TJseven7

Ouch... 10.5 mil... ouch.

Yeah they might have to vend popcorn on their off days at this rate. Crazy... Dont you think some team would moneyballesque cluster buy. Moose walker lucroy could make a team a good amount better for 15mil.

Agreed but Moose just got stomped on so....

Wow that's low... wow

Yes ST but its nice to see Pina having a solid go of things. An increase from villar and a repeat from pina would go a long way.

Broxton and Villar need plate discipline. If either got it they'd be solid players. Until they have it they are toolsy trash. He's a scarecrow... if he only had a brain. If we are keeping Santana, and it appears he's not getting the value we want, there's zero need to keep broxton and there's zero chance to develop him further. Phillips is also waiting. He could have a very nice year for someone if he keeps walking. Exit velocity and speed plays if you can swing at good pitches and get on base a bit. 20/20 guys are rare... but at this point he's a scratch and dent upside add that doesn't fit here. You get anything reasonable you sell him. You have to while the option exists or he's in scooter territory next year. We got him for nothing. Still got supak and anything else is still far far ahead of Rogers. Just give me Alexander Canario OF and Camilo Doval rhp from SF and be done with it.

The bending innings so that the pitchers can lineup against teams they match up against better never even crossed my mind. I was looking at it 1 day at a time matchup wise... as in... they go lhb heavy and our rhp starter might be looking at 3ip so our lefty can ambush the stack... but to shape it based on the upcoming schedule goes into math and scheduling that flies way way over my head. That doesn't mean they can't though. Would that be the first time non-ingame scheming to your opponent would be adopted within the regular season? I mean at least to that level?

I'm cartainly a bit more rigid with my layout. But its a template idea more than its a set in stone 4-4 etc. Its really set to avoid going more than 2 times through a lineup with sub optimal options while letting young guys test their legs in starter like/semi stretched situations. I don't like the 2ip long man approach because while it allows frequency of use it doesn't prepare them to become starters. I'm not ready to discard the idea of suter starting and I don't feel woodruff can go deep yet. I also dont think burnes peralta or hader could go deep yet so keep that bug in your bonnet. While 2 ip fits PH better... and jeffress barnes suter miley hader could all do it... leaving logan albers knebel as solo guys... it inefficiently puts suter and miley in a 2 ip role when they could go 2 times through. I worry about being in a scenerio where you get 6 from anderson davies and chacin and then look at the pen and want to go albers hader knebel to finish. You wouldnt want to turn it over a close game to the 2 ip guys in that scenerio as often as we'd dream up. If you get more rigid you tie yourself into using these guys in proper spots and sparing the pen. You have to remember if we were to go this route you are fighting against the mental imprint of "this is how its done." The built in lessons a manager will have to actively fight to carry this out properly. The more rigid, the easier that becomes. The goal is to make it easy to get suter over 100ip. The goal is to get a solid 128ip from guerra. The goal is to not overwork woodruff and let him focus on a full years worth of starts not a huge innings spike. Miley being useful. We'd also be set up to kick platoon schemes in the balls. Do you stack lhb vs woody knowing suters on the way? You can't just toggle in your bench in the NL. You need ph options for the last 5 innings. So that plays into the 4-4 schemes favor. So do you force them to avoid platooning? Do you trap them in a platoon? It puts pressure on them which is a positive. I feel like altering away from the rigid template due to high leverage need is the easier route. Even with calling it rigid I expect it to be a fluid adaptation. Guerra allows 3 thru 4... we dont score... suter goes until its a saves opp or its over. 5ip close out in a loss. But pen gets a full rest day. Same in a big lead. And as i said... #4 throw day is anderson start. #5 throw day is Davies start. Chacin start is the tricky one but with a possibility of under 4 pen innings in the next 2 days that can be managed.

Hot take, Drake blows.

Pretty much any pitcher is an injury risk, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn included. And looking at most of Chacin's career, including last year, indicates that he is better than "mediocre at best". It's likely that the team is going to use 9-10 starters at least this year, so building depth is not a bad thing. Unfortunately the Brewers are likely never going to be in the position to have a big-money starter in every spot in the rotation. But if they could sign Arrieta or Cobb, I feel that their 1-4 of Arrieta/Cobb, Anderson, Davies and Chacin has the potential to match up with pretty well with any other team's 1-4. But I mean, if this is the realistic expectation you have for the current rotation, signing Cobb or Arrieta isn't going to make too much difference, because what you are saying is they'd be surrounding Arrieta or Cobb with injury-prone crap. Chacin isn’t anything special, sorry. That’s why they got him at such a cheap contract. He’s a good bottom of the rotation option for a good team but shouldn’t be in the top 3. He did not pitch well in 2014 and 2016 at all. I’d be happy if he was the #5 starter. Anderson or Davies could get hurt as could anyone but if Anderson or Davies gets hurt isn’t it better to have to rely on Cobb or Arrieta than it would be to rely on Miley, Gallardo or Guerra, if you’re trying to actually make the playoffs that is? We have 2 chacins instead of the crap we pitched last year and this is easily a 90 win team. Solid pieces don't cost you games.

