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Humans Need Water

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Everything posted by Humans Need Water

  1. Yep. I made this same point on another thread recently. It's partly why they target up the middle players and the past 2 drafts being college bats up the middle. The chances they hit on those guys are much greater than hitting on a #2 rotation arm. And when you have a pipeline of up the middle performing prospects they're either filling your MLB positions or using them to land an MLB arm. Or you can use your veteran MLB players to land Top 50-75 prospects (Hader, Ortiz, Bickford) who have shown success through the A+/AA levels so there's less risk than draft day on them. You can still get potential rotation arms in the 2nd-4th rounds (ie Burnes) too. I'd personally take a college bat in the 1st every time unless there's a college arm you can't pass up. I wouldn't go after a HS rotation arm unless they're crazy special.
  2. No. I don't doubt Cooper has slightly improved as a hitter. He's always been a really solid bat but he doesn't have over the wall pop. He's a line driver hitter. CS is taking a percentage of those doubles and turning them into HR. He's not going to hit for 20HR power. Thames and Aguilar have 30HR power though
  3. This is nothing like Boston's situation. Shaw wasn't blocked; he was the starter. They had Panda still so dealt him. Cooper is the guy who's blocked. There are two guys ahead of him with 3yrs and 5yrs control - both are very productive with much more power. I like Cooper but I don't understand how anyone doesn't like this deal. We dealt from depth for a lefty pen arm with 5yrs control (double digit K9 with good BB9, whip rates) who helps our pen right now and in the future. And Cooper isn't sniffing the OF. Starting in Sept we're going to have 4 legit defensive OF on the roster moving forward. Perez will most likely see a big cut in OF play starting next year.
  4. I've always liked Cooper as a player but Thames and Aguilar are better overall bats, power clearly playing a role. Thames has 3yrs control and Aguilar 5. Aguilar is also 5 months older than Cooper. All of this makes Cooper expendable. It's pretty straight forward. Good to see Cooper get an opportunity in NY. I like Wang, would like to see him get a shot. But I'll take Webb over him any day. Throws harder, better stuff, similar control, MUCH better K9. It doesn't make any sense to put Webb in AAA either. He can replace Scahill immediately adding a 2nd lefty to the pen. While I can see Hader trade discussions taking place, because you should always listen, I highly doubt Stearns is actively shopping him.
  5. Cooper, and other Top 15-25 org prospects, are obvious trade bait to acquire a pen arm. Carter was just on the Yankees roster almost the entire first half and now Cooper can step into that role and be a better overall hitter, minus the natural power. These are the moves some of us have mentioned the past 48hrs that made the most sense
  6. Put Sale in the NL and his numbers across the board will rival Bumgarner. Bumgarner isn't even the best pitcher in his state
  7. Better than what Sale brought? I don't think many scouts would agree with that. Kopech has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game in the future. He just does some stupid things and struggles with his command...but he absolutely dominated the AFL. Add that to the top prospect in all of baseball, middle of the order bat at a premium position and I don't think we have the quality to match that. Not that I think we need to because I think Sale is a better pitcher. Arcia is showing he has the potential to be an AS with the bat combined with his GG caliber defense at "the" premium position. He's already doing this in MLB (I think he was to #8 or so overall at one point). Brinson is a 5 tool CF with AS potential who is MLB ready (Top 15). Hader/Woodruff adds another potential #2-3 rotation arm who are both MLB ready (or Hader ends up long term in pen with AS potential). Moncada is almost MLB ready and while his overall bat and power are better, Arcia will be no slouch in those categories, especially for a SS. Moncada is average at best in the field (might end up at 3b) but has a hose like Arcia. They're different style players so can only compare to a certain extent. Kopech has great stuff but has seen his BB9 go from 3.7 to 5 to 6.1 (this year in AA) over the past 3yrs. Hader was same age/level and improved to 3. The 3rd guy is a CF with (4) 55-60 evenly split tools but his bat is a big question mark. If he doesn't hit he's a backup at best and he's in A+. 4th guy throws hard, is 23 in A+ with big command issues. He's done nothing impressive to this point. is what Sale brought really better?
