TJseven7

I don't want Phillips up this year unless he's looking at 120 starts. Playing every day at CS is better than plugging him into a 4th OF role. Cain yelich both start a lot of games with health. Braun/Thames take all of 1b. Even at that, unless thames is serverely limited in starts Braun will cover a lot of the yelich cain rest. Unless RF is a soft Phillips platoon there is not enough work for phillips baring injury. He can be called up for injury. Having a quality 4th OF is not worth stunting his development.

Yeah been saying this awhile. If santana isn't traded there's no reason to barely play phillips in the majors. If Braun is still seen as primarily a OF again there's very little reason to start phillips in the majors. Only way phillips is in the majors is if Braun is seeing over 80 games at 1st AND Santana is moved. Broxton and Perez could both take some AB vs LHP off phillips plate so that works out just fine either way. They'd both need those ab because without Santana this team gets a touch soft vs lhp.

A steal? Garcia gets 10 million and he hasn't been good since 2015. I figured cheaper than Chacin so I wouldn't call it a steal.

Its actually a bit more than I expected. Teams are really cracking down on aav when years are involved. Not so much on these short term deals.

Those numbers are fool's gold. Gimme Chacin any day on the same deal. Yup, another example showing teams aren't going to buy a 1 year flare. They are going to pay the body of work relative to the age. Cashner had a great season but his other 3.5 years are right around 1 war on average. No one trusts last year or expects it to continue.

I'm at the point now where I'm almost anti big trade. I'd love cobb at 60/4 and then its time to watch. What is Anderson and Cobb? Can Davies throw an entire season without his control wandering. Can he start a season well? If 2 of those 3 are 3.5 era or lower... nelson its your turn to show what this staff really ca be. It's silly in a way... I can't wait for this season to start... but I'm almost more excited to see Burnes, Woodruff (likely in the bigs), Peralta and Huira than I am to watch the big league team. Mlb teams getting better but those kids could be what finishes the build.

No, just no. Arrieta is going to do just fine. Not bad enough to even consider risking a down half season. That would be a disaster. This makes very like sense to me. Then why not sign already?

Granted I'd rather have spent part of the 7.4 mil spent on Vogt Sogard Gallardo on Lucroy instead. But he'd enter camp as the backup and have to accept that. I don't care enough about Vogts abs vs rhp to want him over lucroy.

So I missed that we lost a journeyman farm hand... shoot me. Miley's that level of bad. I don't have any issue in adding him except that there's now a chance we may actually use him.

No he said cobb or he deletes his account. Had Yelich at 95% likely. I'd guess he thinks Cobb is at about 105% likelihood.

If we have to move far enough down the chain to have to start Miley, just cancel the season lol. Really, I'm struggling to see him as an upgrade over anyone. I'd rather go Suter and Wilkerson. I'd rather trust with Guerra... and at least Gallardo has a history of quality prior to the last 2 years. He's 5th ahead of Espino... and Derby or even Perrin might be more appealing.

Does he have a chance to pitch for anyone at this point? If no, hey beating out yo guerra wilkerson isn't impossible. Makes me wonder where Arrieta Lynn Cobb are at? How long is this game of Chicken going to play out.

It also doesn't age as poorly as tuna or egg. In this market durability is a real concern.

Is it guaranteed if he doesnt make the mlb squad. I'm seeing milb contract heavily incetivised if he makes the squad. I'd rather hand 5 to wilkerson or suter and call the other the long man. I'd rather give a new arm a shot than try another milone out. And I get depth is good but dont we have enough options for 5 yet? Guerra gallardo suter wilkerson... really needed another filler guy? After letting Jungemann go?

None of his pitches grade all that well. He's developed a cutter but unsure if it all that good. His sinking fb was good 4 years ago. Change is solid. But you'd have to completely tear up his pitch selection and pick 3 to hammer. Sinking fb, cutter, change is kinda similar. I'd prefer reliever if it was cutter curve or slider and change.

Another espino. Changes nothing.

2012-2013 were nice when he threw a sinking FB 40% of the time. He has been around 30% every other year. None of his pitches get impressive results though so not sure why he's added here. Also rans like guerra gallardo suter wilkerson seem to have it covered at 5 even with no addition. Miley too? Granted it doesn't hurt but its kinda strange if they expect to add a guy like cobb or arrieta. How many Espinos do you really need?

