Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (For Real)
Jopal78 replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
My bad, it was Nate82. Nate82..Brewcrew82... you see the similarity. Anyways, Hiura couldn't get off the bench on a mediocre team in '22, obviously his adjustments whatever they were, didn't cure what's wrong with him. But more importantly, Oakland is just not in a place in the success cycle where it makes any sense for them to trade pre-arbitration eligible pitching for hitters, especially flawed ones like Hiura. As with any team in the midst of a long rebuild, I'm sure they would trade Puk in the right deal, but it won't be for Hiura and certainly not straight up. As for Treinen it's simple, if he's worth ten million as a free agent (as you propose) why wouldn't the Dodgers simply exercise their below market club option for 8 million and either trade him or keep him. Either way they would come out better than they would if they declined his option. -
jay87shot’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
Jopal78 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I like the creativity.... but with the Hader trade the Brewers just learned in '22 it is extremely difficult to "shuffle the deck" trading away a star player and get better at the same time. The weak spot is there is not away for the Brewers to get better that involves trading an indisputable ace, top of the rotation starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes. No matter what comes out of Stearns's mouth at the media podium: trading Burnes = rebuilding. Moreover, the Brewers owner isn't a dope, when they don't have the horses to compete payroll gets taken down to the bone. ( see '16, '`17 et al). -
Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (For Real)
Jopal78 replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Treinen has a club option for '23 for 8 million. Not likely the Dodgers decline an 8 million dollar option if Treinen is worth 10 million as a free agent. As mentioned to you before in other threads, the Athletics wouldn't trade Puk for Hiura straight up. They are not in a position to win '23 so there is not much reason for them to take on salary (Hiura in arb, Puk pre-arb) and then trade away the player with the most team control remaining in the process. -
But the bar is set a bit higher than that isn't it? Hader wasn't just a "major contributor" to the Brewers, he's arguably the best relief pitcher in the game, the best left handed reliever, a perennial All-Star with multiple sets of hardware as the best reliever in his league. Without a doubt, the return for Hader in the short run blew up in Stearns' face like a loaded cigar. Given the initial outcome, for this trade to ever be anything more than a thick black mark on Stearns' permanent record they probably need one if not both of Ruiz and Gasser to become more than just "major contributors".
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Good question, I would imagine they probably didn't sell as much as other teams just because how saturated the Brewers market for team gear already is. They have a home white jersey, the home pinstripes, the alternate blue jersey, the travelling greys and the city connect uniform all coming out in the last two years. Hats are a bit better with only three: the all blue cap, the blue cap with the yellow panel, and the city connect cap. That's not including the one time stuff like the Cervecaros line (do they still sell those)? But I suppose, the old maxim "give the people what they want" is why there are so many different uniform jerseys and hats available for sale.
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Abreu is getting older, but he did have a .378 OBP this past season, and his exit velocity and hard hit rate remained at his career norms. I think its a safe bet he would be the better hitter than Renfroe in '23 (not to mention moving away from the all or nothing approach that too many of the Brewers hitters had last year). As for long term, the dream is over one way or the other after '24. So if, like Lorenzo Cain in '18, Abreu still delivered in '23 when it mattered, I could be okay with the possibility diminished returns thereafter especially since they'll most likely be retooling by the deadline in '24 anyways (IMO they will never let Burnes and Woodruff walk away for nothing).
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However, because the A's have organizational depth does not mean they have to trade Sean Murphy. Further, over half the teams in the league would want to add a 3.5 WAR catcher with three years of control remaining, so demand would be brisk. Would you trade Robert Gasser for Sean Murphy? Sal Frelick for Sean Murphy? That's probably what the A's would be looking for--premium major league ready talent.
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I don't know, Jose Abreu even at 35 is a better hitter than Renfroe is. Therefore, it is nearly a given that Jose Abreu + whomever would play RF (Frelick, Mitchell, etc.) would be > Hunter Renfroe alone. One way the Brewers can almost certainly improve their team is by moving on from Renfroe (where they have tremendous organizational depth) and using his salary as the main component to land Abreu for 1B/DH where they have a need. (That is of course, if they do not have the resources to sign Abreu outright).