  8. Brewers get: $10 voucher for big ass pretzel with (2) cheese cups Kelly's Bleachers gets: Andrew Savee (Top 100 right handed bags player) In case either side is apprehensive about pulling the trigger I think Stearns steps in and makes 2 separate trades, both involving humans Edit: Stearns targets Jake McGee, Dustin McGowan, Bryan Shaw, Addison Reed, Ryan Madson type rentals (adds 1-2 of these guys to shore up the pen). He also targets 1 SP along the lines of Jamie Garcia, Alex Cobb type rentals as insurance policy. Uses Top 15-25 org prospects (including Cooper) - these moves fill the cracks for the division run while keeping the "future" in place. Sept will see Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff and others
  9. Based on present day....and yes, I'd be open to trading anyone depending on the actual trade No-Trade: Brinson, Hader, Woodruff, Phillips, Ortiz, Burnes, Diaz, Bickford, Hiura [prefer not to trade Peralta, T.Williams (pen), Kodi (pen)] Must trade for young pitching with control: don't have a definitive list because it depends on certain variables and I'd also use MLB players too Like to trade: Lopez, Diplan, Ponce, Gatewood, Harrison, Coulter, Demi, McClanahan, Lara
  10. So you're basically just saying you're right about this and to trust you because you're a smarter baseball person than the rest of us. I think you'll find that most posters here quite frankly, with no disrespect intended to the 'average person', are quite a bit more knowledgeable than the conventional casual fan the you'll find at the ballpark or posting on Facebook. To think you're simply on a different level than all of us is incredibly arrogant and narcissistic. David Stearns and Craig Counsell themselves don't know if Brinson will come in and immediately outproduce Broxton. Have you personally asked Stearns and Counsell if they don't know if Brinson will come in and outproduce Broxton? If not, please explain to me how my point is invalid while yours is valid? Should I send a note to one of my ex-coworkers, who's best friends with Counsell, and have him ask him his thoughts on Brinson (even though Counsell won't respond in detail because that's the type of person he is in general - I know - I've had drinks with him and lunch with his wife)? Should we get a rival NL Central Manager's opinion since these guys all know and have seen the top prospects? A guy I've worked with for 8yrs who I'm close with happens to be best friends with Bryan Price (who also leaves tix for me for spring training games and when they're in town if I want them), should I have him shoot Price a text right now? My co-worker was also drafted 6th rd and won a AA championship throwing to Steinbach with McGwire and Weiss in his IF. He also happens to know an absurd amount about the game. Obviously we talk baseball. I haven't had a facebook account in 2.5yrs and just because people like you believe the majority on this board are quite a bit more knowledgeable than the casual fan doesn't make it true. And to answer your question. No. Me saying I have a different baseball background than the average person, which is why I see things the "average" fan doesn't, is the truth. If Kershaw said he's the best pitcher in the game and understands various aspects of pitching better than "average" pitchers as a result does that make him arrogant and a narcissist? Just applying your basic logic here... There's an absurd amount of players that were better than me and even more people who know more about the game than I do (from both baseball and business sides - and I've also sat down with Schlesinger multiple times in his office and suite discussing the business side and have also sat down with Bob Quinn in the suite as well). I started learning the intricacies of the game in grade school (and through HS) at camps and such led by ex/current MLB players and coaches learning about each position on the field and, more importantly, why to do one thing vs another - one of the instructors I recall was Bill Almon, who I'll never forget because he introduced himself as "the guy who lost his starting SS job to Ozzie Smith". He turned into a utility player and was the first person I learned all IF positions from at a young age. I was recruited by Bando Jr to walk-on D2 (long-story short I ended up going there but decided not play because I was transferring back home, ended up playing a year of D3 then just focused on school because I had no professional career coming nor cared about continuing to play "just to say I played 4yrs of