Hiura is struggling at MLB level with his slightly lower strikeout rate should be an argument againt Green, not for. And if he's potentially struggling due to missing 2020, then keep him in AAA and see what's what. 2019 AAA was one of the most extreme hitter-friendly environments ever, counting stats from that year are almost pointless. Minor league stats need context when trying to translate them to MLB. Adding him to the 40-man to cover for a 10-day IL stint doesn't make much sense. Maybe you audition him if Hiura continues to struggle and goes down again, assuming they haven't traded for someone first, but now would not be the time.

Yes, the offense is absolutely better than they have shown. Still not great, but good enough given the pitching and defense. We've had a tough schedule while the Cardinals and especialyl the Cubs (Easiest in all of MLB per baseball reference) have had it easier. We now have a relatively soft month, while the Cubs have a tough June. By xFIP and SIERA, two of the best predictive stats out there, Cardinals have the worst pitching staff in MLB. Now I don't necessarily buy that it's quite that bad, and good defense will cover for some of it, but having the 5th lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate isn't a recipe for success. So I see no reason to change my prediction of Brewers winning the division, and this next month should start showing why.

I wonder if spin rate really means anything? It always gets thrown out when talking about someone like Verlander, but is there any real correlation between spin rate and success? I just did a quick search at Baseball Savant, and if I am using the search engine correctly, the MLB pitcher with the highest spin rate on 4-seam fastballs in MLB last year (minimum 300 pitches) was CORBIN BURNES at a remarkable 2656 rpm. #2 = Jose Leclerc, #3 = Mike Minor, #4 = Lucas Sims, #5 = Felipe Vazquez. There are some big names near the top....#8 = Verlander, #11 = Cole, #12 = Darvish...but there is a Phil Maton or a Jesse Biddle mixed in with every good name on the list. There are a ton of fields in the search engine so I could very well be screwing something up. Am I the only one who has noticed that every time a pitcher does great, the first thing they talk about is his marvelous spin rate. Meanwhile, if a pitcher is doing poorly, then spin rate is not mentioned (even if the pitcher's spin rate is excellent). BTW, when I posted the above Burnes had just finished his 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 1.84 WHIP season in which he could not even survive in AAA. Anyway, the spin rate numbers didn't seem to do much for Lindblom. I have a very strong suspicion that location, location, location will trump spin rate every time. Those high spin rate pitches end up right in the hitter's wheelhouse, and over the fence they go. Again, see the 2019 version of Corbin Burnes. Spin rates (and the role that sticky substances play in achieving those spin rates) are a huge part of why the strikeout rate has soared in recent years. It's what creates much of the late movement on curveballs and sliders, and what gives "rise" to 4-seamers, which also increases their perceived velocity. It's not like it's the only thing that matters, but then again noone has ever claimed that. If you want to talk about Burnes we could start with the fact that his spin rates are even higher now than in 2019. But it's kind of missing the point with him, because looking at spin rate in isolation doesn't tell you the whole truth. Burnes issue with his 4-seamer was that while the raw spin rate was high, it was mostly gyroscopic spin and not backspin. He had that natural cut on his 4-seamer, which made it a poor 4-seamer because it didn't have the rise of a 4-seamer (And was harder to command), but not enough cut to be useful. One solution to that is to refine it to have more pure backspin (Like what Trevor Bauer pioneered), another is to lean into the cut and make it a proper Cutter which is what he did. His slider that year was one of the best in the league (And had one of the highest spin rates), but when you can't rely on your fastball your slider won't be effective. And he didn't have anything against lefties. Raw spin rates don't mean much, the axis of that spin (and thus how much of that spin is active) matters more. And then it's a matter of using that spin correctly. A 4-seamer up in the zone is better the more backspin it has. It's how you get those swings at the top of the zone with the ball even above that. It all interacts with things like approach angle; The same 4-seamer with the same spin thrown from a lower release point (Low arm slot, short pitcher, long stride) will be even better up in the zone. But that high spin rate doesn't help anywhere near as much, and might even hurt you, at the bottom of the zone. Whereas for a sinker, a high arm slot from a tall pitcher with a short stride makes it better the lower it is, and a lower spin rate will help give it more sink. Anyway, one can really go down the rabbit hole on this stuff. The point I'm trying to make is that spin rates are hugely impactful, but they're complicated. Their effect varies based on pitch type, and how those pitches are used. The effect spin rate has on a fastball is due to the Magnus effect, but there are also other forces in play which affect movement; can go read about Seam-shifted wake (SSW) if you're interested; it's likely a big part of Brandon Woodruff's success with the 2-seamer. That some bad pitchers have high spin rates doesn't tell you anything. I also don't know who "they" are. Broadcasters like Rock will be given some data about spin rates and launch angle and won't know what it means. Most writers don't have a clue either. Eno Sarris is a name to look up if you want to read about all things pitch design. The MVP Machine, largely focusing on Trevor Bauer, is a good book for some insights too. Or, a TL;DR crash course in the effect on spin rate, have a look at Trevor Bauer's baseball savant page. Look at the spin rate changes between 2019 and 2020-2021, and then compare the results. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-bauer-545333?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

