TJseven7

Let the speculation begin ... Can you say whether said pitcher is a starter or a reliever? If reliever, I'm going with Brad Hand. Starter? Umm, I dunno. Teheran or Matt Harvey? If so, blah. Relief. Follow tea leaves. Very small talk does not acquire an impact starter or 2. If that's their goal, there's zero need for a starter. Adding 2 impact arms... oy, bye bye farm and Santana. If we leave with Burnes Peralta Phillips Huira Lutz Erceg I'll be happy enough I guess. Woodruff Ray Ortiz Dubon nice knowing ya.

"To the fantasy baseball outlook" Why do you have 2 waiver wire guys on your roster like aguilar and broxton when you have 8 guys to cover 4 spots? WW guys aren't going to be traded to fill gaps in your roster. "To phillips being the perfect 4th OF." Literally couldn't handle him worse. You take a young guy with potential and put him in the bigs to play 50 games? He could be a starter in rf. Defensively he's a war generator. You want him to keep developing and limited action in the majors wont help that. "To highheat saying EXACTLY its the OF" He supposed. Vaguely supposed. He didn't exactly say it, he speculated. All we know is that TB upped their offer and wanted Burnes. Tens of reasons that could be true and the most far fetched by far is illusion of lost leverage. "To putting players in santanas way" We traded for a GG LF. We signed a near GG CF. Santana plays RF. Santana is not being moved on the diamond, braun is. The more you look into it, Braun in RF isn't very good either. Unless we added guys to move them from dwar plus GG level positions, braun is the one who got buried. "Braun durability" Great post above pointing out the ab spread and how braun can get 132 games with ease, no long term injuries required. I've been saying roughly the same. Brauns the best hitter, braun played 135 in 2016... yeah ok but he's 34 and what path do you want to take. Aim for 140, wear him down and see if we can avoid a bad injury, and play him through minor injuries. Or manage him, and try to get superstar braun for 110 games this year with ample rest so he can stay elite, fresh, healthy, and ready for extra games in the post season. How much he could play and how much we should play him are different answers. "To thames aguilar" Both are risky. Thames is a lhb and we collect those if you haven't been paying attention. He might get 80-90 games in the current build with health. 80-90 games and ph... heavily vs rhp, hes going to be well worth 5 mil. At 95 mil payroll he's not preventing us from signing walker. I don't look to save money by removing players who are worth more than we pay them. Especially to turn around and sign someone to a fair market deal.

Don't want to deal santana. It damages the offense. 2b ss c can't make up the difference. Not sold on phillips and broxton being close enough to santana to mitigate the blow. I keep them all. Basically rule 5 stashing aguilar. He is a ph/dh. Most fragile player on the team is braun. If he goes down we have a platoon 1b with no platoon mate. We'd have broxton or phillips to call up when the injury bug hit. Perez sogard, even thames to a small degree are multi position depth guys. Utilizing that will get them some work and keep our bases covered incase of injury. If anyone is flat released or traded to keep a convential bench it should be aguilar. With a braun thames platoon we are going to thrash that spot in the order and if braun is healthy aguilar is 100% redundant. He hits lefties, braun kills lefties. We can be very happy with the production that bargain platoon gave us last year but thames/braun platoon could be devestatingly good. Even in a small 80-85 game role... thames will blast his way beyond being merely worth his contract.

If you want to trade a player and only one team is interested you have no market. You do not trade the player unless you have to in a scenerio where you have no marker. It has to be a something is better than nothing perishable svenerio or you are managing your assets horribly. You could have 4 1b and as long as there is a market you still have leverage. We want to deal Santana. Mia wanted to cut payroll. Both motivated sellers, really not that different. Did they lose leverage, nope. We actually can go into the season with aguilar Thames braun yelich cain santana on the roster. I've explained this at length. We are allowed this by being able to use options on phillips and broxton. By having perez and thames both emergency ofs. By having yelich and cain wgo can slide to cf and rf respectively. Teams will offer less, until someone wants to acquire the player. Then they'll pay the required price. Mia again stated fire sale. Quite a few offers came in. They retained leverage. You can try to lowball. That's adorable and bad business but you can try. You won't get the player you are after because another party won't lowball. He's not a car where you can get the same thing from 20 different dealerships. I've worked in sales. Perishable and non. You take a lower price when somethings value is depreciating. Closeout sales for new product, short date sales for perishables, spending window sales to capture spending dollars and win profits by drawing a large piece of a limited pool of discretionary spending. None of that applies to this scenerio. Nothing is expiring, nothing is depreciating. We haven't proceeded on an offer... thats all we know. We could have an indian salazar offer we see as fair but that might be down the list of our targets. Only 1 offer of a supposed 3 has changed. We could be waiting for a number of reasons. If I was your GM and tried take advantage of the brewers situation, I'd be the gm that didn't land the player and damaged a bridge. The team that needs to move a player will get less if there is no market. The team that wants to move a player won't take less unless they are stupid. If I had Huira ready behind altuve my price would not change on either. As long as huira has is controlled I'm asking my price. As long as I have altuve, I'm asking my price. There will be a market. You are talking about "everyone is available" logic. Would I trade shaw today for way too much...every gm would but it would require a bad gm on the other side. One who would actively take the path of most resistance and frankly these guys aren't that dumb. The only way the price changes is if the piece itself depreciates. The santana issue doesn't even hit the radar until next year or until Braun proves incapable of playing 1b. Phillips Broxton will be out of options. Then something has to move. To be completely honest, I'd rather throw broxton or aguilar away than give someone a sweetheart deal on santana. The curse of depth is that you can't keep it all, not that depth devalues your stars.