college"). I was an Asst Varsity HS coach at 18. Up until 25/26yrs old or so I played (and ran the team) with and against guys ranging from AAA down to just finishing their HS careers (Jason Jaramillo/Ryan Rohlinger - who both ended up in MLB eventually - and Mike Mueller who went to Auburn then drafted again). I go to spring training every year and actually talk to Brewers minor league coaches as well as scouts. We always sit behind home plate near the top and are surrounded by scouts. This past year we were directly in front of MLB scouts for the Dbacks (also Special Asst to the GM and scout of the year a few years ago) and Os (ex-MLB catcher who made 1 AS game). I spent 6 innings talking baseball with both of them - discussing their thoughts on certain players and why they think that, what they see/what they're looking at. They gave me the gun for 3-4 innings and I reported what the numbers were while we continued our conversations and while they also played with my 1.5yr old daughter. The Dbacks scout gave me his card - said I know what I'm talking about and lets get a drink when he's in town a couple times annually scouting the Brewers. The Os scout also made it known that he wasn't a fan of acquiring Gerardo Parra because he was playing out of his a$$ and is a bad clubhouse guy. I don't just "watch" games. Every pitch I'm watching both the pitchers and hitters mechanics looking for potential inconsistencies, reasons why they were late/early/fouled it off/etc, discussing pitch selection every pitch with friends and why, strategies based on each situation, where players are lined up and why in conjunction with the pitches/locations being called, etc. I never just "watch" a game because I literally can't. That's not how my mind and eyes work. (side note: in 2016 spring training Lucroy held my daughter for a pic and he killed it and was an AS. this year Knebel held my daughter for a pic and he's killing it and is an AS. while we stood right next to the opening of the dugout at minor league field for a AAA game talking to their coaches before the game and during the first couple innings my daughter grabbed both of Cooper's bats and started dragging them away. then she was playing with Dubon's shoes putting rocks in and out of them - they both sat there laughing. Cooper is an AS and having a career year and Dubon was already promoted to AAA. the moral of the story is you can thank my daughter for their success!!) Those are my experiences. What are yours?
  11. I don't know if he could quickly outproduce Broxton or not. That's why I literally said, "I don't know." Consistency isn't as big of a deal as some make it out to be. If Player A and Player B are statistically identical at the end of the year, only Player A got there consistently, while Player B had various hot and cold stretches, both have still produced the same value. Before you said Broxton isn't exactly setting a high bar here, now you say Broxton's not exactly a bum. So what is it, should he be replaced or not? Tell these reasons to Jett Bandy. Not buying it. They've made plenty of personnel moves and tinkered with the roster since they've been in 1st. Keon Broxton is still the starting CF'er for the Brewers because at this point and time the organization still feels that he gives them a better shot at winning games than Brinson or Phillips as the everyday guy. I think you're putting way, way too much stock in an immediate impact from Brinson based on his minor league numbers and prospect status. We've been spoiled this year by Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, but not every high ranked rookie prospect makes that immediate of an impact that quickly. Arcia made very little positive impact the last half of 2016. Rickie Weeks was as can't miss of a prospect as we've had this century, and he produced negative WAR his first full season, and less than 1 his second. Brad Nelson was a top 25 prospect. If you want to put Brinson's first season WAR prediction over the 2.8 that Ender pointed out that Broxton has had, go ahead, but it's far less of a slam dunk than you seem to indicate. Small sample, but I also didn't get the sense that Brinson's defense is MLB-ready, certainly not to the extent that Arcia's was when we promoted him. It doesn't have to be either or. Broxton is an average starting CF. There's value in that. But he's also not lighting the world on fire. What I said makes sense and is straight forward. Tell that to Bandy? You're comparing a backup catcher to a starting CF? Doesn't make sense. No, I'm