The risk with Green is a 39% strikeout rate in AAA this year, and lower but still in the mid-30s in previous years. That's not the kind of profile that carries over the same kind of production as you move up to MLB. Hager has mashed in AAA so far this year and is already on the 40-man, seems like a sensible option to cover for a short IL stint. Don't make roster moves if you don't have to, we saw during the injury crisis that those spots can become precious. EDIT: Of course, since it's an injury replacement, then Tyrone Taylor would be an option too if they feel like the 6 infielders they've got is enough to get by with.

The worry about JBJ is that he can't hit offspeed stuff. For some reason the AL East didn't really exploit that, whereas this year he's seeing more curves and sliders than ever before. So even if he reverts closer to his career norms, the larger share of breaking balls will still mean his numbers are down.

Sinus infections are usually not very lengthy or serious affairs, but in some cases they're extremely difficult to treat, due to mainly the poor blood flow to the area, meaning that the antibiotics will be inefficient. But yeah, it could also be a fairly normal sinus infection that held him out for a while, and then had him in extended spring training to work on something. Or a new injury we haven't heard about. Or personal matters. Could be anything really.

Yes, I remember posters on here being quite upset about it.

Between all levels of play, Urias has 3300 innings at 2B, 700 at 3B (Including 176 with the Brewers last year). He doesn't need to go to Nashville to work on that. Urias is also (most likely) the best bat of the three. I think the chances that he gets optioned are very, very slim. And my bad on Peterson and waivers, forgot he went straight to the IL. Point still stands about their relative standing in the offseason though.

I disagree, I think Robertson is the more likely to remain out of the two. He had 850 PAs of being a roughly league average bat (97 wRC+) before joining the Brewers, that still carries more weight than 40 poor PAs with inconsistent playing time. Peterson has been a 77 wRC+ hitter before 2021. There's also the aspect of what will happen when the players are exposed to waivers. Peterson has signed minor-league deals the last two years and already passed through waivers once this year. Robertson signed a major-league deal at above the minimum; meaning other teams were interested. The one thing in Jace's favor is that he is indeed a lefty. But right now with Wong, Shaw and Vogelbach in the infield, and Adames being a reverse splits guy, they probably want a RHH more than a lefty. Overall, I think they'll want to give Robertson more time to show whether the early-season struggles are a fluke or not before they cut bait. If they preferred Peterson to him, I think that's who they would've activated him already. He's already played 12 AAA games, after a fairly short layoff for a minor injury. He has been ready for a while.

