Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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I'm surprised Vogelbach isn't in there at first base. Jace Peterson has been ice cold this month (56 ABs): .196/ .211/.268. -
The Braves are a good team. The Phillies have a negative run differential. The Phillies are a sub .500 team getting lucky. Zach Wheeler is the best pitcher from either team, and at least according to FIP Aaron Nola is the 2nd starting best pitcher from either team. The Phillies are a more dangerous team in a short series because of those two pitchers. It would not be the same being down a couple of runs early to Charlie Morton or Max Fried.
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What is interesting to keep in mind is some of those players continued to have have nice careers following their terrible season you referenced: Billy Spiers: .281/.366/.391 from '94-2001 Ronnie Belliard: .278/.336/.425 from 2003-2010 Marquis Grissom: .268/.302/.444 from 2000-2005 Ted Simmons: .262/.334/.387 from 1985-1988 Those players all had a pretty good track record before having a terrible season, and then rebounded. Thus there is some precedent for JBJ and we can be hopeful for 2022.
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Minor League OF Roster Crunch
Jopal78 replied to TheeAirbender's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Facts are facts though. Lutz has K'd 404 times in 1265 career minor league at bats. His career slugging percentage in the minor leagues is .427. A minor league outfielder who strikes out 32% of the time and has below average power doesn't have a path to the major leagues. No harm in being patient, but certainly a disappointing career so far for a first round pick. -
Stearns mentioned for Met's Presidents job
Jopal78 replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Executives like stability. Nobody knows what Cohen will be like as an owner. The Brewers owner has had 2 GMs during his tenure and the longest tenured manager in the NL. I’m sure that stability is huge -
AJ Preller just had empty cardboard boxes delivered to his office as Padres now behind Cards, Reds and Phillies for 2nd wild card.
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I'd rather see the Padres miss the playoffs, they have the most talent on paper. The Reds are going nowhere with that bullpen. Since August 1st, St. Louis is 16-7 against teams with losing records (.695), they are 6-7 against teams with a winning record (4.61). There's nothing magical, other than a schedule where down the stretch they have played more games against bad teams than good ones. Outside of Wainwright the Cardinals don't have a starting pitcher with a FIP below 4.30, and only two bullpen arms who are better than mediocre (Gallegos and Cabrera) the pitching staff isn't one with the horses to make a deep post season run.
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Look at the stat sheet from 2012. He was every bit as good, even after the positive test, as he was in 2011 when he won the MVP and was using. What gets lost in the Braun story is the thumb injury in 2013 and 2014. As I recall, he hurt his thumb in 2013 and tried to play through it while experiencing a major power outage. He missed a month on the DL, came back reaggravated the thumb, was shut down and placed on the DL. It was then that he cut a deal with MLB and served a suspension when he was not liekly to play anyways due to the injury. He again played through the thumb injury in 2014 then had the nerves frozen in his thumb. After that surgery he was 31 and hit .279/.341/.501 for the remainder of his career. Sure maybe not the .900+ OPS player he was at 25, but neither was Mickey Mantle. Pound for pound the best hitter the Brewers had since I started following the team in 1988.
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There's 4.1 million reasons Ray will survive the winter. As long as he has minor league options there's no reason for the Brewers to do anything but wait. Moreover, their outfield depth will be thin with the likely departure of Avi Garcia at the conclusion of this season. David Dahl already had a 2.7 million contract this year and therefore will most likely be non-tendered. Cain and JBJ's contracts expire following the 2022 season, and there's nobody else currently in AAA knocking on the door for a major league outfield job. Plus, the 40 man roster is going to have at least 9 vacancies, so there's no rush to open a spot there either: Daniel Norris, Strickland, Boxberger, Escobar, Brett Anderson, Manny Pina, Luke Maile, Hoby Milner, Yardley,
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It also has to be tough in Baltimore when 4 of the top 6 teams in the American League are all in the same division as the Orioles (TB .629, BOS .563, NYY .561 and TOR .551). I'm sure its tough to market a product that is going to be inferior to the competition almost every night of the week.
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I'm sure in the 1990s there are plenty of weeknight games in September where the Brewers had under 10,000 fans. However, the team hasn't really stacked up multiple seasons of terrible play since Miller Park opened. In September of 2003 there was an announced attendance of 8,700 (which of course is the number of tickets sold, not how many came through the turnstiles). There were also a couple of 10,000 on weeknights in September of that year.
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I don’t know what “make noise” means. They have Flaherty, Dakota Hudson should be back from injury. Wainwright is still terrific. Then there’s Mikolas, Kim, Martinez (still just 30 but possibly an impending free agent). They’ve used 12 different starters this year due to injury and still have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. If you think with a healthy staff of their preferred starters they’ll merely “make noise” but not be good enough to contend in the Central; then I guess we can agree to disagree.
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It's fun to be able to look down at the Cardinals for a change; but they have more talent than you suggest. Goldschmidt is arguably the best 1B in the division. Arrenado is the best at 3B in the division and Tyler O'Neill (4.1 war) is the best LF in the division. Tommy Edman is a 3.1 war player this year, Dylan Carlson and Bader are equally good players. The Cardinals are where they are because of a ton of injuries to their pitching staff. St. Louis has received a total of 18 starts out of their #1 and #2 pitchers this year. Additionally, Kim has been on the IL twice this year, and Carlos Martinez suffered a season ending injury in early July. They had to trade for Jon Lester and JA Happ at the deadline just to have some pitchers to eat innings. Yet despite putting a rotation together in 2021 with band aids and prayers, they're 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card with with 3 games remaining against both Cincinnati and San Diego and 4 against Los Angeles. It is a small chance, but they do control their own destiny for the 2nd wild card right now.