And what if one or both suck? You just throw it out there like "No problem, one guy goes 4, then the next goes 4-5." It will rarely work out that way. Why is the idea of a starter cruising nonsense? Suter had a few starts like that, so did Woodruff. Eva\en 1 out of 2 Wilkerson starts he put up 7 strong innings. The notion of benching someone who's pitching well just because it's time for his piggyback partner to get his innings is just crazy to me. But the bigger question to all this is WHY? What is the advantage? Or put another way, what is the disadvantage to having 5 starters go as long as they can, and have an 8 man BP ready to pick up innings as needed? Why? Statistical hedging. He could go 7... and he could also decline the 3rd time through like his stats and just about everyone's stats show. 4 good innings is 4 good innings. It puts you closer to winning but you can't tell me you know if more of that guy or turning it over to the other guy who is positioned to succeed is better. I say "oh they just go 4 then he goes 4 like its simple"... well it places them in the situations where they are statistically successful so yeah simple. Isn't that the whole point of analytics? What if doesn't matter. What could go wrong, anything and everything no matter how you stack it. We could watch Davies get bounced in 2 and play 15 innings only for chacin to get hurt the next day on pitch 1. Disaster is always looming. I care about navigating today, putting people in situations where they are likely to succeed while angling to mitigate future risk (in this case pen stress). We have 5 guys who have potential to be good in roles, and are very unlikely to carry big innings because they haven't done it or aren't good enough to be trusted to do it. We've never been built for this like we are today. You cant expect woodruff or suter to post 180 innings. You cant expect davies anderson chacin to be long start guys. You cant put 70+ ip on every dude in the pen without it running on fumes. You can't waste a bp spot on a guy you hold back in the event tomorrow goes badly. A guy you don't trust to be good, who's only talent is the ability to cover many innings in a L. Position the team to win. Structure for the entire 162. Deal with implosions when they happen. I see all the what if bad things. What about chacin hits the DL... suter gets bumped out of his piggyback, woodruff gets a 1 ip longer leash and suter is ready to jump into chacins next turn. He'd be less prepared for that if he wasn't already semi stretched in his piggyback role. 3 starters and 4 guys who can likely handle 4 fairly well. 3 starters and 0 guys you can comfortably expect 5.5+ good ip from. How can we keep 7 starters stretched on the mlb roster, while limiting pen wear, while getting good results? 1 way. 1 way. Cc also stated Peralta Burnes could be up by june. They'd fit in really well in this if say Guerra and Miley didnt work out that well since neither is ready for a huge full season workload.

And don't be niave intentionally. There are many fluid alterations that can be made mid game to this. You go 4ip with guerra and he's due up in 5 batters. No one reaches. You try guerra in the 5th quick hook with jeffress or albers on stand by. If he the rp gets out of the 5th... ph... suter gets 4. Fast forward to the 8th tight game and its a scoring chance with the pitcher up. Short day for suter if hader/knebel are available. If you want every AB off a pitcher... get the DH or find a way to get 30 men on the active roster. 1 way or another they bat. You can't get short innings from starters and pen guys and survive a season. Woodruff over 160 is asking a lot Suter over 160 is asking a lot Guerra over 128 is asking a lot Miley/Yo... guess. You take the best 2 of those and enjoy 72.75 innings from each of the 8 pen guys. Find a way to get the 2 long guys 4 ip per week in the proper spots while avoiding mid game implosions by 2 of 4 guys who can't work deep. You know how that goes... you use the best 4... you sit on your long guys because well... tomorrow we might need them. Tomorrow is never today.

Vogt perez sogard are a sure thing? All ph ab are in critcal spots? Ph BA is good typically? None of those answers are no.

Anderson 5.6 ip average. 185 ip, 6 man pen plus guerra/suter on throw day Davies 5.8 ip average. 191ip, 6 man pen plus woodruff/miley throw day Chacin 5.6 ip average 180ip, 6 man pen with 2 days of low pen demand upcoming Woodruff 5/Suter 3-4... 260 ip total. Guerra 4/Miley 3-5... 240 ip total. 402 ip (roughly) left for 6 arms. Anderson has JIC 8 man pen, Davies JIC 8 man pen. Chacin has a short pen but Barnes Jeffress Albers are very unlikely to go either of the next 2 starts. I see long guys get held out of streaks of games all the time because... well what if we need 3ip from them tomorrow. Because of what if and them not being a good option they dont go 100 ips in a year. Structuring it this way gets around tgat. You use the long man... you hold back jeffress and barnes a bit who can go 1 any day and still gut out 2 the next in a bad spot. Honestly... almost majes sense to go Anderson davies chacin woodruff/suter Guerra/Miley Knebel hader albers logan jeffress Gallardo. Option Barnes.