Depends on what kind of success. I think his stuff alone, even if he remains as wild (5 BB/9) as he is now, means he'll likely stick in a MLB bullpen for the foreseeable future. But is he a dominant late-inning guy like he looked to start the season? Having watched his every MLB outing so far, I have my doubts about that. If you split the difference between the statcast xERA and FIP/xFIP he is a mid-3s ERA type guy this year. Which is good, but not elite. But I don't think it was so much about any concerns over him, just a case of needing to give up something good to get a good player in return. I think the Rays are one of the organizations least likely to overpay for "hype", but even so there would be at least some degree of "selling high" on J.P. Sometimes it doesn't click for players until relatively late, that could be the case for him, but there's also a very good chance there is not. And when someone is a relief-only prospect who spends 6+ years in the minors with good but not great numbers, that often (but not always!) tells us something. We don't know who else TB were interested in if JP was off the table, but I can certainly see why the Brewers would rather give up a bullpen piece, albeit a seemingly good one, over a higher-impact and higher-ceiling guy. I agree that this is a likely win-win type of situation. Adames has put up 6-8 WAR over ~2 full seasons worth of PAs and is 25. Richards looks like a useful, if low-ceiling, pitcher. The Brewers side of it is very likely to be good. For the Rays it's almost like playing with house money. They have 3 top 100 middle infield prospects in AAA (Franco, Walls, Brujan) and another (Edwards) a bit further away. If even one of them pans out, they are as good or better than they were with Adames, and so any return they got for Adames goes straight into the win column. So even if that ends up "only" being two controllable middle relievers, the Rays are an organization who knows how to make the most out of that. The Rays long-term strategy of always infusing talent even when it means "selling" while contending is painful at the start, but do it for 5+ years and you'll always have replacements coming through. This trade is a defensive upgrade at SS, and it also frees up Urias to be the injury replacement for Wong, to improve offense from 3B over Shaw, improve infield defense when needed (Urias at 3B, Shaw 1B) and to still probably get some starts at SS against lefties. So it upgrades multiple positions, and Richards makes up for some of the lost bullpen production. And having seen Adames over the last couple of days, I feel even more positive than I did when it happened. Like I didn't really worry about his 2021 numbers, but you never really know when you just have a stat line to base it on. Having seen him and his approach at the plate, I very much buy that he is the career 102 wRC+ guy and not the 80 of this year. Rasmussen is the real prize TB got back though. He, too, is not a sure thing by any means. Two TJS already, some command/meatball issues, it carries risk. But also tremendous upside if he stays healthy and improves command even a little.

One way to put this into context: Adames has put up 6-8 WAR (Depending on fWAR or rWAR) in almost exactly 2 full seasons worth of PAs. 6 fWAR is exactly what the Brewers have gotten from the SS position from 2010 until today. Remains to be seen how well he plays going forward ofc, but he's 25 so no reason (other than Andy Haines, depending on your belief in his powers) to think he won't. I'm starting to like this more and more tbh. I still would've liked to have done it while keeping Rasmussen, but trading relievers for everyday players is a good way to go about it.

No? We have a LHH 3B and LHH 2B, and Urias plays those positions well. Adames is also a RHH with reverse splits. Urias should play plenty still. Baseball isn't a game where 8 (or 9) players play the same position every game for 162 games, you need more than just your "starters".

I don't think Stearns necessarily likes Weigel and Sobotka more than Rasmussen and Feyereisen; I think it's just the matter of needing to give up something good to get something good. And I think he (correctly) believes that the Brewers can acquire and develop relievers.

Adames has a 103 wRC+ for his career (Can compare to Arcia's 71 and Urias 78) and is a good defender, so I don't really understand the comments about it not being an upgrade offensively. Freeing up Urias to play some 3B (and Shaw to play some 1B) makes the team better too. So overall I see the benefits. What I'm less happy about though is that while offense is offense regardless of how it comes about, adding another strikeout prone player (~30% for his career) might not be what we need. I'm generally in favor of getting controllable (Free agent after 2024) position players for relievers so I don't mind too much, but I would've liked to see Rasmussen stay. Kind of feels a bit rushed to make this trade now, but at the same time I had also been wanting to see something done so guess I can't complain when it does happen. Seen a bunch of comments saying Adames is basically their Arcia, clubhouse-wise, so that's good at least.

It's a tiny sample size still, but Erceg has hit well so far this year. Walking more and striking out (a lot) less. and not just BABIP magic. Interesting how it's happening just as he's getting back on the mound too. It's encouraging that Keston is getting results, not least of all from a confidence standpoint I'm sure. But the strikeout rate is still 36%, and a .667 BABIP isn't exactly sustainable. I wanna see it come down before getting him back up there. Then again I'm not watching his at bats, it's such a small sample that even getting squeezed by the ump a few times would have an impact. Some at bats that end up in a strikeout can have a lot of positives still, while some (most) won't. And it's not like we have a wealth of 1B options...