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I guess the point is: if you add up those projected salaries it comes to approx. 80 million dollars. Yelich, Peralta and Ashby will add another 30+ million. That's now 110 million in payroll, which gets into an area which the Brewers do not exceed very often ('19 and '22 both years coming off a division title), this is especially so when the fans didn't come out for them as much as in the past. Of course they're not going to keep everyone that is arbitration eligible. Is the difference between Renfroe (.790-.800 OPS) and what one of their rookie outfielders would produce worth the 10.3 million dollar difference in salary? Time will tell, I do know it has all the markings of a classic Brewers move: ie. creating payroll flexibility, creating opportunity for a younger player, etc. etc.
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“He is a good player” correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s also an opinion repeated as fact. Time will tell, but the Brewers are a tight fisted organization and they have a mediocre player in Renfroe where the system says they need to pay him a sizable amount of cash next year. Based on history, I doubt it happens, but we’ll see.
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No, Renfroe is not a top 50-70 player in MLB. He’s a .300/.490 player. I get it homers are sexy, and Hunter looks good compared to the mostly below average hitters the Brewers fielded in ‘22. But literally Domingo Santana and Renfroe have similar career OPS and Santana is playing in Japan. That’s the reality of what Renfroe is, if you love counting stats and being lord amongst the mediocre, he’s your guy. But 11+ million for a flawed player Is getting steep. As for Caratini, he made 2 million dollars in ‘22. If you think he’s worth 1.5 million he won’t be with Milwaukee next year. They would non-tender as there is virtually no precedent for offering a pay cut and going to a arbitration hearing.
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I know he hit 30 bombs, but I just don’t see them paying 11+ million in ‘23 for Renfroe. Caratini hard to see back at that price too.
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After working on it in all of spring training '18 Ryan Braun made a grand total of 12 starts in the major leagues at first base. To the non-major league player it might seem easy to simply move your worst fielder to first. But when the Brewers have tried it with Braun, and later Hiura, it hasn't really worked out. I kind of doubt they move Yelich to DH either-as the manager has shown he likes to rotate players through the DH spot trying to keep everyone fresh.
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I meant "journeyman" in the context that Chafin has been with 4 different clubs already and will be looking for #5 in year 10 of his career. Chafin is a fine relief pitcher, but the Brewers can bring back Boxberger and Bush for less financial commitment than Chafin or any other late inning free agent reliever so I doubt we see the Brewers go that way, even though they do need more talent in the bullpen.
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I thought the City Connect uniforms were a gimmick to sell more merchandise, but the players must've liked them because they seemingly wore them a lot. Your re-design simply takes the City Connect jersey back to what the Brewers actually wore as a road uniform a generation ago.
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Well, they traded Hader the best left handed reliever in the game over salary concerns. They’d have been better off keeping him if they then go out and give 8 million in a multi-year dew to a journeyman reliever in his 30s. Moreover, it’s not the Brewers style. They shop the bargain bin for relief pitchers like Boxberger, etc. Almost every time they tried to make a splash with a bullpen arm it blew up in their face: Gagne, Riske, Hawkins, Matt Albers, etc.
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Chafin made 6.5 million dollars in 2022, had a 2.83 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP. Do you think he's going to take a paycut in 2023, if not he won't be in Milwaukee? Most likely Chafin will be seeking a multi-year deal for 7-8 million AAV.
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You may want to take a deeper dive into the stats, before affixing labels to Suter. He had a rough April, but when the calendar turned to May he was a terrific relief pitcher. 60 2/3 innings, a WHIP of 1.25, a strike out to walk ratio of better than 2:1, he throws left handed and can go multiple innings. Frankly, the team needs pitchers who can get outs in the bullpen and keep them in games and hold leads. Suter does that, and if he was cut loose he'd have a job tomorrow if he wanted. Moreover, the Brewers will have a stack of hard throwers for bullpen duty in '23: Strzelecki, Gott, Cousins, Topa with Bush and Boxberger if they want them, and even Ashby floating around too. Given the high velocity pitchers they already have, I doubt they are willing to dip into the late inning free agent market much, not to mention they've been pretty successful in finding late inning relievers in the bargain bin: Boxberger, Strickland, David Phelps, Dan Jennings, etc.