"Anyone added needs to be a step up from Suter, and I don't think we should pay too much unless it is a significant step up." I really like Suter, but what is a significant step up? In 16 starts the guy has been just under 5 ip and 3.95 era. Is this where you expect suter to be? I see cobb as a significant step up because I dont see suter working deep in games or improving on that era. I think cobb could throw 180 ip and I think 3.6 is his floor. I prefer Suter in the pen where hes taken 20 appearances for 23.2 ip.and a 1.52 era. His funky style plays best when teams don't have a reason to focus on it in their game preparation. Teams won't spend a lot of time preparing their batters for a reliever they might see. They will prepare their batters for his funky style if he's a starter. If they don't add a starter there's an easy to make knee jerk reaction that it's got to be Suter 5th. I don't think Yo or Guerra can be counted on anymore. Yo has been terrible 2 years... Guerra is a total coin flip. I see them both as incase of emergency options. I'd probably turn to Wilkerson as the 5. He and Suter would be battling it out in camp. Either way... woodruff is getting his chance here. The question then becomes: Does Suter Wilkerson Derby ever get a real look. If we dont add a starter those 3 get a chance here. If we add a starter... with Nelson and Burnes on the way they aren't going to get another shot here to start barring trading off starters or injuries.

Very cool analysis. Every team in the league has this information and every team in the league is in the market for starting pitching to one degree or another. Moneyball changed the game from old guys with radar guns and stop watches to piles of data. Our edge is CC and DJ who have turned chicken stuff into chicken salad. Absolutely, and when you read the fangraphs articles and see that cobb is thinking in the same analytical line as our program, and that he is looking to find the reason that pitch isn't working, and that he was smart enough to scrap it to save results, it makes you think his talent isn't his strongest asset. It's his mind. To not have your out pitch at all and still pull a 3.66 is incredible. Working with Johnson and our analytics department could be very appealing to him. Teams all know this so he's not coming in at a sub market value but you also have to consider the fact that if he had the pitch last year he'd be a lot closer to Yu or at least not seen as inferior to Arrieta. If he's bought at 2017 production than 2013-2014 production then he could find the pitch and immediately become worth more than his contract. The dream of nelson healthy at his last season form. Anderson in his last 200 form, cobb with "the thing," and Davies late season (as his era is in the 3.55 range after his early season chaos 2016-2017 first 3 and 4 starts) as the 1-4 in the playoffs is very hope inspiring. 3, 3, 3, 3.5 and a strong pen... its not sherzer gio strasburg but its pretty hard to beat.

That pitches usage went from 35% in his 25-26 seasons to 14% last season. From a +15.6 run suppressor to a -5.2 run allower. The whole era spike from 2.8 era to 3.65 is right there. That 1 pitch. Ifs suck, but if anderson produces like his last 200 ip. If nelson regains his final 146 ip form. If cobb gets that pitch back. You are looking at 3 arms in the 3 era area. (2.75, 3.10, 2.85 respectively) O.O

This makes me want him more. His win pitch was gone, he wisely decreased its use to save his results and he still posted a solid era. He finds that pitch and last years numbers are his floor. There's risks in every fa arm to some degree. But if that pitch comes back, well thats a lot of upside. If you took chacins slider away he'd be a peralta level mess. Cobb lost his ace pitch and still was a 3.6? That's incredibly promising.

Which would be so laughably bad it defies logic. I'd rather see a rumor and think about how it could be done logically to serve both teams.

TBH, I think a lot of this depends on how Nelson is able to recover and if he can get back to where he was before. If that is the case then around June you could have a rotation of Nelson, Anderson, Cobb, Davies, and Chacin. That is a quality rotation. Baseball has become a bullpen game these days so you don't need a stellar rotation of multiple #1's in order to compete. If he isn't moving along as expected then I can see them trading for someone at the deadline. Teams who are underperforming could also be looking to trade guys so there could be more options come July. I love Hader and Knebel in the bullpen and I am hoping Barnes can improve and Albers is able to replicate what he did last year. Add in our improved lineup with the additions of Cain and Yelich (who also improve the defense) and we are looking at a very good team. Excited to see what the next few weeks brings! Point to add... even if we get to.the point of nelson anderson cobb davies chacin one thing that can't be overlooked is that Chacin has the best slider in baseball. If depth was in place on the starting line its very possible chacin could turn to the pen and become very similar to swarzak. Pound sliders until 3 outs are recorded. Its a big bonus to have in playoff baseball. If your 5 can flip a switch and ride 1 dominant pitch in the pen thats added value. If they add a piece via trade Chacin at 6.75 mil next year could be a cheaper better swarzak. Basically even with nelson anderson trade cobb davies there's a use for chacin built in. Woodruff or Davies would be the 2018 offseason choice if both haven't been traded in the move for another big arm.

Then why make your argument by singling out the first part of a sentence in my post, when the complete sentence read "I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense"? Mcrib... whats better a worthless guy at 43 mil or a guy worth 32 mil at 56 mil? What better for their title hopes. A worthless guy or Braun in LF? You act like Kemp is comparable to Braun. Brauns an old star who is now injury prone and likely declining. Kemp is a dead albatross. Eating salary to get something worth more than the dead money you have on the roster is a wise move. It's not like the dodgers are trying to shed payroll long term. If they think a 13 mil payroll shed is worth moving from Kemp to Braun... laugh and move along.

By what method... fa or trade?