My issue with Green isn't age, it's that he has strikeout rates of 33%, 35% and 37% (this year) in his last three AAA campaigns. Makes me think it'll be tough to carry over that OPS to the majors. At this point it might not hurt to try him anyway, but we should really temper our expectations.

I think there is a chance they go with two "utility" guys, with McKinney (or Taylor, but he's getting a lot of starts) gone. The reason I think that is because with Hiura in AAA, the 26-man roster only has a total of four players who can play even one of 2B, SS and 3B. The three starters and Reyes. And Shaw is also playing some 1B. It's a bit thin, and makes it tough if someone has a day off with a day-to-day injury or something. Another bat who can play both IF and a corner OF spot makes sense.

I understand the skepticism about the others, but not really about Cain. Even in 2019 the underlying numbers were fine; a .330 xwOBA compared to the .342 in 2018. He looked fine in his brief showing in 2020, and is looking fine again. He is a player with a career .338 BABIP, age might bring that down a little but the .188 he has now is completely unsustainable. His xwOBA is .329 so far this year. Despite that BABIP resulting in an ugly .185 BA so far, he is still sporting a 94 wRC+. This is something you would expect to go up rather than down based on the underlying numbers. Defensive metrics don't have enough of a sample yet to truly be trusted, but combine the 4 main ones (DRS, UZR, FRAA, OAA) and he's average to slightly above; when they all say the same thing you can probably surmise that the truth at least isn't miles off. And statcast has his sprint speed in the 90th percentile still. Even in an injured 2019 when his offense was down (83 wRC+) he was still an average starter (1.5 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR). And his offense looks fine this year. The one unknown is injuries, but it's pretty clear that a healthy LoCain isn't washed up.

Great job by Urias backing him up and making the quick and accurate throw.

Burnes and Narvaez activated from the IL. Yelich starting a rehab assignment tomorrow. How can you not be optimistic?!?! Though judging from other topics being discussed in this forum, some people aren't. But they're just wrong. Some of them have been predicting doom and gloom ever since I joined here in 2017. Some day they'll be right, but it will not be this day!

I'm as harsh a critic of JBJ as anyone, and I was defending Grisham when he was panned as a bust on here by many, just to give some pretext to the following; Can we stop treating trades and contracts as ironclad failures (or successes for that matter) when we're 10-15% into their duration, or less? JBJ has a .610 career April OPS, and a .726 overall OPS. Which isn't amazing, but along with his defense makes him an average to above average regular. Point is, he is a notorious slow starter. So with that in mind, let's perhaps give it more than 1 month before talking about lighting money on fire. As for the Grisham/Urias trade; It's been 3 months of baseball since the trade, and including this year Grisham and Urias have 5 years of team control, Lauer has 4 (And Davies is an impending free agent). Grisham certainly looks like the winner so far, but it's also been roughly half a season out of the combined 2-6 seasons they had at the time of the trade. A lot can happen still. But then again, fans (including myself oftentimes) tend to lack the insight into the huge degree of randomness in this game, and the time horizon needed to evaluate just about anything because of it. Instead getting wrapped up in individual at bats, or games, or series or even months. This offense has some issues for sure. But a game like yesterday is one where the exact same at-bats wins us the game 9 times out of 10, despite any RISP issues. Come the end of the season, this offense will still most likely still be below average (But a lot closer to average than now), but along with one of the better pitching staffs in the league and a very good defense it will be enough for a playoff spot. That's with or without Andy Haines, with or without trading for Trevor Story or Kris Bryant or whoever.

That's not their career strikeout rates, check the links I posted for their actual numbers. Strikeout rate is K/PA, not K/AB.

Did you just make those numbers up? Because those numbers don't match their career strikeout rates, nor their 2021 rates (except Garcia, if you don't round up), 2020 rates (except Shaw, again without rounding up), season prior to signing rate, or any kind of 3- or 4-year average that I can see. These numbers are all, without exception, higher than their actual career strikeout rates. And it also conveniently leaves out the recent major FA signing with a 15% strikeout rate. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/travis-shaw/11982/stats?position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/players/avisail-garcia/5760/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daniel-vogelbach/14130/stats?position=1B/DH https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-smoak/9054/stats?position=1B

Any time there's a minor league signing the threads look more or less identical. The same posters making the same posts again and again.