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The Cardinal starters have allowed 7 fewer runs than the Brewers (388-395). Talent wise one would say they're underwhelming but results wise, they weren't underwhelming St. Louis starting pitchers were really good. Plus, the Cardinals were by far better offensively and defensively (the Cardinals starting pithcers allowed 17 unearned runs compared to the 41 allowed by Milwaukee--tied with LAD as most in the majors) than Milwaukee. I agree St. Louis is not beyond the reach of the '23 Brewers because pitching wins games and the Brewers have some really talented starting pitchers, but the sum of the parts is better in St. Louis right now and the Brewers have to find away to get better offensively, defensively and in the bullpen, a tall task.
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That's a fools game. There were posters here who denigrated the Cardinals pitching talent back in June, yet they allowed the 4th fewest runs and their offense scored the 3rd most runs in the NL. Outside of the COVID year, they haven't won fewer than 90 games since '18 and they will be returning all their best talent. Arenado most likely returns, along with Goldschmidt, Edman, Donovan, Helsley, Mikolas. Plus Jordan Montgomery, Nootbaar, Gallegos and I'd bet Wainwright is probably back too. No question they will be the favorites to win the NL Central in '23.
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Have at it, and let us know...
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Do you just make this stuff up? Puk was healthy all year this year and ends the season healthy. Moreover, Puk struck out more than a batter per inning, allowed less than a hit per inning and was 3:1 in the strike out to walk ratio, and perhaps most importantly remains pre-arbitration eligible. Hiura, if he's not non-tendered, is going to make at least 1.9 million next year (Hiura's numbers are almost identical to Tellez's, and Rowdy got 1.9 million his first time through arbitration). That's already at least double Puk's salary for next year, not to mention Hiura is really only useful against RHP so he doesn't even fill a hole in another team's roster as they'll likely have to platoon him. No doubt, Hiura brings a nice slugging percentage, but it is also literally all he brings. He doesn't hit left handed pitching, he struggles to make contact, he doesn't really get on base, and he's a poor defender. How do you market a guy like that?
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I agree with you, but the interesting thing Stearns has kind of a poor history at the trade deadline. In '17 they technically were on the periphery and he added Swarzak who pitched well. In '18 he added Moustakas who was ok in '18, but Jonathan Schoop was a disaster, Soria didn't impress either and was bad in the post season. In '19 he picked up Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles who both went on nice little rolls for them. In '21 it was a disaster in Daniel Norris and Jon Curtiss, then Eduardo Escobar who was good. Then in '22 there was Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush, the first two disasters and the 3rd a disappointment. Players he acquired at the deadline that improved the team at the time: Swarzak, Pomeranz, Lyles, Escobar, maybe Moustakas (5) Players who didn't make a difference or were a bust: Schoop, Soria, Norris, Curtiss, Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush (7).
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If the A's were going to trade AJ Puk, they would get better offers than Keston Hiura. Puk has had some arm injuries, but is pre-arbitration eligible and has late inning stuff. Meanwhile, there are always hitters like Hiura, who will slug .450 and struggle to make contact, readily available on cut rate short term contracts every offseason. At this point, another organization would have to really love Keston's game to give the Brewers much of anything for him. If in fact he is in danger of being non-tendered by Milwaukee, the return would be next to nothing like when the Brewers acquired Leo Crawford from LA for Corey Knebel.
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Their both probably going to get non-tendered! Why did Boston move on from Renfroe after a .315/.501 campaign? They thought they were better off reacquiring washed up JBJ, taking on the 10 million dollars in additional salary and getting the two low level minor leaguers from the Brewers. Same deal with Tampa Bay in '20. They non-tendered Renfroe with 3! years of control remaining because they determined the money he would cost over those three years would be better spent elsewhere. Yet in 2022, Renfroe goes out puts up his career line, stands to get a raise to around 10 million dollars, and now its lunacy for one of the tightest fisted teams in the NL is going to decide they could better spend that 10 million improving their club in other areas? Sure anything can happen (including Renfroe coming back next year), there just isn't much improvement to be had from this offensive group based on their career marks, and trading an impact pitcher seemingly isn't going to help them win in '22 either and probably would signal a larger rebuild. Thus, it seems more likely they will free up as much cash as they can (non-tender Renfroe, Hiura, Bush, maybe Caratini, decline the option on Boxberger, Wong, let McCutchen, Narvaez, Peterson, Rogers walk as free agents--probably close to 45 million dollars in payroll), try to add an impact bat in free agency and some quality bullpen arms, then play a lot of young players who have room for improvement to their game.