Barnes options about to get used. 4 staters in place. Gallardo Guerra Wilkerson have a 5th role shot but that's only if we dont add one. Knebel hader albers jeffress logan suter (seems to make a lot of sense as a longman as a 3rd lefty, due to his adaptable laid back mindset) We add 1 barnes is in AAA with williams and ramirez. Serious depth.

Basically saying... Santana Burnes Ray or Ortiz Ponce or Kodi or Caramona Steep. I don't want to do that. He's needing more than Quintana at that point.

Very well said and I'm in this camp for the most part. Spending on one of the top 4 depends on the budget. If its higher than we expect... take a shot. If its what we expect we can't afford one. The reason I'm confirtable with yelich trade is simply due to the fact that the arm we gave up was yamamoto. Not exactly top shelf. Trading brinson diaz harrison stings... but we also just drafted huira lutz and signed carmona. Add ray. These guys are already highly touted milb sticks. Lutz does last year again in A and he's top 100. You xan get bats up the ststem quickly. Add to it... last year 380 ip from guys above 4.8 era. 42 games worth. We probably don't want to rely on chacin woodruff gallardo/guerra/suter/wilkerson. Add a corbin, or an odorizzi or some also ran depth fa arm. I dont think we have 1 guy who is above 4.8 era at that point. Add in the fact if we keep hader woodruff ortiz peralta burnes. Some wont pan out, but some who don't could be great in the pen. Williams houser fperalta etc. You collect arms and make sure you are solid top to bottom. Then you let it take its course. If we trade multiple arms for Archer we limit our options severely and bank on one path. Archer has to ace or we likely messed up. I think trading sticks for a controllable star like yelich is far less risky than dealing arms for an "ace." Make the rotation solid and the pen strong. Dealing in davies and anderson has been huge for this franchise. Sticking with nelson could be too. Getting peralta for lind. Hader houser for fiers gomez. Collecting pitchers has gone very well. Woodruff came out of the 11th... burnes is home grown. The rest of these names and all the potential was collected. Its not easy to do. Even a Vargas or Garcia should be enough to improve the back end of this rotation vs last year. The pen is already better.

Seriously dear individual. I'm not saying I know the answer to any of this and because of that I can speculate widely. It literally could be anything... well execpt your notion of leverage. I'm simply saying your take is obtuse. I find it hard to see myself being arrogant in saying I have no idea except I know your thought on this is completely wrong. Nothing repeat nothing works the way you are pretending this is working. You act like we HAVE TO deal santana. We don't. Alex Smith was just traded for a good price. Everyone knew kc wanted to move on to mahomes and that kc is capped. Did that kill his value? Hell mia announced fire sale and they still got a good offers in every single trade. The worst was stanton because the market for him and his insane contract was small. On top of that leverage = market need. Nothing else. A team with too many pitchers doesn't start giving them away because there's always more need. Santana is the best power bat on the market. Is better than most al dhs. There's more need than options thus there is a market. Teams can't devalue him without collusion. If all interested parties collude to kill his value then success. It has literally nothing to do with yelich and cain. I'm sorry, all theories aren't valid. Yours is obtuse and wrong and doesn't play out like that in any sport. Anyone following sports knows this and yet here you are. The only time that can happen and an asset can be devalued in the manner you are stating is when there's a deadline approaching and there's no market for an expiring contract. We could literally sign altuve for 8 years and watch huira explode in AAA and no one would get a discount on him because he's blocked. It just doesn't work that way. You unfortunately have stumbled upon one explanation that is not possible. Simply put... even if the TB gm decide to use you notion to a T. He's a moron who won't end up with Santana. Another team not playing games will. Demand favors the brewers becayse they hold a coveted asset. No matter how he fits.