5 things: Piggy back doesn't depleat your bench further. You have 2 guys go 8-9 innings. It actually removes PH attempts. You see one between the 4th and 5th hopefully and then you dont see one until late. The idea of a guy crusing is nonsense. You've all watched enough baseball to see someone average go 4 strong then not finish the 5th. Everyone worries about if a starter implodes who isn't a piggy back. Ok fine. But with most innings going to the best 4 (logan albers hader knebel) and most normal starts going 5 and change innings, and piggy backs going 7-9 depending on game score, when do Barnes Jeffress get innings? When we are losing. They can both watch a guy implode in the 2nd, take 2 ip each and get to the 6th. Id rather throw our lowest leverage bp guys in a near certain L than guys who are pitching good innings in their role. Suter sucking up innings in a blowout is wasting him. Its also an all hands on deck moment, guerra suter woodruff miley could be on their scheduled throw day and in a bad loss they can scoop up an inning each. They don't have to be shut down completely for 4 days after going 4ip in their "starts." If you want to treat miley guerra suter woodruff like normal starters you better get some big innings from you long man because they are very likely to be right tight to 5ip per start. If your 2 piggy backs can average 8ip... per start... assume no junk innings inbetween starts you actually need 4 ip a year less from each of 6 pen guys than you would of the 8 pen guys if the starters averaged 5.5ip per start. Our only guy above that is Davies. If you try to go further with them... enjoy watching games getting lost in the 5th and 6th. Its not just the 8 man pen, or the short start arms we have, or the R/L set up we have with suter miley guerra woodruff. There's was also a reporter from one of the abalytics sites who said in a Q/A that mke is trying something very different with their pitchers. That could mean anything, but you don't say that unless you think something very different is going on.

I wouldn't let them back in after 5 ip. Not a single 1 of the 4. You have a job to do. Do your job. Suter guerra were both good through 4. 5 was an implosion so don't trust it no matter how they look. The more taxing side of it is if someone implodes but with barnes jeffress who need innings you can likely handle that just fine.

Starting to wonder if 4-5 is going to be both piggyback starts. Guerra/suter Woodruff/miley Knebel hader albers logan... barnes jeffress as 2 ip options. If anderson davies and chacin are 5.5 ip start average types and you assume all 5 starters are then an 8 man pen has to carry 567 ip... which is basically 70 a guy. Its rough. But if you go 5.5 from the first 3... and can get 8 averaged from the 2 piggybacks then you are looking at 6 guys carrying 405ip... lowers it a bit per guy despite only having a "6 man pen."

I would be a little shocked if the true #6 option is in the bullpen on the MLB squad. Keep him in AAA to stay conditioned as a starter. Not really. It's not like he'll lose his conditioning in a few weeks. His arm will be plenty stretched out, and he'll be pitching regularly, especially when Guerra fails to make it through 3 innings in his starts. That's my take. 8 man pens interesting. It allows piggyback. If guerra's trusted 4ip... you can pull him and have him throw 1 more simulated... insert suter and ditto. Its strange and putting some extra wear and tear on guys you are using in non-game situations is unheard of, but if you have 5 guys and aren't sure which if any can carry a starters load keeping all of them stretched makes sense. Guerra Miley would be a bonus at this time if they can offer anything positive. But suter woodruff have control and upside, yet concerns about going deeper than 5 at this point in their career. Guerra miley used as pen wear savers while not taxing guys who are working their way in is an interesting and possibly benefitial idea.

Fangraphs has him with 5 pitches including a cutter he used over 10% last year. New slider, maybe. But he had a slider.

Maybe he's trying to iron out the split change and will have a showcase. Having that pitch back would effect his value.

He allowed a double? Arcia handles his job its 4ip 1 earned if Abreu can score on the double from 1st 2 down... otherwise its 2 stranded. Wasn't impeccable but that's hardly a watershed moment. I don't see cobb taking less than 16aav for 3. A 10 mil offers not doing it. 2 years will just jack up the aav.

He gave up 3 runs in the 4th and got pulled with two down. He's been impressive regardless, but I still think his ultimate upside is replacement-level. Probably more of a stamina thing than anything plus an error(s) on Arcia that led to runs. Essentially should have left either 2 down 1 in if Abreau could score from 1st going on contact or stranded on 2nd and 3rd. Arcias error was pretty big there. I still want williams in the pen over Gallardo but Miley and Guerra are pitching their way towards jobs. Ps: come on barnes get it going... we coukd use a step forward from you.

What's scary is if Kirby and/or Webb can hit the ground running and get a promotion A+ could be the staff to watch. Everyone who could fly up the ranks seems to be there.

Nope nope nope. I'm not trading away any pitching I want to keep that's on the mlb roster. I'd rather get one 19 year old A ball ticket arm than trade out a contributer to get an equal risk add like Cotton.

Well in comparison to what last years group was, this group looks a bit better. Just due to depth and the fact that last years group had some serious garbage. But its also a group thats on the razors edge of being just as bad if the top 3 cant carry the era. Anderson drops into the 3.5 range or davies chacin don't carry 360 ip in the 4.0 range and this gets dicey quick. Expecting woodruff miley guerra suter yo wilkerson to be able to avoid sinking the staff is one thing. Expecting them to make a positive impact on the staffs era is quite another.