Lathund

If we're going to be losing to the Cubs, could it at least be due to them playing well, and not through us gifting them like this?

With the wind blowing in and so many players struggling offensively, I'm not optimistic today. Beyond the first three, it's like a black hole so far this season. Hernan Perez should never hit as high as 5th... Some of them should snap out of it (Santana most likely to do so I suppose), but I don't think it happens today. Would be delighted to be wrong though!

To me this is a trade you make if you're already a playoff calibre team, and want to get over the hump to be able to challenge the very top teams for the WS. The Brewers are currently at the point where even the best case scenario for Machado (Trade for him early and have him edge out his three best years to produce 6 WAR for the rest of the season) might still only result in a WC. That's not worth it for a rental. He doesn't get us close enough to the WS this year, and the move will hurt us long term.

Probably this, but a DFA to Drake could be it too. He'd probably slip thru waivers. He wouldn't. The Brewers FO clearly like him; the publicly available peripherals do too and I would presume the Brewers internal models do as well. And that's the case, then other front offices will too. Someone will claim him off waivers. This isn't saying that they won't, or shouldn't, make that move when Logan, Miley and Knebel will need to be added to the roster, just that the move needs to be made with the knowledge that he likely won't make it to AAA.

That K of Contreras felt good, after him stepping out or calling time three times to rattle Suter, and then him heading to first after taking a strike down the middle.

He could very well break out of this, and I certainly hope he does, but I don't think it's a given. I've long (Well, since maybe the halfway point last year, so not *that* long I suppose) held the belief that 2017 Santana was peak Santana. Which isn't a knock on him, if he could reliable be a 2.5-3 WAR player that's very valuable. But I've also worried that even with the same approach, doing the exact same thing, he'd have worse results. Which seems to be true for plate discipline, which is mostly similar; Though he's getting fewer pitches in the zone (From 44% to 39%), swinging at more pitches outside the zone (27% to 32%) and making less contact overall on his swings (70% vs 67%). Who knows though, maybe this is impacted by the repertoire of pitchers faced so far this early in the season. What is different though is the batted ball profile. Line Drive % is down 10% mostly at the cost of more ground balls, while pull % is down 10% entirely at the cost of Opposite field %. More ground balls, and more pulled balls should be a recipe for a lower .BABIP, and it is lower compared to career numbers indeed. And according to Statcast, batting average should be even lower. The good news though is that Statcast is predicting more XBH, so at least there's that. What would be interesting though, and I don't know how to find that, is to see what types of batted balls are hit to what part of the field. Pulling grounders isn't good, but pulling fly balls can be. Now let's hope this is all just early season noise and he'll get back to 2017 form.

Last season, with the very poor outfield options available, I could see why they'd want to not DL Braun if he was likely only out for ~5 days. But this year? Not so much, makes far less sense. Yelich-Cain-Santana to start while Braun is gone, and call up Phillips or Broxton to cover. Let Braun take the time needed to minimize the risk of recurring and give Phillips/Broxton a chance to audition.

That was the least unexpected GIDP in a while.

The issue last year was offense, not pitching (Other than the lack of depth towards the end of the season). So position players were the bigger need over pitching, even if both were needed. One might argue that going big to improve at 2B or C might have been bigger needs than OF, but at the same time there's the matter of who's available. Players like Yelich very rarely get traded, certainly not with 5 cost controlled years remaining in their prime. I don't see how any available pitcher would've "moved the needle" in the same way and for the same amount of time; nor do I think we get any of those pitchers for the Yelich package; it would've taken a top pitching prospect or two. I'm perfectly happy with the Yelich trade, and I'm saying that as someone who has argued a lot to make Brinson the starting CF in 2018, and who still believe he'll be a star. Anyway, what's interesting is that the weak point so far this year is still offense (Not helped by the injuries to Cain and Yelich), not pitching. Pitching is pretty much league average despite the poor start by parts of the rotation(96 ERA-, 100 FIP-) while offense is worse; 83 wRC+, 20th for runs scored.

The last couple of games have been bad, but we're not even twice through the rotation yet. Both hitters and pitchers will have bad games throughout a season, it's just that when they happen early on they're much more notable. And since there's nothing else to go on, there's always the uncertainty of whether these are just those bad days, or if this is what said player really is like this year. I for one will opt for "I don't know", and give it more time before starting to worry (or not).

It's funny how the Padres hired Dave Cameron a month after this article. And then sign Hosmer a few months later. I don't know Cameron's specific job with the Padres, so might not be any real irony or contradiction to it, but somewhat amusing nonetheless.

I have a source inside the front office that says we're re-signing J.J Hardy to replace Orlando Arcia. Nah, I meant the other J.J; Hoover.