Reasons tb asked for more: Saw yelich trade and wanted more than their offer Saw darvish saying la and figures more teams will get involved Saw mke upped their offer to mia wanted theirs upped too Cold feet on dealing archer But its santana leverage. Only logical explanation. Which is dumb to even try. So mke jumps back in on yu and blows tb a kiss. Are the other offers not there or does stearns want yu 1 archer 2 and the other deals are farther down the list and will be dealt with once his prizes aren't his.

Wow. I realize it’s hard to admit you’re wrong but I think you’re taking this to a new level. My “boast” was that perhaps his value decreased. If you believe what HighHeat19 said that’s exactly what happened. I’m not looking for recognition or anything. But what I am looking for is that posters like you stop being so close minded and shooting down others’ opinions so fast because you disagree with them. Back when we had our little back and forth you essentially stated as fact that Santana’s value wasn’t decreasing and that Stearns wasn’t running out of options to move him. If you don’t want to take Highheats posts as fact then fine. But are you really going to double down on your closed mindedness and call my opinion “nonsensical” when other well informed posters have suggested it is exactly what is happening? Did you actually read what he said? “After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. ”. So they all of a sudden decided they wanted more for Archer and it had absolutely nothing to do with the Brewers acquiring the additional outfielders? I guess we interpreted his post quite differently. And yes trying and accomplishing are different. But that has nothing to do with the argument. If TB decided they wanted more for Santana then common sense dictates that don’t value him as highly as they did before. At this point I’m guessing Santana stays with the Brewers. Just my gut feeling. I actually wouldn’t mind them trying to move Aguilar or Thames at this point. However, their pickups of Yelich and Cain MAY HAVE impeded that. Apparently, the Brewers had offers for Cleveland, Tampa and one more team on the table. After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. That's your proof? Speculation is your proof? Yeah ok... break that arm patting yourself on the back for that... ha. I'd guess it has as much to do with a team wanting a max offer to part with archer than anything. Remember how we upped our offer for Yelich right before they agreed? Maybe tb thought our offer was a low offer and they could get more just like miami. You don't know anything more from what he said than before. There are a multitude of reasons that explain what he said, but you want to read it how you want to see it so go ahead, man its a shame we don't have a leverage expert like you teaching stearns. I'll stick with reality.

Darvish la, bumps cubs to arrieta, mn to lynn, us to cobb. Yelich cain santana rest roughky 35 games total in healthy seasons. All rest can be covered with braun in left. Cain 10 in rf, yelich 25 in cf, braun 35 in lf. Braun at 115 games is no stretch either way with proper rest. Which we can easily afford him. Leaves 82 starts for thames vs rhp. Braun santana > broxton phillips thames aguilar. Braun for 115 games keeps his demand low. Thames costs 5mil... in 82 games at 1b he can still be a value and can be a great ph/dh option when on the bench. Thames also was beat up by a full mlb season. I dont see the problem. I see a way to keep guys fresh, healthy, at their best, in spilts that give them a great opportunity to succeed. Being able to stash broxton and phillips leaves a bench of vogt aguilar 1 starter sogard perez. If on OF goes down... broxton or phillips come up. It's a swiss army bench aided by 2 very good options optioned so they can get regular work.

I think you are half right here. He doesn't fear Ks. But at the same time its become apparent in their numbers that you can't have high k guys everywhere. Broxton and villar are replacement level dudes who K a ton. Shaw domingo aren't a problem k wise but the team composition crosses a statistical point of saturation with guys like broxton and villar. Adding yelich and cain helps correct that. I don't think ks are necessarily bad... but at a certain team wide rate I feel zero value outs stifle an offense in a seismic fashion. Last year I did a write up about 10 ks and 3 walks. It's sample size poor and rudimentary but there's a strong correlation. We are making moves to put ourselves on the + side of that line more often. The astros did the same entering 2017. Analytics are still developing.

You and me both. I was told that even suggesting it was the equivalent of me thinking I’m smarter than David Stearns. Trying and accomplishing are very different things. Trying it is stupid and stearns told them appropriately to pound sand. Good luck with cargo fellas. Not to mention his comment was Archer. You can just as easily assume they just wanted more because its archer. But hey if it fits your nonsensical narrative boast away.