absolutely not putting too much stock solely due to his minor league numbers and prospect ranking. I watch a different game than you. I see things you don't see. I guarantee that. I have a different baseball background than the average person. It's why I discuss technical/mechanical aspects when it comes to hitting or pitching when discussing players (ie I didn't see anyone else mention Villar's timing mechanism adjustment the past handful of games he played, which has led to greater consistency (at least thus far) - who else discussed release point, etc when discussing AAA arms in CS environment?). Judge was awful last year and he made mechanical adjustments in the off-season and changed his approach. Bellinger is a special player with a hell of a lot more power than Brinson - he's hitting 261/342 but his 25HR are amazing and they absolutely help the aforementioned numbers. Arcia came up at 21, not 23. Weeks had 2 massive changes to his swing mechanics (both right when coming up and a few years in - I believe those were the times). What has Brinson had changed? Nothing. WAR also leans more heavily on the defensive side and Brinson is MUCH better than Weeks at his premium defensive spot. You just compared Brad Nelson to Brinson - that's all I'm going to say about that. And no, 2 different players that put up the same offensive numbers at season's end are not equally valuable. Broxton's 4-6wks bad stretches he's barely contributing offensively (he's been a 286 OBP, low 700 OPS player since June 1). Replace that with the "consistent" player that means they're actually contributing something over that 4-6wks. When Broxton has his 10 game amazing stretches he's producing at a very high level and no doubt outproducing the "consistent" player. But that "consistent" player is still contributing, just like before. Consistency matters. It absolutely matters. Anybody's that played or coached at any level that matters has either been preached this hard core or preaches it themselves. Again, I made it clear that I like Broxton. I have no issues with them moving forward with him the rest of the season and bringing up Brinson/Phillips in Sept. But that doesn't mean Brinson can't step in and outproduce Broxton right now. This isn't a complicated subject matter.
  12. My first thoughts exactly. Buxton was rushed and was super young. Brinson will have spent what amounts to full seasons (or close to it) at each level and they're months apart age wise. Brinson hasn't been rushed along.
  13. Lol, small sample alert. I have very little doubt that if Brinson was brought up for good and given an everyday spot, he'd very quickly outproduce Broxton. The conclusions drawn on so little never cease to amaze me. You say that the conclusions draw on so little never cease to amaze you while literally concluding that Brinson would outproduce Broxton quickly. Maybe he would, I really don't know. But if the Brewer organization was as certain as you, he'd be our starting CFer now. There would be no reason not to especially in contention. Do you honestly not believe a Top 15 prospect who's killed it at every level in the minors (typically young for level by at least 1.5yrs) that has all the tools to be an AS CF could quickly outproduce a a guy slashing 227/304/755? Broxton not exactly setting a high bar here and I'm saying this as someone who likes him. Brinson's numbers are gaudy (in part to CS) but he's also hitting 264/365/865 on the road in AAA. He's rather consistent too, unlike Broxton. And the Brewers org is certain, which is why Brinson is going to be the CF of the future and not Broxton. But there could be several reasons he's not inserted right now. 1) Broxton's not exactly a bum 2) Maybe they don't want to mess with what's working on the field given they're in 1st 3) Maybe they don't want to mess with the team chemistry/clubhouse culture having Broxton sit on the bench 4) Maybe they're waiting until the deadline to trade/package Broxton for an arm (would have less of a chemistry impact given everyone knows when you're in the hunt you need to shore up weaknesses and potentially use MLB players to do so, plus it makes sense given the crowded OF situation at the top levels) 5) Maybe they want Broxton to play a full season and perform as an average starter or better making him more valuable to trade in the off-season given his 5yrs control, which would also strengthen the bench in Sept with Brinson/Phillips on it There's plenty of logical reasons. Rewind 1yr and Brinson would already be the every day CF.