Yes, it really is as simple as that. Same thing with Hoover; he can be stashed in AAA until he's needed. They'll likely be #1 and #2 when Choi is optioned and Aguilar traded/DFAd. Yet the decision to consider things like 40-man roster spots and maintaing depth when deciding on the 7th/8th bullpen slots has people puking over the decision. Quite amusing really. As for the whole 14 position player thing: Again, why not? If you don't have to DFA Aguilar right now, don't do it. If there's a bigger chance of working out some kind of trade, or bigger chance of him clearing waivers, a week from now then that's what you do. It also means that the pinch hitting options for the first series at least will be Santana/Thames, Aguilar and Choi. That's pretty damn good. It's just the opening day roster. It's symbolic, and will change. A lot. 50 players used last year. Then consider that evenly distributed, there were ~22 replacement level (or above) players per team in the MLB last year. Of course you try to keep as many of those guys as you can. It's incredibly short-sighted to just look at the opening day roster. Williams will see plenty of time in the majors this year. So will Hardy. Probably Choi too. Besides all that, Drake somehow became the scapegoat for pretty much everything last year. He's better than the general consensus of him is on here. But this isn't really the place for that debate, and I doubt I can chage anyone's mind on that.

Like the previous poster says, I don't think it would make too much of a difference. It's also only part of the reason why batting the pitcher 8th is a net positive. If your #9 hitter gets on base more, that impacts your #1-#2-#3 hitters in that they get more opportunities to drive runners in, like a second leadoff man. That even creates an effect where the worse the pitcher is at hitting, the more you benefit from batting him 8th, whereas you might be better off batting a pitcher who can hit really well 9th instead of 8th. Basically the bigger the difference between the #8 and #9 hitter, the more you benefit from batting the better one 9th. As counter-intuitive as it may seem. (I suspect there's a point where if the pitcher is truly truly awful at the plate, he might be better of 9th. But your average pitcher is better of 8th).

Who is the top slash line? I figured I'd try to find that out, and the first name that came to mind was Adam Lind. And it was!

He might even be more likely to have a successful year if he's used correctly. I don't understand why people are ready to riot over a guy with a 3.60 career FIP. Actually, I think I do understand. It's because he had a few very memorable implosions at a bad time. An early-season game against SD comes to mind, for example. He's like the antithesis of Aguilar, who is beloved by some because of a few memorable home runs in key situations, in spite of his otherwise pathetic credentials. Drake is hated because of a few unforgettable mistakes in key situations, in spite of his otherwise respectable credentials. With Boone hurt and Hader/Suter being more long relief guys than lefty specialists, they definitely have a spot for Drake. I'm confident that the front office is taking an objective approach to Drake's status, and I think there's a decent chance he makes the team, at least for a while. I think he had a decent chance even with Boone Logan in there, now I'd look at Drake as a virtual lock. I think you're spot on with the assesment that a few visible blowups have shaped opinion on him. His peripherals are really good; FIP/DRA has him as one of the best on the staff. That's with more than 1/3 of batters faced being RHB. I'll take the .685 OPS against LHB any day. He also ran a high BABIP at .349, although that's likely also a product of giving up a fair bit of hard contact (Wouldn't surprise me if that's largely against RHB though, I can see the splitter teeing them up nicely...) There are several factors that suggest that the way he already pitches should see better results going forward; none of it a guarantee of course, but it's intriguing. If used almost exclusively against lefties, he's already a useful reliever. If they think there are further adjustments to be made, he can be more than that. Mind you, I don't think he's some kind of star, or more than one of the last guys in the pen. But there's enough potential upside there to have him on the roster to start the season, and not guarantee that someone claims him on waivers, getting nothing in return. He's a bit of an unusual pitcher with the reverse splits, the splitter, the odd mechanics. Clearly the FO sees something, I say let it play out to see if that something is there. In a season where we had Marinez, Torres, Peralta, Feliz, Scahill, Wang and others I never understood the constant hate.

Win-Loss Record: 86-76 Playoffs (Yes, No): No Highest Playoff Level Achieved: None All Star Game Representative(s): Christian Yelich, Josh Hader Offensive Player of the Year: Ryan Braun Pitcher of the Year: Zach Davies Most Surprising Player: Mauricio Dubon Most Disappointing Player: Domingo Santana / Orlando Arcia

You add veterans on relatively cheap short-term deals while you wait for the young guys to be ready. Burnes, Hiura, Ortiz, Dubon and others will get to play, but aren't ready right this second. There'll always be some veterans in the mix as well even if the overall strategy is young controllable talent.

I'm taking Eric Sogard over Perez. Perez versatility was a huge asset in 2016 and 2017, but is a less needed one now. There's plenty of OF depth, Sogard and Villar can cover the infield well enough, and there's Dubon, Orf and Franklin in AAA should multiple injuries hit. For his career, Sogard is a better hitter than Perez (78 wRC+ vs 73 wRC+) and if the Brewers have reason to believe at least some of the 2017 breakout is real (Due to a more selective approach, perhaps due to a fully healthy knee, or whatever) then the difference may be even bigger going forward. Sogard is also a lefty. Then there's also the consideration of what to get in return; Perez, due to age, versatility and contract status, would likely get a better return in a trade. Basically I think that Perez is the more valuable player overall, but the Brewers are currently in a position where that extra value comes in areas where it's not as needed anymore, and where trading Perez and keeping Sogard is the more prudent move right now. Mind you, this is all hypothetical; I'd keep them both and move Aguilar instead to start the season.