Correct. Which is why I'm certain if the right trade doesn't come along for Santana it will happen because it has to now. Personel hasn't required it in the last 3 years. Sure does now.

"Let it be known that Brewer's presumably top 30 is not most major league's FO's top 30. Across MLB, Corbin Burnes is #1, Keston Hiura #2 and Lutz and Ray jocking for #3 and Freddy Peralta #4. (May differ from team to team but consensus) Phillips is now considered MLB talent. Keon Broxton is being shopped for a Rookie league or A ball "home run". Similar to trading for Freddy Peralta at the stage the Brewers did. As I said earlier, Hader is next to impossible of being traded. Brewer's are high on Brett Phillips." 1. Glad Ray's value is holding, cuz I dont see it. 2. Would love a ticket or 2 for Broxton. Keep cycling. Supak 2 tickets for Rogers is a continued big win. 3. Phillips... that just makes me happy. 2b SS C are less than what I want offensively to go from Santana to Phillips but I want that day to come eventually. 4. Wasn't there a guy on here who pointed out a but of a huff puff about Melvin sticking his nose in the Cordell Ortiz Brinson deal when scouts wanted a lower ranked bigger quantity offer. I see the Burnes comment and just assume that TB made a Burnes instead of Ortiz play. Find it telling that cordell brinson are gone and the cheese (ortiz) stands alone. They could be 3 pieces our current FO never really wanted.

Right. Phillips can stay in cs. Is broxton really a concern? 2 c, braun thames, villar sogard, arcia, shaw perez, yelich cain santana broxton fits just fine. The no sense reverts back to phillips staying in the minors and a choice between broxton and aguilar? That's minor details.

There might not be much news left. If teams are trolling out slander against Santana you just keep him. If he repeats last year his value doesnt go down even with less control. One good years a fluke, 2 is a pattern. He goes 275/350 with 30 bombs he's going to get more interest not less. If Braun to 1b is a thing. The offense is stacked. With cain yelich braun/thames shaw santana you can leave 2b as is and be fine with villar arcia pina and their platoon mates. Pina vogt braun thames villar sogard arcia shaw pina yelich cain santana broxton leave phillips in cs is entirely possible. Aguilar would be news in being cut or traded. If we stack 1-5 that strong we can easily afford to give villar and broxton another shot. Pen at knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress suter is all but set. Anderson davies chacin woodruff... gallardo guerra wilkerson leaves 1 spot until nelson returns. You'd like to have 1 more but it could be as simple as corbin odorizzi, any of the big arms or even scratch and dent options still out there. We are at roughly 95 mil. So far they've invested wisely. Yelich is special. Cains been worth 35mil per year over his last few years. They feel he's not only getting older, but wiser. They believe 16 per is a value and 2 more 5 war seasons would make them right. Plus he's plus D and low K. Everything about him fits the philosophy alter. Then chacin cheap. Gallardo logan and albers super cheap. 2 big splashes or not. They are being very frugal and specifically targeted. This could be where the offseason ends up. Basically we were pretty decent last year. Broxton was bad. As is lost 2 months of walker. Thames will play less and aguilar will be gone. In their place is cain and yelich. That more than offsets walker. By a lot. The pen was bad til hader jeffress swarzak. Hader jeffress back for a full year. Logan over drake. Albers replaces hughes. Say we lose 100ip from nelson and gain 40-60 from anderson. We cut out 257 ip from garza guerra willy espino. Thats now woodruff chacin gallardo/wilkerson. Even down nelson its hard to imagine the back end of this rotation being worse, if not picking up a lot of slack, vs ladt years crap. We are already, as is, a lot better than any point last year. There almost has to be at least a move or two coming. It might be signing a pitcher or trading for one, but I can't imagine they're finished. And the roster right now quite honestly makes zero sense. Something has to be brewing. As previously stated, it's probably all being held up by Darvish. Need him to do something, then some dominoes can start to fall. If the Brewers miss out on the 4 starters, you'd think a trade would almost have to happen. How does the roster make no sense?

Yes. We added a relief pitcher named Matt Albers. Doesn't change the value of susac 1 bit.

As is gallardo and Guerra should be throwing no more than 130 ip combined. Barnes jeffress sure. But barnes is the 6th arm now. Not set up. Jeffress just needs to be the guy he was in mke last year and he's fine. 1 corbin odorizzi type add and you can absolutely ignore gallardo guerra as concerns. Even as is I dont see anything close to 380 inning over 4.8. Helps protect regressions.