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And that's where I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. If you're evaluating a trade while completely excluding (or simply noting him as a "plus") the acquisition in said trade of a young, controlled starting pitcher who has performed exceptionally well this year and may well end up as the most valuable piece of the trade in the end, I'm not sure you're evaluating the trade fairly. Then again I also referenced Zach Davies as a plus, and he lead the 2020 Padres in innings and quality starts and was 2nd on the staff in terms of WHIP and FIP. Can agree or disagree with the premise its fine, but at least read carefully.
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Clearly, that's the Brewers desired outcome. But, what I take issue with here is your attempt to categorize a draft pick as something related to the performance/expectations for Luis Urias. At best, it's a stretch. More likely, it's completely off base. The Brewers likely drafted Black because of his potential, his position on the draft board, and his signability/bonus demands relative to their remaining draft bonus pool. Trying to lump that draft pick into anything related to Urias or the current construct of the Major League is almost certainly off-base. Then again its not really my point. Rather it is Urias is a player without a home except at third base where his current offensive production and defense render him ordinary. He's blocked long-term at shortstop with Adames and he's blocked long term at second base with Wong, and even after the expiration of Wong's contract (be that in one or two years) there is the potential that there will be other players competing for the job at 2nd base. As that ties in to the larger discussion, this trade was sort of a miss for the Brewers from a strategic roster building perspective as they traded a starting outfielder plus away for an infielder plus. Then, since making the trade they've signed two starting outfielders as free agents and have acquired an entire new group of infielders.
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And what percentage of those guys actually do? You're right, MLB should put every eligible amateur's name on a ping pong ball and simply have a lottery to assign amateur talent amongst the teams. In all seriousness, in answer to your facetious question, it depends on the year. It is a fact, however that a player has exponentially greater odds of playing in the major leagues if they were drafted in the first round than in any subsequent round. Whether Tyler Black plays 2B for Milwaukee at some point in the future is truly unknown, but by selecting him in the first round and making him a millionaire, I think its safe to say it is the Brewers intent.
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I would bet a bajillion dollars that their draft picks are completely independent of anything related to the MLB roster, mostly because that's a horrendous way to draft. Yeah, I doubt a team drafts for need at the major league level. But it’s a true story the Brewers drafted a collegiate 2nd basemen in the first round and gave him a $2.2 million dollar bonus. I would bet a bajillion dollars when a team gives a multimillion dollar bonus to a first round pick they anticipate the guy will play in the major leagues.
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I think from a pure talent perspective it’s fine. The Brewers didn’t get significantly better, but Urias and Lauer are nice players to have. However from a strategy perspective it’s a loss for Milwaukee. They traded a starting outfielder to get Urias, then proceeded to use previous payroll space signing free agent outfielders in consecutive seasons. Then the Brewers followed that up by making multi year commitments to Adames and Wong rendering Urias either a 3B where his bat and defense are ordinary or a utility player. They also spent one of their first round picks in 2021 on a college 2B who could be knocking to n the door as Wong’s contract expired.
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Of course, a Gold Glove Centerfielder with a 771 will start in the major leagues for a decade. A 3B or UTIL with a .772 not so much. The Brewers didn’t get pantsed in this trade as it initially appeared but it will probably always be a push to a slight loss for the Brewers depending upon on Lauer’s future production. Because while Urias was blocked in San Diego by Machado, Tatis and Croenenworth; Grisham became a starter for Milwaukee upon making his major league debut.
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If the Giants got him on a waiver claim, I’m a bit surprised he made it to San Francisco since they’re in the opposite league and have the best record.
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predictions for september roster expansion
Jopal78 replied to djoctagone's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
neither are on the 40-man roster. whom do you remove? Yardley and Lopes are definitely #39 and #40 on the roster. Pablo Lopez is also redundant once Escobar is healthy. -
It is strange to me that Kapler said he thinks Cueto will start tonight, but all indications are he was placed on the 10 day IL yesterday. The Giants called up two players before yesterday’s game to take the place of Alex Wood and Cueto as well.
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Darn shame if they blow a good start from Burnes now and in a bullpen game for the Giants
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It’s only a matter of time before Baez is back with the Cubs anyways. By the end of this year he will have had a sub .300 OBP over his last 700+ plate appearances. He has played his way out of the top tier pay day and would be a perfect fit to soak up the applause and local media plaudits in Chicago while the team loses 90 games.
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Avi Garcia not extended QO - now a Free Agent 11/5/21
Jopal78 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don’t think Garcia would accept a QO, but generally having a QO attached to a player hurts their value as a free agent because most teams lose a draft luck to sign such a player. In Garcia’s case there are a litany of similar free agent to be outfielders that maybe are a shade less productive but won’t have a QO and may be cheaper to sign. I’m sure his agent will tell him there’s a good chance his market may not develop which could lead to him considering any QO from the Brewers