Trading Santana is the one move I wish we'd made. It was something I was in favour of even at the trade deadline (Though there was obviously a stronger case for keeping him then as well). I know the market seemingly wasn't there, but I'm really not a big believer in him nor his fit on this roster at the moment so I'd have taken whatever was there; I don't think his value will ever be higher. Might not have gotten us a ready-made rotation piece, but perhaps a good pitching prospect like the Parra-Davies trade? Perhaps a catching upgrade. But again, I don't know what kind of offers were actually out there; they might have been too low even for someone who rates Santana like I do.

Is Mario Feliciano injured? Haven't seen his name in the ST lineups so far (I believe the only Feliciano I've seen there is Jay).

I remember seeing a list and not being too impressed with it. Naturally that can change depending on what kind of seasons some of them have in 2018, but I don't see too much in the way of big moves next year either. While I think that the Brewers would have been in on the "big 4" at a certain price point, I also think they have a lot of faith in Burnes/Ortiz/Peralta/Woodruff and so don't want to make big moves for the short term. The fact that it was Brinson/Diaz/Harrison included in that deal instead of any of them might also be a sign that points to that (Or that the Marlins wanted hitters, but still...). If Nelson comes back even close to 2017 form, I don't even see a need for 2018. Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Chacin and then some combination of Woodruff/Burnes/Suter/Ortiz/Peralta should prove a good rotation. I'm a big fan of the approach DS is seemingly taking, that you don't let need dictate too much of your actions. What I mean by that is the fact that there is a need (or want) to strengthen the rotation shouldn't mean you settle for anything less than what you're looking for. If the options aren't good enough to "move the needle", or doesn't make sense cost-wise or risk-wise, you walk away. You improve when a deal makes sense, like with Yelich, even it it may not be the biggest need. So I think the internal options will be the focus for the rotation in 2018 and 2019, with a rental or 1-2 year salary dump type signing being the most likely outside additions IMO. To me it makes little sense to acquire high-end pitching; you try to develop your own, or sign slightly lower-tier pitchers who you believe have upside to improve. Spending big on FA pitching is a losing game unless you have the budget to sustain it.

Ray is currently playing in the Cactus League game vs Cincinnati.

Good post (As was a previous post of yours regarding the rotation; a very impressive first 6 posts! Quality posts have been scarce lately), and I agree entirely. Last years rotation didn't look impressive beforehand, but turned out to be. The DS regime so far hasn't given me any reason to doubt them, so I'll continue to have faith. They got us to within one game of the playoffs without basically spending anything, so I'll continue to trust their low-key pickups, re-treads etc. Seems like the front office are good at identifying the type of pitchers DJ can tweak and improve as well, which if it continues is extremely valuable. People panning the rotation are also missing one important thing, which is depth. Some even go so far as to use the term mockingly or sarcastically. The starting 1-5 rotation tends to pitch fewer innings than people expect, it's rarely intact. Even if Nelson to Chacin is a step down (And Chacin seems to be a guy people underrate as well), have a look at what Peralta, Guerra, Garza, Milone, Espino, Blazek and Johnny Wholestaff did. Replace those innings with even replacement level pitching (Which is what 2016-2017 Wade Miley was) and you've improved by 2 wins. Woodruff, Suter and perhaps even Miley (Presumably the Brewers saw something that signalled potential improvement) are in all likelyhood going to be better than replacement level, and will for the most part be replacing innings pitched by worse players. Or put another way; There are about 22 non-negative WAR players per team if they were evenly distributed (According to an article I read recently, forgot where). Teams will have at the very least 30 significant contributors through a season. There is a lot of ground to be gained from improving those last 8(ish) players. So the rotation last year was good, and to me it's basically on the same level overall. The bullpen is better. The lineup is better. Defense should be better as well. A lot of things can go wrong still, and some of them will, but this team is going to be strong this year. It's not some kind of tanking job. DS would have been well aware that Lynn, Walker and Lucroy (To name some) could be had at decent prices, even if it would've potentially taken more to bring them to Milwaukee. He chose not to do it. He had his reasons for doing so, and I don't see any reason to doubt that those reasons are far more likely to be good than bad.

That position player group, barring any trades, feels like a lock to me. I could see Suter in the rotation, with either Woodruff or Miley making way, and potentially T. Williams in the bullpen instead. But with Williams having options (as do some other fringe names like Guerra and Houser) he might be more likely to start in the minors.