  14. Arcia, Brinson, Hader/Woodruff is 3 MLB players right away with 5-6yrs control. Arcia, at this point, looks like a multi-year AS. Brinson has AS potential in CF. Hader/Woodruff will be good pitchers (Hader has AS potential if in pen). This is better than what Sale brought
  15. Lol, small sample alert. I have very little doubt that if Brinson was brought up for good and given an everyday spot, he'd very quickly outproduce Broxton. The conclusions drawn on so little never cease to amaze me. My opinion and if it amazes you so be it. Do you think Brinson hit the ball well when he was up? He was overmatched. I wish someone would be amazed by anything I said!! I don't think Brinson was over-matched. I think his lack of production was a combination of being too passive and nervous to start combined with inconsistent PT (start one night, off the bench late the next, etc). It's a different routine than he's ever known. As his time went on he looked better in his ABs actually and was making solid contact. If Stearns stayed with Broxton and just brings Brinson up in Sept I'm cool with it as I like Broxton. But if he decided to use Broxton to bring an arm at the deadline having Brinson take over every day I'm cool with that too as I think Brinson is an immediate upgrade when playing every day.
  16. I agree, but there is a need for some bullpen help, and Aguilar is the type of asset who could be flipped for said help. Cooper looks like he will be able to post a similar OPS, will be under control for open more year, so why not flip Aguilar? If Suter is past the 50 IP mark, Cooper is probably my #1 vote as things stand. I wouldn't flip Aguilar because I don't think Cooper's bat is as good as Aguilar's overall. I like Cooper and his bat but the power aspect is huge off the bench and that's what Aguilar has. Aguilar having success already at this level will be critical when it matters most down the stretch. I just don't think Cooper can replace what Aguilar has done and that's why I wouldn't trade him. Plus, if we ever trade Thames then I would rather have Aguilar over Cooper starting. Technically Shaw could slide over to 1b too if we have a 3b at that point in time to back-fill him there but that's another topic. If we are using MLB players to acquire that pen arm then I'd seriously consider trading Broxton but then you might risk messing with the culture/chemistry. I think by the end of July Brinson is ready to play every day and can match, if not exceed, what Broxton has done this year. Then in Sept you bring up Phillips and Cordell. Broxton with 5yrs control as a starting caliber CF can bring a really good pen arm. I would use Cooper and other minor leaguers for potential trades.
  17. Anderson is currently on the DL. Is expected back early in August but who knows if he'll really be back then? And if he is back, how effective will he be? The #1 insurance option, Brandon Woodruff, is currently on the DL and hasn't pitched in a game in over a month. Junior Guerra is on the DL but is not expected to be on there for long. But he was coming off three bad starts in a row and had an ERA over 6 in June/July. Matt Garza is up and down. Suspect that will continue through the rest of his career. That's just where he is at. However, in the three years prior to this one he averaged 23.6 starts per season so while he's not a major injury risk, he's not known for his durability either. The sample size on Suter isn't large enough to draw any conclusion. Davies could be the second most reliable starter the Brewers have right now, and he is in the midst of a 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP season. I'd prioritize starting pitching and there is no way I wouldn't add one prior to July 31. Just too many possible depth issues for me to ignore. Personally, I'd troll the bottom of the market for someone like Estrada or Liriano to serve mostly as insurance the rest of this year. The cost for a pitcher like this would be pretty minimal. If he turned out to be the hot hand it could be a steal situation. If he struggles...well the cost was minimal and hopefully the rest of the starters could pick up the slack. I know Stearns has said the opposite, but I'm perfectly fine with grabbing a 2.5 month rental. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to worry about fitting him in with Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Garza/Woodruff/Guerra (and possibly Hader and Ortiz depending on how the Brewers choose to use) in 2018, and obviously the price-tag would be a lot less. Starter for depth/insurance is priority #1 and adding a reliever would be priority #2. I would probably spend more for a reliever and get the best one I could get as long as it doesn't enter into Will Smith price-tag type insanity. I'd hope to fill these two roster spots with some combination of the following prospects : Marcos Diplan, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell and if the reliever was good enough might consider Trent Clark. Considering I would be trolling the bottom of the starting pitching market I think that would be achievable. But starter has to be first because I think the Brewers really need to add one. If the relievers command real high prices I could live without adding another. Hughes and Drake have both been really good in June/July. This logic I can get on board with. I probably should have asked why do people believe we need a "high level pitcher" in the mold of Quintana, Gray, Stroman. Especially if they do require (Gray shouldn't though) parting with Brinson + Hader/Woodruff + Phillips (or Burnes potentially). I'd much rather see a Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips OF with Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies rotation in 2018/2019 then use the next wave of top prospects to fetch this high level rotation arm (Bickford, Hiura, Diaz, Erceg, Ray, Clark, Peralta, Nottingham - these are just the one's currently in the system as we'll have more coming via the next 2 drafts and will eventually trade several rotation arms, Broxton, Villar, Perez and potentially Thames, etc). As opposed to seeing Braun, Phillips, Santana, Broxton OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Davies, Nelson/Chase OR seeing Braun, Broxton, Santana, Cordell OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies then trading the same players as above. Option 1 keeps everyone (strong starting and depth) then adds the high level arm. Option 2 costs us Brinson (+ maybe Phillips) + 1-2 of the top 4 arms (6yrs control) and gives us 3yrs of a #2. I fail to see how Option 2 is better. This is why I also think adding a decent insurance arm/rental is the best option assuming both Chase/Woodruff aren't back by the end of July. I'd add 1 solid pen arm for sure. In Sept we can bring up whoever we need to the pen as well, including starters.
  18. Bloodsport is an all-time great. Good call on that one
  19. Haha seriously though. On another note that Fielder/Kinsler trade was terrible. That looked terrible for Texas immediately and that is exactly how it ended up. Saying Fielder played so many games the 5 previous years is picking stats to fit your argument. The guy was fat and had a body destined for failure at 30. Texas lucked out that he got so hurt he couldn't play so insured saved them. A body destined for failure at 30? Then how did he manage to become an AS and 13th in MVP voting at 31yrs old posting 305/378/841 after having neck surgery the year prior? His career didn't end because of his weight and that's a fact. He was a big dude yet was still a pretty decent athlete overall, not just because of his size. A better athlete than the vast majority of this board probably, including me. He'd still be playing today if he didn't have his cervical fusions. It's not cherry picking to fit a narrative when you're saying the previous 5yrs before his neck injury he missed 1 game. How in the world was TX supposed to know he'd have neck surgery his first year with them when he missed 1 game the previous 5yrs and never missed more than 5 games in a season going back 8yrs? Durability is a massive plus and he was absolutely durable. If he was as fat as you imply then it would be impossible for him to play the field for 157-162 games over 8 straight years at the MLB level.
  20. No Could have fooled me. People here tend to never describe anything specific in the game (mechanically, etc) rather just cite analytics. Hence watching video. Or games for that matter
  21. Am I the only person that watches videos on guys? As I stated earlier he's a 2b and nothing else. He's a hitter; that's what he does. He's a pretty decent athlete and will be fine moving around and fielding; his arm is his biggest limitation. It's 2b and only 2b, which is fine because he's a 2b!! If he hits to his potential then it doesn't matter in the end. (fast forward to the 1:50 mark) - HS (first 25sec) - college
  22. Why do you believe the Brewers need a SP at this deadline?
  23. So you want Brinson up because you want to play the "what if" game? That's not how it works. Perez is the 4th OF at this point because none of the starting OF is on the DL.
  24. Garden State bored me to tears. But speaking of documentaries, Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey is really worth seeing. Its the story of how they found Filipino Arnel Pineda to be their next lead singer. Very impressive and entertaining story. I can definitely see how someone can be bored by Garden State. It's one of those movies that's perfect for watching on a lazy Sunday afternoon laying on the couch. Others that come to mind for that are Lucas, Can't Buy Me Love, Sixteen Candles, Breakfast Club, 10 Things I Hate About You, Clueless, Mean Girls, Election. One of my all time favorites is Teen Wolf. Can't believe I forgot that before
  25. Fast Times is awesome
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