Cain Yelich in... 230 total k, high bb/obp players. Looks like we are full on making our astros BBvK shift. Broxton alone strikes out close to what those 2 do combined. As it sits currently aguilar loses his ab and thames loses some. This lessens Ks. 2b... remains to be seen.

I got killed for saying he was horrible and unnecessary to have. Something must have changed since then.

As for pitching... We logged 380.1 ip last year by guys who had an era above 4.8. Do we have 1 on our current roster? 1 guy who you expect to be higher than 4.8 era? That's 42 games worth of innings. Even as is... anderson davies chacin woodruff... gallardo guerra wilkerson Knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress suter... with williams ramirez kicking it in AAA. We can regress in areas as long as the bottom isnt dreadful to the same level. Not to mention I did a rumidial charting of k per game bb per game and the magic number for this team was 10k or less, 3 or more bb. In those game regardless of all variables we were 10 games over 500 and this was after the post all star break implosion where we were 2 games over 500 I believe. We improved the defense, cut ks, added bbs. This teams lacking some elite arm talent, no doubt about it. Howver this teams getting much more solid across the board which makes it harder and harder to beat. It almost feels attrition based. Not going to dominate often, but will make teams beat you game after game. With metrics and stability in our favor.

Our analytics >>>> their analytics Hated the squad last year. Hated the rotation, hated santana thames. Still do. Our defense is already a lot better and all of our pitchers will get worse. It's kinda funny. They have articles pointing to chacin and gallardo being arms who can break the metrics, then value them poorly. Sure last year Anderson was amazing (and suter picked up where he left off for a bit). Sure nelson did something no one expected. Davies defied logic again. Knebel was a monster. To assume every upswing is a fluke comes off as a bitter rival fans take. (I know they don't have bias) They've had articles from years ago that stated certain numbers pointed to santana having a chance to explode up to star level but then the wins projection doesn't acknowledge that. I'm not saying its bs on their part. They even believe their numbers are low on mke. However, on paper stearns is building the team he wants to build, and on the same paper FG is seeing numbers that don't make sense to them. I'm just going to guess our analytics group is ahead of them by a bit.

Why should Cain bat 5? The whole point is to get guys on base for the hr hitters. You dont want cain behind yelich braun thames and shaw. All the people pushing guys like villar and arcia up the order are mussing the point. We had our obp guys like thames santana last year bat up the order but they were also great hr hitters. Now we have cain and yelich who hit some hr but gdt on base at a high clip. You 1-2 that and fill in accordingly behind it with our power.

There might not be much news left. If teams are trolling out slander against Santana you just keep him. If he repeats last year his value doesnt go down even with less control. One good years a fluke, 2 is a pattern. He goes 275/350 with 30 bombs he's going to get more interest not less. If Braun to 1b is a thing. The offense is stacked. With cain yelich braun/thames shaw santana you can leave 2b as is and be fine with villar arcia pina and their platoon mates. Pina vogt braun thames villar sogard arcia shaw pina yelich cain santana broxton leave phillips in cs is entirely possible. Aguilar would be news in being cut or traded. If we stack 1-5 that strong we can easily afford to give villar and broxton another shot. Pen at knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress suter is all but set. Anderson davies chacin woodruff... gallardo guerra wilkerson leaves 1 spot until nelson returns. You'd like to have 1 more but it could be as simple as corbin odorizzi, any of the big arms or even scratch and dent options still out there. We are at roughly 95 mil. So far they've invested wisely. Yelich is special. Cains been worth 35mil per year over his last few years. They feel he's not only getting older, but wiser. They believe 16 per is a value and 2 more 5 war seasons would make them right. Plus he's plus D and low K. Everything about him fits the philosophy alter. Then chacin cheap. Gallardo logan and albers super cheap. 2 big splashes or not. They are being very frugal and specifically targeted. This could be where the offseason ends up. Basically we were pretty decent last year. Broxton was bad. As is lost 2 months of walker. Thames will play less and aguilar will be gone. In their place is cain and yelich. That more than offsets walker. By a lot. The pen was bad til hader jeffress swarzak. Hader jeffress back for a full year. Logan over drake. Albers replaces hughes. Say we lose 100ip from nelson and gain 40-60 from anderson. We cut out 257 ip from garza guerra willy espino. Thats now woodruff chacin gallardo/wilkerson. Even down nelson its hard to imagine the back end of this rotation being worse, if not picking up a lot of slack, vs ladt years crap. We are already, as is, a lot better than any point last year.